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Over the past few years, there have been several very popular articles written by myself and our very own Chase Stuart that look at an interesting approach to building a fantasy team with late value picks. Based upon the theory of using both Strength of Schedule ("SOS") and taking two players as a combination to build one very good player, Chase has discussed both Team Defense by Committee ("TDBC") and Quarterback by Committee ("QBBC") as a general fantasy league strategy. In general I think that this is a wise move because very early on in fantasy drafts there are a ton of RB and WR prospects to go after to build a great team. While there are a few studs at QB and also a few choice defenses, I do not see a huge need in leagues to pursue either too hard in the beginning stages of a fantasy draft.
So with this in mind, I started to think about what else can be done with the committee approach. Wide receiver? Perhaps, but not a WR1. Running back? Maybe. Tight end? Hmmm, that's really intriguing. What if you could grab tight ends later in the draft that could combine to perform on a TE1 level, based solely on their current projections and their schedule? Now we're talking. This really got my attention, so I went after this. Let's take a look at how I went about building this committee and then I can digest and discuss the results.
(TIGHT) END GAME
So how to begin? Defenses and quarterbacks are relatively easy to "committee" together. There's usually only one quarterback and certainly only one team defense per NFL club, so the approach is pretty simple as far as picking out which players / teams to try and pair up. When it comes to tight ends, the line is not quite so easy to draw, but I needed some basis to pick which players it made sense to try and combine for a decent committee. I decided that I would use the following criteria to decide which players to start with for evaluating:
CRITERIA #1 - TE13 AND BEYOND
This seems pretty simple. If we want to have a duo that puts up TE1 numbers, that means we want TE12 or better production - else we would just draft TE12 or higher and forget the whole idea. So here is the list of players with which I started, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP):
ADP | Player | Team | ADP | Player | Team |
TE12 | Jack Doyle | IND | TE21 | Evan Engram | NYG |
TE13 | Eric Ebron | DET | TE22 | C.J. Fiedorowicz | HOU |
TE14 | O.J. Howard | TB | TE23 | Jared Cook | OAK |
TE15 | Coby Fleener | NO | TE24 | Dwayne Allen | NE |
TE16 | Julius Thomas | MIA | TE25 | Antonio Gates | LAC |
TE17 | Jason Witten | DAL | TE26 | Jesse James | PIT |
TE18 | Austin Hooper | ATL | TE27 | Zach Miller | CHI |
TE19 | Cameron Brate | TB | TE28 | Charles Clay | BUF |
TE20 | David Njoku | CLE |
Table 1: Tight Ends TE12-TE28 Based on ADP
This year I stopped at TE28 because of how murky the waters (and depth charts) get after Charles Clay, so it is probably best we do not go that deep unless you play in a TE bonus league or one where you can play 2-3 a week. Tampa Bay screams out as an interesting situation to watch with both Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard on this list. If one of them emerges as the leader, he could make for an automatic Top 12 candidate. The Buccaneers and the Giants offer up two rookies with promise (Howard and Evan Engram), but it is rare if a first year tight end ever makes a real splash. Odds are we are going to stick with proven veterans in favorable passing situations. Also note that I added in Jack Doyle (TE12) because of how valuable he appears to be this year, so we should not arbitrarily cut make a cutoff of TE12 this year. If TE12 is a huge value, we should snap him up and not worry that we are "breaking the rules" of waiting for a TE2. Just take the value and move on. So I took the Top 28 tight ends from the ADP list, removed the Top 11 and that left me with 17 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 136 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Now, before I go over the method of how to pair them up and the results, we need one more rule:
CRITERIA #2 - NO MORE THAN ONE TE FROM ROUND 10 AND ONE FROM ROUND 12
This could get tricky here, but understand the overall goal. The point of TEBC is to "free up" the first 9-10 rounds of your fantasy draft to pursue all of the other positions for your team. Grabbing 3-4 running backs and 4-5 receivers after grabbing a stud RB or WR in Round 1 sounds like a good idea to me. This also gives you the flexibility of grabbing a stud QB, depending on your personal preference, or even to get TE1 if there's a huge value play available and have the "TEBC" be your TE2 (although I would only recommend this in very deep leagues with 20+ roster spots). Flexibility is the name of the game here. We all want value in our drafts, and having the ability to grab lots of RBs and WRs in the first 9-10 Rounds gives us that ability.
Here is the good news - all of the tight ends on the list above have ADPs that are Round 10 or higher (later). In fact, only Jack Doyle has an ADP in Round 10, with everyone else presently either in Round 11 (Eric Ebron) or going in Round 12 or later. We will have to keep that in mind when we look at the result because if we decide to use Doyle, we have to grab him in Round 10 to secure that first tight end and if we want Ebron we also have to act fast so we can get the combination that we want.
So what do we do now to figure out some TE pairs?
CRITERIA #3 - USE FOOTBALLGUYS' TE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
This sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Just take the TE Strength of Schedule to figure out when certain players are more likely to score well. What I did is similar to what the Projections Dominator and Draft Dominator do for you - take the projected fantasy points and slice them up over 17 weeks based on the strength of schedule. I call this result the "distributed fantasy points" for each receiver.
After I had all 17 tight ends with distributed fantasy points on a weekly basis, I just compared all of the possible TE pairs to find the best duos for TEBC. So here we are - time for some results.
Rank | Tight End 1 | Tight End 2 | Value |
1 | Jack Doyle | Eric Ebron | 118.16 |
2 | Jack Doyle | Jared Cook | 114.77 |
3 | Jack Doyle | Coby Fleener | 113.74 |
4 | Jack Doyle | C.J. Fiedorowicz | 112.99 |
5 | Jack Doyle | Charles Clay | 112.92 |
6 | Jack Doyle | Austin Hooper | 111.51 |
7 | Eric Ebron | Jason Witten | 110.91 |
8 | Jack Doyle | Antonio Gates | 110.32 |
9 | Jack Doyle | Jason Witten | 109.35 |
10 | Eric Ebron | Coby Fleener | 109.02 |
11 | Jack Doyle | Jesse James | 108.89 |
12 | Jack Doyle | Zach Miller | 108.66 |
13 | Jack Doyle | Cameron Brate | 107.99 |
14 | Eric Ebron | Cameron Brate | 107.96 |
15 | Jack Doyle | Dwayne Allen | 107.33 |
16 | Jack Doyle | David Njoku | 107.31 |
17 | Jack Doyle | Julius Thomas | 106.07 |
18 | Eric Ebron | Jesse James | 106.02 |
19 | Jack Doyle | Evan Engram | 106.00 |
20 | Eric Ebron | Zach Miller | 105.25 |
21 | Eric Ebron | Julius Thomas | 104.84 |
22 | Eric Ebron | Jared Cook | 104.34 |
23 | Coby Fleener | Jason Witten | 103.58 |
24 | Eric Ebron | Charles Clay | 103.52 |
25 | Eric Ebron | Antonio Gates | 102.95 |
26 | Eric Ebron | Austin Hooper | 102.88 |
27 | Eric Ebron | David Njoku | 102.02 |
28 | Jason Witten | C.J. Fiedorowicz | 101.80 |
29 | Jack Doyle | O.J. Howard | 101.74 |
30 | Jack Doyle | n/a | 101.74 |
31 | Eric Ebron | Dwayne Allen | 101.20 |
32 | Eric Ebron | C.J. Fiedorowicz | 100.99 |
33 | Coby Fleener | Cameron Brate | 100.75 |
34 | Jason Witten | Jared Cook | 100.15 |
35 | Jason Witten | Austin Hooper | 99.53 |
36 | Eric Ebron | Evan Engram | 99.48 |
37 | Eric Ebron | O.J. Howard | 99.21 |
38 | Cameron Brate | Jared Cook | 97.49 |
39 | Jason Witten | Julius Thomas | 97.34 |
40 | Coby Fleener | Julius Thomas | 97.06 |
41 | Coby Fleener | C.J. Fiedorowicz | 96.98 |
42 | Coby Fleener | Charles Clay | 96.91 |
43 | Cameron Brate | C.J. Fiedorowicz | 96.72 |
44 | Cameron Brate | Austin Hooper | 96.71 |
45 | Coby Fleener | Antonio Gates | 96.53 |
46 | Jason Witten | Antonio Gates | 96.51 |
47 | Eric Ebron | n/a | 96.20 |
Table 2: Tight End Committee Pairs
As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for TEBC. There are 29 pairs that are worth more than Jack Doyle by his lonesome, who is projected to come in with 101.74 points. Further, if we go beyond Doyle, we have an additional 16 pairs of tight ends that are work more than Eric Ebron (96.2 projected points), Let's also take a look at how often some of these guys show up on the table:
Tight End | Freq | Tight End | Freq |
Eric Ebron | 16 | Julius Thomas | 4 |
Jack Doyle | 16 | Charles Clay | 3 |
Coby Fleener | 8 | David Njoku | 2 |
Jason Witten | 8 | Dwayne Allen | 2 |
Cameron Brate | 6 | Evan Engram | 2 |
C.J. Fiedorowicz | 5 | Jesse James | 2 |
Antonio Gates | 4 | O.J. Howard | 2 |
Austin Hooper | 4 | Zach Miller | 2 |
Jared Cook | 4 |
Table 3: Tight End Committee Pair Appearances by Player
As we can see from Table 3, the results are dominated by two guys – Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron – which should come as no surprise. These are the top two options and also the first two tight ends going off the board on our list. They appear to be the top choices by far, but we still need to explore all of the options. Some other players appear reasonably often, such as Coby Fleener and Jason Witten (eight times each), Cameron Brate (six) and C.J. Fiedorowicz (five). Given that every other tight end only appears four times or less, we should not be surprised if these six tight ends comprise our top options for tight end by committee, but let's be thorough and complete the analysis with a closer look at all of the results. .
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Now that we have 29 possible pairs that are better than Jack Doyle and 16 more than Eric Ebron, what exactly does that mean? Should these two players be the basis of our comparison? Of course not. Remember our goal - find a pair of tight ends that can combine for TE1-type fantasy production. To figure that out we need a better metric, so here are the projections for the Top 12 TEs in standard scoring:
ADP | TE Rank | Player | Team/Bye | FPs | FP Rank |
19 | 1 | Rob Gronkowski | NE | 147.98 | 1 |
31 | 2 | Travis Kelce | KC | 138.26 | 2 |
45 | 4 | Greg Olsen | CAR | 128.81 | 3 |
37 | 3 | Jordan Reed | WAS | 122.26 | 4 |
60 | 5 | Jimmy Graham | SEA | 119.88 | 5 |
67 | 6 | Tyler Eifert | CIN | 116.97 | 6 |
79 | 7 | Delanie Walker | TEN | 115.83 | 7 |
86 | 8 | Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 111.73 | 8 |
93 | 10 | Hunter Henry | LAC | 108.14 | 9 |
95 | 11 | Zach Ertz | PHI | 105.9 | 10 |
116 | 12 | Jack Doyle | IND | 101.74 | 11 |
90 | 9 | Martellus Bennett | GB | 99.04 | 12 |
121 | 13 | Eric Ebron | DET | 96.2 | 13 |
141 | 15 | Coby Fleener | NO | 87.48 | 14 |
156 | 19 | Cameron Brate | TB | 84.96 | 15 |
154 | 17 | Jason Witten | DAL | 84.82 | 16 |
151 | 16 | Julius Thomas | MIA | 80.45 | 17 |
Table 4: Projected Fantasy Points for Top 12+ ADP TEs
Based on Table 4, we see that the Top 4 and Top 8 groups are pretty well defined, but TE9-14 is certainly up for debate. Both Hunter Henry (TE10) and Zach Ertz (TE11) come in ahead of Martellus Bennett (TE9), with both Jack Doyle (TE12) and Eric Ebron (TE13) very close to Bennett. The fact that Doyle is ahead of Bennett and Ebron is just three points behind of Bennett make both very attractive targets for later round selections.
So how best to evaluate the TEBC pairs from Table 2 against the top tight ends? The best way for me is to pick a baseline of one of the worst projected Top 10 tight end (Zach Ertz, 105.9 points projected) and add 4-6 points for a bye week filler tight end to cover Ertz' bye week. That creates a baseline score in the 109.9-111.9 range. Casting our gaze back at Table 2, the Top 8 tight end pairs on the list fall right in this range. This tells us that choosing the correct pair can give us the result we wanted - TE1 production on the cheap.
Considering all of the results, the TEBC committee recipe for 2017 has one clear preferred choice - Jack Doyle - who comes in as TE12 on the ADP list at this time. Selecting Jack Doyle in Round 10 and then taking either Coby Fleener ("Plan A") or Jason Witten ("Plan B") before either one disappears by the end of Round 12 looks like the best option. Alternatively, you can take Eric Ebron in Round 10 ("Plan C") if Doyle is no longer available and then select Coby Fleener or Jason Witten (both about equal) in Round 12. Even though Doyle is technically not a TE2 as TE12, I have no issue in taking Doyle in Round 10 to lock him up and then taking the next best option on Table 2 to close out the duo by the end of Round 12. Given how little predictable value there is after the Top 18 tight ends are off the board, locking up two makes the most sense.
Now you might wonder about the first pair on the list on Table 2 - Jared Cook and Jack Doyle. Given the uncertainty with Jared Cook in Oakland, I would hesitate investing in Cook, although you can make the argument that you would be relying on Doyle most weeks anyway, so this can be a "Plan D" if Witten slips through your fingers. Given Cook's ADP of Round 14-15, he makes a reasonable backup option.
An example schedule is provided in Tables 5 for my favorite two TEBC options this season. Here I give you the best weekly plays for each tight end, based on projections.
Week | Suggested Player | Opponent |
1 | Jack Doyle | at Los Angeles Rams |
2 | Coby Fleener | New England |
3 | Jack Doyle | Cleveland |
4 | Coby Fleener | at Miami (London) |
5 | Jack Doyle | San Francisco |
6* | Jack Doyle | at Tennessee |
7 | Jack Doyle | Jacksonville |
8 | Jack Doyle | at Cincinnati |
9 | Coby Fleener | Tampa Bay |
10 | Jack Doyle | Pittsburgh |
11 | Coby Fleener | Washington |
12 | Jack Doyle | Tennessee |
13** | Jack Doyle | at Jacksonville |
14*** | Coby Fleener | Dallas |
15 | Coby Fleener | Philadelphia |
16 | Jack Doyle | at Baltimore |
*Week 6 = Close call with Fleener vs. Detroit | ||
**Week 13 = Close call with Fleener vs. Carolina | ||
***Week 14 = Close call with Doyle at Buffalo |
Table 5: Suggested TEBC Schedule Plan - Jack Doyle and Coby Fleener
Week | Suggested Player | Opponent |
1 | Jason Witten | New York Giants |
2 | Eric Ebron | at New York Giants |
3 | Eric Ebron | Atlanta |
4* | Eric Ebron | at Minnesota |
5 | Eric Ebron | Carolina |
6 | Eric Ebron | at New Orleans |
7 | Jason Witten | at San Francisco |
8 | Jason Witten | at Washington |
9 | Eric Ebron | at Green Bay |
10 | Eric Ebron | Cleveland |
11 | Eric Ebron | at Chicago |
12** | Eric Ebron | Minnesota |
13 | Jason Witten | Washington |
14 | Jason Witten | at New York Giants |
15 | Jason Witten | at Oakland |
16 | Eric Ebron | at Cincinnati |
*Week 4 = Close call with Witten vs. Los Angeles Rams | ||
**Week 12 = Close call with Witten vs. Los Angeles Chargers |
Table 6: Suggested TEBC Schedule Plan - Eric Ebron and Jason Witten
Week | Suggested Player | Opponent |
1 | Jason Witten | New York Giants |
2 | Jason Witten | at Denver |
3 | Jack Doyle | Cleveland |
4 | Jack Doyle | at Seattle |
5 | Jack Doyle | San Francisco |
6 | Jack Doyle | at Tennessee |
7 | Jason Witten | at San Francisco |
8 | Jack Doyle | at Cincinnati |
9 | Jason Witten | Kansas City |
10* | Jason Witten | at Atlanta |
11 | Jason Witten | Philadelphia |
12 | Jack Doyle | Tennessee |
13 | Jason Witten | Washington |
14 | Jason Witten | at New York Giants |
15 | Jason Witten | at Oakland |
16 | Jack Doyle | at Baltimore |
*Week 10 = Close call with Jack Doyle vs. Pittsburgh |
Table 7: Suggested TEBC Schedule Plan - Jack Doyle and Jason Witten
Week | Suggested Player | Opponent |
1 | Coby Fleener | at Minnesota |
2 | Eric Ebron | at New York Giants |
3 | Eric Ebron | Atlanta |
4 | Coby Fleener | at Miami (London) |
5 | Eric Ebron | Carolina |
6 | Coby Fleener | Detroit |
7 | Coby Fleener | at Green Bay |
8 | Eric Ebron | Pittsburgh |
9 | Eric Ebron | at Green Bay |
10 | Eric Ebron | Cleveland |
11 | Coby Fleener | Washington |
12 | Eric Ebron | Minnesota |
13 | Coby Fleener | Carolina |
14 | Coby Fleener | at Atlanta |
15 | Coby Fleener | New York Jets |
16 | Eric Ebron | at Cincinnati |
Table 8: Suggested TEBC Schedule Plan - Eric Ebron and Coby Fleener
The committee approach is not a perfect one, but having this knowledge prior to your fantasy draft can prove to be invaluable if you decide to adopt this approach. If all the players on your starter list are gone, goiong with a committee can save your team and help you deal with the loss of bigger names. The method is also a big help in "Best Ball" leagues, where lineup decisions are not necessary every week. That's exactly where a committee can do the best, as either player can count for you each week.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.