Dreaming can be what makes life fun. Dreams are experiences that aren't real, but we understand that so we break all the boundaries that come with reality. Nick Foles right now is living a reality that is too unrealistic to even be considered a dream. The young quarterback is sharing the stage with Peyton Manning as the only quarterback in NFL history to start a season with 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He threw three touchdowns in his most recent outing against arguably the best defense in the league of the Arizona Cardinals.
Somewhat of a divide has been created by Foles' output this season. Many have bought into him as a franchise quarterback. Others question the legitimacy of his contributions to his production and claim he is solely riding a lucky streak.
From what I've watched of Foles this season, he is neither. The Eagles would be foolish to go all in with Foles right now in my opinion, but it would also be foolish to suggest that what he has done to this point is solely based on his fortune. On Sunday against the Cardinals, he had the perfect opportunity to convince me that he was a franchise quarterback.
Instead of doing that, he helped to convince me that Chip Kelly's offense will be around for a very long time in the NFL.
There are many different ways of categorizing quarterbacks. One simple way is to break down the 32 starters into those who you build an offense around, those who can service the talent around them and those who handicap what you can do. Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson are examples of quarterbacks you can build around, Chad Henne, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jason Campbell are examples of players who will hold your offense back, while Nick Foles joins such players as Alex Smith, Mike Glennon and Joe Flacco in the category of players who can service their teammates.
That is where Foles stands now, in his second season, so he still has time to move towards being a franchise quarterback or towards being remembered as a bad quarterback who enjoyed one hot streak.
As much as we prefer to ignore the impact of luck in sports, it can have major affects on teams and individuals for extended periods. It's how some players such as Fitzpatrick, Tim Tebow and even Flacco peak for extended periods before suffering notable drop-offs that take away from their relevance for prolonged periods.
On Sunday, against one of the best defenses in the league, Foles showed off some impressive plays, some unimpressive plays, but an overriding element of luck. He finished the game with a stat line that read 21/34, 237 yards, three touchdowns, 0 interceptions. However, when you look at the tape he could easily have had four turnovers and his statistical production wasn't reflective of his overall level of play.
A Carson Palmer fumble gave the Eagles a very short field for their first touchdown of the game.
This touchdown points out the beauty of Chip Kelly's creativity on offense rather than Foles' ability as a quarterback. The Eagles come out with two tight ends to the right side and LeSean McCoy next to Foles in the backfield. After the snap, Foles fakes a pitch to McCoy who is moving to the left with his offensive line. This draws the eyes of Tyrann Mathieu to the football.
Mathieu is playing safety in line with the left goal post. He is initially in perfect position to cover Zach Ertz, the tight end who is breaking into a route, but he is drawn out of position by the play-fake.
After the fake to McCoy, Foles spins around and runs towards the opposite sideline. Ertz is wide open in the back of the end zone at this point and he is the first receiver that the quarterback looks to. Foles slightly underthrows the pass to Ertz, but he was so open that Mathieu had no chance to make a play on the ball even after the tight end adjusted.
In the second quarter, Foles flicked an easy pass to Brent Celek in the flat for a touchdown with his offense set up at the one yard line. A debatable pass interference flag against the Cardinals moved the offense into that position initially, but more importantly Patrick Peterson dropped an interception in the end zone earlier in the drive when Foles threw the ball up for grabs between he and DeSean Jackson.
Foles probably should have been intercepted four times throughout the game, but he was fortunate with defensive back drops on three occasions and one play that was negated for a harsh penalty that didn't really affect the play. A few errant throws isn't a real issue in the grand scheme of a football game, but for a few reasons Foles' errant throws can't be ignored in this game. Four potential interceptions that would be almost exclusively the quarterback's responsibility is not acceptable, while the degree of difficulty of the throws that Foles was making wasn't high at all.
Much like Alex Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs has done for the majority of this season, Foles didn't throw the ball downfield against the Cardinals.
The above chart recognises accurate and inaccurate throws. It's not a reflection of incompletions and receptions. 10 of his attempts went behind the line of scrimmage, with two of those being terrible overthrows. One of those overthrows was so bad that it sailed high over Riley Cooper's head and was ultimately ruled as an aborted football. Foles threw 21 accurate passes and 15 inaccurate passes(one pass was officially listed as a fumble and another was negated for penalty). Seven of his accurate throws went more than 10 yards downfield, but an incredible seven were off target.
All of that hints at the quality of the pieces around Foles and the excellent design of Kelly's offense.
Incredibly, considering how he entered the season, Riley Cooper has developed into one of the better receivers in the NFL and Foles' best target this season. His athleticism overwhelmed the Cardinals' defensive backs at times and his ability to catch in a variety of different body contortions made Foles' life much easier. With LeSean McCoy as a major threat in the backfield, DeSean Jackson making plays on screen passes and the team's big bodied tight ends creating matchup problems over the middle of the field, it's easy to see how Foles is making big plays happen.
That's not to take away too much from what he has done. He did make some very smart plays on Sunday, with two impressive downfield throws. One of those throws went to DeSean Jackson off his back foot as he perfectly placed a lofted pass down the sideline. The other saw him throw across his body to his second read to convert a third and eight in the third quarter.
Of course, it's hard to celebrate those throws when there were many more poor plays from the quarterback. The most damning was that late interception that was wiped off because of a penalty.
Before we even look at the physical actions of the play itself, it's important to understand the cardinal sin that Foles makes here in terms of situational football. The Eagles have the ball at their own 34 yard line with a three point lead and four minutes to go in the game. Although it's second and seven, the priority here is ball control. Taking risks and forcing throws into dangerous situations is the last thing you do here, because it would set the offense up very close to field goal range for a game-tying field goal and give them plenty of time to go for a potential game winning touchdown.
At worst, Foles should take a sack to keep the clock moving and live for third down.
Foles looks to Cooper out wide after faking the handoff to McCoy. Cooper is well covered, so he quickly comes off that read. He never looks towards the other side of the field, where Tyrann Mathieu is covering Jason Avant. Mathieu is penalised for holding on the play, but the replay seemed to suggest that Mathieu simply played aggressive (and very good) coverage.
Despite being under pressure quickly, Foles holds the ball and continues to look downfield. He never gets to the right side of the field, but watches Jackson running a crossing route. Even as the defender is dragging him to the ground, Foles throws the ball. He lofts an inaccurate pass high and over the middle of the field where multiple Cardinals are closing on Jackson. The ball never gets near Jackson as Peterson had a lot of time to see the pass coming and react to it.
This is a cardinal sin for any quarterback. It's the kind of play that rookies will make, but won't be allowed to make even more than once. When a veteran makes this play, it's likely a signal that he's not long for a starting role.
Two questions will remain with Foles right now. 1. Can he continue to produce statistically to be fantasy football gold? 2. Will he be the long-term option for Chip Kelly? It's likely that Foles will continue to produce good numbers, although it would be incredible if he continued to avoid turning the ball over. If the Eagles have an opportunity to get a top quarterback from this year's draft, then chances are Foles won't be the quarterback entering next season.
Long-term takeaways from Foles' season should tell us to place a greater value on the quarterback playing in Chip Kelly's scheme. That's not because of extra rushing yards, but rather because he can turn simple throws into bigger gains with the variety of options that he affords to his quarterback. Michael Vick never really fit what Kelly wanted to do, but Foles fits perfectly from a mental point of view. If he didn't have a similar skill-set to Ryan Fitzpatrick, then maybe he could expect to continue to turn this unrealistic dream into reality.
Cordarrelle Patterson Assuming the Percy Harvin Role
As the season has grown older, the calls for more Cordarrelle Patterson touches have grown louder. It's easy to understand why the Minnesota Vikings were hesitant to put Patterson on the field. While he has supreme physical talents, he was as raw as any other prospect coming out of college. Even using him in plays that were specifically designed to get the ball in his hands seemed foolish because it would make the offense more predictable.
We'll never know if Patterson truly benefited from sitting on the sideline rather than learning on the field, but right now he is showing off some of his potential that made him such a hot prospect around draft time.
Patterson had just one reception for four yards against the Bears on Sunday. He still needs to develop as a receiver and may have some distance to go before he will ever be a serious threat to the better cornerbacks in the NFL. However, his comfort as a ball-carrier on special teams seamlessly translated to the offense when the Vikings lined him up at running back. In the second quarter, Patterson scored the Vikings' first touchdown of the game as he took a pitch off right tackle for a 33 yard touchdown.
The Vikings come out with a very peculiar formation that appears to throw the Chicago Bears defense off balance. The alignment itself is fine, but Patterson is lined up as a running back(red circle) and running back Toby Gerhart is the only player lined up in the position of a wide receiver(yellow circle). The Bears feel compelled to cover Gerhart, as they should, but they still keep one safety deep, leaving nine defenders in the box.
The Vikings pitch the ball to Patterson so he is building speed before the line of scrimmage. Fullback Jerome Felton is leading the way for Patterson, while right guard Brandon Fusco pulls outside to block the edge defender. The right sided tight end and right tackle block down on the interior defensive linemen to create space for the fullback and Patterson running off tackle.
A hole opens up between the right guard and the fullback to the outside, but Patterson is smart in how he sets up his blocking. He doesn't immediately run to the hole, instead sticking to the inside shoulder of his fullback to keep the defender he is blocking from pushing outside and immediately forcing Patterosn back inside.
Once on the second level, Patterson is very quick to sidestep the defensive back in his face. The defender initially gets hold of him, but he is smart enough to push his shoulder with his free hand while he moves sideways to get past him.
Even though he doesn't completely regain his balance from his first sidestep, Patterson has to quickly adjust again as more defenders come towards him. Patterson plants his foot in front of his face and pushes back off of it. Much like with his previous sidestep, Patterson doesn't cleanly beat the defender, but he has enough strength to push through the defender's attempt to drag him down.
From there, Patterson is able to accelerate past a defender coming across the field for the touchdown. While his elusiveness and strength was easy to see, it was his initial understanding of how to set up the run that allowed Patterson to escape into the secondary. He was also given an end-around late in the first quarter of the game, but the Bears played it perfectly so he had nowhere to go when he got the ball.
Revisiting Andre Holmes
Last week I touched on the physical ability and potential of Andre Holmes. The Oakland Raiders wide receiver followed that up with a breakout game against his former team, the Dallas Cowboys. Holmes touched on the idea that he performed well in that game because he wanted to make a statement against his former team, but if he takes the same approach to the rest of the season he could have a huge impact for the Raiders.
His first reception came on an out route, but he followed that up with a dropped curl route underneath. Those were only preludes to his first big play of the game in the second quarter however. Holmes is lined up to the top of the screen against Brandon Carr. Carr isn't having a great season, but he is a very talented cornerback and the Cowboys are playing with two deep safeties.
Homes runs a double-move that gives him no real separation because Carr is happy to just play the underneath routes. It does create more space between he and the sideline however. Critically, it also turns Carr's head away from the football which allows McGloin to make an aggressive throw. McGloin puts it high in the air to allow Holmes to snatch it out of the air at full extension.
This type of reception is what makes Holmes such an intriguing prospect. His outstanding physical ability would not be valuable without this ability to adjust to the football and comfortably snatch it from the air. Carr doesn't play bad coverage, but there is nothing that he can do to the ball or the receiver because Holmes has caught the ball at its highest point and is falling away from him.
Soon after his first big reception, Holmes made his second in a similar situation. This time there is no safety help so Carr is playing more aggressively. Holmes gets outside of Carr, but the cornerback is squeezing him out over the sideline. Carr smells blood so is very aggressive trying to get Holmes over the sideline to make him ineligible as a receiver. This means he isn't looking at the ball again.
Whether by design or luck, McGloin underthrows the pass down the sideline. That allows Holmes, who can see the ball, to work back inside of Carr while the cornerback fades towards the sideline. Even at that point, Carr does well to recover so he is in a position to break up the pass. Holmes attacks the football with his athleticism to win it cleanly in front of Carr.
He falls down into the end zone for what was initially ruled as a touchdown, but ultimately became a 15 yard reception to the one-yard line.
There is no questioning Holmes' ability to make big plays over cornerbacks down the sideline at this point. He only needs to prove that he can consistently come up with those receptions in order to carve out a role in the NFL. However, probably the most exciting aspect of his performance on Thanksgiving was how well he performed as an all-around receiver.
Later in the game, the Cowboys were threatening a blitz on third down. Carr lines up in press coverage with a huge amount of space behind him. This appears to be the perfect spot to take a shot to Holmes again down the sideline, but this time the Raiders run a slant route.
McGloin motioned his protection to the right. He was expecting the Cowboys to blitz from the second level, so he only needed a moment before he could find Holmes running into the vacated space. However, the Cowboys only threaten to blitz before dropping that safety into coverage. McGloin makes an excellent decision here because he doesn't force the ball into a tight window for a completion that would be short of the first down. Similarly, Holmes makes an excellent decision because once he sees the safety he slightly alters the angle of his slant route to run in behind the defender.
Holmes creates separation from Carr over the middle of the field, before making an excellent play on a pass that was thrown behind him. He catches the ball with his hands and corals it with his body as he falls to the ground for the first down reception. It's not as flashy a play as the big reception down the sideline, but it is a very important play for any NFL caliber receiver to make.
Two other notable receptions went Holmes' way. The first saw him come free over the middle of the field as he initially faked a screen play, while the second showed off excellent concentration as he caught the ball by the sideline dropping over a defender. Holmes also had one target down the sideline that he didn't recognise early enough to make a play on the ball.
This was a very promising display for Holmes. Whether he is the next Victor Cruz or just another Jerome Harrison late-season affair is yet to be determined. At the very least, Holmes' sample size is growing and becoming tougher to ignore.
Revisiting LeVeon Bell
LeVeon Bell had his best day as an NFL player on Thanksgiving against the Baltimore Ravens. Bell had just 16 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown, but he also had seven receptions for 63 receiving yards and should have had another touchdown that was waved off because his helmet came off as he was falling into the end zone.
As a stat line, that kind of production is what the Steelers will expect from Bell moving forward. Somewhat fittingly, his biggest run of the day essentially captured who Bell is as a player.
At midfield, Bell is lined up alone in the backfield. The Steelers have a tight end to the right, with two receivers tight to the formation and a receiver wide left. The Ravens are in their base defense, but there is space between the offensive tackles because the defense is spread out.
The Steelers give Bell the ball running towards right tackle. Bell very quickly recognises that there is a cutback lane opening inside of his right guard, but he is smart enough to make a hard cut towards that hole to prevent the defense from immediately collapsing in on it. Bell is very fast through the hole also, so the defense has no chance of preventing him from getting to the second level.
This part of the play shows off Bell's outstanding vision and decisiveness.
On the second level, Bell has one blocker with two defenders closing in on him. Antonio Brown is that blocker and he is pushing Jimmy Smith across the field. Smith and Brown are moving towards Bell, but before they can reach him he plants his foot in the ground to push his body towards the sideline. Brown runs into the pursuing defender and Smith can't catch Bell because of the sharp cut he takes.
This part of the play shows off Bell's impressive quickness.
To this point, Bell has been perfect in the play. he recognised the hole, he attacked it quickly, he showed awareness initially and on the second level and he avoided a defender in space. However, this is the point of the play when Bell's one true limitation comes into focus. He doesn't have the speed to finish off the long touchdown even when he has a clear path ahead of him. Bell is caught from behind more than 15 yards from the goal line.
Although Bell showed that limitation, the primetime game should show off why he is going to be a very productive running back for the PIttsburgh Steelers.
Scheming for Ace Sanders
The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Ace Sanders in the fourth round of the NFL draft. Sanders was a diminutive wide receiver at the university of South Carolina who has struggled for the most part during his rookie season in Florida. In 11 games, Sanders has 36 receptions for 371 yards and no touchdowns. He has a season long reception of 51 yards, but for the most part has worked on short routes looking for quick passes.
Sanders had his most impressive game on Sunday. He only had 68 yards, seven more than he had in each of the previous two weeks and just four more than his previous season-high, but he had five first down receptions.
Sanders' first touch, and first first down, was actually a run. He initially lined up in the slot on third and one before motioning into the backfield behind the fullback. The Jaguars faked a run up the middle with the fullback, before tossing the ball to Sanders. Sanders sprinted to the sideline to get the first down.
Jagaurs offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch gave Sanders free releases on a number of plays by lining him up in different positions behind the line of scrimmage and behind other receivers. This allowed the Jaguars to get the ball in Sanders hands quickly to run at the defense with his speed. Although Sanders didn't show much elusiveness in open space, those plays did reflect well on the creativity of the offensive coordinator.
Sanders was only involved so heavily on offense because of Justin Blackmon's indefinite suspension and Mike Brown's limiting shoulder injury. Fisch showed an ability to mask his flaws and create offense that didn't require a huge amount of talent. He has done this consistently with his wide receivers throughout the season because he hasn't had a quarterback or offensive line to run a legitimate passing offense against better teams.
Whether this will be Fisch's offense moving forward or not is still to be determined. Even though he is playing away from one of the offense's best weapons, tight end Marcedes Lewis, his first year in the league should be considered a success already. Once the Jaguars find their quarterback or even if they coudl just upgrade their offensive line, Fisch should have a lot more freedom to imprint his identity onto the offense.
Quick Thoughts from the Tape
Michael Floyd had another impressive performance against the Eagles, but he wasn't helped by his quarterback, Carson Palmer. Palmer was very inconsistent and most notably missed him for what would have been a big, wide open touchdown in the first quarter of the game. From the same game, Larry Fitzgerald scored an outstanding touchdown, but he really is being wasted in the Hines Ward role of Bruce Arians' offense. Fitzgerald can still win jump balls and do damage down the field, he's just not getting enough opportunities.
Justin Tuck is 30 years of age and hasn't had a good season. He's also a free agent in the off-season and appears to be playing his best football down the stretch of this season. While Tuck may put up some notable numbers between now and Week 17, those numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt when thinking about his potential for next season considering he appears to be motivated by his market value.
Ben Tate was struggling in recent weeks with his explosion. On Sunday, he proved that most of his struggles were a result of his injured ribs. Tate ran outstandingly well showing off the acceleration and quickness that had previously deserted him.
