With fading comes great responsibility. Anytime we go against the crowd we enter a risk/reward proposition and become more susceptible to luck of all formats. So it’s here, at the dawn of Week 4, I will kindly remind that when you play in tournaments there will be weeks of chaos. The strategy is to pay the buy-in every week and eventually land the roster that pays dividends. We need to remember that tournaments are not a profitable investment… except when they are.
Last week DeMarco Murray was heavily owned (over 20%) and he delivered his third consecutive 100-yard game with a touchdown. Gio Bernard was also a hot buy and he stepped up and delivered as well with two scores. Even with bigger salaries, these guys were worth every penny, despite some other bargains at running back in Week 3.
Calvin Johnson and Jordy Nelson also looked like values despite being some of the most expensive wide receivers (another reason to have gone cheaper at RB), but the Green Bay - Detroit contest was a fantasy disappointment. Sometimes things (and games) just do not break your way. Detroit and Green Bay are two good teams to look for a bounceback performance this week. With that in mind, here are some trends heading into Week 4 based on Thursday lineups:
QUARTERBACKS
Week 4 is a bit tricky with six teams on a bye. The most common quarterbacks on lineups for Week 4 are Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck. All three could be productive, but I like Brees the most here despite his big price tag of $9,200. Getting the target of 3x of his salary looks a bit tough (27.6 points), as that would take almost 400 yards passing and three touchdowns. I suggest fading Brees and looking for a better bargain for your quarterback.
The following quarterbacks are some of the least owned yet are rated among the Top 15 by David Dodds for Week 4: Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Nick Foles, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton and Tom Brady. Even Teddy Bridgewater offers some value as he is very lightly owned at just 1.5% of teams on Thursday. There is plenty of talent on this list, and several of these guys are expected to be in high-scoring affairs. Tony Romo looked good last week in the comeback against the Rams, and he must square off against Brees and the Saints on Sunday Night Football. A stack of Tony Romo ($7,500) with Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams or even Jason Witten should be considered.
The other big matchup of the week is in San Francisco, with the Eagles visiting the 49ers. Both Nick Foles (2.4%, $8,300) and Kaepernick (5.3%, $8,100) have reasonable chances to top 25 fantasy points and provide solid GPP value for tournament lineups this week.
Matthew Stafford ($8,600) takes Detroit to face the woeful secondary of the New York Jets this week, but Calvin Johnson is questionable. That may appear to limit Stafford's upside, but the Lions have two good receiving running backs and Golden Tate could provide enough receiving talent to help Stafford post solid numbers and post 20+ points this week. Stafford is best, of course, if Calvin Johnson is active, as he gives Stafford the best chance to break that 25-point barrier to make him worth his hefty salary.
Ben Roethlisberger ($7,700) is one of the cheaper quarterbacks worth considering in Week 4. Tampa Bay made Matt Ryan look fantastic last week, and the Steelers could roll up a big score in Pittsburgh for their only home game in the stretch of five weeks.
RUNNING BACKS
Week 4 is a rough one for the running back position. Jamaal Charles is still a question mark, while Marshawn Lynch, Giovani Bernard and Montee Ball are all off for their bye week. Looking at the Top 20 projected backs this week contains several names that were never even considered in August for drafts, yet here they are with fantasy production and are worth starter consideration. Let's dig in to the list.
With so many top backs off this week and both Rashad Jennings and Alfred Morris already done on Thursday, the list is pretty sparse for top running back options. That means true RB1s are going to be over-owned in GPP contests, as we see from Thursday numbers on LeVeon Bell ($8,800 / 25.1% owned), Matt Forte ($8,600 / 15%) and DeMarco Murray ($9,000 / 15%). As stated with the quarterbacks, getting 3x value at such lofty salaries is going to be a challenge for these guys. As Justin mentioned before, this is the position to really bargain hunt.
There are already a few backs that are over-owned this week, led by Donald Brown ($6,300 / 27.6%) with the Chargers. Brown has the perfect storm for Week 4 - no Danny Woodhead, few other backs playing this week, and Jacksonville coming to town. Brown could easily get 30 touches, 150+ yards and two scores this week as Eddie Royal can't keep stealing the 3-yard touchdowns every contest. I like Brown to outperform his cheap salary and push for 20+ points this week.
Two other running backs are owned by more than 10% of teams in Thursday night tournaments. Lamar Miller ($6,900 / 15.4%) gets to face the Oakland Raiders in London in Week 4 with no Knowshon Moreno to steal snaps or touches, and Miller had over 100 yards rushing last week against Kansas City. Ahmad Bradshaw ($6,100 / 12.4%) is also getting a lot of DFS attention, and a home contest against the Titans should give Bradshaw a shot at another big day.
Some lesser-owned backs with favorable matchups are both Fred Jackson ($6,300 / 3.6%) and C.J. Spiller ($7,800 / 1.2%), who both square off against Houston this week. The Texans appear to be a good defense, but running backs have had field days so far this season, as shown by Rashad Jennings' huge game in Week 3. Jackson is cheaper and offers better value, but both he and Spiller should be considered.
Lorenzo Taliaferro ($5,300 / 0.6%) also has to be considered in Week 4, even in a tough matchup against Carolina. Taliaferro's value is hinged upon him getting similar work as to what he had in Week 3 against Cleveland, but with no Dennis Pitta, Taliaferro could add even more in the passing game and get over 15 points this week, making him a huge value at his cheap salary and low ownership rate. Keep an eye on news for the Ravens heading into the weekend because if Taliaferro is the lead back then he has to be a top option for tournament lineups.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Whatever do we do with the Broncos on a bye week? The fading of Denver was a big trend, but that is obviously out of the question with everyone taking the week off. The good news is that Seattle is also off this week, so the stifling pass defense is not a concern for Week 4.
The most popular receivers this week is a relatively short list - only Antonio Brown (26.9%), Julio Jones (16.1%) and Baltimore's Steve Smith (18.8%) are owned by more than 15% of teams. Jordy Nelson's poor week last week in Detroit dropped him way down the list to only 12.4% ownership. Brandin Cooks is a trendy pick, appearing on 12.8% of rosters in a nice matchup against Dallas. Julian Edelman (13.5%) gets the love of both Tom Brady and owners looking for a ton of targets in his direction on Monday Night Football. The last wide receiver topping 10% ownership is Michael Crabtree, appearing on 10.8% of rosters as the 49ers host Philadelphia this week.
So what do we make of this? These guys are either seasoned veterans who can have huge, huge weeks or they are bargains under $7,000 this week. Steve Smith ($6,100) faces his old team and is a strong option, and he might be a strong loss leader this week. Brandin Cooks ($6,200) has a great matchup and represents a Jimmy Graham fade at tight end, assuming Drew Brees has a big game. Similarly, Marques Colston ($5,500 / 4.8%) offers solid value for Drew Brees fans.
Other lesser-owned players to consider are Anquan Boldin ($6,100), who is a great option to stack with Colin Kaepernick against the Eagles this week. Harry Douglas ($5,000) is also a strong play if Roddy White remains sidelined. Greg Jennings ($5,400 / 3.1%) might be the best pairing with Teddy Bridgewater if you choose to go really cheap at quarterback.
Vincent Jackson ($6,800 / 0.6%) is a very nice sleeper. Ike Taylor is out for Pittsburgh, and Mike Glennon is back at quarterback for Tampa Bay. Very, very few teams will dare to stack Jackson and Glennon for Week 4 - which opens the door for a huge payday if they get two touchdown connections in Pittsburgh.
TIGHT ENDS
No surprise here as Jimmy Graham is both expensive ($8,200) and highly owned (22.5%). Fortunately for those of you entering contests this weekend, Larry Donnell is not in play, which means you won't have an uphill battle at the position. Only Antonio Gates and Martellus Bennett are owned at high rates (over 10%) after Graham. Value picks to consider are Jason Witten ($5,900 / 1.2%), Owen Daniels ($5.1, 2.4%) and Delanie Walker ($5.7, 1.7%) in a great matchup against Indianapolis.
Last week this column highlighted Travis Kelce. His price has increased (from $4,900 to $5,200), and people are starting to take notice. His ownership also increased from 2.3% to 3.9%, but he still offers solid value on Monday against New England.
Example Lineup
It goes without saying that this is just an example lineup, and I reserve the right to tinker with it until five minutes before kickoff. I’m not thrilled with the exposure I’m inheriting with this roster but it does balance loss leaders with some upside contrarian plays.
- QB – Colin Kaepernick - ($8,100, 5.3%)
- RB – Donald Brown - ($6,300, 27.6%)
- RB – Lamar Miller - ($6,900, 15.4%)
- WR – Michael Crabtree - ($7,000, 10.8%)
- WR – Steve Smith Sr. - ($6,100, 18.5%)
- WR – Andre Johnson - ($6,700, 2.2%)
- TE – Jimmy Graham - ($8,200, 22.5%)
- K – Nick Novak - ($5,200, 4.0%)
- D/ST – San Diego Chargers - ($5,300, 24.3%)
