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Welcome to the 2016 version of The Daily Grind, a look at Daily Fantasy Football from several vantage points. Together we will look at many different topics this season – from managing expectations and bankroll to what Footballguys has in store for 2016 and how to best use what this site has to offer to maximize both your enjoyment and your bankroll by Super Bowl LI. So let’s jump right in with some thoughts on both expectations for playing this year and also a first take at a guided tour for Footballguys’ DFS coverage this season:
The Domino Effect
DFS players are typically creatures of habit. They get into a routine of how they do their research and set their lineups, but I am quite sure that most every player has a different routine – to an extent. Some players set lineups the night before contests, while some others wait until right before kickoff. Either way, there are some similarities in all of the research methods. The starting points all begin the same place – Las Vegas.
Smart players know to follow successful players (and research), and no one does their homework better than the sportsbooks. When Las Vegas sets a line, there is a lot of information, data and number crunching behind those points spreads and Over/Under game totals. After all, those big buildings on the Las Vegas Strip did not pay for themselves. So DFS players know to start with the sportsbooks as one of the very first pieces of homework.
A few weeks back I gave you what I think was one of my better analogies with DFS Tetris. The similarities between building a DFS roster and solving the puzzle video game are strong, and I think understanding one allows you to better comprehend the other. This week I will be giving you another analogy on doing the DFS research you need each week. The analogy is the Domino Effect, which is easily displayed by watching a video of a big setup of dominoes is all orchestrated by a single push of the first domino.
Here is the Domino Effect when it comes to DFS research that all DFS players have to do, for not just the NFL but all daily sports contests:
Domino #1 – The Las Vegas Sportsbooks – I mentioned this earlier, that we all need to look at the wise guys and the lines set by Las Vegas sportsbooks. Checking the point spreads and totals for all of the slate of games gives every DFS player a starting point for the games in the given contest.
Domino #2 – Believing in the lines (and totals) set by Vegas – This is where the dominoes can take a left or right turn. Do you believe in the numbers set by Vegas? Are the sportsbooks trying to encourage wagering on one particular side or another, and the line is off? Do you see something in the lines that can tip you towards a given game script that might be different? This is where you can adjust a game (or several) on your own and proceed to the next step (or domino). The example of going onto your own path is much like a branch of dominoes that does something cool off of the main run of the dominoes. Good domino setups have several things going on at once, and choosing what to watch and follow makes it entertaining to see. Setting your own totals and point spreads is very similar.
Domino #3 – Calculating each team’s expected points for the week – Going back to the totals and lines set by the sportsbooks and any adjustments you made, you can calculate the expected points for each team on the slate. For the NFL, John Lee does it for you in our weekly Footballguys’ DFS Vegas Value Chart. For example, Week 15 has everyone looking at Atlanta hard for a ton of points. This can also be flipped on its head to see who is expected to score the least, and steer you towards a defensive selection.
Domino #4 – Figuring out who is going to be involved in getting those points – This is the next level down (along with Domino #5). Once you have games to target, such as the Atlanta game this week, where do you think the 30+ points are going to come from? Will it be Matt Ryan throwing to Julio Jones? What about Taylor Gabriel? Will the running backs get involved, and which ones? Who else might be involved?
This is where the game script analysis of each contest really comes into play. In a game with a high projected point total, will it be close and a shootout, or will one side run it up on the opposition? What about lower total games that might turn into a shootout because the point spread is low and it could go back and forth? Some general rules can be applied such as taking good run offenses (and possibly a defense) for a team projected to win by a wide margin, but ultimately it comes down to figuring out where the points are going to come from – air or ground.
Domino #5 – Diving into individual matchups for those games – Now that you have projected scores and general game scripts for each from Domino #4, it is time to decide who is going to be visiting the end zone this week. If the Giants are expected to score 25 points and you think that their running game is a mess, the first thought would be to use Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, Jr. Well, that might be a good thought, but what if a great cornerback is going to be covering Beckham all day long? Then what? Well, this is where checking on matchups for each wide receiver comes into play. Our DFS article Exposed (Week 14 available now, Week 15 coming) can help, as can other bits and pieces in the rest of our DFS coverage, along with tidbits from ProFootballFocus and other sources. This might lead you away from a Beckham choice and onto a Sterling Shepard, to complete the Giants example.
Domino #6 – Considering ownership levels of those players targeted – This is yet another level to go to when it comes to DFS. Have you considered the probable ownership for the players you are targeting? Are they “chalk” for the week and thus will be on a lot of rosters, or are they contrarian picks that will likely be lower owned? We have several ownership articles at Footballguys (just look at our Week 15 DFS page and you can see we have “Projecting Ownership” by Chad Parsons along with “The Chalk” by Chris Feery, who also gives “The Contrarian” for lower owned options for the week), so the ownership data is out there to use. In really big tournaments you will need to be contrarian in some way to finish atop the standings, so having a healthy respect for ownership and knowing how likely your lineup will be unique for a given contest is very valuable information to have.
Domino #7 – Building lineups and entering contests – Now that you have done all of your homework, you are ready to start looking at the players to put into those rosters. Using Footballguys’ projections or your own, you can quickly build lineups with a tool like the Interactive Value Calculators and combine the pieces of the puzzle into cash rosters, GPP lineups or multiplier rosters that are somewhere in between the two.
DFS can seem quite complicated and daunting, and one of the goals of Footballguys is to simplify the process and help everyone to succeed. I hope that this example of breaking down the steps of how to do your own research for players to use each week helps all DFS players, new and experienced, to methodically work through the process of getting to a list of usable players for each week’s DFS contests. It is just a matter of seeing the dominoes all stacked neatly in place, waiting for the first one to be made ready (by the sportsbooks). Then we just follow them along, one by one, until we get to our winning lineups at the end of the display – until next week when we start the magic all over again.
Good luck in all your contests this week!
A GUIDED TOUR TO FOOTBALLGUYS’ DFS 2016 COVERAGE (FINAL EDITION)
Over the past three weeks I have provided you a guided tour to all the DFS coverage Footballguys is providing this season. Here at Footballguys, we have dedicated a good amount of the staff and resources to give you the best DFS content possible, and the intent of this tour was to highlight as much of the content and how to use it as possible. As a courtesy to you the reader each week, I will leave this placeholder so you can find the tour in the future and can find the articles and tools you use the most. Just remember to check the week number in the link, as it will take you to Week 3 content.
Here is the final version of the tour:
Good luck to you in all of your contests!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.