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PPR WR By Committee - Update

Finding a Second Starting Wide Receiver in PPR Leagues by Committee for 2017

This year's series of "By Committee" articles sparked a few great questions from the readers, and that led to a recent article where I discussed using a few different approaches (such as Ben Roethlisberger only at home plus another quarterback).  At the end of the article, a table was presented to show several options at quarterback for committee pairs that involved quarterbacks that were higher than the cutoff line that I had drawn (QB13+ on the ADP list).  The readers asked why the line was drawn at QB12, and I felt that it was a good question and a different answer (and article) was needed.  Further investigation of this seemlingly arbitrary line led me to ask the question for wide receiver - should the line be drawn higher, and could better pairs result?  

So with this in mind, I revisited the arguments I made about the committee approach, and then I explored raising the line (and the bar) for better pairs.  Below are the results, which I hope help you on your fantasy draft day: 

ELIGIBLE RECEIVERS

I mentioned this the first time - defenses and quarterbacks are relatively easy to "committee" together. There's usually only one QB and certainly only one team defense per NFL club, so the approach is pretty simple as far as picking out which players / teams to try and pair up. When it comes to wide receivers, the line is not quite so easy to draw, but I needed some basis to pick which players it made sense to try and combine for a decent committee. This time I decided that I would use the following criteria to decide which players to start with for evaluating:

CRITERIA #1 - WR12 AND BEYOND

This seems pretty simple. If we want to have a duo that puts up elite numbers, that means we want WR10 or better production - else we would just draft a Top 10 option and forget the whole idea. So here is the list of players with which I started, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP):

ADP Player ADP Player
WR12 Doug Baldwin WR22 Golden Tate
WR13 Dez Bryant WR23 Stefon Diggs
WR14 Brandin Cooks WR24 Emmanuel Sanders
WR15 Larry Fitzgerald WR25 Julian Edelman
WR16 Tyreek Hill WR26 Davante Adams
WR17 Michael Crabtree WR27 Brandon Marshall
WR18 Allen Robinson WR28 Sammy Watkins
WR19 Keenan Allen WR29 Willie Snead
WR20 Alshon Jeffery WR30 Jamison Crowder
WR21 Jarvis Landry    

Table 1: Wide Receivers WR12-30 Based on ADP

Now we have 19 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 171 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Now, before I go over the method of how to pair them up and the results, we need one more rule:

CRITERIA #2 - NO MORE THAN ONE WR FROM ROUND 7 AND ONE FROM ROUND 8

Rather than keep Criteria #2 from the original article, I am allowing for more flexibility in your draft.  Let us let the results speak for themselves and then decide which pairs are the correct ones to select as the draft progresses.

So what do we do now to figure out some WR pairs?

CRITERIA #3 - USE FOOTBALLGUYS' WR STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

This sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Just take the WR Strength of Schedule to figure out when certain players are more likely to score well. What I did is similar to what the Projections Dominator and Draft Dominator do for you - take the projected fantasy points and slice them up over 17 weeks based on the strength of schedule. I call this result the "distributed fantasy points" for each receiver.

After I had all 19 wide receivers with distributed fantasy points on a weekly basis, I just compared all of the possible WR pairs to find the best duos for WR3BC. So here we are - time for some results:

Rank Wide Receiver 1 Wide Receiver 2 Value
1 Doug Baldwin Brandin Cooks 273.13
2 Dez Bryant Brandin Cooks 272.5
3 Dez Bryant Tyreek Hill 269.09
4 Doug Baldwin Michael Crabtree 267.29
5 Dez Bryant Michael Crabtree 266.78
6 Doug Baldwin Tyreek Hill 266.26
7 Dez Bryant Allen Robinson 265.45
8 Brandin Cooks Golden Tate 265.13
9 Doug Baldwin Allen Robinson 265.06
10 Brandin Cooks Michael Crabtree 264.15
11 Doug Baldwin Alshon Jeffery 264.03
12 Doug Baldwin Larry Fitzgerald 263.8
13 Doug Baldwin Stefon Diggs 263.63
14 Michael Crabtree Allen Robinson 263.41
15 Dez Bryant Larry Fitzgerald 263.28
16 Doug Baldwin Keenan Allen 262.12
17 Dez Bryant Golden Tate 261.03
18 Doug Baldwin Golden Tate 261.02
19 Dez Bryant Alshon Jeffery 260.78
20 Dez Bryant Keenan Allen 260.72
21 Brandin Cooks Larry Fitzgerald 260.59
22 Doug Baldwin Jarvis Landry 260.52
23 Brandin Cooks Emmanuel Sanders 259.61
24 Brandin Cooks Jarvis Landry 259.6
25 Brandin Cooks Allen Robinson 259.5
26 Brandin Cooks Tyreek Hill 259.28
27 Larry Fitzgerald Michael Crabtree 257.77
28 Dez Bryant Julian Edelman 257.57
29 Doug Baldwin Willie Snead 257.25
30 Doug Baldwin Julian Edelman 257.1
31 Dez Bryant Stefon Diggs 256.89
32 Tyreek Hill Golden Tate 256.72
33 Doug Baldwin Jamison Crowder 256.67
34 Allen Robinson Golden Tate 256.33
35 Michael Crabtree Keenan Allen 256.27
36 Brandin Cooks Brandon Marshall 256.21
37 Doug Baldwin Emmanuel Sanders 256.12
38 Dez Bryant Jarvis Landry 255.43
39 Dez Bryant Jamison Crowder 255.4
40 Doug Baldwin Dez Bryant 255
41 Brandin Cooks Davante Adams 254.98
42 Doug Baldwin Sammy Watkins 254.89
43 Tyreek Hill Allen Robinson 254.75
44 Dez Bryant Emmanuel Sanders 254.56
45 Doug Baldwin Davante Adams 254.23
46 Brandin Cooks Jamison Crowder 253.52
47 Allen Robinson Jarvis Landry 253.38
48 Allen Robinson Alshon Jeffery 253.29
49 Michael Crabtree Golden Tate 253.27
50 Michael Crabtree Emmanuel Sanders 253
51 Brandin Cooks Willie Snead 252.88
52 Dez Bryant Davante Adams 252.31
53 Dez Bryant Willie Snead 251.9
54 Tyreek Hill Jarvis Landry 251.85
55 Michael Crabtree Jarvis Landry 251.44
56 Tyreek Hill Keenan Allen 251.25
57 Larry Fitzgerald Keenan Allen 250.9
58 Allen Robinson Emmanuel Sanders 250.67
59 Dez Bryant Sammy Watkins 250.65
60 Michael Crabtree Stefon Diggs 250.17
61 Brandin Cooks Sammy Watkins 250.07
62 Brandin Cooks Alshon Jeffery 249.92
63 Doug Baldwin Brandon Marshall 249.92
64 Larry Fitzgerald Golden Tate 249.75
65 Larry Fitzgerald Tyreek Hill 249.45
66 Alshon Jeffery Golden Tate 249.41
67 Larry Fitzgerald Stefon Diggs 249.27
68 Allen Robinson Keenan Allen 248.67
69 Larry Fitzgerald Alshon Jeffery 248.05
70 Dez Bryant Brandon Marshall 247.79
71 Tyreek Hill Stefon Diggs 247.51
72 Larry Fitzgerald Allen Robinson 247.44
73 Michael Crabtree Willie Snead 247.26
74 Tyreek Hill Emmanuel Sanders 247.13
75 Allen Robinson Stefon Diggs 247.04
76 Allen Robinson Jamison Crowder 246.65
77 Brandin Cooks Keenan Allen 246.52
78 Keenan Allen Golden Tate 246.51
79 Tyreek Hill Michael Crabtree 246.06
80 Michael Crabtree Brandon Marshall 245.55
81 Jarvis Landry Golden Tate 245.04
82 Larry Fitzgerald Jarvis Landry 244.84
83 Golden Tate Stefon Diggs 244.31
84 Keenan Allen Jarvis Landry 244.23
85 Michael Crabtree Davante Adams 244.12
86 Michael Crabtree Julian Edelman 244.06
87 Michael Crabtree Sammy Watkins 243.61
88 Brandin Cooks Stefon Diggs 243.42
89 Allen Robinson Julian Edelman 243.38
90 Allen Robinson Willie Snead 243.02
91 Michael Crabtree Jamison Crowder 242.99
92 Larry Fitzgerald Emmanuel Sanders 242.95
93 Doug Baldwin n/a 242.4

Table 2: Wide Receiver Committee Pairs

Okay, that is a really big table, but I wanted to be thorough.  As you can see, we have some very good pairs to select from for an elite WRBC. So digging in, there are 92 pairs ot Table 2 to consider, so there are a number of options.  Rather than looking at the frequency of appearances, let's just jump right into the comparison to the original table for our Top 12+ wide receivers from the original article:  

ADP WR Rank Player Team FPs
1 1 Antonio Brown PIT 314.08
2 2 Odell Beckham Jr NYG 293.86
3 3 Julio Jones ATL 284.61
4 4 Mike Evans TB 276.9
5 6 A.J. Green CIN 265.25
6 5 Jordy Nelson GB 270.18
7 7 Michael Thomas NO 260.96
8 8 T.Y. Hilton IND 257.6
9 9 Amari Cooper OAK 247.94
10 15 Dez Bryant DAL 231.97
11 11 Doug Baldwin SEA 238.66
12 14 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 233.38
13 12 Brandin Cooks NE 235.84
14 10 Demaryius Thomas DEN 241.38
15 19 Allen Robinson JAX 225.12

Table 3: Projected Fantasy Points for Elite PPR Wide Receivers

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Based on Tables 2 and 3, we see that some combinations of wide receivers can afford elite production at a reduced price.  Taking two wide receivers in the WR15-24 range with the right combined schedule gives 260+ fantasy points, which is equivalent to Amari Cooper (WR9) along with 10 points for a bye week filler. Not all of the pairings may fall into place in each draft, but having a chart like Table 2 can give you a leg up on the competition.  

The committee approach is not a perfect one, but having this knowledge prior to your fantasy draft can prove to be invaluable if you decide to adopt this approach.  If all the players on your starter list are gone, goiong with a committee can save your team and help you deal with the loss of bigger names.  The method is also a big help in "Best Ball" leagues, where lineup decisions are not necessary every week.  That's exactly where a committee can do the best, as either player can count for you each week.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.