Over the past few years, there have been two very popular articles written by our very own Chase Stuart that look at an interesting approach to building a fantasy team with late value picks. Based upon the theory of using both Strength of Schedule ("SOS") and taking two players as a combination to build one very good player, he has discussed both Team Defense by Committee ("TDBC") and Quarterback by Committee ("QBBC") as a general fantasy league strategy. In general I think that this is a wise move because very early on in fantasy drafts there are a ton of RB and WR prospects to go after to build a great team. While there are a few studs at QB and also a few choice defenses, I do not see a huge need in leagues to pursue either too hard in the beginning stages of a fantasy draft.
So with this in mind, I started to think about what else can be done with the committee approach. Tight end? Perhaps. Running back? Maybe. Wide receiver? Hmmm, that's really intriguing, but we should probably look at say the third starting option - "Fantasy WR3". What if you could grab two wide receivers later in the draft that could combine to perform on a WR3 - or even WR2 - level, based solely on their current projections and their schedule? Now we're talking. This really got my attention, so I went after this. Let's take a look at how I went about this and then we can digest and discuss the results.
ELIGIBLE RECEIVERS
So how to begin? Defenses and quarterbacks are relatively easy to "committee" together. There's usually only one QB and certainly only one team defense per NFL club, so the approach is pretty simple as far as picking out which players / teams to try and pair up. When it comes to wide receivers, the line is not quite so easy to draw, but I needed some basis to pick which players it made sense to try and combine for a decent committee. I decided that I would use the following criteria to decide which players to start with for evaluating:
CRITERIA #1 - WR37 AND BEYOND
This seems pretty simple. If we want to have a duo that puts up WR3 numbers, that means we want WR36 or better production - else we would just draft WR36 or higher and forget the whole idea. So here is the list of players with which I started, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP):
ADP | Player | ADP | Player |
WR37 | Anquan Boldin | WR50 | Vincent Brown |
WR38 | Danario Alexander* | WR51 | Brian Hartline |
WR39 | Josh Gordon | WR52 | Ryan Broyles |
WR40 | Lance Moore | WR53 | Cordarrelle Patterson |
WR41 | Denarius Moore | WR54 | Aaron Dobson |
WR42 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR55 | Rueben Randle |
WR43 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR56 | Darrius Heyward-Bey |
WR44 | Justin Blackmon | WR57 | Golden Tate |
WR45 | Sidney Rice | WR58 | Greg Little |
WR46 | Michael Floyd | WR59 | Malcom Floyd |
WR47 | Chris Givens | WR60 | Santonio Holmes |
WR48 | Kendall Wright | WR61 | Jacoby Jones |
WR49 | Alshon Jeffery |
Table 1: Wide Receivers WR37-WR61 Based on ADP
Note that Danario Alexander is included in Table 1, but since he recently tore his ACL, he will not be considered.
Great, now we have 24 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 276 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Now, before I go over the method of how to pair them up and the results, we need one more rule:
CRITERIA #2 - NO MORE THAN ONE WR FROM ROUND 7 AND ONE FROM ROUND 8.
This could get tricky here, but understand the overall goal. The point of WR3BC is to "free up" the first 6 rounds of your fantasy draft to pursue 2-3 receivers (especially in PPR leagues) after grabbing a stud RB in Round 1. After six rounds you can have 2-3RBs, 2-3 WRs and possibly even a stud QB or TE, depending on your personal preference, or even to get your WR3 have the "WR3BC" be your WR4. Flexibility is the name of the game here. We all want value in our drafts, and having the ability to grab two WRs in Rounds 7 and 8 to act as our WR3BC gives us that ability.
There is some good news – all of the WR3BC candidates have ADPs that are after Round 7. There are some wide receivers that might go in Round 8, so planning on taking two of them could leave you scrambling for your ninth pick if you wait too long for your WR3BC choice. I will have to keep all those details in mind when we look at the WR3BC result because it would not make sense to expect two of these receivers to make it into a committee combination based on their ADP.
So what do we do now to figure out some WR pairs?
CRITERIA #3 - USE FOOTBALLGUYS' WR STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
This sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Just take the WR Strength of Schedule to figure out when certain players are more likely to score well. What I did is similar to what the Projections Dominator and Draft Dominator do for you - take the projected fantasy points and slice them up over 16 weeks based on the strength of schedule. I call this result the "distributed fantasy points" for each receiver.
After I had all 24 wide receivers with distributed fantasy points on a weekly basis, I just compared all of the possible WR pairs to find the best duos for WR3BC. So here we are - time for some results.
Rank | Wide Receiver 1 | Wide Receiver 2 | Value |
1 | Lance Moore | Justin Blackmon | 150.9 |
2 | Denarius Moore | Justin Blackmon | 150.5 |
3 | Josh Gordon | Justin Blackmon | 149.3 |
4 | Emmanuel Sanders | Justin Blackmon | 146.6 |
5 | Sidney Rice | Justin Blackmon | 146.4 |
6 | Vincent Brown | Justin Blackmon | 145.6 |
7 | Kendall Wright | Justin Blackmon | 145.3 |
8 | Anquan Boldin | Justin Blackmon | 143.2 |
9 | Chris Givens | Justin Blackmon | 142.8 |
10 | Justin Blackmon | Brian Hartline | 142.3 |
11 | Justin Blackmon | Golden Tate | 142.0 |
12 | Anquan Boldin | Lance Moore | 141.6 |
13 | Michael Floyd | Justin Blackmon | 140.9 |
14 | Anquan Boldin | Emmanuel Sanders | 140.4 |
15 | Anquan Boldin | Denarius Moore | 139.3 |
16 | Justin Blackmon | Greg Little | 139.2 |
17 | DeAndre Hopkins | Justin Blackmon | 138.6 |
18 | Justin Blackmon | Alshon Jeffery | 138.4 |
19 | Emmanuel Sanders | Lance Moore | 137.9 |
20 | Anquan Boldin | Josh Gordon | 137.6 |
21 | Anquan Boldin | Chris Givens | 137.3 |
22 | Justin Blackmon | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 136.6 |
23 | Anquan Boldin | Kendall Wright | 136.5 |
24 | Josh Gordon | Emmanuel Sanders | 136.3 |
25 | Anquan Boldin | Sidney Rice | 136.3 |
26 | Anquan Boldin | DeAndre Hopkins | 136.2 |
27 | Josh Gordon | Lance Moore | 135.1 |
28 | Denarius Moore | Josh Gordon | 135.1 |
29 | Justin Blackmon | Malcom Floyd | 134.7 |
30 | Denarius Moore | Emmanuel Sanders | 134.6 |
31 | Emmanuel Sanders | Kendall Wright | 134.4 |
32 | Anquan Boldin | Vincent Brown | 134.2 |
33 | Anquan Boldin | Brian Hartline | 134.2 |
34 | Josh Gordon | Michael Floyd | 134.2 |
35 | Lance Moore | DeAndre Hopkins | 133.8 |
36 | Justin Blackmon | Jacoby Jones | 133.8 |
37 | Emmanuel Sanders | Sidney Rice | 133.7 |
38 | Emmanuel Sanders | Michael Floyd | 133.4 |
39 | Lance Moore | Kendall Wright | 133.4 |
40 | Anquan Boldin | Golden Tate | 133.4 |
41 | Josh Gordon | Kendall Wright | 133.4 |
42 | Lance Moore | Sidney Rice | 132.4 |
43 | Josh Gordon | DeAndre Hopkins | 132.3 |
44 | Emmanuel Sanders | Chris Givens | 132.2 |
45 | Lance Moore | Michael Floyd | 132.0 |
46 | Denarius Moore | DeAndre Hopkins | 131.9 |
47 | Denarius Moore | Kendall Wright | 131.4 |
48 | Lance Moore | Chris Givens | 131.3 |
49 | Justin Blackmon | Santonio Holmes | 131.3 |
50 | Emmanuel Sanders | DeAndre Hopkins | 131.1 |
51 | Anquan Boldin | Greg Little | 131.1 |
52 | Justin Blackmon | Cordarrelle Patterson | 131.1 |
53 | Josh Gordon | Chris Givens | 131.1 |
54 | Anquan Boldin | Alshon Jeffery | 130.9 |
55 | Denarius Moore | Sidney Rice | 130.7 |
56 | Anquan Boldin | Cordarrelle Patterson | 130.5 |
57 | Emmanuel Sanders | Vincent Brown | 130.4 |
58 | Anquan Boldin | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 130.3 |
59 | Anquan Boldin | Malcom Floyd | 130.3 |
60 | Emmanuel Sanders | Golden Tate | 130.2 |
61 | Emmanuel Sanders | Brian Hartline | 129.9 |
62 | Anquan Boldin | Jacoby Jones | 129.9 |
63 | Anquan Boldin | Michael Floyd | 129.8 |
64 | Denarius Moore | Lance Moore | 129.8 |
65 | Denarius Moore | Michael Floyd | 129.6 |
66 | Lance Moore | Vincent Brown | 129.6 |
67 | Anquan Boldin | Santonio Holmes | 129.3 |
68 | Josh Gordon | Sidney Rice | 129.0 |
69 | Josh Gordon | Brian Hartline | 128.8 |
70 | Michael Floyd | Sidney Rice | 128.8 |
71 | Emmanuel Sanders | Alshon Jeffery | 128.6 |
72 | Anquan Boldin | Aaron Dobson | 128.5 |
73 | Kendall Wright | Chris Givens | 128.5 |
74 | Denarius Moore | Vincent Brown | 128.2 |
75 | Denarius Moore | Brian Hartline | 128.0 |
76 | Justin Blackmon | Rueben Randle | 128.0 |
77 | Lance Moore | Brian Hartline | 127.9 |
78 | Emmanuel Sanders | Greg Little | 127.7 |
79 | Michael Floyd | DeAndre Hopkins | 127.6 |
80 | Kendall Wright | Sidney Rice | 127.6 |
81 | Michael Floyd | Chris Givens | 127.6 |
82 | Lance Moore | Golden Tate | 127.5 |
83 | Denarius Moore | Chris Givens | 127.5 |
84 | Josh Gordon | Vincent Brown | 127.3 |
85 | Kendall Wright | Michael Floyd | 127.2 |
86 | Denarius Moore | Golden Tate | 127.0 |
87 | Emmanuel Sanders | Ryan Broyles | 126.9 |
88 | Justin Blackmon | Aaron Dobson | 126.9 |
89 | Michael Floyd | Vincent Brown | 126.9 |
90 | Denarius Moore | Greg Little | 126.8 |
91 | Emmanuel Sanders | Rueben Randle | 126.5 |
92 | Kendall Wright | Brian Hartline | 126.5 |
93 | Denarius Moore | Alshon Jeffery | 126.5 |
94 | Emmanuel Sanders | Malcom Floyd | 126.2 |
95 | Emmanuel Sanders | Jacoby Jones | 126.0 |
96 | Lance Moore | Greg Little | 125.9 |
97 | Emmanuel Sanders | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 125.7 |
98 | Denarius Moore | Cordarrelle Patterson | 125.6 |
99 | Sidney Rice | Chris Givens | 125.6 |
100 | Lance Moore | Alshon Jeffery | 125.5 |
101 | Josh Gordon | Cordarrelle Patterson | 125.5 |
102 | Justin Blackmon | Ryan Broyles | 125.4 |
103 | Josh Gordon | Alshon Jeffery | 125.1 |
104 | Josh Gordon | Golden Tate | 125.0 |
105 | Emmanuel Sanders | Aaron Dobson | 125.0 |
106 | Denarius Moore | Rueben Randle | 124.9 |
107 | Josh Gordon | Ryan Broyles | 124.7 |
108 | Anquan Boldin | Ryan Broyles | 124.6 |
109 | Anquan Boldin | Rueben Randle | 124.6 |
110 | Anquan Boldin | n/a | 124.6 |
Table 2: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pairs
As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for WR3BC. Unlike last year, we have a ton of options that meet or exceed WR37 (Anquan Boldin) by himself. With 109 different duos to select from, there will be lots of options to try and find a very strong pair for 2013. To challenge this option further, I am baselining the target WR3BC goal at WR33, T.Y. Hilton, who is projected to have 126 fantasy points in 2013. To make it both more fair and more challenging, I added six points for Hilton’s bye week, as a WR37-WR60 type player would be inserted into the lineup for Austin for that game, so our target for a successful WR3BC had better achieve 132 or more fantasy points. That reduces the list from Table 2 to 45 pairs that provide 132 or more fantasy points and combine favorably as a WR3. Let's also take a look at how often some of these guys show up on the table:
Wide Receiver | Frq | Wide Receiver | Frq |
Justin Blackmon | 18 | Chris Givens | 3 |
Anquan Boldin | 12 | Brian Hartline | 2 |
Emmanuel Sanders | 9 | Golden Tate | 2 |
Josh Gordon | 8 | Vincent Brown | 2 |
Lance Moore | 8 | Alshon Jeffery | 1 |
Kendall Wright | 5 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | Greg Little | 1 |
Denarius Moore | 4 | Jacoby Jones | 1 |
Michael Floyd | 4 | Malcom Floyd | 1 |
Sidney Rice | 4 |
Table 3: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pair Appearances by Player
As we can see from Table 3, Justin Blackmon dominates the list, with Anquan Boldin claiming a strong second spot. Three other WRs show up on this list at least five times –Emmanuel Sanders, Josh Gordon, Lance Moore and Kendall Wright. All of these names should surprise no one that read Table 1, as these six guys are all near the Top of the WR37 and beyond ADP list. The most intriguing player by far is Justin Blackmon. Had he not be suspended for the first four games, his ADP would likely have been well in the WR3 range, but as a result of the forced vacation his ADP has dropped all the way down to WR44. Provided he is healthy and gets decent quarterback play, Blackmon will be a true steal in the WR40-45 range and be a key part of a WR3BC approach this season.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Now that we have over 40 possible pairs to construct a WR3BC, what exactly does that mean? Should WR33, T.Y. Hilton, be the basis of our comparison? Of course not. Remember our goal - find a pair of wide receivers that can combine for WR3 (or better) fantasy production. To figure that out we need a better metric, so here are the projections for WR13 through WR36 (with a few extra receivers), sorted by projected fantasy points:
ADP | WR Rank | Player | FPs | FP Rank |
43 | 14 | Jordy Nelson | 158.7 | 13 |
44 | 15 | Marques Colston | 154.2 | 14 |
46 | 16 | Dwayne Bowe | 152.2 | 15 |
65 | 24 | Antonio Brown | 149.1 | 16 |
67 | 25 | Steve Smith | 146.7 | 17 |
63 | 22 | Torrey Smith | 144.7 | 18 |
58 | 21 | Eric Decker | 143.9 | 19 |
79 | 30 | Cecil Shorts | 142.3 | 20 |
49 | 17 | Reggie Wayne | 141.5 | 21 |
50 | 18 | Hakeem Nicks | 138.8 | 22 |
42 | 13 | Wes Welker | 138.1 | 23 |
52 | 19 | Danny Amendola | 137.4 | 24 |
64 | 23 | Pierre Garcon | 137.3 | 25 |
56 | 20 | Mike Wallace | 136.6 | 26 |
86 | 35 | Mike Williams | 135.1 | 27 |
81 | 32 | DeSean Jackson | 133.7 | 28 |
78 | 29 | Steve Johnson | 132.8 | 29 |
74 | 27 | Greg Jennings | 131.7 | 30 |
85 | 34 | Miles Austin | 130.9 | 31 |
77 | 28 | Tavon Austin | 126.5 | 32 |
84 | 33 | T.Y. Hilton | 126 | 33 |
89 | 37 | Anquan Boldin | 124.7 | 34 |
71 | 26 | James Jones | 124.2 | 35 |
120 | 43 | Emmanuel Sanders | 121.1 | 36 |
111 | 41 | Denarius Moore | 119.7 | 37 |
99 | 39 | Josh Gordon | 119.1 | 38 |
Table 4: Projected Fantasy Points for WRs 13-38
Based on Table 4, we see that WRs beyond the Top 15 are really jumbled all over the place. Some are going too early in drafts (Wes Welker, Mike Wallace) based on current projections, while others are available at what appears to be a discount. Filtering through all of this "noise", we see some players that catch our eye. Steve Johnson (WR29, 132.8 fantasy points projected) is the last of the "upper tier" of wideouts that are projected to top 132 fantasy points in 2012. Taking the 132 point target and adding six points for a bye week filler, we next look at our possible pairs to see how many exceed 138 projected points for 2013, and the answer is a solid 18 pairs, with three more just missing the cut. Digging a little deeper, the top five pairs line up well against Hakeem Nicks (WR22), Wes Welker (WR23) and Danny Amendola (WR24). This tells us that choosing the correct pair can give us the result we wanted – high end WR3 production (and borderline WR2) on the cheap.
Considering all of the results, the recipe looks very clear - get Justin Blackmon. Nabbing him in Round 7 or Round 8 allows you to choose from several other WRs that will post numbers comparable to a WR3. Even with the uncertainty at quarterback in Jacksonville and a slight injury concern for Blackmon, all of that should be settled down by Week 5 when Blackmon should be back in action. Blackmon offers several pairing possibilities, led by Lance Moore and Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders is the cheaper option with an ADP that should make him available later, whereas Moore could be gone before Blackmon and should be in most drafts. That is why I am recommending Justin Blackmon and Emmanuel Sanders as the WR3BC for 2013. Take Blackmon in Round 7 (late) or Round 8 (early) and follow up with Sanders in Round 8 or 9 to secure the value. Another option would be to take Lance Moore right after Blackmon if he was to still be available, and smart owners with a flex spot would still snap up Sanders if he lasted to Round 10.
For thoroughness Table 5 should be your guide on Fantasy Draft Day if you attempt to use WR3BC:
Rank | Wide Receiver 1 | Wide Receiver 2 | Value | ADP1 | ADP2 |
1 | Lance Moore | Justin Blackmon | 150.9 | 40 | 44 |
2 | Denarius Moore | Justin Blackmon | 150.5 | 41 | 44 |
3 | Josh Gordon | Justin Blackmon | 149.3 | 39 | 44 |
4 | Emmanuel Sanders | Justin Blackmon | 146.6 | 43 | 44 |
5 | Sidney Rice | Justin Blackmon | 146.4 | 45 | 44 |
6 | Vincent Brown | Justin Blackmon | 145.6 | 50 | 44 |
7 | Kendall Wright | Justin Blackmon | 145.3 | 48 | 44 |
8 | Anquan Boldin | Justin Blackmon | 143.2 | 37 | 44 |
9 | Chris Givens | Justin Blackmon | 142.8 | 47 | 44 |
10 | Justin Blackmon | Brian Hartline | 142.3 | 44 | 51 |
11 | Justin Blackmon | Golden Tate | 142 | 44 | 57 |
12 | Anquan Boldin | Lance Moore | 141.6 | 37 | 40 |
13 | Michael Floyd | Justin Blackmon | 140.9 | 46 | 44 |
14 | Anquan Boldin | Emmanuel Sanders | 140.4 | 37 | 43 |
15 | Anquan Boldin | Denarius Moore | 139.3 | 37 | 41 |
16 | Justin Blackmon | Greg Little | 139.2 | 44 | 58 |
17 | DeAndre Hopkins | Justin Blackmon | 138.6 | 42 | 44 |
18 | Justin Blackmon | Alshon Jeffery | 138.4 | 44 | 49 |
19 | Emmanuel Sanders | Lance Moore | 137.9 | 43 | 40 |
20 | Anquan Boldin | Josh Gordon | 137.6 | 37 | 39 |
21 | Anquan Boldin | Chris Givens | 137.3 | 37 | 47 |
22 | Justin Blackmon | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 136.6 | 44 | 56 |
23 | Anquan Boldin | Kendall Wright | 136.5 | 37 | 48 |
24 | Josh Gordon | Emmanuel Sanders | 136.3 | 39 | 43 |
25 | Anquan Boldin | Sidney Rice | 136.3 | 37 | 45 |
26 | Anquan Boldin | DeAndre Hopkins | 136.2 | 37 | 42 |
27 | Josh Gordon | Lance Moore | 135.1 | 39 | 40 |
28 | Denarius Moore | Josh Gordon | 135.1 | 41 | 39 |
29 | Justin Blackmon | Malcom Floyd | 134.7 | 44 | 59 |
30 | Denarius Moore | Emmanuel Sanders | 134.6 | 41 | 43 |
31 | Emmanuel Sanders | Kendall Wright | 134.4 | 43 | 48 |
32 | Anquan Boldin | Vincent Brown | 134.2 | 37 | 50 |
33 | Anquan Boldin | Brian Hartline | 134.2 | 37 | 51 |
34 | Josh Gordon | Michael Floyd | 134.2 | 39 | 46 |
35 | Lance Moore | DeAndre Hopkins | 133.8 | 40 | 42 |
36 | Justin Blackmon | Jacoby Jones | 133.8 | 44 | 61 |
37 | Emmanuel Sanders | Sidney Rice | 133.7 | 43 | 45 |
38 | Emmanuel Sanders | Michael Floyd | 133.4 | 43 | 46 |
39 | Lance Moore | Kendall Wright | 133.4 | 40 | 48 |
40 | Anquan Boldin | Golden Tate | 133.4 | 37 | 57 |
41 | Josh Gordon | Kendall Wright | 133.4 | 39 | 48 |
42 | Lance Moore | Sidney Rice | 132.4 | 40 | 45 |
43 | Josh Gordon | DeAndre Hopkins | 132.3 | 39 | 42 |
44 | Emmanuel Sanders | Chris Givens | 132.2 | 43 | 47 |
45 | Lance Moore | Michael Floyd | 132 | 40 | 46 |
Table 5: Top 45 WR3BC Options for 2013
Here is a final summary of the combined schedules for Justin Blackmon and Emmanuel Sanders, and when the committee approach suggests starting each one:
Wk | Suggested Player | Opponent |
1 | Emmanuel Sanders | Tennessee |
2 | Emmanuel Sanders | at Cincinnati |
3 | Emmanuel Sanders | Chicago |
4 | Emmanuel Sanders | at Minnesota |
5 | Justin Blackmon | at St. Louis |
6 | Justin Blackmon | at Denver |
7 | Justin Blackmon | San Diego |
8 | Justin Blackmon | San Francisco |
9 | Emmanuel Sanders | at New England |
10 | Justin Blackmon | at Tennessee |
11 | Justin Blackmon | Arizona |
12 | Justin Blackmon | at Houston |
13 | Justin Blackmon | at Cleveland |
14 | Justin Blackmon | Houston |
15 | Justin Blackmon | Buffalo |
16 | Justin Blackmon | at Kansas City |
Table 6: Suggested WR3BC Schedule Plan
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.