Welcome to the 2016 version of The Daily Grind, a look at Daily Fantasy Football from several vantage points. Together we will look at many different topics this season – from managing expectations and bankroll to what Footballguys has in store for 2016 and how to best use what this site has to offer to maximize both your enjoyment and your bankroll by Super Bowl LI. So let’s jump right in with some thoughts on both expectations for playing this year and also a first take at a guided tour for Footballguys’ DFS coverage this season:
FINAL WEEK fOR THE BIGGEST GPPS IN THE INDUSTRY
NFL Week 13 marks the final week to qualify for the two biggest NFL tournaments in the daily sports industry – FanDuel’s World Fantasy Football Championship (the WFFC) and DraftKings’ Fantasy Football World Championship (the DFFC). Both of these contests have huge prizes, but for that very reason it is not easy to get into these contests. While I am all about encouraging players to try and get these big paydays, I do so with a huge amount of caution. Because it is so hard to get in, every entry fee used to try and get into these contests should be viewed as a total loss to your bankroll. In other words, consider trying to get into these contests as a “I will never see this money again” event. This is why bankroll management is so important (so that you can have money to play again, and also to have some money to “blow” on these events since 98-99% of the time you will not qualify). I wish everyone the best of luck if they try and get in for these major (and very rewarding) events, just use caution with how much you risk on it this week.
BUILDING TOURNAMENT TEAMS
If you are building some tournament teams and looking for GPP options, be sure to read over (once again) the Cracking DraftKings and Cracking FanDuel e-books that Footballguys produced. There are great nuggets of information on how to build a successful tournament lineup, and how to stack the right players together. As I mentioned a few weeks ago with my DFS Tetris approach, creating strong tournament lineups is a lot like solving a puzzle. Figure out which pieces (or, in the case of stacks, groups of pieces) that you like and start putting all of the parts together.
Some other thoughts on GPP lineups for what could be a big tournament week – be cautious in reading too much into Las Vegas or even the lineup building tools such as our Interactive Value Calculators. When it comes to Vegas, many DFS players are going to be targeting the highest Over/Under or total games each week, but value can be had by figuring out what other games could have high performances that are not necessarily the most popular choices for the week. Hitting on those stacks will greatly separate you from the pack, both from an ownership perspective and also if the highly owned stacks do not produce as expected. Just remember to be contrarian within reason, not crazy.
As far as the Interactive Value Calculators, these are fantastic tools, but they are not 100% ideal for tournaments. The IVC is designed to help you to construct more of a cash game lineup, and it does not highlight tournament players with big upside. Rather it uses baseline projections, which are an average value for each player. When it comes to tournaments, use the outstanding Footballguys’ DFS articles that discuss tournament stacks and GPP plays such as our FanDuel Starting Stacks and DraftKings Starting Stacks and also the IVC’s Top 20 stacks tool (in the upper right corner) to find out where to start building your tournament rosters. Put in a stack or two and then fill in the pieces around that.
Lastly, when you have some GPP lineups constructed, and if you are gunning for those big tournament tickets, consider putting that same lineup in smaller or better ROI tournaments as well (such as the $5 Sling TV Rush on FanDuel or DraftKings’ $4 Cover Four. That way, you can get some reward if you have a good GPP lineup but not one that finishes with the very top prize of an entry into the big one.
Good luck!
WEEK 13 – A WEEK OF TIGHT PRICING
Every week in the NFL when it comes to DFS is different. Week 13 is no exception, as many people (including the “experts”) are having a difficult time to make all the pieces fit. This is clearly a week that can be described as “tight pricing”, where it is hard to find that value player to put in a lineup and make all the other players that most people want to use fit on the roster. Whether that is done intentionally by the sites in how they set the prices each week or not, the result is the same – some weeks are harder to build cash game lineups, and Week 13 feels like one of those weeks.
So what do we do?
Rather than focus on just Week 13, I wanted to just talk about pricing in general. Some weeks are tight, and some are loose – but what do those terms really mean? A “tight” week is one in which it feels like no matter how hard you try to build a lineup, 1-2 of the players you land on for your squad feels like a bigger gamble than you would normally like to use in a cash game. The players you really want (or need, since most everyone will want certain studs) eat up too much of the salary cap to afford reasonable cash game players to round out the lineup. A “loose” week would be one where there is almost too much value on the table, and everyone under the sun fits as a result. Think back to Week 1when all of the prices were released early and a ton of value was available. Another situation that often happens to create “loose pricing” is two backups wind up starting in a given week. Everyone will be using these two guys, so these “free squares” are must starts, and then you have so much salary cap space left you can afford practically anyone you want.
Here’s the interesting part of both scenarios – BOTH make for dangerous cash game weeks. Why is that? I’m glad you asked. With loose pricing, everyone will be using the same two players as value plays and paying up for a lot of the same studs. With tight pricing, everyone will be trying to squeeze in the same top studs and probably landing on similar value plays to make it work. In both cases, there will be lots of lineup overlap (same players on many lineups), which means less diversity, and those secondary choices will be deciding who wins cash games. That’s a risky proposition.
Devin Knotts had a strong take on this on our Power Grid show (and in fact, many of these topics were covered a lot of our closing statements this week) - and Devin said that it might be better to play more head-to-head, smaller contests this week as you are more likely to find direct matchups that are missing these chalk players and get a victory than trying to best a big field of DFS lineups in a bigger 50/50 or double-up contest with so much player overlap. Keep all of this in mind as you evaluate not just this week’s slate, but every slate you play in all DFS sports. Game selection and bankroll management are critical parts of DFS success – and I wish you all the luck this week in all the contests you play.
A GUIDED TOUR TO FOOTBALLGUYS’ DFS 2016 COVERAGE (FINAL EDITION)
Over the past three weeks I have provided you a guided tour to all the DFS coverage Footballguys is providing this season. Here at Footballguys, we have dedicated a good amount of the staff and resources to give you the best DFS content possible, and the intent of this tour was to highlight as much of the content and how to use it as possible. As a courtesy to you the reader each week, I will leave this placeholder so you can find the tour in the future and can find the articles and tools you use the most. Just remember to check the week number in the link, as it will take you to Week 3 content.
Here is the final version of the tour:
Good luck to you in all of your contests!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.