Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 5 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 5 updates.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | NYG | TEN | CAR | BUF | GB | TB | MIA | DET | JAX | ATL | PHI | NO | NE | |||
Home Team: | WASH | IND | BAL | HOU | CHI | PIT | OAK | NYJ | SD | MIN | SF | DAL | KC | |||
Favorite: | WASH | IND | BAL | HOU | CHI | PIT | MIA | DET | SD | ATL | SF | NO | NE | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -7.5 | -4.5 | -1.5 | -13.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | Year | ||||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | WASH | IND | BAL | HOU | GB | TB | MIA | DET | SD | ATL | PHI | NO | KC | 48 | 10 | 30 |
Dave Larkin | NYG | IND | CAR | HOU | GB | PIT | MIA | NYJ | SD | MIN | PHI | NO | KC | 38 | 9 | 31 |
Matt Bitonti | NYG | IND | BAL | HOU | GB | PIT | OAK | DET | JAX | ATL | PHI | DAL | KC | 45 | 9 | 31 |
Will Grant | WASH | IND | BAL | BUF | GB | PIT | OAK | DET | SD | ATL | PHI | DAL | KC | 37 | 8 | 28 |
Alessandro Miglio | WASH | IND | BAL | HOU | GB | PIT | MIA | DET | JAX | ATL | PHI | NO | NE | 45 | 7 | 28 |
Dan Hindery | NYG | IND | CAR | HOU | CHI | TB | MIA | NYJ | JAX | ATL | PHI | DAL | NE | 42 | 7 | 36 |
Jeff Haseley | NYG | TEN | CAR | BUF | CHI | PIT | OAK | DET | SD | MIN | PHI | DAL | KC | 48 | 7 | 29 |
Phil Alexander | NYG | IND | CAR | BUF | GB | TB | MIA | NYJ | JAX | ATL | PHI | DAL | NE | 43 | 7 | 41 |
Jeff Pasquino | WASH | IND | BAL | BUF | CHI | PIT | OAK | DET | SD | ATL | PHI | NO | KC | 47 | 6 | 29 |
Aaron Rudnicki | NYG | IND | CAR | BUF | GB | PIT | OAK | DET | JAX | ATL | PHI | DAL | NE | 44 | 6 | 29 |
James Brimacombe | WASH | IND | CAR | BUF | GB | PIT | MIA | DET | JAX | ATL | PHI | NO | KC | 42 | 6 | 29 |
Jason Wood | WASH | IND | CAR | BUF | GB | PIT | MIA | DET | JAX | ATL | PHI | NO | KC | 39 | 6 | 30 |
John Lee | WASH | TEN | BAL | BUF | CHI | TB | OAK | DET | SD | ATL | PHI | NO | KC | 44 | 6 | 33 |
Mark Wimer | WASH | IND | CAR | BUF | GB | PIT | MIA | DET | SD | ATL | SF | NO | KC | 46 | 6 | 28 |
Maurile Tremblay | WASH | IND | CAR | BUF | GB | TB | OAK | DET | SD | ATL | PHI | NO | NE | 43 | 6 | 27 |
Andy Hicks | WASH | TEN | CAR | BUF | GB | TB | OAK | NYJ | JAX | ATL | PHI | DAL | KC | 43 | 5 | 26 |
Clayton Gray | WASH | IND | BAL | BUF | GB | PIT | OAK | NYJ | SD | ATL | PHI | NO | NE | 51 | 5 | 26 |
Steve Holloway | WASH | IND | CAR | HOU | CHI | PIT | MIA | DET | JAX | ATL | PHI | NO | NE | 41 | 5 | 24 |
Andrew Garda | NYG | IND | CAR | BUF | CHI | TB | OAK | DET | JAX | ATL | SF | NO | NE | 60 | 4 | 22 |
Bear Heiser | WASH | IND | CAR | BUF | CHI | PIT | MIA | NYJ | JAX | ATL | PHI | DAL | NE | 48 | 4 | 27 |
Danny Tuccitto | WASH | TEN | CAR | BUF | CHI | PIT | OAK | DET | SD | ATL | SF | NO | KC | 49 | 3 | 25 |
Justin Bonnema finished in first for the week with 10 correct picks, topping Dave Larkin and Matt Bitonti by one selection. Will Grant added eight right calls, and four more staffers finished the week at 7-6. Overall it was a rough week with the staff below 50% (132 / 273, 48.4%), thanks to some upsets by the Giants, Bills and Buccaneers. Overall the group is hovering near 50% (609/1281, 47.5%) with Phil Alexander (41), Dan Hindery (36) and John Lee (33) the Top 3 in the group so far on the young season.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | MIN | CLE | CHI | HOU | PIT | BAL | BUF | TB | ATL | STL | AZ | NYJ | KC | CIN | SEA | |
Home Team: | GB | TEN | CAR | DAL | JAX | INDY | DET | NO | NYG | PHI | DEN | SD | SF | NE | WASH | |
Favorite: | GB | TEN | CAR | DAL | PIT | INDY | DET | NO | NYG | PHI | DEN | SD | SF | NE | SEA | |
Point Spread: | -9.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -10.5 | -4.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -7.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | ||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | GB | CLE | CHI | DAL | PIT | INDY | DET | TB | ATL | PHI | AZ | SD | SF | CIN | SEA | 47 |
Aaron Rudnicki | GB | CLE | CHI | DAL | JAX | INDY | BUF | TB | ATL | PHI | DEN | NYJ | SF | CIN | SEA | 48 |
Alessandro Miglio | GB | TEN | CAR | HOU | JAX | INDY | BUF | NO | ATL | PHI | DEN | SD | KC | NE | SEA | 48 |
Andrew Garda | MIN | CLE | CHI | DAL | PIT | INDY | DET | TB | NYG | PHI | AZ | NYJ | SF | CIN | SEA | 60 |
Andy Hicks | MIN | TEN | CAR | DAL | PIT | INDY | BUF | TB | ATL | STL | AZ | NYJ | KC | CIN | SEA | 47 |
Bear Heiser | GB | CLE | CHI | DAL | PIT | INDY | DET | TB | NYG | PHI | AZ | SD | KC | CIN | SEA | 58 |
Clayton Gray | GB | CLE | CAR | DAL | JAX | INDY | DET | NO | ATL | PHI | DEN | SD | SF | NE | SEA | 46 |
Dan Hindery | GB | CLE | CHI | DAL | JAX | INDY | BUF | NO | NYG | PHI | DEN | NYJ | KC | CIN | SEA | 54 |
Dave Larkin | MIN | CLE | CHI | HOU | PIT | BAL | DET | TB | NYG | STL | DEN | SD | KC | NE | SEA | 40 |
James Brimacombe | GB | CLE | CHI | DAL | PIT | INDY | DET | NO | ATL | PHI | DEN | NYJ | KC | CIN | SEA | 47 |
Jeff Haseley | MIN | TEN | CHI | DAL | PIT | BAL | BUF | NO | ATL | PHI | AZ | SD | KC | CIN | SEA | 40 |
John Lee | GB | CLE | CHI | HOU | JAX | INDY | DET | NO | ATL | STL | DEN | NYJ | SF | CIN | SEA | 42 |
Justin Bonnema | GB | TEN | CHI | DAL | PIT | INDY | DET | TB | ATL | PHI | DEN | SD | SF | CIN | SEA | 48 |
Mark Wimer | MIN | CLE | CHI | DAL | PIT | INDY | DET | NO | NYG | PHI | AZ | SD | KC | CIN | WASH | 55 |
Matt Bitonti | MIN | CLE | CHI | DAL | PIT | INDY | DET | TB | NYG | STL | AZ | NYJ | KC | CIN | SEA | 60 |
Maurile Tremblay | MIN | TEN | CHI | HOU | PIT | BAL | BUF | TB | ATL | STL | AZ | NYJ | KC | CIN | WASH | 43 |
Phil Alexander | GB | TEN | CAR | HOU | JAX | BAL | DET | NO | ATL | PHI | DEN | NYJ | SF | NE | SEA | 38 |
Steve Holloway | GB | CLE | CHI | HOU | PIT | INDY | DET | NO | NYG | PHI | AZ | SD | KC | CIN | SEA | 39 |
Will Grant | GB | CLE | CHI | DAL | JAX | INDY | DET | TB | ATL | PHI | DEN | SD | KC | CIN | SEA | 48 |
Danny Tuccitto | ||||||||||||||||
Jason Wood |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With four weeks behind us, you would think that there would be some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – but you would never know it from looking at the 19 sets of picks this week. No team was picked unanimously, and the closest were Seattle (17 of 19 staff), Indianapolis, Chicago, New England (15 of 19) and Philadelphia (14 of 19). Las Vegas would love these sets of picks on New Orleans / Tampa Bay, Denver / Arizona and San Diego / Jets as the choices were split almost exactly in half for all these contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's still quite early in the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.