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The New England Patriots escped a close loss to the Cleveland Browns this week and they lost Rob Gronkowski for the season. Gronkowski tore his ACL after taking a perfectly legal hit to his knee from safety T.J. Ward. At this stage, there must be questions about how long Gronkowski will be able to play football. For the short-term however, the Patriots need to find out where his production goes. Nobody can replace Gronkowski and they played for a long stretch without him already this season, but the team is different now.
When Gronkowski was out, the Patriots were also without Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola for stretches. Both Vereen and Amendola are healthy now.
Like Gronkowski, Vereen is a matchup nightmare for defenses. He's not as big of a problem, but he is a very good runner and a mismatch receiver unless covered by a defensive back. Vereen isn't Darren Sproles, but he is a natural receiver who can run routes down the field and line up in different spots on the field. That is something that Vereen did on Sunday against the Browns.
He was targeted 15 times in total, catching 12 for 153 receiving yards. He dropped one pass and couldn't make difficult receptions on two bad passes from Tom Brady. Five targets came on plays when Vereen was targeted wide open in the flat or on dump-offs underneath off coverage. Those plays came primarily because the Browns were playing with a lead. On those plays, Vereen evaded one tackle and had 38 yards for just one first down.
Four of Vereen's targets came on screen plays. His first went for seven yards on second aand eight. He had some space to work in, but was taken down by the first tackler. On third and 18 soon after, Vereen dropped a perfect pass that landed in his chest. He would have had space to get down the field and even though he may not have gotten the first down, he could have added at least 10 yards. On third and 20, Vereen caught a 15 yard screen pass on third and 18. He aggressively ran through one tackle, but the contact from that attempted tackle eventually saw him fall to the ground.
Vereen's best screen play came on first and 10 early in the fourth quarter. There was one key to the play that didn't appear in any other screen pass: His blockers were out in front.
Vereen is lined up in the backfield on his own. The Browns are in their nickel package with just six players in the box. The Patriots run play-action to the left with Vereen, but the Browns don't bite on it.
Brady initially looks to the right as he runs a lazy bootleg to the right side of the offense. While he is doing that, the Browns defense is dropping off into zone coverage. The Browns rush only four players, with left tackle Nate Solder working back towards Brady against the right defensive end. Solder actually draws the defensive end upfield to take him away from the eventual screen pass. Two other offensive linemen break into space ahead of Vereen who is waiting for Brady to throw him the ball behind the line of scrimmage.
This is where Vereen is at his best. He understands how to manipulate the defenders in relation to his blocking. He initially attacks the gap between his two blockers. That draws both defenders to the inside shoulders of their respective blockers, making it easier for his teammates to create an outside running lane As soon as both blockers initiate contact with the defenders, Vereen takes off towards the sideline at speed.
From there, Vereen accelerates down the sideline before stepping out of bounds for a big gain and a first down.
As a receiver, Vereen isn't very elusive. He is an excellent runner who understands how to set up his blocking, makes good decisions and accelerates very quickly through gaps that appear. That allows him to be effective in every facet of the game, but he doesn't have the same ability as a Darren Sproles, Giovani Bernard or Andre Ellington in the open field.
Where Vereen's value lies is his ability to run routes from different areas of the field. Of his remaining six targets, three came out of the backfield and three came from the position of a wide receiver.
Coming out of the backfield, he shows an ability to run a route that Sproles has made deadly in recent years with the New Orleans Saints. Twice he beat a linebacker in space and he should have had two first downs with it, but Brady missed him once after he had cleanly beat the initial defender. Even though Vereen isn't exceptionally quick, he is quick enough in these areas to cause major headaches for anyone trying to cover him in man coverage.
Twice Vereen looked like a natural receiver running routes from a position out wide, but it was a big play down the left side of the field that really bloated his statistics on the day.
Vereen's 50 yard reception tells us more about the flaws in Ray Horton's defense than the ability of the young running back. He is lined up wide to the bottom of the screen against Craig Robertson, a linebacker. Robertson moved in motion with Vereen after he initially lined up in the backfield. At the snap, Robertson overplays the inside and gives Vereen a clean route down the sideline. From there, it's a simple straight-line race between he and the linebacker.
Defensive back Joe Haden eventually catches Vereen to prevent the touchdown.
Because of the offense he plays in, and because of Gronkowski's injury, Vereen should always be a productive receiving option out of the backfield. However, he isn't as much of a matchup nightmare as the Browns made him appear to be and his real value will come if he is given more carries in the running game. What he lacks in elusiveness as a receiver he makes up for as a very impressive runner. Vision and burst allow him to make plays between the tackles when given an opportunity.
Potential for injuries is always going to be a worry, but if the dimunitive offensive weapon can prove himself a reliable, consistent option both as a receiver and running the ball over the coming weeks, he could be well worth the risk moving into 2014.
Bobby Rainey's Big Run
Bobby Rainey had 22 attempts for 127 yards and a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. However, very few will feel satisfied with his performance. Rainey broke off a huge touchdown run with his very first touch early in the first quarter, giving him a stat line of 1 attempt, 80 yards and a touchdown. That means he only managed 47 yards on his 21 other attempts during the game.
While Rainey peaked at the start of the game and fell to the very bottom of it from that point on, he should be celebrated for his big play rather than condemned for his other struggles. That is because most of his struggles during the rest of the game were a product of the Bills' defensive front seven taking over against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' blocking. Rainey rarely had anywhere to go as Mike Pettine's defense swarmed to him and his displays so far this season should give him enough equity to survive such a string of unproductive carries.
Even though he was released by the Baltimore Ravens and bounced off of the Cleveland Browns' roster very quickly this year, Rainey has looked like one of the best backs in the league if you ignore the smaller sample size. Sample size is important, but there are times when sheer talent must take precedence. This is one of those times.
The Buccaneers initially line up with a fullback in front of Rainey, but they motion him from that position to the right side of the offensive line in the position of a tight end. After that, they shift their left wide receiver down into the slot so that he is on the outside shoulder of the tight end to the left. This creates some confusion for the Bills, who are playing man coverage, but Rainey remains alone in the backfield.
Importantly, the wide receiver who initially shifted into the slot runs behind the line of scrimmage towards the opposite side of the field. He quickly looks to find a defender to block, but cornerback Stephon Gilmore cannot see that. Gilmore is in man coverage with the receiver so he continues to run across the field and pays no attention to the developing running play behind the line of scrimmage. This clears a lane on the outside.
Rainey attacks the right side of his center initially, red zone, which is the wrong lane to run through. However, he understands this and he is only attacking that area to affect Kiko Alonso on the second level. Rainey attacks the inside of the line of scrimmage to tempt Alonso infield. This gives him a clearer route to the end zone through the green area. Alonso bites on the fake and immediately jumps inside.
Alonso is an impressive athlete, so he is almost able to cover his mistake, but Rainey is too fast through the hole and he swats away his attempted tackle with a stiff arm. Once in the open field, nobody from behind is going to catch him. One defender does meet him just before the goal line, as he worked his way across the field, but Rainey saw him early and was able to fake an inside run before skipping past his outside shoulder for the touchdown.
What has been most impressive about Rainey since he became a starter for the Buccaneers is his awareness of how to set up his runs. He has been a little inconsistent seeing every running lane at times, but it doesn't have a major impact on his production because when he does see the right lane he knows exactly how to set it up and he has all the speed to take advantage of any potential big play.
It's clear that Bobby Rainey not only belongs in this league as a starter, but he could also wind up being one of the better players in the NFL at his position. Longevity is the only test that really stands in his way at this stage of his career.
For eight straight weeks, Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kendall Wright had at least 69 yards receiving in every game he played. Wright racked up 648 yards and one touchdown on 51 receptions during those games. Since the beginning of the season, Wright has looked uncoverable working underneath and on intermediate routes. His quickness and precise route running combined with his ability to make difficult receptions and get big gains after the catch kept his production consistent even through a quarterback change in Tennessee.
Wright has 73 receptions on the season and 857 yards. Those numbers include just two receptions for 17 yards against the Denver Broncos in Week 14.
This kind of performance isn't a complete shock. Because the Titans have a variety of receivers to work with and because they are using their backup quarterback, Wright's production was always going to be fragile at times. Trusting his talent to overcome those challenges may have been a mistake, but in order to keep perspective on Wright's ability as a player it's important to understand exactly why Wright didn't produce on Sunday.
On the Titans' very first passing attempt of the game, he was double-teamed on a crossing route after play-action. The Titans halved the field to take away Wright's space and Fitzpatrick was forced to throw the abll underneath to Visanthe Shiancoe. On the second pass attempt of the game, Fitzpatrick quickly went to Justin Hunter. That converted a third down, before he found Hunter down the sideline for a huge play. Wright was covered underneath as he ran a quick out to the shorter side of the field.
Hunter was Fitzpatrick's favorite target on the day. In the first quarter, he targeted him three times in the first quarter on just four passing attempts. However, there other aspects of the game that took the ball out of Wright's hands. A sack close to the end of the first quarter showed off a number of the issues that Wright faced.
On third and 10, Wright is lined up in the slot. Entering Week 14, Wright had more third down catches than any other receiver in the NFL. Because the Titans have a lot of ground to make up, the Broncos are happy to only rush three and drop eight defenders into coverage.
As they did throughout the game, the Broncos didn't leave much space over the middle of the field for Wright to work in. This was a luxury that the Broncos could afford because they were able to get pressure without blitzing and because Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't a quarterback who can extend plays without dropping his eyes.
Fitzpatrick had a number of quick throws that were incomplete and one was intercepted. Meanwhile, Wright ran a number of routes that didn't give him a chance to get the football such as this one down the seam. Instead of repeatedly running crossing routes or giving him option routes from the slot like he had previously had so much success on, Wright ran too many deep routes and curl routes that played perfectly into the Broncos' coverage.
Furthermore, the Titans rotated their receivers during the game. Wright wasn't on the field for six of Fitzpatrick's passing attempts and for two of the plays he was on the field Fitzpatrick threw screen passes to other players. Incredibly, Wright only saw one screen pass in the whole game. He is arguably the most dangerous receiver in the league on screen plays, so that was a major mistake from the coaching staff.
On a play that was negated by a penalty in the second quarter, Wright couldn't make a tough reception on a crossing route against tight coverage. He couldn't make a difficult reception in the fourth quarter also, when Fitzpatrick underthrew a pass to the flat.
That leaves Wright with one four yard reception on a screen play when his blocking never got to the immediate defenders and one deep out for 13 yards. It appeared that the Titans had made half-time adjustments because Wright's 13 yard reception was Fitzpatrick's very first pass attempt of the third quarter. However, the quarterback immediately threw an interception after that play and the offense reverted to what it had been during the first half.
Late in the fourth quarter, on Fitzpatrick's final attempt of the game, Wright was wide open on a slant route over the middle of the field.
Wright is lined up in the slot to the left. There is a defensive back lined up directly over him, but at the snap he blitzes the quarterback. Fitzpatrick never looks to his left after the snap, so he has no idea that Wright is going to be wide open on a quick slant route for what would have been a first down.
Even though Fitzpatrick never looks to his left, he still drifts out of the pocket into the right flat as he looks down the right sideline. A smarter, more poised quarterback would have stood tall in the pocket and delivered the ball early to Wright running that slant route into space. An accurate pass was all but certain to give the Titans a first down, while Wright's ability after the catch could have given him a big play.
With Fitzpatrick under center and a somewhat misguided coaching staff in Tennessee, the potential for these kinds of games from Wright will exist for the remainder of the season. However, that shouldn't affect his stock moving forward unless the Titans inexplicably decide to keep Fitzpatrick as their starter in 2014.
Josh Gordon's Biggest Test
The most interesting matchup of the weekend was Josh Gordon versus Aqib Talib and Bill Belichick. Gordon had over 200 yards in each of his previous outings against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars, while Talib, with the aid of Belichick's approach, appeared to be the toughest cornerback that Gordon would have faced all season long.
Gordon finished the game with seven receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown, so by any measure he passed the test in front of him. The question with Gordon is how sustainable his production is. He and Alshon Jeffery have been tearing up opposing secondaries this season, but both players are still developing all-around games. Just being a physical freak isn't enough to put you on the level of Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green and the other elite receivers in the NFL.
In terms of talent, there is nothing to question with Gordon. He can outrun anyone, he has the size to tower over anyone and the natural catching ability to consistently make expected catches and often make tougher catches. The query with Gordon is how he runs routes and how he stands up to additional attention from the defense. As a rookie, he failed miserably against better cornerbacks because he couldn't run enough routes. The better cornerbacks in the NFL won't fear his ability to run down the field or fight for jump balls, because they are all physically gifted enough and aggressive enough to fight him for those passes.
Talib isn't an elite cornerback, but he had enough traits to suggest that he was going to be a tough matchup for Gordon. Talib's long arms and physical nature allowed him to have a very strong outing against Jimmy Graham. Graham, a tight end, didn't have the same speed as Gordon though, which ultimately proved crucial.
Unsurprisingly, Gordon didn't have a single reception in the first quarter of the game. This was expected because Belichick often focuses on the opposition's primary weapon and schemes to take them out of the game. Surprisingly, Belichick didn't scheme anything special for Gordon. Jason Campbell simply didn't pull the trigger or find Gordon when he beat Talib in single coverage. Yes, single coverage.
Belichick put Talib in single coverage and shaded a deep safety to the opposite side of the field early on against the Browns.
In the second quarter, Gordon got his first target on the very first play, but he couldn't bring the pass in before he went out of bounds. The Patriots dropped into a zone and Gordon ran a shallow crossing route just past the line of scrimmage. With five minutes left in the second quarter, Gordon caught his second target as Talib gave him a free release and he simply ran away from the defensive back on a crossing route. Gordon was open again for his next target, as Talib was caught in traffic when he ran another shallow crossing route. The pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage though.
On third and 10, still in the second quarter, Gordon caught a four yard curl route by pushing Talib off of him within five yards. For his final target in the second quarter, Gordon beat Talib with his release as the defensive back overplayed the sideline before Gordon ran another shallow crossing route. He gained 18 yards on third and short.
In the third quarter, Gordon had his biggest reception of the day.
Belichick is considered a defensive genius and he has proven himself as one over his lengthy career. However, it's very difficult to understand his approach in this game. The Browns' offense is Josh Gordon. They don't have a running game and their other receiving options are effective, but not capable of carrying quarterback Jason Campbell. This play epitomized the poor gameplan from Belichick against the Browns. He repeatedly put Talib in single coverage against Gordon with plenty of space for the receiver to work in.
The Patriots initially come out showing Cover-2 with their safeties, but when the Browns motion a tight end across the formation to the left side of the defense, both safeties rotate to that side of the field. The defense as a whole shifts further away from Gordon and Talib who are lined up to the top of the screen.
As soon as Campbell takes the football from under center, he is looking directly at Gordon. The Patriots are sending a blitz that leaves every single member of their secondary in single coverage. Talib is alone with Gordon. His technique is terrible here as he isn't far enough infield to show Gordon the sideine the way he is attempted to with the direction of his feet. Instead, Gordon gets a free release to run a slant route into space.
Even at this early point in the play, Talib has no chance of recovering.
When Gordon catches the ball, he is level with the deepest safety and he already has position on Talib to run away from him. In a straight-line sprint, Talib has no chance of catching Gordon. Gordon's athleticism is his greatest strength, so when given a free release as often as he was by Talib, this kind of play was always inevitable.
Gordon pulls away from the defense without even getting past second gear seemingly. He high-steps the final few yards into the end zone. Presuming that there was no assignment mistakes from the Patriots players on the field, this play reflects terribly on Bill Belichick. The aggressive nature of the play was a result of the Patriots being down by nine points late in the third quarter, but there's a fine line between aggression and recklessness. This play-call and the gameplan in general with Gordon was very reckless.
In the fourth quarter, Gordon caught another shallow crossing route against zone coverage before drawing a holding penalty down the sideline against Talib. Another shallow crossing route gave him three yards on second and 10, before he ran an end-around for 34 yards. That end-around showed off Gordon's athleticism as he appeared to fully accelerate for the first time with the football. While his athleticism is what allows him to dominate lesser defensive backs, something that Talib proved himself to be, it was the concentration he showed on the final play of the game that really stood out.
On third and 17 at the Patriots 40 with four minutes to go, the Browns were trying to run out the clock. The Patriots showed a two-deep shell at the snap, with Talib lined up directly over Gordon to the bottom of the formation.
Gordon initially slips coming out of his stance, but because Talib drops off instead of aggressively trying to jam him he has plenty of time to recover. After Gordon regains his balance, he runs a deep in route. His route is rounded and allows Talib to stick tightly to his back, but he uses his size to fend him off from a low Campbell pass.
As the ball arrives, Gordon reaches out to it instead of letting it into his chest. This makes it a very difficult reception, but his concentration and strength allows him to maintain possession of the ball even as it hits the ground.
This was Josh Gordon's toughest test of the season. He clearly passed the test with relative ease, but it was made much easier for him by Belichick. Whether Belichick saw something else in the offense he wanted to attack or he trusted Talib too much and underestimated Gordon, he definitely made the wrong decision. Gordon deserves the Dez Bryant-Calvin Johnson treatment at this point. Until that happens, he will continue to overwhelm any inferior defensive backs that he faces.