A few weeks ago, I first wrote the WR3BC for PPR leagues article for this season - but as often happens, our members wanted more. With the recent concerns about Dwayne Bowe's finger and both receivers gaining in the ADP (I will refrain from saying I was directly responsible for this), the emails and tweets have rolled in for more advice with concerns about not getting the Dwayne Bowe and Rueben Randle pair. So what else can I do but write an article? This is my attempt to provide a better guide for you on your Draft Day. I will not re-do the entire article here, as you can certainly go back and read the methods for finding the committee pairs in the original article. Today I am only going to focus on what you want - the results.
So Dwayne Bowe is more expensive and there are some injury concerns - does that change the plan? We will get to that, but first we have to talk about the good news vs. the bad news here. Whenever wide receivers go up in ADP, another one falls - and this year, there are 15-20 reasonable guys to target. That makes WR3BC a solid plan, no matter who the receivers turn out to be.
Let's revisit where we are today, starting with the ADP of wide receivers 30-49:
ADP | Player | ADP | Player |
---|---|---|---|
WR30 | Marques Colston | WR40 | DeAndre Hopkins |
WR31 | Sammy Watkins | WR41 | Mike Evans |
WR32 | Kendall Wright | WR42 | Kelvin Benjamin |
WR33 | Golden Tate | WR43 | Tavon Austin |
WR34 | Eric Decker | WR44 | Anquan Boldin |
WR35 | Terrance Williams | WR45 | Rueben Randle |
WR36 | Reggie Wayne | WR46 | Cecil Shorts |
WR37 | Brandin Cooks | WR47 | Hakeem Nicks |
WR38 | Dwayne Bowe | WR48 | Danny Amendola |
WR39 | Riley Cooper |
Table 1: Wide Receivers WR30-WR49 Based on PPR ADP
But wait a minute - why did I go to WR30? The reason now is to cover you, in case the ADP get shuffled again. Your committee will certainly be better if you can land one or two receivers with ADPs of 30-36, but that is a best case scenario. Most likely you will have to grab two wide receivers after WR36, but if any of them start to shuffle in the ADP list, you will now have a handy dandy chart (coming down below) to use as a reference.
So now we have 20 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 190 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Just like before, I am going to use their weekly projected fantasy points to combine all 190 pairs to figure out which are the best ones. Table 2 contains the results for the top pairs:
Rank | Running Back 1 | Running Back 2 | Value | ADP1 | ADP2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kendall Wright | Terrance Williams | 136.7 | 32 | 35 |
2 | Kendall Wright | Eric Decker | 135.8 | 32 | 34 |
3 | Marques Colston | Eric Decker | 134.9 | 30 | 34 |
4 | Kendall Wright | Mike Evans | 134.4 | 32 | 41 |
5 | Marques Colston | Sammy Watkins | 134.2 | 30 | 31 |
6 | Kendall Wright | Dwayne Bowe | 133.8 | 32 | 38 |
7 | Marques Colston | Kendall Wright | 133.7 | 30 | 32 |
8 | Sammy Watkins | Eric Decker | 133.5 | 31 | 34 |
9 | Eric Decker | Reggie Wayne | 133.4 | 34 | 36 |
10 | Eric Decker | Kelvin Benjamin | 132.9 | 34 | 42 |
11 | Kendall Wright | DeAndre Hopkins | 132.9 | 32 | 40 |
12 | Kendall Wright | Reggie Wayne | 132.4 | 32 | 36 |
13 | Marques Colston | DeAndre Hopkins | 132.1 | 30 | 40 |
14 | Sammy Watkins | Reggie Wayne | 131.9 | 31 | 36 |
15 | Kendall Wright | Rueben Randle | 131.9 | 32 | 45 |
16 | Marques Colston | Terrance Williams | 131.8 | 30 | 35 |
17 | Marques Colston | Mike Evans | 131.8 | 30 | 41 |
18 | Marques Colston | Reggie Wayne | 131.6 | 30 | 36 |
19 | Kendall Wright | Anquan Boldin | 131.6 | 32 | 44 |
20 | Sammy Watkins | Terrance Williams | 131.4 | 31 | 35 |
21 | Terrance Williams | Reggie Wayne | 131.4 | 35 | 36 |
22 | Kendall Wright | Kelvin Benjamin | 131.1 | 32 | 42 |
23 | Sammy Watkins | Cecil Shorts | 130.9 | 31 | 46 |
24 | Eric Decker | Dwayne Bowe | 130.8 | 34 | 38 |
25 | Sammy Watkins | Rueben Randle | 130.8 | 31 | 45 |
26 | Terrance Williams | Rueben Randle | 130.7 | 35 | 45 |
27 | Kendall Wright | Cecil Shorts | 130.7 | 32 | 46 |
28 | Marques Colston | Rueben Randle | 130.5 | 30 | 45 |
29 | Marques Colston | Golden Tate | 130.4 | 30 | 33 |
30 | Eric Decker | Brandin Cooks | 130.4 | 34 | 37 |
31 | Sammy Watkins | DeAndre Hopkins | 130.3 | 31 | 40 |
32 | Kendall Wright | Tavon Austin | 130.3 | 32 | 43 |
33 | Eric Decker | Rueben Randle | 130.2 | 34 | 45 |
34 | Golden Tate | Eric Decker | 130 | 33 | 34 |
35 | Kendall Wright | Brandin Cooks | 129.7 | 32 | 37 |
36 | Sammy Watkins | Anquan Boldin | 129.7 | 31 | 44 |
37 | Eric Decker | Mike Evans | 129.6 | 34 | 41 |
38 | Reggie Wayne | Dwayne Bowe | 129.4 | 36 | 38 |
39 | Sammy Watkins | Kendall Wright | 129.3 | 31 | 32 |
40 | Terrance Williams | DeAndre Hopkins | 129.2 | 35 | 40 |
41 | Eric Decker | Riley Cooper | 129.2 | 34 | 39 |
42 | Sammy Watkins | Dwayne Bowe | 129.1 | 31 | 38 |
43 | Golden Tate | Reggie Wayne | 128.9 | 33 | 36 |
44 | Marques Colston | Anquan Boldin | 128.9 | 30 | 44 |
45 | Kendall Wright | Riley Cooper | 128.9 | 32 | 39 |
46 | Sammy Watkins | Riley Cooper | 128.7 | 31 | 39 |
47 | Eric Decker | Terrance Williams | 128.7 | 34 | 35 |
48 | Eric Decker | DeAndre Hopkins | 128.7 | 34 | 40 |
49 | Marques Colston | Kelvin Benjamin | 128.5 | 30 | 42 |
50 | Golden Tate | Terrance Williams | 128.3 | 33 | 35 |
51 | Eric Decker | Tavon Austin | 128.2 | 34 | 43 |
52 | Terrance Williams | Anquan Boldin | 128.1 | 35 | 44 |
53 | Kendall Wright | Danny Amendola | 128.1 | 32 | 48 |
54 | Reggie Wayne | Anquan Boldin | 128 | 36 | 44 |
55 | Reggie Wayne | Rueben Randle | 127.9 | 36 | 45 |
56 | Sammy Watkins | Tavon Austin | 127.4 | 31 | 43 |
57 | Marques Colston | Tavon Austin | 127.3 | 30 | 43 |
58 | Reggie Wayne | Brandin Cooks | 127.1 | 36 | 37 |
59 | Reggie Wayne | Mike Evans | 126.9 | 36 | 41 |
60 | Terrance Williams | Dwayne Bowe | 126.8 | 35 | 38 |
61 | Mike Evans | Rueben Randle | 126.7 | 41 | 45 |
62 | Golden Tate | Cecil Shorts | 126.6 | 33 | 46 |
63 | Kendall Wright | Golden Tate | 126.6 | 32 | 33 |
64 | Kendall Wright | Hakeem Nicks | 126.1 | 32 | 47 |
65 | Marques Colston | Cecil Shorts | 126 | 30 | 46 |
66 | Golden Tate | Dwayne Bowe | 126 | 33 | 38 |
67 | DeAndre Hopkins | Mike Evans | 125.9 | 40 | 41 |
68 | Dwayne Bowe | DeAndre Hopkins | 125.8 | 38 | 40 |
69 | Dwayne Bowe | Rueben Randle | 125.8 | 38 | 45 |
70 | Golden Tate | Rueben Randle | 125.6 | 33 | 45 |
71 | Rueben Randle | Cecil Shorts | 125.6 | 45 | 46 |
72 | Marques Colston | Riley Cooper | 125.4 | 30 | 39 |
73 | Brandin Cooks | DeAndre Hopkins | 125.3 | 37 | 40 |
74 | Eric Decker | Danny Amendola | 125.2 | 34 | 48 |
75 | Terrance Williams | Tavon Austin | 125.1 | 35 | 43 |
76 | Terrance Williams | Mike Evans | 125 | 35 | 41 |
77 | Eric Decker | Hakeem Nicks | 125 | 34 | 47 |
Table 2: PPR Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pairs
As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for WR3BC. Please keep in mind that the top of the chart is going to be skewed a little high this time around as we are still using WR30-36 rather than starting with WR37. Still, there are 95 pairs here that are good for over 190 points, plus one player (Mike Wallace) who exceeds that number on his own. That means if you get the right two receivers, you should be able to score at least 190 points from your WR3BC for this season. But which ones?
I made something new this year, which is a WR3BC PPR Draft Matrix chart. Now, it might be a little tricky to read, so let me explain after I show you the chart:
Second Pick | First Pick | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WR30 | WR31 | WR32 | WR33 | WR34 | WR35 | WR36 | WR37 | WR38 | WR40 | WR41 | WR45 | ||
WR30 | Marques Colston | ||||||||||||
WR31 | Sammy Watkins | 2 | |||||||||||
WR32 | Kendall Wright | 3 | 8 | ||||||||||
WR33 | Golden Tate | 9 | 15 | ||||||||||
WR34 | Eric Decker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
WR35 | Terrance Williams | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |||||||
WR36 | Reggie Wayne | 7 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
WR37 | Brandin Cooks | 12 | 4 | 4 | |||||||||
WR38 | Dwayne Bowe | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
WR39 | Riley Cooper | 14 | 10 | 13 | 7 | ||||||||
WR40 | DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||
WR41 | Mike Evans | 6 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
WR42 | Kelvin Benjamin | 11 | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
WR43 | Tavon Austin | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 6 | |||||||
WR44 | Anquan Boldin | 10 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||||||
WR45 | Rueben Randle | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
WR46 | Cecil Shorts | 13 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
WR47 | Hakeem Nicks | 16 | 12 | ||||||||||
WR48 | Danny Amendola | 14 | 11 | ||||||||||
130 | 125 |
Table 3: PPR Wide Receiver #3 Committee Draft Matrix
I know that there are pretty colors and all, but I completely understand if you are confused by Table 3. Let's talk about the colors first. Yellow squares are "unlikely pairs", as they use two receivers at WR30-36, so that's counter of the WR3BC plan - but if you can them, go for it! Second, the pairs of WR37-WR49 backs are highlighted in blue (pairs projected to score 130 or more points) or green (125 - 130).
Now remember that you are targeting a wide receiver to start your pair. I would still go after Dwayne Bowe (WR38) if you can get him in Round 8 or 9, but if not, the matrix is going to help you quite a bit. First, look on the left side of Table 3 - that is the list of wide receivers in ADP order (WR30 - WR49). Naturally, you are targeting a player in the WR30 to WR40 range, so after you get one of those guys, go to the top of the chart and find the column that matches this player. The columns are numbered in the "best pair" order to give you the name of the second back you want to get.
Let's do an example. You get Dwayne Bowe, WR38 in Round 8. You want to get the best player to pair with him, so the WR38 column tells you that the best pairs, in order, are DeAndre Hopkins and Rueben Randle. Ideally you get Randle to pair with Bowe. Another example is that you get sniped on Bowe and you have get Terrance Williams as your third receiver instead. Which WRs go best with him? Williams is WR35, and moving to that column the Top 4 targets are Reggie Wayne, Randle, Hopkins and Anquan Boldin. Note that the color changed from blue for the first two pairs to green, which highlights that the first two are projected to give you 130 or more points, while the green pairs are projected to be just 125-130. Clearly you want blue over green.
I hope this helps everyone on Draft Day. Good luck this season.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.