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Geno Smith's rookie season is coming to a close. After 16 weeks of the 2013 season, we are still unsure what to make of the former West Virginia prospect. Smith will enter the final game of the season with a stat line that reads 230/416, 55.3%, 2,856 yards, 12 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, 5 rushing touchdowns and 8 fumbles.
Statistically, Smith has had a terrible season. However, considering the situation he landed in, that was no real surprise. While he can't be excused for his struggles during his first season, he did show off a lot of potential to go with all of his mistakes.
Rookie quarterbacks who start in this league often have volatile production. Deciphering the mental side of the game, adjusting to the pace and simply showing off your physical talent can be very tough for some veterans, so it's even tougher on raw prospects. Smith definitely struggled with the mental side of the game at times and he took his time to adjust initially, but there is no questioning his physical ability to throw the ball.
Even though he had five rushing touchdowns and 322 rushing yards, Smith proved himself to be a passer rather than a running quarterback. He would be best suited to being a pocket-passer rather than the hybrid that the Jets coaching staff wanted him to be. It must be said that Smith didn't help himself with so many bad throws that led to interceptions, but he was more inconsistent than bad.
Against the Cleveland Browns in Week 15, he had arguably his best game of the season.
The Browns defense isn't the best in the NFL, but it has a lot of individual talent and Ray Horton is considered one of the most exciting defensive coordinators in the NFL. Horton's defenses typically excel at making the quarterback speed up his process. He uses lots of pressure and aggressive coverage on the back-end to get the ball out of the quarterback's hands quickly. For younger quarterbacks, this should be a nightmare, but Smith finished the game with a stat line reading 20/36, 55.6%, 214 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 48 rushing yards, 1 touchdown and 0 fumbles.
On the very first play of the game for the Jets offense, they used the Browns' aggressive nature against them. The Jets set up at their own 25-yard line with three receivers bunched to the left, one to the right and a back to the left of Smith in the shotgun. The Browns show off a 4-3 look with the linebackers shifted to the left side of the offense. Notably, every single one of the Browns defenders are within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and the linebackers move towards the line of scrimmage before the snap.
The Jets are running a screen play to the right side. While screens don't require exceptionally difficult passes, they do have to be executed properly under pressure. As soon as Smith gets the ball, he begins to drop towards his own goal line. Intially he takes shorter, slower steps that look like any normal dropback. While doing this, he keeps his eyes downfield to where his receivers have released into routes.
Smith's actions draw the Browns' linebackers towards him. Jabaal Sheard is unblocked on the outside, because his blocker is actually the eventual receiver for the screen, but both inside linebackers decide to come forward too because of Smith's actions.
At the exact time that his receiver moves into the flat, Smith begins to widen his stride and angle towards the sideline. This gives him a better angle to throw the ball to his receiver, while the rushers are already out of position. Those who are in a position to recover have blockers in front of them. Smith throws a perfect pass to his back who has a huge amount of space to run into. As the first image shows, the Browns were playing man coverage on the back-end, so there are no defensive backs in place to immediately stop the receiver.
The play was negated for a holding penalty, but that doesn't take away from the quarterback's execution independent of his teammates.
With Horton, pressure will always be there, but so will deception. As a former assistant coach to Pittsbrugh Steelers hall of fame coach and player Dick LeBeau, it's no surprise that he looks to blitz on third down. LeBeau's defense has historically been very good against less experienced quarterbacks and Horton's defense is built on the same principles.
Later on the first drive of the game, Smith faced a third and nine when Horton sent his first disguised blitz after the quarterback. Although Smith recognizes this blitz very quickly, it must also be noted that the Browns didn't hide it very well. Before the snap the cornerback in the slot is leaning forward, hinting that he is blitzing, while the linebacker to that side of the field is already running towards the sideline.
Instead of panicking and running away from the blitz, Smith stands small and looks into the eye of it. This makes sense because he has a mismatch in behind and there is going to be more space. However, importantly, Smith also realizes that his first receiver isn't open and isn't going to be open. He doesn't panic. He holds the ball anticipating the other receiver that will come free regardless of the incoming pass rush.
Jeremy Kerley is running a shallow in route behind the slot receiver who is running down the seam. Kerley won't be past the first down line when he catches the ball, but he is a dangerous YAC receiver running into space. Smith perfectly times his drop before locating Kerley and throwing the ball to him. He is unfortunate that the ball is tipped at the line of scrimmage because the defensive tackle makes an excellent play on the ball.
Although the pass wasn't completed, Smith deserves a lot of credit for correctly diagnosing the play and being poised under incoming pressure.
Handling pressure and not panicking is a vital aspect of playing quarterback on the professional level. If Smith wants to be a pocket-passer, he has to consistently make these kinds of plays. That didn't happen from week-to-week of his rookie season, but he did repeatedly show off the intelligence needed to succeed at this level.
Often the smartest play seems simple. On this play, Smith does something that Colin Kaepernick routinely struggles with and something many of the best backups in the league never do. The Jets have two tight ends to the left of the line of scrimmage with a running back on that side of Smith in the shotgun. They motion one receiver to the right side of the formation to put two together. This drags one defender across the field, leaving eight defenders in the box.
The Jets run play-action, which gives Smith some time in the pocket. He surveys the right side of the field where his two receivers are at the top of his drop, before he steps up into the pocket. Smith stays with the receivers to the right side before settling again at a shallower point behind the line of scrimmage.
As the pocket collapses around Smith, he comes off the receivers and finds his tight end running a shallow crossing route. With a quick release and an accurate pass, he finds his underneath receiver for what eventually turns into a first down reception. This poise and patience is exactly how the offense thrives. Offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg brought the tight end underneath the receivers to that side to make Smith's read easier, but he still has to diagnose the coverage downfield and bring his eyes away from their initial assignment.
While this was a smart play, the very next snap showed off Smith's lack of experience and maybe a lack of aggressiveness that is born out of his poor play this season.
One of Smith's strengths this season has been his ability to throw a perfect deep pass. While the consistency hasn't always been there, he does have a big arm with the control to hit receivers in stride over defensive backs. Smith never appeared to see the receiver come free on this play, but he should have known where he would be and worked back to him once the safety committed to the right side of the field.
Instead of taking a shot, Smith scrambled back to the right side of the field before throwing the ball away. It wasn't a turnover, but it was still a negative play.
That negative play preceded Smith's most impressive play of the game. His offense was backed up against their own goal line on third and 10. He had just thrown an impressive deep pass to Jeremy Kerley down the sideline, but the receiver couldn't adjust properly to the pass that landed on his outside shoulder. No matter, Smith responded with an even better play.
Smith does three things on this play that are exceptionally impressive.
1. At the bottom of his drop he is focused on Jeremy Kerley who is working from the slot to his left. Kerley runs a deep in curl route, but he is not open. As Smith steps forward in the pocket he is still looking at Kerley, but he moves off of his first option at that point. He holds the ball in his own end zone, but he isn't at danger of being sacked for a safety as he moves his eyes out wide to his second option, Santonio Holmes.
2. Smith is never in danger of being sacked because he has good protection initially and he then manipulates the pocket with his movement. At the top of his drop, he steps forward when Kerley isn't open. However, he stays on his toes and is aware of the defender coming free to his left. Instead of continuing forward in the pocket, Smith bounces backwards off his planted foot before landing in a perfect base to throw the ball wide to Santonio Holmes. This movement neutralizes the pass rush and aids his blocker's attempt to seal off the pass rusher.
3. After doing all of the pre-throw aspects of this play perfectly, Smith throws an astoundingly impressive pass across his body. Holmes is running a comeback route that creates very little separation against the defender who is in man coverage. Smith flights the ball perfectly and times it so that it lands in a spot where only Holmes has a chance to catch the ball. Holmes comes up with the excellent reception for a first down, but the throw is what made it possible.
This play had many elements of danger to it, but none of those elements were ever truly in effect because of how he managed each individual aspect of the play. This is the kind of play that should get Jets fans excited about Smith moving forward.
Does he need to prove his consistency? Most definitely. Was he less consistent than most rookie quarterbacks? Maybe. Can he improve with time? Certainly. Will he? We simply don't know.
We always want answers, especially in the NFL, but answers for Geno Smith won't come this season. He has too much development to undergo. During the offseason he will need to improve and that improvement will need to continue during next season also. Fortunately for Smith, he and his teammates probably played the Jets out of drafting another quarterback this offseason. The likelihood is that Smith will be the quarterback, unless a veteran is brought in to compete with him.
It's easy to be intimidated by Geno Smith's failures and his statistics, but ignoring his on field potential could be a major mistake.