There is little question as to who the top tight end in both the NFL and in fantasy football is entering 2015. Rob Gronkowski had 82 catches, 1,124 yards and a dozen touchdowns last year, leading the league in all both yardage and scores at the tight end position. The dominance continues if you look back at his entire career, with double-digit touchdowns in all but 2013, when he only played seven games. That leads us to the distinct possibility that he could miss some time this season, so we have to ask - what would happen to the New England Patriot offense if Gronkowski were to be lost for an extended period of time this season?
BUY
Reggie Wayne, NE – With no Gronkowski in the mix, New England needs a big target with good hands and a consistent ability to catch passes both over the middle and in the Red Zone. Who better than this future Hall of Fame wideout?
Julian Edelman, WR – Julian Edelman led the Patriots in targets last year with 134, but he had even more in 2013 when he saw 151 passes thrown in his direction. That just so happens to be the same season that Gronkowski missed nine contests. Coincidence? I think not. Edelman was 10-15% more valuable in 2013, and he would be again if Gronkowski is sidelined.
LeGarrette Blount, RB – New England is still going to move the ball, but the touchdown passes to Gronkowski have to be replaced somehow. I would think that Blount's nose for the end zone as a goal line rusher would elevate his value if Gronkowski misses significant time.
HOLD
Brandon LaFell, WR – LaFell might be the top wide receiver for New England in 2015, but he is not the red zone or over the middle receiver that Gronkowski is when he is at ful strength. LaFell plays outside the numbers while Gronkowski pushes the defense in the middle of the field. Brady may look to LaFell a little more, but I would not expect a major uptick in numbers.
SELL
Tom Brady, QB – Tom Brady went to the Super Bowl with some really bad targets (Reche Caldwell, anyone?), so you might think he can get the job done even if Gronkowski misses some time - but it should be pointed out that Brady's only season in the past six years with under 29 touchdown passes was the same season that Gronkowski only played seven games. Brady's value is already down now with an expected suspension, and the loss of his best touchdown option would really lower Brady's outlook.
ADD
Danny Amendola, WR – Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare for safeties and linebackers, offering Tom Brady a great target over the middle. If the big tight end misses several games, Amendola may get more work as "Wes Welker 2.0" out of the slot and catch several passes a game to move the changes and keep defenses more honest.
James White, RB or Brandon Bolden, RB – Gronkowski sees a ton of short passes go his way, but if he is injured, New England has to find other options. The receiving tailback for the Patriots would see 20% or so more targets if Gronkowski misses time, and that is either going to be James White or Brandon Bolden.
DROP
None. New England might struggle to score as many touchdowns from Brady to the tight end, but if there is one thing that Bill Belichick has demonstrated in the past is the ability to adapt and get production no matter who is on the roster.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.