Welcome back to The Daily Grind, the place where I will be discussing all the happenings in Daily Fantasy Sports on a weekly basis. The Daily Grind will be my voice to help you through the constantly changing DFS landscape as I highlight important news, free articles, resources, potential overlay situations, great contests to play and more every week. The emphasis here will be first to cover the four sites that we partnered with this year (FanDuel, DraftKings, FantasyAces and FantasyScore), but I will still discuss major news and contests beyond those sites when applicable.
DFS LESSON OF THE WEEK - EXPOSURE
Last week was a little rough for me, and a lot of folks, who had Charcandrick West in their lineups for Week 11. That got me to thinking about exposure as a topic to discuss for this week. In case you are unfamiliar with the term, or how it is applied to DFS, exposure reflects how much you use a particular player in your lineups for a given slate of games. It’s easier to explain in a few examples. Let’s say you had 10 different lineups in Week 11, and all 10 had Mr. West in them. That would mean you were 100% exposed to West for that slate – and your likelihood of winning (or losing) would be highly correlated with how West did. If he had a fantastic day, odds would be good that you had a great week – but if he got hurt or played poorly, your teams would be behind the curve in trying to compete and you could be looking at a total loss for the week.
Exposure can be quantified a few different ways. One way is by the amount of lineups in which you use a given player. Going back to the earlier example, let’s say you had 10 lineups again but now only six had West. That would lower your exposure to 60% for West, right? Well, my answer would actually be “it depends”, since I don’t know how much you used each lineup. If you used Lineup 1 with West in it in a $100 contest but the other nine lineups were spread across $10-15 worth of contests, I would say you were probably in the 75-80% exposure range for the week. The better way to define your true exposure to a given player, stack, or group of players is based on the amount of entry fees tied to those players. Lineups are a good start for measuring exposure, but the entry fee distribution is a better defining method for true exposure.
So this all leads to the big question – how much exposure is too much, or too little? This comes down to your own risk tolerance for a given player or slate. Most DFS players would tend to say that you should not have 100% exposure to one player for a week, and I tend to fall in that category myself. Putting all of your eggs in one basket is a riskier strategy, and it can pay off big if you win or put a big dent in your bankroll if something goes wrong. If you are madly in love with a given player and feel like only an injury can keep you from having a big day, a larger exposure to that player may make sense for you. Quantifying your exposure to a player for a given slate can alert you to how much your weekly fate depends on his success, and can help you to check yourself in case you do not want to ever be more than 50% or 75% or whatever metric you want to have for your lineups for the week.
THE DFS LEGAL REPORT
It is a short week in the U.S. thanks to Thanksgiving, so that means that the legal aspects of DFS were relatively quete due to the holiday - but not exactly 100% silent. New York did start their hearing on Daily Fantasy Sports before New York Supreme Court Judge Manuel Mendez on Wednesday, and it spanned two hours with attorneys representing both DraftKings and FanDuel speaking before the judge in addition to the New York Attorney General. Judge Mendez denied the NYAG's request for an immediate ruling and an injunction that would have effectively ended FanDuel and DraftKings from operating in New York. Judge Mendez stated that his decision is likely to come very soon, but it would not surprise me if there is an appeal from whichever side loses this legal battle.
So, enjoy Thanksgiving weekend and stay tuned, as news regarding DFS and the ripple effect towards DFS in other states is likely coming soon.
DRAFTKINGS CHANGES POLICIES
Earlier this week, DraftKings sent out a statement to its registered users that they were changing their policies regarding the amount of entries each player was allowed at lower level stakes. Here is the statement:
We wanted to make you aware of some changes to our contest entry limits going forward at DraftKings.
1. Non-guaranteed Contest Entry Limits
These limits apply to single-entry non-guaranteed contests (includes all H2H and league contests). They do NOT apply to our guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests.
For the past 2+ years, our limits have been a max of 40 single-entry non-guaranteed contests per game set at $1 and $2 stakes.
Beginning with contests posted on Monday, November 23, our new limits will be 50 single-entry non-guaranteed contests per game set at $1, $2, $5, and $10 stakes. For example, you can have 50 entries of H2Hs at each of those stakes - i.e. 200 entries total - but any further single-entry non-guaranteed contest entries would need to be at stakes greater than $10.
2. Multi-entry Limits in Guaranteed Contests
We have thoroughly re-evaluated our multi-entry limits in guaranteed contests at all stakes and have implemented changes that will result in lower multi-entry limits in most contests types, especially at lower stakes, with a maximum of 3% of the field across the board. These limits apply to all contests posted on or after Monday, November 23.
Please note contests that were posted before today may still reflect the previous entry limits. If you have any questions please contact email@example.com.
The DraftKings Team
This is a good step towards protecting the smaller and middle-sized bankroll players. Sharks and Pros will now be strongly encouraged to play above the $10 line if they want to get more money in play, so fewer games will be scooped up by big bankroll players. This seems like DraftKings is both listening to their users and also taking some action towards complying suggestions made by the Massachusetts Attorney General to protect the newer and smaller stakes players.
FOOTBALLGUYS AND DFS COVERAGE FOR 2015
You know the deal by now - Footballguys has a ton of DFS coverage this year. Whether it is our two e-books that cover FanDuel (“Cracking FanDuel”) and DraftKings (“Cracking DraftKings”), or the 50+ articles a week we produce to cover all four major sites each week – we have it all covered. All this articles are linked in our Daily Crusher App that continues to be one of he best ways that DFS players can create lineups for cash games and tournaments and also get deep analysis on their rosters, likelihood of winning and exposure to various players. Once you start using this, it will be hard to imagine how you ever lived without it. I'm still learning all the different ways to use this great tool both by experimenting with it and with the help of our Daily Crusher Manual and I can already see its immense value to me as both a cash game and GPP player.
There's a ton more coverage we have this season for DFS, too much to outline in The Daily Grind, but we have a large section dedicated to each of our sponsor sites listed below.
We even added new video content for 2015. In a partnership with Rotogrinders, you can now see both John Lee and Austin Lee with Dan Back on The Footballguys Rotogrinders Hour. It is a great show with lots of insight. Check it out!
Of course, if you are a bigger fan of The Audible, we have both FanDuel and DraftKings shows for DFS coverage for each site as well. Be sure to subscribe to these weekly podcasts to get your weekends rolling for the NFL DFS slate.
FOOTBALLGUYS DFS CONTEST - FINAL WEEK
If you won a ticket to the Footballguys Football Championship presented by FanDuel, please check your account on FanDuel for a ticket or a dummy lineup entry waiting for you to adjust for this week. This is the week you have been waiting for - the chance to turn those tickets into a big cash prize. Set those lineups and good luck!
BIG CONTESTS FOR WEEK 12
Fanduel continues the fun in Week 11 with some of the largest volume of contests around. Start off with this week's $2 Million Contest where someone will win a half-million bucks for just a $25 entry all the way down to the NFL Sunday Rush, wherr a $5 entry to this contest can win you $100,000 for first place. What a value that one is. But of course there is more, and as we mentioned earlier in The Daily Grind, FanDuel partnered with Footballguys to create an exclusive Footballguys-FanDuel Championship with over $40,000 in free prizes, and this is the week of the final where you can win up to a $5,000 prize with those tickets you earned, so get those lineups set! And of course this is also the week of the Playboy College Football Championship, where 70 lucky winners head to the PCFC event at the Playboy Mansion on November 21st. Let's also not forget about the biggest one of them all, the $12M Fantasy Football World Championship that was announced early this season. Find a qualifier you like and take a shot and winning millions of dollars. The hard part is not deciding if to play, but which contests to target and try and take down.
DraftKings is once again offering their usual slate of great GPP contests. Such is the case this week with the $5M Millionaire Maker for Sunday. First place walks away with $1M dollars, not a bad payday at all. DraftKings still has the biggest contest around with their $15 Million contest announcement from a few weeks back, and qualifiers are still in play for as low as $3 an entry. Hmmm, $3 for a shot at $5 Million. I’m in, and I think everyone should take a shot at this big prize.
As far as the rest of the contests for this week, there are plenty of tournaments at DraftKings to sink your teeth into, even after the Millionaire Maker. At a price point of just $3, the $1M Play-Action tournament is certainly appealing, and this week they kept the $9 tournament at big money levels as the NFL Slant contest offers $375K in prizes and you can win as much as $25,000. There' are also several giant 50/50 contests in the lobby as well, including a $25 entry with 18,000 winners about to get $50 Tuesday morning. Lots of contests and lots of money to be had in Week 5, so get those lineups ready.
You have to check out what FantasyAces is offering this season. Not only are they going bigger and better for the NFL, but they are also going for a Live Final for College Football!
First, FantasyAces announced the $500,000 NFL Live Final for 2015, which will be in Newport Beach, CA on December 13th. The live final will have 40 entrants competing for a $100,000 grand prize. Qualifiers will run all season long up until the live event, including satellites to get into qualifiers at a discount.
FantasyAces also has an interesting format called SalaryPro, where you get bonus points for staying furhter and further under the salary cap. More and more are trying out this unique format, so be sure to check out the lobby over at FantasyAces for contests that use this rule.
FantasyScore is offering up a GPP with a twist this year. If you can finish in the Top 3 in their Fantasy Football Championship Satellite, you can grab an elusive golden ticket for an entry towards the Week 16 championship game where $25,000 will be awarded. Another way to get a ticket is to go after the $20 entry satellite that is giving away four tickets. Check out all of these contests and more at our FantasyScore page.
Footballguys has you covered here - both in major DFS announcements and the tools you need to build winning lineups.
Thanks as always for reading The Daily Grind, and good luck this week.