Five running backs have stood out from the 2013 NFL draft class. Eddie Lacy of the Green Bay Packers, Zac Stacy of the St. Louis Rams, Giovani Bernard of the Cincinnati Bengals, Andre Ellington of the Arizona Cardinals and Le'Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Only two of those backs were ever expected to carry the load for their respective offenses during their rookie seasons: Lacy and Bell. Both have missed time through injury, but both have also shown the kind of ability and consistent performance that made them so attractive to their respective franchises.
Although he is playing with one of the most famous franchises in the NFL, Bell has been somewhat overlooked compared to other rookie runners this year. Ellington and Bernard have attracted the most attention because of their big play abilities, while Stacy has been the story of the St. Louis Rams' turnaround. Bell has been a crucial piece of the Steelers' turnaround, but because there are more recognizable names around him he won't receive the same notoriety.
What Bell has brought to the Steelers is an all-around runner that they haven't had in years, with the consistency that was also lacking from their more recent runners.
Bell is what I like to call a Chance Back because no matter what you ask him to do, he will give the play every chance to have success. In eight starts, Bell has 455 yards on 143 carries for just a 3.2 yard per carry average. Those statistics are thoroughly underwhelming, but they reflect more the state of the offense as a whole rather than the individual play from Bell. The 21-year-old has run behind one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Outside of right guard David DeCastro, the Steelers don't have any offensive linemen who can consistently push defenders off the line of scrimmage or attack defenders on the second level in space.
This limits the production that Bell can have, but much more important than his production is how he is consistently getting the most out of his blocking and getting more yards from plays than those plays deserve.
On this play, Bell is lined up in the backfield alongside Roethlisberger in a shotgun formation. It's first and 10 and the Cleveland Browns have just six defenders in the box. With Heath Miller lined up behind the line of scrimmage, that means the Steelers have enough blockers in place to block each defender one-on-one.
The Steelers give Bell the ball on a delayed hand-off as they try to draw the Browns' defensive line upfield. Although this initially works, the Browns defensive linemen quickly recognize the draw and are able to redirect the Steelers' offensive linemen to take away Bell's space. Bell si running between the right guard and the right tackle, but both players are pushed into each other so he has to force his way through a tiny gap.
Bell 3
Once Bell gets to the second level, there are four defenders in position to take away potential running lanes. Three of those defenders have completely evaded their blocks, while one is being pushed directly into where Bell wants to go(#52 Number 2 block). From this position, Bell should be stopped for a short gain.
Instead, Bell very quickly diagnoses the situation and attacks the outside left channel. He is quick enough to get outside of D'Qwell Jackson(#52) with the help of his blocker occupying some of the linebacker's attention. From there, he subtly slips past the incoming defensive back from the outside with his acceleration before lowering his head to attack the deeper safety in his way.
One of the knocks on Bell when he was coming out of college was that he ran too tall. That hasn't been an issue in the NFL to this point. The finish of this play is a great example of how he gets low and drives with his legs to finish runs with forward momentum. On this play, Bell drives the defender back seven or eight yards after initial contact. That, despite having two more defenders look to pull him down before the first down marker.
This was a great play to show off Bell's ability as a runner. He's not explosive like Bernard or Ellington, but he does have consistency with his burst. He knows when to be patient and when to attack. When that intelligence is combined with his awareness of how to set up defenders and his vision to find the right hole, it's easy to see why Bell is consistently getting the most out of what his blocking affords him.
Bell and Zac Stacy have been very similar to this point in their NFL careers. Both make the most out of plays consistently. Stacy has better production because his burst is greater than Bell's, but Bell offers an added dimension as a receiver that Stacy doesn't.
If you extrapolate Bell's receiving stats to a full 16 game season, he would finish this year with 52 receptions and 512 yards. That is an impressive ratio for a back who is playing on a quick passing offense that looks to put the ball in the hands of its receivers to make plays. Bell doesn't get many check downs because his quarterback Ben Roethlisberger doesn't get time to hang in the pocket and survey the field very often.
Instead, Bell's receptions come when he lines up as a receiver, catches screen passes or is a hot read out of the backfield.
On this play, Bell is lined up in the slot to the right on second and 10.
The Steelers run a screen play to Bell that appears set to spring him for big yardage. The Steelers have two blockers running into space and the Browns sent a blitz so they are already thin on the backend.
One of the Browns' defensive linemen reads the screen and gets back into a position that forces Bell to swerve around him. This slows his release into the secondary. While that is happening, DeCastro misses his block on the second level, meaning another defender arrives as soon as Bell gets past the defensive lineman.
Bell accelerates past the first defender, before he is met with a safety in a tight space. Although he has to move very quickly, Bell is able to spin away from the defender's tackle with a very quick spin move that causes the defender to dive at the ground. Bell is caught from behind by the initial defensive lineman who tried to tackle him, but not before he gets a first down.
These are the kind of plays that Bell is going to build his career off of if he is to last in Pittsburgh. He won't ever possess the home-run speed of Chris Johnson or the sheer physical power of Adrian Peterson, but he has more than enough athleticism and intelligence to be a feature back for the Steelers for the next five or six years.
While many thought Bell was overdrafted, others had alterior issues with the Green Bay Packers' second round selection of Eddie Lacy. Lacy himself was a very good prospect whose primary concern appeared to be with his health at the time. The other major concern was the struggles of former Alabama running backs on the professional level. Neither Mark Ingram or Trent Richardson, the two backs who preceded Lacy in Nick Saban's offense, had achieved anything close to respectable at that point in their careers.
Furthermore, Lacy had a similar build to both Richardson and Ingram and many questioned if his production in college was a result of who he played for rather than who he was.
So far during his rookie season that has produced 10 starts, 197 carries, 806 yards and six touchdowns with just one fumble, Lacy has disproved any and all doubters. In many ways, he was the final piece to the Packers offense when everyone was healthy. His abrasive, decisive running style completely separates him from any potential Ingram or Richardson comparisons. At the beginning of the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, Lacy showed off the key difference between he and Ingram.
The Packers have quarterback Matt Flynn under center, with Lacy alone in the backfield. They motion the wide receiver to the left side closer to the line of scrimmage. His motion combined with the presence of the tight end suggests that the Packers may be running off left tackle. The Vikings have just six defenders in the box and both are to the right of the center.
The Packers don't attack the left side of their offensive line, but they are looking to create a cutback lane for Lacy off the right side. When Lacy gets the ball, his focus is immediately on his two offensive linemen who are running to the right side. Both of those linemen are locating the linebackers in space, after the defensive tackle was walled off and the defensive end is being blocked out of the play. Lacy is hesitating here, much like Trent Richardson regularly does behind the line of scrimmage, but he is intelligently hesitating as he is reading the blocking in front of him.
If all goes to plan, the linebackers will react to Lacy's initial movement towards the right tackle and flow that way. That should allow the interior offensive linemen to seal a cut back lane inside. If Lacy moves too quickly inside, then the linebackers are more likely to take away that cut back lane and tackle him closer to the line of scrimmage. This is where his patience comes into play.
Patience is important, but so is timing. Instead of waiting too long, Lacy plants his foot and attacks the cut back lane exactly when he should.
At this point in the play, Lacy shows off the key difference between he and the other Alabama running backs in the NFL. When he attacks a hole in the line of scrimmage, he aggressively rushes through. He isn't slow, he is decisive and this makes it very difficult for any defenders to take him down without ceding forward momentum to him. These holes don't stay open in the NFL, so hitting them quickly and going through them quickly is vital for success.
At that point, Lacy's sheer power makes it impossible for even two defenders to drag him down from behind. He keeps pushing and dragging defenders so that he ultimately gains a first down and is actually not taken down even after a pile forms.
Lacy isn't much of a receiving option, but he does enough not to constrict the passing offense and make play-calling predictable. He has landed in the perfect spot because he gives the Packers much-needed balance with his style of play. Once Aaron Rodgers returns, this offense should immediately vault itself back to being one of the most efficient in the NFL. Lacy is a huge part of that already.
Andre Holmes' Potential
Undrafted Oakland Raiders quarterback Matt McGloin is drawing all of the attention in Oakland right now. The rookie has been very impressive in the place of Terrell Pryor the past two weeks. While McGloin is showing promise, he's not the only undrafted player on the Raiders offense who is catching the eye. Wide receiver Andre Holmes was undrafted back in 2011 before landing with the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys. After a stint with the New England Patriots, he wound up in Oakland with the Raiders.
Holmes has just three receptions and 65 yards this season with just five for 76 for his career as a whole. While Holmes essentially has no statistical output, he stands out on the field because of his physical talent. He is 6'4" and weighs over 200 lbs, with the speed to go down the field. His fluidity and natural approach to the football on two deep balls showed up against the Houston Texans in Week 11 even though he only managed to catch one of those passes.
Against the Tennessee Titans this past Sunday, he was targeted five times and caught two passes for 32 yards. Statistically that was another underwhelming day, but because of his physical abilities it's worth digging deeper into his talent for any potential breakout candidacy entering next season. Even though he has been in the league for multiple years, he is also still just 25 so it's not impossible that he becomes the next Laurent Robinson.
For his first target, a target that came late in the first quarter, Holmes failed to adjust to a deep pass that was thrown behind him as he was running a deep in route. This is something that is more likely to come with experience as Holmes will learn how to adjust to the soft spots in zone coverage the more he plays. His second target came early in the second quarter, as he ran a crossing route underneath. He couldn't escape the attention of Alterraun Verner though as he ran a lazy route, allowing the cornerback to punch the ball away from his extended arms.
Holmes finally got his first reception of the game early in the third quarter, as he settled down well on a crossing route to avoid a potential big hit from the incoming Michael Griffin. On his next target, Holmes did well to get inside of Verner before letting a ball go through his hands. He should have caught the ball and immediately looked for a flag afterwards because Verner did well to recover.
Where Holmes' real potential lies is working the sideline. That's what he did on his final target when he came up with his second reception. He adjusted well to catch a low back-shoulder throw from McGloin into his chest.
Against the Texans, the Raiders gave him two targets that were essentially jump balls. He came down with both passes, but landed out of bounds with one of them. He had a third target on the day, when he ran a double move to create separation against the defensive back down the sideline, but McGloin overthrew him. Holmes hasn't shown any signs of being capable of becoming an all-around receiver, but his ability to go up and get the ball could make him very dangerous in the red zone and on big plays such as the one that came in the Texans game.
Whether the Raiders give him those opportunities moving forward is another issue altogether however.
Michael Floyd's Continued Development
Michael Floyd is somewhat of a forgotten wide receiver. He was highly thought of when he was taken in the first round of the 2012 draft, but he didn't feature much on an offense that was handicapped by horrendous quarterback play. Even though the quarterback play was a major issue, Floyd also didn't look very impressive individually as a rookie. He was tentative and looked to lack explosion when he was on the field.
This season has been completely different.
With Carson Palmer steadying the offense somewhat, at least steadying the offense as much as any quarterback could behind that offensive line, Floyd has produced statistically. In 11 starts, he has 49 receptions for 761 yards and three touchdowns. Much more important than that however is how he plays on the field. Floyd is running an expanded route tree and looks very explosive and sharp doing it. Over the past two weeks in particular Floyd has excelled.
Against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts, Floyd had a combined 13 receptions for 297 yards and a touchdown.
Floyd is a big receiver, he is listed at 6'2" and 220 lbs and likely plays at around 210 lbs right now. He has good height, but also somewhat of a slender frame that allows him to be more flexible reacting to the football. At Notre Dame he showed off the ability to catch the ball in different situations and with his body contorted in differet ways. That talent is now translating to the NFL.
On this play, Floyd is lined up in the slot and the Indianapolis Colts' best defensive back Vontae Davis is in press coverage against him. The Cardinals have a receiver to either side of Floyd, but they are not bunched together.
Floyd is able to get outside of Davis with his release, as he initially hesitates to fake an inside route. However, he doesn't create any real separation from Davis who is in very good position to run with him down the sideline.
Even though Floyd isn't open, Carson Palmer was looking his direction from the snap and throws a perfect pass to him over the shoulder of Davis. That doesn't mean that Floyd doesn't have to do anything though. Floyd goes up and meets the ball at its highest point before securing it quicker than Davis can attack it. This completely takes the cornerback out of the play and turns a catch that should have been contested into a relatively easy reception. This is the kind of ability that made Floyd an attractive prospect during draft time two years ago.
His consistency attacking the ball with his hands rather than letting it get into his chest will be the difference between Floyd making five or six plays every game opposed to just two or three. Against the Colts, he made three excellent receptions with his hands away from his body.
What makes Floyd more interesting than other receivers is that he is also not locked into being just a big receiver. Unlike a receiver such as Alshon Jeffery, Floyd has the potential to be a very precise and subtle route runner. In many ways, he could follow the path of Hakeem Nicks of the New York Giants. Nicks doesn't receive as much acclaim these days, but that's primarily because of his poor health. When healthy, he is an outstanding receiver.
Floyd is showing well as a route runner to this point, but he needs to keep developing to elevate himself to that elite level of all-around receivers.
Again, Floyd is lined up against Davis of the Colts. Except this time the pair are matched up on the outside with no receivers to their side of the field. This gives Floyd more space to work in if the underneath linebacker blitzes the quarterback as he is threatening to do.
Unlike his big play down the sideline from the slot, Floyd didn't show hesitation when he ran this slant route. He had a decisive first step that moved Davis towards the sideline before he broke inside. When Palmer let the ball go, there was clear separation between Floyd and Davis. Palmer put the ball in his chest, so the defensive back had no chance at all of getting to the football.
Regardless of the competition they have faced, Floyd has shown throughout the season that he has more than enough talent to excel at this level. If the Cardinals offense as a whole can keep itself on track, then big things could be in his future playing across from Larry Fitzgerald.
Quick Thoughts From the Tape:
Case Keenum's Confidence
Keenum was very poor against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Lots of analysis will be done and plenty of post-mortems will say that teams figured him out, but that's not what it appeared to be. Keenum looked lifeless against the Jaguars. He wasn't pushing the ball down the field and there was less energy to his all around play. It appears that being benched the previous week affected him as much as anything else.
Ryan Fitzpatrick's Efficiency
Fitzpatrick sometimes gives up on plays too quickly and he can't throw the ball down the field, but now that he appears to understand his limitations he is playing much better football. In Buffalo he often tried to do too much, with the Titans he can rely on the flurry of playmakers around him like he did against the Raiders this past weekend.
Mike Glennon's Balance
Mike Glennon has been receiving plenty of praise in recent weeks. What has really stood out to me is his understanding of when to be aggressive and when to be patient. Glennon brings less physical talent to the Buccaneers offense than Josh Freeman did, but he brings the control that they so desperately needed. Glennon may not be a starter next season, but at this point you have to bet on him.
Carson Palmer's Consistency
As I mentioned in the Floyd section, Carson Palmer is playing outstanding football right now. It may just be that he is more confident against lesser teams, but in terms of his actions on the field there is no real way to discredit his displays. Palmer is consistently throwing darts under pressure and allowing the offense to flourish around him in spite of the obvious flaws upfront.
J.J. Watt and the worst defense in the NFL
The Houston Texans have the best defensive player in the NFL and probably the worst defense in the NFL. Watt has been phenomenal, but teams can double team him as much as they like and his impact is reduced because there are no other consistent threats in the front seven. That combined with Johnathan Joseph's inexplicable drop-off at the cornerback position and the absence of Brian Cushing alone has killed the defense, but when you add in the lack of quality safety play it just becomes extremely ugly.
