The Green Bay Packers had a high-powered offense last year with Aaron Rodgers and the passing game, but often overlooked was the balance on offense afforded by their feature tailback in Eddie Lacy. Lacy provided over 1,500 yards of offense as both a rusher (246 carries, 1,139 yards and nine touchowns) and a receiver (42 catches, 427 yards and three scores). Lacy is a true feature back that plays on all three downs, and the numbers proved that out last season. Not only did Lacy finish as a Top 6 running back in fantasy last year, he dominated the playing time and production with the Packers with 67% of the team rushing yards and added 71% of the receiving yards for all the Green Bay running backs combined. So, what would happen if Lacy was to suffer a major injury that costs him the season?
BUY
James Starks, RB – Clearly this is the guy to own. His ADP is so cheap right now (over 200 in both PPR and non-PPR) that he is a must own for any Eddie Lacy owner, and also very much worth a late round pick for anyone considering running back depth with a lot of upside. What would happen if Lacy goes down? Look no further than almost two years ago when Lacy was forced out of a game against Washington back in 2013 with a concussion. Starks came in as the understudy and performed like a stud, racking up 132 yards rushing on 20 carries and a touchdown and adding 36 yards on four receptions. Starks went back to understudy the following week (for Jonathan Franklin, anyone remember him?) and posted respectable numbers (14-55-0) behind a solid game from Franklin (12-103-1, 3-23 receiving). With not much behind Starks in the Green Bay cupboard, the backfield would be his if Lacy missed significant time.
Davante Adams, WR – While Starks is going to get most of the attention, Aaron Rodgers would likely call his own number to throw a bit more with no Eddie Lacy, even without Lacy's stellar pass protection abilities. Starks can block well, and he might be called upon to do that more with Rodgers throwing to Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson. The question about the passing game is this - if Lacy is out, where do his 40-50 catches go? Starks is likely to get most of them, but the screen plays and designed passes might go a little more to the WR3 for Green Bay, which is Davante Adams. While I do not expect Adams' value and performances to skyrocket in this scenario, a few more targets are possible, which means a lot of upside in a Green Bay passing game.
HOLD
Jordy Nelson, WR – If Lacy goes down for the year, many would believe that the Packers would throw the ball more and try to use the passing attack as an extension of the running game. That may sound right, but Starks is more than capable as a runner and receiver, and that will be just enough to keep defenses respecting a very dangerous passing game with Rodgers, Nelson and Randall Cobb. I do not see any of the Packers' numbers going significantly up or down if Lacy misses a lot of time.
Randall Cobb, WR – Pretty much the same story as Nelson (above).
Aaron Rodgers, QB – Hard to worry about the #1 or #2 best quarterback in the league. Even without Lacy, Rodgers can carry an offense. With Starks as his top back, Rodgers would still be a strong fantasy QB. His numbers might go up only if both Lacy and Starks are injured.
John Kuhn, RB – Kuhn is a situational (often goal line) running back that will not see any spike in utilization if Lacy misses time. He cannot be considered a primary feature back or even the lead of a committee approach to a backfield.
SELL
None - Unless you invested in a Green Bay tight end. Not much is expected of either Richard Rodgers or Andrew Quarless, but even less would be expected of them if they had to stay in and block more.
ADD
John Crockett, RB – Assuming undrafted free agent John Crockett makes the squad, he offers the most upside of any back after James Starks. Crockett led North Dakota State in his senior season by rushing for 1,994 yards and 21 touchdowns on 368 carries, as well as chipping in 30 receptions. While he lacks elite burst and acceleration, Crockett has the skillset to be an every down back and can grind down a defense when given the opportunity.
DROP
None. Green Bay's offense is productive enough for everyone to remain solid and productive performers, even if the overall production sees a slight dip without Eddie Lacy.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.