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Over the past few years, there have been two very popular articles written by our very own Chase Stuart that look at an interesting approach to building a fantasy team with late value picks. Based upon the theory of using both Strength of Schedule ("SOS") and taking two players as a combination to build one very good player, he has discussed both Team Defense by Committee ("TDBC") and Quarterback by Committee ("QBBC") as a general fantasy league strategy. In general I think that this is a wise move because very early on in fantasy drafts there are a ton of RB and WR prospects to go after to build a great team. While there are a few studs at QB and also a few choice defenses, I do not see a huge need in leagues to pursue either too hard in the beginning stages of a fantasy draft.
So with this in mind, I started to think about what else can be done with the committee approach. Tight end? Perhaps. Wide receiver? A possibility, but it might be better to look at third WR options than any other option. What about running back? Hmmm, that's really intriguing. What if you could grab two running backs later in the draft that could combine to perform on a RB2 - or even RB1 - level, based solely on their current projections and their schedule? Now we're talking. This really got my attention, so I went after this one first. Let's take a look at how I went about this and then we can digest and discuss the results.
THE GROUND(GAME) RULES
So how to begin? Defenses and quarterbacks are relatively easy to "committee" together. There's usually only one QB and certainly only one team defense per NFL club, so the approach is pretty simple as far as picking out which players / teams to try and pair up. When it comes to running backs, the line is not quite so easy to draw, but I needed some basis to pick which players it made sense to try and combine for a decent committee. I decided that I would use the following criteria to decide which players to start with for evaluating:
CRITERIA #1 - RB25 AND BEYOND
This seems pretty simple. If we want to have a duo that puts up RB2 numbers, that means we want RB24 or better production - else we would just draft RB24 (C.J. Spiller) or higher and forget the whole idea. But wait a minute - when I look at this list, I see some interesting things. First, RB25 is Joseph Randle of the Cowboys, and he is forecasted to produce RB13-type numbers right now. I am going to make the assumption that he will be long gone by Round 5 and start with RB25 for this list. So here is the list of players with which I started, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP):
ADP | Player | ADP | Player |
RB26 | Joique Bell | RB39 | Ryan Mathews |
RB27 | Giovani Bernard | RB40 | Duke Johnson |
RB28 | Tevin Coleman | RB41 | Bishop Sankey |
RB29 | LeGarrette Blount | RB42 | Charles Sims |
RB30 | Rashad Jennings | RB43 | David Johnson |
RB31 | Ameer Abdullah | RB44 | Knile Davis |
RB32 | Isaiah Crowell | RB45 | David Cobb |
RB33 | Shane Vereen | RB46 | Reggie Bush |
RB34 | Doug Martin | RB47 | Montee Ball |
RB35 | Darren McFadden | RB48 | Danny Woodhead |
RB36 | Chris Ivory | RB49 | Jay Ajayi |
RB37 | Tre Mason | RB50 | DeAngelo Williams |
RB38 | Devonta Freeman |
Table 1: Running Backs RB26-RB50 Based on ADP
Great, now we have 25 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 300 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Now, before I go over the method of how to pair them up and the results, we need one more rule:
CRITERIA #2 - NO MORE THAN ONE RB FROM ROUND 5 AND ONE FROM ROUND 6
This could get tricky here, but understand the overall goal. The point of RB2BC is to "free up" the first 4 rounds of your fantasy draft to pursue 3 receivers after grabbing a stud RB in Round 1. This also gives you the flexibility of grabbing two receivers and a stud QB or TE, depending on your personal preference, or even to get RB2 and have the "RB2BC" be your RB3. Flexibility is the name of the game here. We all want value in our drafts, and having the ability to grab two RBs in Rounds 5 and 6 to act as our RB2BC gives us that ability.
Here is the good news - all the running backs on the list above except for C.J. Spiller (ADP of RB24, 52nd overall) and Randle (ADP of RB25, 57th overall and climbing) have an ADP that is Round 6 or higher (later). It might even be possible to push this into a Round 6 and Round 7 RB pair. We will have to keep that goal in mind when we look at the results because it would not make sense to expect to get two Round 6 running backs in one of these combinations based on their ADP.
So what do we do now to figure out some RB pairs?
CRITERIA #3 - USE FOOTBALLGUYS' RB STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
This sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Just take the RB Strength of Schedule to figure out when certain players are more likely to score well. What I did is similar to what the Projections Dominator and Draft Dominator do for you - take the projected fantasy points and slice them up over 16 weeks based on the strength of schedule. I call this result the "distributed fantasy points" for each back.
After I had all 25 running backs with distributed fantasy points on a weekly basis, I just compared all of the possible RB pairs to find the best duos for RB2BC. So here we are - time for some results.
Rank | Running Back 1 | Running Back 2 | Value |
1 | Joique Bell | LeGarrette Blount | 157.6 |
2 | Giovani Bernard | LeGarrette Blount | 155.9 |
3 | LeGarrette Blount | Isaiah Crowell | 155.5 |
4 | LeGarrette Blount | Chris Ivory | 155.4 |
5 | LeGarrette Blount | Rashad Jennings | 153.2 |
6 | Joique Bell | Isaiah Crowell | 152.5 |
7 | Joique Bell | Chris Ivory | 151.3 |
8 | Joique Bell | Giovani Bernard | 151 |
9 | Rashad Jennings | Chris Ivory | 150.8 |
10 | Joique Bell | Rashad Jennings | 149.5 |
11 | Giovani Bernard | Rashad Jennings | 148.9 |
12 | Giovani Bernard | Chris Ivory | 148.6 |
13 | LeGarrette Blount | Ameer Abdullah | 148.2 |
14 | Giovani Bernard | Tevin Coleman | 148 |
15 | Tevin Coleman | Isaiah Crowell | 147.8 |
16 | LeGarrette Blount | Devonta Freeman | 147.6 |
17 | Giovani Bernard | Isaiah Crowell | 147.2 |
18 | Isaiah Crowell | Chris Ivory | 146.8 |
19 | LeGarrette Blount | Shane Vereen | 146.3 |
20 | Tevin Coleman | LeGarrette Blount | 146.1 |
21 | Tevin Coleman | Rashad Jennings | 144.6 |
22 | Tevin Coleman | Chris Ivory | 144.5 |
23 | LeGarrette Blount | Doug Martin | 144 |
24 | Joique Bell | Tevin Coleman | 143.6 |
25 | LeGarrette Blount | Charles Sims | 143.3 |
26 | Shane Vereen | Chris Ivory | 142.9 |
27 | Rashad Jennings | Isaiah Crowell | 142.7 |
28 | LeGarrette Blount | Darren McFadden | 142.4 |
29 | Joique Bell | Duke Johnson | 142.2 |
30 | Ameer Abdullah | Isaiah Crowell | 141.7 |
31 | LeGarrette Blount | Danny Woodhead | 141.6 |
32 | LeGarrette Blount | Ryan Mathews | 141.6 |
33 | Ameer Abdullah | Chris Ivory | 141.5 |
34 | Rashad Jennings | Ameer Abdullah | 141.1 |
35 | Joique Bell | Devonta Freeman | 141.1 |
36 | Joique Bell | Shane Vereen | 141 |
37 | Chris Ivory | Devonta Freeman | 140.9 |
38 | Doug Martin | Chris Ivory | 140.8 |
39 | Rashad Jennings | Devonta Freeman | 140.6 |
40 | LeGarrette Blount | Knile Davis | 140.5 |
41 | Chris Ivory | Charles Sims | 140.4 |
42 | LeGarrette Blount | Reggie Bush | 140.3 |
43 | Isaiah Crowell | Devonta Freeman | 140.3 |
44 | Chris Ivory | Montee Ball | 140 |
45 | Chris Ivory | Ryan Mathews | 140 |
46 | Giovani Bernard | Ameer Abdullah | 139.9 |
47 | Chris Ivory | Tre Mason | 139.8 |
48 | LeGarrette Blount | David Johnson | 139.7 |
49 | Joique Bell | Doug Martin | 139.6 |
50 | LeGarrette Blount | Tre Mason | 139.4 |
51 | Chris Ivory | Knile Davis | 139.4 |
52 | LeGarrette Blount | Duke Johnson | 139.4 |
53 | Joique Bell | Tre Mason | 139.3 |
54 | Giovani Bernard | Devonta Freeman | 139.3 |
55 | Isaiah Crowell | David Johnson | 139.2 |
56 | Joique Bell | Charles Sims | 139.2 |
57 | LeGarrette Blount | Montee Ball | 139.1 |
58 | Chris Ivory | David Johnson | 139.1 |
59 | Chris Ivory | Reggie Bush | 139.1 |
60 | Joique Bell | Bishop Sankey | 139.1 |
61 | Joique Bell | David Cobb | 139.1 |
62 | Darren McFadden | Chris Ivory | 139 |
63 | Joique Bell | Danny Woodhead | 138.9 |
64 | Joique Bell | Reggie Bush | 138.8 |
65 | Joique Bell | Darren McFadden | 138.7 |
66 | Chris Ivory | Duke Johnson | 138.6 |
67 | Chris Ivory | Danny Woodhead | 138.5 |
68 | Joique Bell | Ryan Mathews | 138.5 |
69 | Isaiah Crowell | Doug Martin | 138.3 |
70 | Rashad Jennings | David Johnson | 138.3 |
71 | Giovani Bernard | Shane Vereen | 138.1 |
72 | Joique Bell | Montee Ball | 138 |
73 | Rashad Jennings | Doug Martin | 138 |
74 | Chris Ivory | David Cobb | 137.9 |
75 | Chris Ivory | Bishop Sankey | 137.8 |
76 | Rashad Jennings | Charles Sims | 137.4 |
77 | Isaiah Crowell | Charles Sims | 137.3 |
78 | Giovani Bernard | Duke Johnson | 137 |
79 | Rashad Jennings | Bishop Sankey | 136.3 |
80 | Rashad Jennings | David Cobb | 136.3 |
81 | LeGarrette Blount | David Cobb | 136.3 |
82 | LeGarrette Blount | Bishop Sankey | 136.2 |
83 | Isaiah Crowell | David Cobb | 136.2 |
84 | Rashad Jennings | Danny Woodhead | 136.2 |
85 | Isaiah Crowell | Bishop Sankey | 136.1 |
86 | Rashad Jennings | Jay Ajayi | 135.8 |
87 | Tevin Coleman | Shane Vereen | 135.8 |
88 | Rashad Jennings | Ryan Mathews | 135.7 |
89 | Rashad Jennings | Montee Ball | 135.7 |
90 | Rashad Jennings | Darren McFadden | 135.5 |
91 | Isaiah Crowell | Danny Woodhead | 135.5 |
92 | Giovani Bernard | Danny Woodhead | 135.4 |
93 | Rashad Jennings | Knile Davis | 135.1 |
94 | Isaiah Crowell | Montee Ball | 135 |
95 | Isaiah Crowell | Ryan Mathews | 135 |
96 | Isaiah Crowell | Jay Ajayi | 135 |
97 | Giovani Bernard | David Cobb | 135 |
98 | Giovani Bernard | Bishop Sankey | 134.9 |
99 | Isaiah Crowell | Darren McFadden | 134.7 |
100 | Rashad Jennings | Reggie Bush | 134.4 |
101 | Isaiah Crowell | Knile Davis | 134.3 |
102 | Giovani Bernard | Darren McFadden | 134.2 |
103 | Giovani Bernard | Tre Mason | 134.1 |
104 | Rashad Jennings | Tre Mason | 134 |
105 | Giovani Bernard | David Johnson | 134 |
106 | Chris Ivory | n/a | 133.7 |
107 | Isaiah Crowell | Reggie Bush | 133.6 |
108 | Tevin Coleman | Ameer Abdullah | 133.6 |
109 | Giovani Bernard | Doug Martin | 133.4 |
110 | Isaiah Crowell | Tre Mason | 133.2 |
111 | Joique Bell | David Johnson | 133.2 |
112 | Giovani Bernard | Ryan Mathews | 133.1 |
113 | Giovani Bernard | Charles Sims | 132.7 |
114 | Isaiah Crowell | Shane Vereen | 132.5 |
115 | Joique Bell | Ameer Abdullah | 132.5 |
116 | Joique Bell | Knile Davis | 132.5 |
117 | Joique Bell | n/a | 132.5 |
Table 2: Running Back #2 Committee Pairs
As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for RB2BC. In fact, We have already eliminated the one running back outside of the Top 24 that will likely not fall to RB25 or later in drafts, Joseph Randle, but there are six backs that are projected to score at least 127 points on their own - Joique Bell, Giovani Bernard, LeGarrette Blount, Rashad Jennings, Isaiash Crowell and Chris Ivory. Combining two of these six options could give us exactly the committee we are seeking, but I need to be thorough as the ADPs tend to get very fluid as preseason wears on, and we need to make certain we have the very best pairings in case our draft plans go awry. So digging in, there are 105 pairs that are worth more than or equal to Chris Ivory by his lonesome and still 10 more pairs worth at least as much as Joique Bell by himself. Let's also take a look at how often some of these guys show up on the table:
Running Back | Frq | Running Back | Frq |
Chris Ivory | 23 | David Cobb | 6 |
Joique Bell | 23 | David Johnson | 6 |
Isaiah Crowell | 22 | Devonta Freeman | 6 |
LeGarrette Blount | 22 | Doug Martin | 6 |
Rashad Jennings | 21 | Ryan Mathews | 6 |
Giovani Bernard | 19 | Shane Vereen | 6 |
Tevin Coleman | 8 | Tre Mason | 6 |
Ameer Abdullah | 7 | Knile Davis | 5 |
Bishop Sankey | 6 | Montee Ball | 5 |
Charles Sims | 6 | Reggie Bush | 5 |
Danny Woodhead | 6 | Duke Johnson | 4 |
Darren McFadden | 6 | Jay Ajayi | 2 |
Table 3: Running Back #2 Committee Pair Appearances by Player
As we can see from Table 3, six RBs show up on this list with a lot of regularity – the same six names mentioned earlier (Ivory, Bell, Crowell, Blount, Jennings and Bernard). That tells that this tier of RB24-36 is pretty up in the air as far as who will do the best. All the more reason to get a favorable pair when it comes to strength of schedule.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Now that we have over 100 possible pairs that are better than Chris Ivory, what exactly does that mean? Should Ivory be the basis of our comparison? Of course not. Remember our goal - find a pair of running backs that can combine for RB2 (or better) fantasy production. To figure that out we need a better metric, so here are the projections for RB1 through RB24:
ADP | RB Rank | Player | Team / Bye | FPs |
2 | 1 | Adrian Peterson | Min/5 | 215.3 |
6 | 2 | Marshawn Lynch | Sea/9 | 214.9 |
4 | 3 | Eddie Lacy | GB/7 | 214.4 |
1 | 4 | LeVeon Bell | Pit/11 | 213.8 |
3 | 5 | Jamaal Charles | KC/9 | 213 |
11 | 6 | Arian Foster | Hou/9 | 202.3 |
12 | 7 | Matt Forte | Chi/7 | 202.1 |
18 | 8 | DeMarco Murray | Phi/8 | 201 |
14 | 9 | C.J. Anderson | Den/7 | 195.4 |
21 | 10 | Jeremy Hill | Cin/7 | 183.1 |
16 | 11 | LeSean McCoy | Buf/8 | 181 |
28 | 12 | Justin Forsett | Bal/9 | 175.2 |
57 | 13 | Joseph Randle | Dal/6 | 172.3 |
37 | 14 | Alfred Morris | Was/8 | 165.1 |
34 | 15 | Mark Ingram | NO/11 | 163.8 |
32 | 16 | Lamar Miller | Mia/5 | 163.4 |
35 | 17 | Frank Gore | Ind/10 | 162 |
30 | 18 | Melvin Gordon | SD/10 | 159.9 |
42 | 19 | Latavius Murray | Oak/6 | 150.3 |
51 | 20 | T.J. Yeldon | Jac/8 | 149.1 |
43 | 21 | Todd Gurley | StL/6 | 148.2 |
38 | 22 | Carlos Hyde | SF/10 | 144.6 |
44 | 23 | Andre Ellington | Ari/9 | 143.8 |
45 | 24 | Jonathan Stewart | Car/5 | 135.9 |
52 | 29 | C.J. Spiller | NO/11 | 128.6 |
Table 4: Projected Fantasy Points for RBs 1-24
Based on Table 4, we see some things that catch the eye. First, the projections and the ADP do not line up well at all. Joseph Randle sticks out like a sore thumb, and then there is a total jumble from RB14-24, with RB13 (Melvin Gordon) and RB18 (Carlos Hyde) projected to finish well below where their ADP suggests. Next, it jumps out that only 19 running backs are projected to score over 150 points. Now, to be fair, these running backs in Table 4 have a giant “zero” on their bye week, while our RB2BC duos never have a week off. To compensate for that, we should add in 5-8 points for a bye week lineup fill-in that someone who owned of these players would use. Looking at our possible RB2BC pairs, we have nine pairs that meet or beat 150 fantasy points, which would put those duos comparable to projected RB22 (Carlos Hyde + 6 points for a bye) or RB23 (Andre Ellington + 6). This tells us that choosing the correct pair can give us the result we wanted - RB2 production on the cheap.
Now, to look for the best bargains available, let's take one more final look at these pairs, focusing on those that project to score at least 140 points:
Rank | Running Back 1 | Running Back 2 | Value | ADP1 | ADP2 |
1 | Joique Bell | LeGarrette Blount | 157.6 | 26 | 29 |
2 | Giovani Bernard | LeGarrette Blount | 155.9 | 27 | 29 |
3 | LeGarrette Blount | Isaiah Crowell | 155.5 | 29 | 32 |
4 | LeGarrette Blount | Chris Ivory | 155.4 | 29 | 36 |
5 | LeGarrette Blount | Rashad Jennings | 153.2 | 29 | 30 |
6 | Joique Bell | Isaiah Crowell | 152.5 | 26 | 32 |
7 | Joique Bell | Chris Ivory | 151.3 | 26 | 36 |
8 | Joique Bell | Giovani Bernard | 151 | 26 | 27 |
9 | Rashad Jennings | Chris Ivory | 150.8 | 30 | 36 |
10 | Joique Bell | Rashad Jennings | 149.5 | 26 | 30 |
11 | Giovani Bernard | Rashad Jennings | 148.9 | 27 | 30 |
12 | Giovani Bernard | Chris Ivory | 148.6 | 27 | 36 |
13 | LeGarrette Blount | Ameer Abdullah | 148.2 | 29 | 31 |
14 | Giovani Bernard | Tevin Coleman | 148 | 27 | 28 |
15 | Tevin Coleman | Isaiah Crowell | 147.8 | 28 | 32 |
16 | LeGarrette Blount | Devonta Freeman | 147.6 | 29 | 38 |
17 | Giovani Bernard | Isaiah Crowell | 147.2 | 27 | 32 |
18 | Isaiah Crowell | Chris Ivory | 146.8 | 32 | 36 |
19 | LeGarrette Blount | Shane Vereen | 146.3 | 29 | 33 |
20 | Tevin Coleman | LeGarrette Blount | 146.1 | 28 | 29 |
21 | Tevin Coleman | Rashad Jennings | 144.6 | 28 | 30 |
22 | Tevin Coleman | Chris Ivory | 144.5 | 28 | 36 |
23 | LeGarrette Blount | Doug Martin | 144 | 29 | 34 |
24 | Joique Bell | Tevin Coleman | 143.6 | 26 | 28 |
25 | LeGarrette Blount | Charles Sims | 143.3 | 29 | 42 |
26 | Shane Vereen | Chris Ivory | 142.9 | 33 | 36 |
27 | Rashad Jennings | Isaiah Crowell | 142.7 | 30 | 32 |
28 | LeGarrette Blount | Darren McFadden | 142.4 | 29 | 35 |
29 | Joique Bell | Duke Johnson | 142.2 | 26 | 40 |
30 | Ameer Abdullah | Isaiah Crowell | 141.7 | 31 | 32 |
31 | LeGarrette Blount | Danny Woodhead | 141.6 | 29 | 48 |
32 | LeGarrette Blount | Ryan Mathews | 141.6 | 29 | 39 |
33 | Ameer Abdullah | Chris Ivory | 141.5 | 31 | 36 |
34 | Rashad Jennings | Ameer Abdullah | 141.1 | 30 | 31 |
35 | Joique Bell | Devonta Freeman | 141.1 | 26 | 38 |
36 | Joique Bell | Shane Vereen | 141 | 26 | 33 |
37 | Chris Ivory | Devonta Freeman | 140.9 | 36 | 38 |
38 | Doug Martin | Chris Ivory | 140.8 | 34 | 36 |
39 | Rashad Jennings | Devonta Freeman | 140.6 | 30 | 38 |
40 | LeGarrette Blount | Knile Davis | 140.5 | 29 | 44 |
41 | Chris Ivory | Charles Sims | 140.4 | 36 | 42 |
42 | LeGarrette Blount | Reggie Bush | 140.3 | 29 | 46 |
43 | Isaiah Crowell | Devonta Freeman | 140.3 | 32 | 38 |
44 | Chris Ivory | Montee Ball | 140 | 36 | 47 |
Table 5: Top 44 RB2BC Options for 2015
In prior years, I would have said that we should focus on the best of the bargain bin - pairs of running backs that include no more than one RB with ADP of RB27, and possibly both backs with ADP of 30 or higher. This year, we have quite the jumbled outlook with uncertainty over which two of the six backs to take. It really comes down to which of the six you like the most, and then you should take both of them in Rounds 6 and 7 - or whichever falls to you in Round 7. Given that Chris Ivory has the lowest ADP (Pick 90, or middle of Round 8) but some of the best value, I would take the back you like the most in Round 6 and then follow up right away in Round 7 with Ivory. In my opinion, New England will also need a strong running game without Tom Brady for a few weeks in September, so the door is wide open for LeGarrette Blount to be a solid RB2 in his own right after his Week 1 suspension. Both teams (the Patriots and the Jets) will need these backs to carry the load, so that is why I am recommending that the RB2BC this year is LeGarrette Blount and Chris Ivory. Take Blount in Round 6 and Ivory and Round 7 and be happy that you stole at least a modest RB2 and possibly a virtual Top 15 back by waiting on the position.
Here is a final summary of the combined schedules for Joique Bell and Lamar Miller, and when the committee approach suggests starting each one:
Wk | Suggested RB | Opponent |
1 | Chris Ivory | Cleveland |
2 | Chris Ivory | at Indianapolis |
3 | LeGarrette Blount | Jacksonville |
4 | Chris Ivory | at Miami |
5 | LeGarrette Blount | at Dallas |
6 | LeGarrette Blount | at Indianapolis |
7 | Chris Ivory | at New England |
8 | Chris Ivory | at Oakland |
9 | Chris Ivory | Jacksonville |
10 | LeGarrette Blount | at New York Giants |
11 | Chris Ivory | at Houston |
12 | Chris Ivory | Miami |
13 | LeGarrette Blount | Philadelphia |
14 | LeGarrette Blount | at Houston |
15 | LeGarrette Blount | Tennessee |
16 | Chris Ivory | New England |
Table 6: Suggested RB2BC Schedule Plan
The committee approach is not a perfect one, but having this knowledge prior to your fantasy draft can prove to be invaluable if you decide to adopt this approach. If all the players on your starter list are gone, goiong with a committee can save your team and help you deal with the loss of bigger names. The method is also a big help in "Best Ball" leagues, where lineup decisions are not necessary every week. That's exactly where a committee can do the best, as either player can count for you each week.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.