The Cincinnati Bengals were a playoff team thanks to a balanced offense between the passing and ground game all season long. The duo of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill combined for over 1,800 yards rushing, over 550 yards receiving and 16 total touchdowns. Hill led this committee backfield with over 1,300 combined yards and nine of those 16 scores, cementing his position as the lead back for Cincinnati. Hill's draft position in 2015 backs this up, as Hill is usually going in the second or third round of most fantasy drafts. But the question has to be asked - what would happen if Hill was to suffer a major injury that costs him a significant amount of the season?
BUY
Giovani Bernard, RB – Clearly this is the guy to own, but the problem is that Bernard's ADP (62 in PPR, 61 in non-PPR) puts his price tag way too high to draft both Bernard and Hill, costing what would likely be a second round and fifth or six round selection. Bernard would be great to trade for if you own Hill, but again the cost will be high as Bernard has solid RB3/flex value and appeal in his own right. But this isn't the question at hand, right? If Hill gets hurt, what happens to Bernard? Odds are that Bernard would become the feature tailback for the Bengals, a role he has not had since his college days at North Carolina. Bernard could certainly handle the bulk of the work and post over 100 yards combined each game as a feature back.
HOLD
A.J. Green, WR – If Hill goes down for the year, the offense would likely remain the same as Giovani Bernard would step right in and the passing game would go relatively unchanged. A.J. Green remains a Top 10 wide receiver.
Andy Dalton, QB – Dalton would likely post similar stats as long as Giovani Bernard performs as he has in the past two seasons. Keeping him fresh will be the key, but Bernard should be able to fill the void left by Hill's injury and Dalton's passing numbers will be very similar with Bernard as the lone tailback.
Tyler Eifert, TE - Not much is expected of the tight end for the Bengals this year, even if Hill is healthy. Losing Hill would be a negligible effect on Eifert's numbers.
SELL
None - Giovani Bernard is a solid back who can step right in and the Bengals should not miss much of a beat, if any at all.
ADD
Rex Burkhead, RB and Cedric Peerman, RB - While Bernard is going to get most of the attention, it is clear that in today's NFL, a team cannot rely on just one guy. Rex Burkhead and Cedric Peerman offer some upside each, and it is likely that Burkhead has a little more upside as he may see a little more playing time. Odds are that neither player is worth adding except for potential upside (if Bernard also goes down), so I would give the slight nod ot Burkhead over Peerman.
Mohamed Sanu, WR and Marvin Jones, WR - Cincinnati would likely remain unphased if Hill goes down, but there may be some situations where three wide receiver sets may be used a little more often. Right now, Sanu and Jones are each vying for the WR2 role, but both would likely see the field a little more without a healthy Jeremy Hill.
DROP
None. Cincinnati's offense is productive enough for everyone to remain solid and productive performers, even if the overall production sees a slight dip without Jeremy Hill.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.