A few weeks ago, I first wrote the WR3BC for Standard leagues article for this season - but as often happens, our members wanted more. With the recent concerns about Dwayne Bowe's finger and both receivers gaining in the ADP (I will refrain from saying I was directly responsible for this), the emails and tweets have rolled in for more advice with concerns about not getting the Dwayne Bowe and Rueben Randle pair. So what else can I do but write an article? This is my attempt to provide a better guide for you on your Draft Day. I will not re-do the entire article here, as you can certainly go back and read the methods for finding the committee pairs in the original article. Today I am only going to focus on what you want - the results.
So Dwayne Bowe is more expensive and there are some injury concerns - does that change the plan? We will get to that, but first we have to talk about the good news vs. the bad news here. Whenever wide receivers go up in ADP, another one falls - and this year, there are 15-20 reasonable guys to target. That makes WR3BC a solid plan, no matter who the receivers turn out to be.
Let's revisit where we are today, starting with the ADP of wide receivers 30-49:
ADP | Player | ADP | Player |
---|---|---|---|
WR30 | Mike Wallace | WR40 | Kelvin Benjamin |
WR31 | Marques Colston | WR41 | Rueben Randle |
WR32 | Sammy Watkins | WR42 | Tavon Austin |
WR33 | Brandin Cooks | WR43 | DeAndre Hopkins |
WR34 | Golden Tate | WR44 | Riley Cooper |
WR35 | Eric Decker | WR45 | Cecil Shorts |
WR36 | Reggie Wayne | WR46 | Anquan Boldin |
WR37 | Terrance Williams | WR47 | Danny Amendola |
WR38 | Dwayne Bowe | WR48 | Justin Hunter |
WR39 | Mike Evans | WR49 | Hakeem Nicks |
Table 1: Wide Receivers WR30-WR48 Based on ADP
But wait a minute - why did I go to WR30? The reason now is to cover you, in case the ADP get shuffled again. Your committee will certainly be better if you can land one or two receivers with ADPs of 30-36, but that is a best case scenario. Most likely you will have to grab two wide receivers after WR36, but if any of them start to shuffle in the ADP list, you will now have a handy dandy chart (coming down below) to use as a reference.
So now we have 19 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 171 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Just like before, I am going to use their weekly projected fantasy points to combine all 171 pairs to figure out which are the best ones. Table 2 contains the results for the top pairs:
Rank | Running Back 1 | Running Back 2 | Value | ADP1 | ADP2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mike Wallace | Marques Colston | 215.1 | 30 | 31 |
2 | Mike Wallace | Sammy Watkins | 214.6 | 30 | 32 |
3 | Mike Wallace | Eric Decker | 213.2 | 30 | 35 |
4 | Mike Wallace | DeAndre Hopkins | 211.7 | 30 | 43 |
5 | Mike Wallace | Reggie Wayne | 211.6 | 30 | 36 |
6 | Mike Wallace | Golden Tate | 210.9 | 30 | 34 |
7 | Mike Wallace | Rueben Randle | 210 | 30 | 41 |
8 | Mike Wallace | Brandin Cooks | 209.8 | 30 | 33 |
9 | Mike Wallace | Anquan Boldin | 209.5 | 30 | 46 |
10 | Mike Wallace | Cecil Shorts | 209.2 | 30 | 45 |
11 | Mike Wallace | Dwayne Bowe | 209.2 | 30 | 38 |
12 | Marques Colston | Sammy Watkins | 209.1 | 31 | 32 |
13 | Marques Colston | Eric Decker | 209.1 | 31 | 35 |
14 | Mike Wallace | Tavon Austin | 208.8 | 30 | 42 |
15 | Eric Decker | Reggie Wayne | 208.4 | 35 | 36 |
16 | Mike Wallace | Terrance Williams | 208.1 | 30 | 37 |
17 | Mike Wallace | Riley Cooper | 207.9 | 30 | 44 |
18 | Marques Colston | Reggie Wayne | 207.8 | 31 | 36 |
19 | Sammy Watkins | Reggie Wayne | 207.2 | 32 | 36 |
20 | Mike Wallace | Mike Evans | 207 | 30 | 39 |
21 | Mike Wallace | Kelvin Benjamin | 206.4 | 30 | 40 |
22 | Sammy Watkins | Eric Decker | 205.9 | 32 | 35 |
23 | Reggie Wayne | Dwayne Bowe | 205.7 | 36 | 38 |
24 | Marques Colston | DeAndre Hopkins | 205.5 | 31 | 43 |
25 | Mike Wallace | Hakeem Nicks | 205.4 | 30 | 49 |
26 | Sammy Watkins | Cecil Shorts | 204.9 | 32 | 45 |
27 | Mike Wallace | Justin Hunter | 204.7 | 30 | 48 |
28 | Mike Wallace | Danny Amendola | 204.7 | 30 | 47 |
29 | Marques Colston | Mike Evans | 203.3 | 31 | 39 |
30 | Eric Decker | Dwayne Bowe | 201.9 | 35 | 38 |
31 | Marques Colston | Golden Tate | 201.8 | 31 | 34 |
32 | Marques Colston | Rueben Randle | 201.7 | 31 | 41 |
33 | Sammy Watkins | Dwayne Bowe | 201.6 | 32 | 38 |
34 | Marques Colston | Terrance Williams | 201.3 | 31 | 37 |
35 | Reggie Wayne | Terrance Williams | 201.2 | 36 | 37 |
36 | Sammy Watkins | DeAndre Hopkins | 201.1 | 32 | 43 |
37 | Golden Tate | Reggie Wayne | 200.7 | 34 | 36 |
38 | Marques Colston | Anquan Boldin | 200.7 | 31 | 46 |
39 | Eric Decker | Kelvin Benjamin | 200.6 | 35 | 40 |
40 | Reggie Wayne | Anquan Boldin | 200.3 | 36 | 46 |
41 | Sammy Watkins | Anquan Boldin | 199.8 | 32 | 46 |
42 | Reggie Wayne | Mike Evans | 199.3 | 36 | 39 |
43 | Brandin Cooks | Eric Decker | 199 | 33 | 35 |
44 | Sammy Watkins | Rueben Randle | 199 | 32 | 41 |
45 | Reggie Wayne | Cecil Shorts | 198.8 | 36 | 45 |
46 | Sammy Watkins | Terrance Williams | 198.8 | 32 | 37 |
47 | Marques Colston | Cecil Shorts | 198.6 | 31 | 45 |
48 | Brandin Cooks | Reggie Wayne | 198.5 | 33 | 36 |
49 | Reggie Wayne | Rueben Randle | 198.3 | 36 | 41 |
50 | Golden Tate | Eric Decker | 197.8 | 34 | 35 |
51 | Marques Colston | Tavon Austin | 197.6 | 31 | 42 |
52 | Eric Decker | Rueben Randle | 197.6 | 35 | 41 |
53 | Marques Colston | Kelvin Benjamin | 197.2 | 31 | 40 |
54 | Eric Decker | Mike Evans | 197.1 | 35 | 39 |
55 | Mike Wallace | 0 | 196.9 | 30 | n/a |
56 | Eric Decker | DeAndre Hopkins | 196.6 | 35 | 43 |
57 | Marques Colston | Danny Amendola | 196.5 | 31 | 47 |
58 | Sammy Watkins | Tavon Austin | 196.4 | 32 | 42 |
59 | Marques Colston | Dwayne Bowe | 196.3 | 31 | 38 |
60 | Golden Tate | Cecil Shorts | 195.9 | 34 | 45 |
61 | Dwayne Bowe | DeAndre Hopkins | 195.6 | 38 | 43 |
62 | Sammy Watkins | Riley Cooper | 195.4 | 32 | 44 |
63 | Eric Decker | Tavon Austin | 195.4 | 35 | 42 |
64 | Marques Colston | Justin Hunter | 195.2 | 31 | 48 |
65 | Eric Decker | Riley Cooper | 194.9 | 35 | 44 |
66 | Dwayne Bowe | Rueben Randle | 194.7 | 38 | 41 |
67 | Reggie Wayne | Kelvin Benjamin | 194.6 | 36 | 40 |
68 | Terrance Williams | DeAndre Hopkins | 194.6 | 37 | 43 |
69 | Rueben Randle | Cecil Shorts | 194 | 41 | 45 |
70 | Golden Tate | Dwayne Bowe | 193.9 | 34 | 38 |
71 | Reggie Wayne | DeAndre Hopkins | 193.9 | 36 | 43 |
72 | Dwayne Bowe | Cecil Shorts | 193.8 | 38 | 45 |
73 | Eric Decker | Terrance Williams | 193.8 | 35 | 37 |
74 | DeAndre Hopkins | Cecil Shorts | 193.7 | 43 | 45 |
75 | Marques Colston | Hakeem Nicks | 193.7 | 31 | 49 |
76 | Marques Colston | Riley Cooper | 193.6 | 31 | 44 |
77 | Terrance Williams | Rueben Randle | 193.5 | 37 | 41 |
78 | Mike Evans | Cecil Shorts | 193.4 | 39 | 45 |
79 | Dwayne Bowe | Anquan Boldin | 193.1 | 38 | 46 |
80 | Terrance Williams | Dwayne Bowe | 192.9 | 37 | 38 |
81 | Dwayne Bowe | Tavon Austin | 192.1 | 38 | 42 |
82 | Reggie Wayne | Tavon Austin | 192 | 36 | 42 |
83 | Dwayne Bowe | Mike Evans | 192 | 38 | 39 |
84 | Brandin Cooks | DeAndre Hopkins | 191.9 | 33 | 43 |
85 | Eric Decker | Danny Amendola | 191.8 | 35 | 47 |
86 | Terrance Williams | Anquan Boldin | 191.6 | 37 | 46 |
87 | Mike Evans | DeAndre Hopkins | 191.5 | 39 | 43 |
88 | Sammy Watkins | Danny Amendola | 191.5 | 32 | 47 |
89 | Golden Tate | Terrance Williams | 191.3 | 34 | 37 |
90 | Brandin Cooks | Cecil Shorts | 191 | 33 | 45 |
91 | Reggie Wayne | Riley Cooper | 190.8 | 36 | 44 |
92 | Eric Decker | Cecil Shorts | 190.7 | 35 | 45 |
93 | Eric Decker | Hakeem Nicks | 190.7 | 35 | 49 |
94 | Reggie Wayne | Justin Hunter | 190.5 | 36 | 48 |
95 | Eric Decker | Justin Hunter | 190.5 | 35 | 48 |
96 | Eric Decker | Anquan Boldin | 190.3 | 35 | 46 |
97 | Mike Evans | Rueben Randle | 189.8 | 39 | 41 |
98 | Sammy Watkins | Hakeem Nicks | 188.9 | 32 | 49 |
99 | Cecil Shorts | Anquan Boldin | 188.3 | 45 | 46 |
100 | Golden Tate | Rueben Randle | 188.2 | 34 | 41 |
101 | Golden Tate | DeAndre Hopkins | 187.8 | 34 | 43 |
102 | Mike Evans | Anquan Boldin | 187.6 | 39 | 46 |
103 | Dwayne Bowe | Riley Cooper | 187.3 | 38 | 44 |
104 | Golden Tate | Anquan Boldin | 187.2 | 34 | 46 |
105 | Sammy Watkins | Mike Evans | 186.9 | 32 | 39 |
106 | Dwayne Bowe | Kelvin Benjamin | 186.9 | 38 | 40 |
107 | Kelvin Benjamin | Cecil Shorts | 186.6 | 40 | 45 |
108 | Brandin Cooks | Anquan Boldin | 186.4 | 33 | 46 |
109 | Sammy Watkins | Brandin Cooks | 186.4 | 32 | 33 |
110 | Dwayne Bowe | Danny Amendola | 186.3 | 38 | 47 |
111 | Brandin Cooks | Rueben Randle | 186 | 33 | 41 |
112 | Tavon Austin | Cecil Shorts | 185.9 | 42 | 45 |
113 | Terrance Williams | Tavon Austin | 185.9 | 37 | 42 |
114 | Marques Colston | Brandin Cooks | 185.7 | 31 | 33 |
115 | Terrance Williams | Mike Evans | 185.7 | 37 | 39 |
116 | Marques Colston | 0 | 185.7 | 31 | n/a |
117 | Dwayne Bowe | Justin Hunter | 185.5 | 38 | 48 |
118 | Tavon Austin | DeAndre Hopkins | 185.3 | 42 | 43 |
119 | Brandin Cooks | Terrance Williams | 185.2 | 33 | 37 |
120 | Dwayne Bowe | Hakeem Nicks | 185.2 | 38 | 49 |
121 | Sammy Watkins | Kelvin Benjamin | 184.8 | 32 | 40 |
122 | Golden Tate | Tavon Austin | 184.6 | 34 | 42 |
123 | Rueben Randle | Tavon Austin | 184.3 | 41 | 42 |
124 | Reggie Wayne | Danny Amendola | 184.3 | 36 | 47 |
125 | Brandin Cooks | Golden Tate | 184.2 | 33 | 34 |
126 | Golden Tate | Mike Evans | 184.1 | 34 | 39 |
127 | Kelvin Benjamin | Anquan Boldin | 184 | 40 | 46 |
128 | Terrance Williams | Cecil Shorts | 184 | 37 | 45 |
129 | Rueben Randle | DeAndre Hopkins | 183.8 | 41 | 43 |
130 | Kelvin Benjamin | DeAndre Hopkins | 183.6 | 40 | 43 |
131 | Sammy Watkins | Golden Tate | 183.5 | 32 | 34 |
132 | Terrance Williams | Danny Amendola | 183.2 | 37 | 47 |
133 | Cecil Shorts | Danny Amendola | 183.1 | 45 | 47 |
134 | Riley Cooper | Cecil Shorts | 182.9 | 44 | 45 |
135 | Golden Tate | Kelvin Benjamin | 182.3 | 34 | 40 |
136 | Tavon Austin | Anquan Boldin | 182.2 | 42 | 46 |
137 | Golden Tate | Riley Cooper | 182 | 34 | 44 |
138 | Brandin Cooks | Tavon Austin | 181.8 | 33 | 42 |
139 | DeAndre Hopkins | Anquan Boldin | 181.4 | 43 | 46 |
140 | Reggie Wayne | Hakeem Nicks | 181.4 | 36 | 49 |
141 | Reggie Wayne | 0 | 181.4 | 36 | n/a |
142 | Eric Decker | 0 | 181.4 | 35 | n/a |
143 | Kelvin Benjamin | Rueben Randle | 181.3 | 40 | 41 |
144 | Brandin Cooks | Dwayne Bowe | 180.8 | 33 | 38 |
145 | Brandin Cooks | Mike Evans | 180.6 | 33 | 39 |
146 | Terrance Williams | Riley Cooper | 180.5 | 37 | 44 |
147 | Terrance Williams | Kelvin Benjamin | 180.3 | 37 | 40 |
148 | DeAndre Hopkins | Riley Cooper | 180.1 | 43 | 44 |
Table 2: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pairs
As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for WR3BC. Please keep in mind that the top of the chart is going to be skewed a little high this time around as we are still using WR30-36 rather than starting with WR37. Still, there are 77 pairs here that are good for over 125 points. That means if you get the right two receivers, you should be able to score at least 125 points from your WR3BC for this season. But which ones?
I made something new this year, which is a WR3BC Draft Matrix chart. Now, it might be a little tricky to read, so let me explain after I show you the chart:
Second Pick | First Pick | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WR30 | WR31 | WR32 | WR33 | WR34 | WR35 | WR36 | WR37 | WR38 | WR39 | WR40 | WR41 | WR42 | WR43 | WR44 | WR45 | ||
WR30 | Mike Wallace | ||||||||||||||||
WR31 | Marques Colston | 1 | |||||||||||||||
WR32 | Sammy Watkins | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
WR33 | Brandin Cooks | 8 | 14 | ||||||||||||||
WR34 | Golden Tate | 6 | 6 | 16 | 8 | ||||||||||||
WR35 | Eric Decker | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||||
WR36 | Reggie Wayne | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
WR37 | Terrance Williams | 13 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
WR38 | Dwayne Bowe | 11 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||
WR39 | Mike Evans | 15 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | |||||||
WR40 | Kelvin Benjamin | 16 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 8 | ||||||||
WR41 | Rueben Randle | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||
WR42 | Tavon Austin | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
WR43 | DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
WR44 | Riley Cooper | 14 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||||||
WR45 | Cecil Shorts | 10 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
WR46 | Anquan Boldin | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
WR47 | Danny Amendola | 17 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 2 | ||||||||
WR48 | Justin Hunter | 16 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 | |||||||||||
WR49 | Hakeem Nicks | 15 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | ||||||||||
200 | 195 | 190 | 185 | 180 |
Table 3: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Draft Matrix
I know that there are pretty colors and all, but I completely understand if you are confused by Table 3. Let's talk about the colors first. Yellow squares are "unlikely pairs", as they use two receivers at WR30-36, so that's counter of the WR3BC plan - but if you can them, go for it! Second, the pairs of WR37-WR48 backs are highlighted in blue (pairs projected to score 130 or more points) or green (125-130 points).
Now remember that you are targeting a wide receiver to start your pair. I would still go after Dwayne Bowe (WR38) if you can get him in Round 8 or 9, but if not, the matrix is going to help you quite a bit. First, look on the left side of Table 3 - that is the list of wide receivers in ADP order (WR30 - WR48). Naturally, you are targeting a player in the WR30 to WR40 range, so after you get one of those guys, go to the top of the chart and find the column that matches this player. The columns are numbered in the "best pair" order to give you the name of the second back you want to get.
Let's do an example. You get Dwayne Bowe, WR38 in Round 8. You want to get the best player to pair with him, so the WR38 column tells you that there are only two pairs that exceed 125 points - DeAndre Hopkins and Rueben Randle. Another example is that you get sniped on Bowe but Terrance Williams (WR35) slips down to you as your third wide receiver selection. Which WRs go best with him? Looking at the WR35 column the Top 7 pairs are Reggie Wayne, Rueben Randle, Hopkins, Anquan Boldin, Bowe (gone), Tavon Austin and Mike Evans. Note that the color changed from blue for Williams and Bowe to green for the next five pairs, which highlights that the first pairs are projected to give you 190 or more points, while the green pairs are projected to be just 185-190. Clearly you want blue over green, and green over purple.
I hope this helps everyone on Draft Day. Good luck this season.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.