There is absolutely no question that the biggest area of growth right now in fantasy football is with the explosion of Daily Fantasy Contests. With several top sites out there already and more entering this space each day, Footballguys is expanding the coverage in this arena to give Footballguys Insiders exclusive coverage of the latest news and information of Daily Fantasy Football.
Over the course of this football season, we will talk about numerous aspects of Daily Fantasy Football. From articles on these sites, strategies to win daily contests, bankroll (money management) strategy, different league and game types, signup and reload bonuses, players to target each week and even contests that look to be undersubscribed ("overlays"), we will cover it all. Welcome to the one-stop shop for Daily coverage.
Please note that even though the NFL has weekly Thursday games and DFS sites have contests that start on Thursdays, in general we will be looking at the majority of the contests and DFS games that do not begin until Sunday. Our weekly coverage does include Thursday DFS information if you are looking to get a jump on the DFS action for the week with the first game on Thursday.
DFS LESSON OF THE WEEK - HOW TO WIN A MILLION BUCKs
Okay, I might be overselling this section a little bit this week, because I am sure that you all know that if I had that recipe, I would be serving up bags of cash for myself. I’m a realist here, but you understand what our goal is here. DraftKings is giving away $1,000,000 each week to whoever can come up with the best fantasy roster for the week. What I wanted to do was break down not just the winner’s roster, but the Top 10 finishers from Week 6 and see if we can figure out any trends or insights that could help you (or me) win the big prize.
The first thing we need is the contest results, which can be found here. Don’t worry about being a snoop here, as I am certain that these lucky folks do not mind us looking at their rosters. DraftKings is promoting a link to last week’s contest anyway, but I would imagine that all of the Top 10 finishers are more than happy winning $10,000 or more, and Jquave76 would not care if I gave away a lot more information about himself considering he is now $1 Million richer after Monday.
ROSTER TRENDS
Before I dive too deeply into each team, let's take a quick look at the winning roster:
Figure 1 - The $1 Million Roster for Week 6
For the 10 teams that all scored over 219 points in Week 6, several trends can be gleaned by looking at how each team owner built their roster. Eight of the 10 owners used four wide receivers, opting for a fourth wideout as their flex position option. The other two owners utilized a third running back in that spot. None of them used more than a single tight end, and that makes sense. Looking at the 10 individual rosters, 12 different wide receivers occupied 38 spots – and all but three of them put up 100-yard games to earn a very important 3-point bonus. All of the receivers for the Top 7 teams broke the 100-yard barrier, and Teams 8 and 10 had the benefit of Torrey Smith scoring two touchdowns. The 10 receivers used by the Top 8 teams all “tripled up” on their value (scoring at least three times their salary cap number in thousands) such as 4x performance by Steve Smith Sr. (24 fantasy points for $4,900, or 4.89 times his cost in thousands). That is a critical component for success, as every lineup in the Top 8 had at least two receivers hitting this mark. Only two of the Top 8 lineups that had Antonio Brown had a player at under 3x value, and Brown was very close (2.7x with 21.6 points for $7,900).
Another key observation is the thought process of creating a “stacked” lineup, or having a quarterback for one of your receivers to obtain two big performances. The school of thought here is that if a wide receiver has a big day, so will his quarterback. Joe Flacco was the QB stud of choice in this regard, appearing on five of the Top 10 lineups. Every team that used Flacco either had Steve Smith Sr. or Torrey Smith, and that combination paid off well for those owners.
Quarterback was another key spot for these ten teams. Aside from the five Flacco lineups, only three other quarterbacks were used in the Top 10. One team used Cam Newton, while another used Kirk Cousins. The three remaining teams went with Tom Brady. All four quarterbacks were of reasonable cost ($6,000 - $6,700), and all but Newton had a 300-yard game with multiple touchdowns. Brady and Flacco performed at better than five times value, while Newton had a big day despite not getting 300 yards passing because he rushed for over 100 yards himself. Only the Flacco and Cousins teams used a QB / WR stack (Cousins was paired with DeSean Jackson) – no Panthers or Patriots wide receiver made the roster for any of the Top 10. Two teams did use tight end Rob Gronkowski, but oddly enough neither Gronkowski team used Brady.
Turning our attention to the running back position, 11 different names were across the ten lineups, with some high common utilization across all 10 teams. Matt Forte’s big day (10 catches, two touchdowns) helped seven of the 10 teams, while Brandon Oliver and Giovani Bernard helped 50% of the lineups. Every running back was worth 3x their value or better (Lamar Miller was close – 17.3 points for $5,800, but that’s close enough) except for Justin Forsett, who pulled the second place team back a little. Six of the 11 running backs had 100-yard days, and ironically Forte did not rush for 100 but had big numbers across the board to get him 37.7 points, tops for any tailback.
So what about tight ends? Five different names appeared (Julius Thomas three times, Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook and Gronkowski twice, one team with Jordan Reed) but as I stated earlier, no team used a tight end as a flex. That seems to make sense, as you really need 20+ points from your flex spot, and that requires a 100-yard game at RB or WR, not tight end. Only Cameron had a 100-yard game at tight end for this group, but all five tight ends were close to triple value or better (Cameron had 6x, Reed 5x).
Lastly, let’s talk about defenses. This was the most scattered position, as eight different defenses appeared for these ten teams. Only Tennessee and Detroit were used more than once. The Top 5 teams all had a big benefit to the defenses they chose, as Denver, Tennessee, San Francisco and Detroit had 13 or more fantasy points. Both the Broncos and 49ers scored on defense, while Tennessee racked up sacks and turnovers against Jacksonville and the Lions held Minnesota to just three points. The next five teams had scattered results, which certainly did not help the teams that received just one point from San Diego and Carolina. The 9th-place team likely made the Top 10 thanks to the Eagles blanking the Giants and scoring 20 fantasy points.
Great stuff so far Jeff – but what about building a team that can win this week? I’m glad you asked. Here’s the best advice I can give to you based on these rosters:
- Quarterback – don’t be cheap, but don’t overspend. You need to get 3x value or better, so a QB in the $6,000-7,000 range is about right. Look for a quarterback that could have a receiver have a big day in a favorable matchup, because you will need a 300-yard, multi-touchdown game to be a big winner.
- Wide receiver – stack one with your quarterback, for starters. Consider the WR1 or WR2 on that team, but keep in mind that a 3x performance is a minimum, and you probably will need 4x to be a Top 10 team. That usually means skipping the $7,500 and up range, as only three of the 12 WRs from the Top 10 in Week 6 cost over that mark – and none broke the 4x barrier. Look for WRs in the bargain bin, but don’t litter your roster with them. Sure you might hit it big, but the odds are that you will only find one of these at most (such as Andre Holmes). Mohamed Sanu everyone was targeting, so he was a major help to these teams. That’s the kind of find you must hit.
- Running back – Similar story to wide receiver, although bigger days are more attainable even for big dollar guys like Forte, DeMarco Murray and Giovani Bernard. Most teams used RBs in the $5,000 - $6,000 range, but a few bargains never hurt like Ronnie Hillman ($3,000) and Joique Bell ($3,700). The best recipe seems to be one stud and one bargain, and maybe a third in between for a flex.
- Tight end – Matchups and bargains are the story here. The best teams used Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron and Jared Cook. Only Cameron broke the 4x barrier, thanks to a 100-yard game with a touchdown – and that value was helped because Cameron was only $3,700. Most likely, your team will be just fine with a tight end in the $3,000 - $4,000 range, and hope for a 3x-4x performance.
- Defense – Hope for a touchdown or a shutout, but most of all, go after defenses facing bad teams (Jacksonville) or inexperienced quarterbacks (Minnesota, St. Louis). Overspending rarely helps – the right matchups count the most.
- Team combinations – Several of the Top 10 teams used up to three players (including defenses) from the same team. I am not counting from the same game, mind you – so Branden Oliver and Andre Holmes on the same roster still makes sense. What I was looking for was any team that used more than two players on the same team in their lineup. I found quite a few, and not just a QB/WR stack. One team used Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Ronnie Hillman from the Broncos – and was handsomely rewarded for that extra risk to the tune of 70.1 fantasy points for just $17,700, or almost a 4x for those three players. What is noteworthy is that this added risk could have cost the second place finisher quite a big payday (not that $100,000 is anything to sneeze at, of course). Using Justin Forsett with the Flacco / Steve Smith stack should have given him some pause, as there can only be so many touchdowns (usually) in a given game. Just looking at the short list of high-performing RBs from the Top 10, swapping in LeSean McCoy, Joique Bell, Ben Tate or Ronnie Hillman for Forsett would have vaulted the second place team into first place – a $900,000 difference.
- Uniqueness – Very often, Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) contest players talk about getting a lineup that is unique. I looked at all ten teams, and there is some truth to this. Every quarterback in the Top 10 was owned in less than 3.3% of the league. Adding a rare quarterback to a stacked receiver not only gives a team a leg up but also a unique path to the top. Running back uniqueness did not matter much (five teams had running backs owned by 15% of teams or greater), and 7 of 12 wide receivers had ownerships over 10% in the contest. Tight ends were similar, with 2 of 5 tight ends in the Top 10 owned by more than 10% of the league. The correct choices at RB, WR and TE matter far more than being unique. If you want one position to be singular on your team, however, it is quarterback.
| Position | Player | Salary | % Usage in Contest | Value (Points/$10K) | Points | Top 10 Usage | Yardage bonus? | Notes |
| QB | Joe Flacco | $6700 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 35.24 | 0.5 | Yes | |
| QB | Kirk Cousins | $6700 | 3 | 3.3 | 22.16 | 0.1 | Yes | |
| QB | Tom Brady | $6000 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 33.74 | 0.3 | Yes | |
| QB | Cam Newton | $6100 | 0.7 | 6.2 | 38.06 | 0.1 | Yes | 100+ yards rushing |
| RB | Lamar Miller | $5800 | 2.3 | 3 | 17.3 | 0.1 | No | |
| RB | Branden Oliver | $5500 | 30.5 | 4.6 | 25.4 | 0.5 | Yes | |
| RB | Matt Forte | $8800 | 19.9 | 4.3 | 37.7 | 0.7 | No | 2 TDs |
| RB | Justin Forsett | $6100 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 14.1 | 0.1 | Yes | |
| RB | Ronnie Hillman | $3000 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 17.6 | 0.2 | Yes | |
| RB | Giovani Bernard | $7700 | 11 | 3.7 | 28.7 | 0.5 | Yes | |
| RB | Joique Bell | $3700 | 25.8 | 4.8 | 17.7 | 0.3 | No | |
| RB | Andre Ellington | $5100 | 15.6 | 3 | 15.3 | 0.1 | No | |
| RB | LeSean McCoy | $6000 | 19.5 | 3.4 | 20.4 | 0.1 | Yes | |
| RB | Ben Tate | $5500 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 19.8 | 0.1 | No | |
| RB | DeMarco Murray | $7600 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 29.6 | 0.1 | Yes | |
| WR | Andre Holmes | $3000 | 2.6 | 10.4 | 31.1 | 0.5 | Yes | |
| WR | Jordy Nelson | $7700 | 12 | 3.7 | 28.7 | 0.2 | Yes | |
| WR | Steve Smith Sr. | $6200 | 8.7 | 4 | 25 | 0.3 | Yes | |
| WR | Mohamed Sanu | $5300 | 16.4 | 5.8 | 31 | 0.7 | Yes | |
| WR | DeSean Jackson | $4900 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 24 | 0.5 | Yes | |
| WR | Demaryius Thomas | $8000 | 17 | 3.9 | 31.4 | 0.2 | Yes | |
| WR | Antonio Brown | $7900 | 14.6 | 2.7 | 21.6 | 0.2 | Yes | |
| WR | Brandon Marshall | $6300 | 13.9 | 3.2 | 20.3 | 0.1 | Yes | |
| WR | Alshon Jeffery | $6500 | 15.7 | 3.3 | 21.6 | 0.1 | Yes | |
| WR | Torrey Smith | $4100 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 21.1 | 0.2 | No | 2 TDs |
| WR | Jarius Wright | $3200 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 7.8 | 0.1 | No | |
| WR | Rueben Randle | $6700 | 11 | 1.6 | 10.8 | 0.1 | No | |
| TE | Julius Thomas | $6700 | 14.9 | 3.1 | 21.1 | 0.3 | No | |
| TE | Jordan Cameron | $3600 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 22.2 | 0.2 | Yes | |
| TE | Jared Cook | $3700 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 11.4 | 0.1 | No | |
| TE | Rob Gronkowski | $5800 | 14.7 | 2.8 | 16.4 | 0.2 | No | |
| TE | Jordan Reed | $3200 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 17.2 | 0.2 | No | |
| DEF | Broncos | $3100 | 17.6 | 4.8 | 15 | 0.1 | Def TD | |
| DEF | Titans | $2900 | 12.9 | 4.5 | 13 | 0.2 | ||
| DEF | 49ers | $3200 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 14 | 0.1 | Def TD | |
| DEF | Lions | $3300 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 21 | 0.2 | 3pts against | |
| DEF | Panthers | $2600 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.1 | ||
| DEF | Vikings | $2500 | 5.7 | 2 | 5 | 0.1 | ||
| DEF | Eagles | $3200 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 20 | 0.1 | shutout | |
| DEF | Chargers | $3400 | 13.2 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.1 | ||
INDUSTRY NEWS
Footballguys' Daily Content - 100% Free for NFL Week 7
The dream has come true - the best fantasy football website is now THE PLACE to get your Daily Fantasy Sports information. Just to show everyone how awesome the coverage is, Footballguys' has broken down that subscription barrier that prevents subscribers from viewing all of the content available to only Footballguys' Insider Pro members. Check it out and spread the word.
Daily Fantasy Sports Coverage by Footballguys.com - Week 7
Another Major Live Event - Fantasy Aces
Another major event in the DFS space is highlighted here with the FAFC (Fantasy Aces Football Championship) Live Event, which will take place on November 23rd. This is a remarkable event with a big prize pool, and all of it is available at the $109 entry fee. All 13 Fantasy Aces members who qualify will win the trip and a cash prize of at least $1,500, with a shot at the top cash prize of $40,000. Here are the details:
- 13 Fantasy Aces members will be flown out to Southern California for an all expense 2-night stay and compete in the $100,000 Aces Daily Fantasy Football Championship on November 23rd.
- 2 Night Stay at the beautiful Balboa Bay Resort in Newport Beach, CA (November 22nd - 23rd)
- Saturday Night Pre-Game Kickoff Yacht Cocktail Party on the Mojo (100ft Yacht)
- The Main Event - $100,000 Championship Party at American Junkie in Newport Beach, CA
- Include a plus 1 (pay for the cost of the flight and we will reimburse the costs via site credit)
Read all of the details and join here:
ON THE DAILY AND INTERACTIVE VALUE CHARTS
Footballguys' own Maurile Tremblay does not just do projections for Footballguys - oh no, far from it. One of the best innovations that he has provided since last year is his "On the Daily" column, where he takes his projections, David Dodds' projections, and Sigmund Bloom's projections and provides recommended optimal lineups for five major DFS sites (FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay, FantasyAces, FantasyFeud) based on those projections. How cool is that?
But what if you want to play at other sites or build your own lineup (or multiple lineups)? Once again, Maurile has you covered. He has provided interactive value chart pages where you can click on each player, sort by position, salary and value (points per $10K) to craft your own custom team. All of the links for these are provided below in our Daily Content on Footballguys table plus they appear weekly on Footballguys' weekly home page.
But wait - there's more! Maurile went even further by adding the ability to partially fill out a lineup and have the tool fill in the rest of your roster. From Maurile himself:
How cool is that?
DAILY CONTENT AROUND FOOTBALLGUYS.COM
NFL WEEK 7
Two weeks down for the NFL season, and we have had some big, big contests in DFS so far - and the fun continues. Let's dig into some of the big contests out there. If there are any that I miss, please drop me an email (pasquino@footballguys.com) and I will update this article.
FANDUEL - WEEK 7 BIG CONTESTS
All of these contests can be found in the lobby at FanDuel.
FanDuel Presents the Playboy Championship
This year our friends at FanDuel are offering you the chance to go on the trip of a lifetime to the world famous Playboy Mansion in Los Angeles! You and 75 finalists will compete for $1,000,000 in prizes, including a $150,000 first place prize as you sit poolside with Hef at this year’s hottest fantasy football event.
Not only that, they’ll be running contests for 25 additional trip-only packages to maximize your chances of getting in on this exclusive party. That’s 100 chances to win!
Qualifiers start at only $5 to enter, seats to this epic event will be going fast, so enter one of the qualifiers and punch your ticket now!
Click to enter PFC $5 Qualifier
Click to enter PFC $50 Qualifier
Click to enter PFC $535 Qualifier
DRAFTKINGS - WEEK 7 BIG CONTESTS
Are you interested in winning $1 Million Dollars in a single week? DraftKings hopes that you are.
NFL $2.2M Millionaire Maker - $1,000,000 to First Place. Welcome to the second edition of the $2,200,000 guaranteed Millionaire Maker, where you can turn $27 into $1 Million! Both Week 5's and Week 6's Millionaire Maker paid out $1 Million to first place, and DraftKings is doing it again this week. First place will become an instant millionaire, and over 15,000 spots are paid out in total. Multiple lineups per player are permitted. Will you be this season's first millionaire? Enter now!
World's Biggest $50 50/50 - This 1,112-player contest boasts a $50,040 prize pool and pays out the top 556 finishing positions. All winners earn $90. Good luck!
World's Biggest $20 50/50 - This 5,556-player contest boasts a $100,008 prize pool and pays out the top 2,778 finishing positions. All winners earn $36. Good luck!
World's Biggest $10 50/50 - This 11,112-player contest boasts a $100,008 prize pool and pays out the top 5,556 finishing positions. All winners earn $18. Good luck!
Note from Jeff Pasquino: As of Thursday afternoon, all of these contests were less than 50% full. Keep in mind that this is a guaranteed prize, so there is definitely an opportunity here for a large overlay situation. Watch these closely, all the way to Sunday morning.
NFL Sunday 300 Grand. $300,000 in total prizes. $200 to enter. Up to 1,667 entries with the top 350 getting a payout. $50,000 to first.
Future Big Contests:
"Four months, SIX millionaires": Four Five Six contests where the top winner will win at least $1 Million. Weeks 5, 6, 7, 11, 15 and 16 of the NFL season. Direct entry is $27, but you can earn your way in for as little as a quarter - yes, $0.25. (Odds are certainly much steeper at $0.25 vs. $27, but hard to get more action for a quarter!).
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
