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There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2014 season, I decided to take the #24 WR for the year (Jordan Matthews, 134.2 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking WR24 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 24th WR should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a WR2 and a great WR3.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a wide receiver has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of WR performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 24th WR average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a WR Quality Start.
Using the WR Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
WR Start Type | Fantasy Points |
---|---|
Bad Start | 0 to 6.3 |
Quality Start | 6.4 to 10.5 |
Excellent Start | 10.6+ |
Table 1: 2014 WR Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - Standard Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 75 WRs from 2014 and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Player | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total |
Antonio Brown | PIT | 13 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
Jordy Nelson | GBP | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
Dez Bryant | DAL | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
Odell Beckham | NYG | 8 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
Randall Cobb | GBP | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
Julio Jones | ATL | 7 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
Jeremy Maclin | PHI | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
Mike Evans | TBB | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
T.Y. Hilton | IND | 8 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
Golden Tate | DET | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
Calvin Johnson | DET | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 |
DeSean Jackson | WAS | 8 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
Mike Wallace | MIA | 7 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
Torrey Smith | BAL | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
Steve Smith | BAL | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
Anquan Boldin | SFO | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
Brandon LaFell | NEP | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
A.J. Green | CIN | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
Jordan Matthews | PHI | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
Sammy Watkins | BUF | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
Roddy White | ATL | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
Julian Edelman | NEP | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
Eric Decker | NYJ | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
Mohamed Sanu | CIN | 6 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
Malcom Floyd | SDC | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
Eddie Royal | SDC | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
Michael Floyd | ARI | 6 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
Marques Colston | NOS | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
Brandon Marshall | CHI | 5 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
Rueben Randle | NYG | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
Kenny Stills | NOS | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
Kendall Wright | TEN | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
Vincent Jackson | TBB | 2 | 7 | 7 | 16 |
Greg Jennings | MIN | 2 | 8 | 6 | 16 |
Terrance Williams | DAL | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
Andre Johnson | HOU | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
Martavis Bryant | PIT | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
Allen Hurns | JAC | 3 | 3 | 10 | 16 |
Doug Baldwin | SEA | 3 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
James Jones | OAK | 4 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
Robert Woods | BUF | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
John Brown | ARI | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
Keenan Allen | SDC | 4 | 0 | 10 | 14 |
Jarvis Landry | MIA | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
Andrew Hawkins | CLE | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
Kenny Britt | STL | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Michael Crabtree | SFO | 4 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
Andre Holmes | OAK | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
Pierre Garcon | WAS | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 |
Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 3 | 1 | 10 | 14 |
Reggie Wayne | IND | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Brandin Cooks | NOS | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
Percy Harvin | NYJ | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
Markus Wheaton | PIT | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
Jarius Wright | MIN | 3 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
Nate Washington | TEN | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
Dwayne Bowe | KCC | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
Riley Cooper | PHI | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
Devin Hester | ATL | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
Harry Douglas | ATL | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
Taylor Gabriel | CLE | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 |
Miles Austin | CLE | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
Allen Robinson | JAC | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
Justin Hunter | TEN | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
Jerricho Cotchery | CAR | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 |
Hakeem Nicks | IND | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
Donte Moncrief | IND | 2 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
Cecil Shorts | JAC | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 |
Davante Adams | GBP | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
Chris Hogan | BUF | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
331 | 223 | 528 |
Table 2: 2014 WR Start Types Sorted By Top 75 WRs - Standard Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are far more Excellent Starts (331) than Quality Starts (223), a difference of 108 starts. That difference has been even larger in the past several seasons, with 2012 at 104 (355 Excellent, 251 Quality Starts), 2011 at 106 (346, 240) and 2010 at 112 (334, 222). The only season in recent memory with a difference under 100 was 2013, where it was 318 Excellent Starts versus 240 Quality Starts - a testament to how low the "Excellence" was that season. The disparity between the two metrics does start to rise since there is no PPR in the equation now - touchdowns for six big points are a much larger factor. The scoring range is also smaller and the range of a Quality Start is small due to lower scores, so more touchdowns would lead to bigger "Excellent Starts". There were a lot of Bad Starts in 2014 (528), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The net results look like a good trend, which means that our distribution is close to normal and that our baseline point range does make sense.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting wide receiver in this system. We want a WR that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL wide receiver. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY WRVALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average WR performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Player | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | Net Val |
Antonio Brown | PIT | 13 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 12 |
Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 |
Randall Cobb | GBP | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 |
Jordy Nelson | GBP | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 7 |
Dez Bryant | DAL | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 |
Odell Beckham | NYG | 8 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 7 |
Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 |
Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 7 |
T.Y. Hilton | IND | 8 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 5 |
Julio Jones | ATL | 7 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
Mike Evans | TBB | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 3 |
Mike Wallace | MIA | 7 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
Torrey Smith | BAL | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 3 |
A.J. Green | CIN | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
Roddy White | ATL | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 2 |
Jeremy Maclin | PHI | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
DeSean Jackson | WAS | 8 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 1 |
Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
Calvin Johnson | DET | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
Brandon LaFell | NEP | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Julian Edelman | NEP | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Martavis Bryant | PIT | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Golden Tate | DET | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -1 |
DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -1 |
Eric Decker | NYJ | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -1 |
Michael Floyd | ARI | 6 | 1 | 7 | 14 | -1 |
Terrance Williams | DAL | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -1 |
Allen Robinson | JAC | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -1 |
Steve Smith | BAL | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -2 |
Malcom Floyd | SDC | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -2 |
Marques Colston | NOS | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -2 |
Brandon Marshall | CHI | 5 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -2 |
Brandin Cooks | NOS | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -2 |
Jordan Matthews | PHI | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -3 |
Mohamed Sanu | CIN | 6 | 1 | 9 | 16 | -3 |
Eddie Royal | SDC | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -3 |
Kendall Wright | TEN | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -3 |
Anquan Boldin | SFO | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -4 |
Sammy Watkins | BUF | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -4 |
Greg Jennings | MIN | 2 | 8 | 6 | 16 | -4 |
Robert Woods | BUF | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | -4 |
Andrew Hawkins | CLE | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -4 |
Kenny Stills | NOS | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -5 |
Vincent Jackson | TBB | 2 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -5 |
Andre Johnson | HOU | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -5 |
Harry Douglas | ATL | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 |
Chris Hogan | BUF | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 |
Rueben Randle | NYG | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -6 |
James Jones | OAK | 4 | 2 | 10 | 16 | -6 |
Keenan Allen | SDC | 4 | 0 | 10 | 14 | -6 |
Jarvis Landry | MIA | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 |
Andre Holmes | OAK | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | -6 |
Percy Harvin | NYJ | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -6 |
Justin Hunter | TEN | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -6 |
Hakeem Nicks | IND | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -6 |
Allen Hurns | JAC | 3 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -7 |
John Brown | ARI | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 | -7 |
Kenny Britt | STL | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 |
Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 3 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -7 |
Reggie Wayne | IND | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 |
Jarius Wright | MIN | 3 | 0 | 10 | 13 | -7 |
Miles Austin | CLE | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -7 |
Cecil Shorts | JAC | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -7 |
Davante Adams | GBP | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -7 |
Michael Crabtree | SFO | 4 | 0 | 12 | 16 | -8 |
Nate Washington | TEN | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -8 |
Devin Hester | ATL | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -8 |
Donte Moncrief | IND | 2 | 0 | 10 | 12 | -8 |
Doug Baldwin | SEA | 3 | 1 | 12 | 16 | -9 |
Pierre Garcon | WAS | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -9 |
Markus Wheaton | PIT | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -9 |
Taylor Gabriel | CLE | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -9 |
Dwayne Bowe | KCC | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -10 |
Jerricho Cotchery | CAR | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | -11 |
Riley Cooper | PHI | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -12 |
Table 3: 2014 WR Start Types Sorted By Value - Standard Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. The first observation is that there are an extraordinary number of receivers with a positive Net Value that had fewer than three or less Bad Starts in all of 2014, including all of the Top 9 on the list. The only other receiver to match these numbers (and in only 11 games) with a Net Value in the positive range was A.J. Green. As expected, Antonio Brown blew away the competition with a +12 Net Value, with 13 Excellent Starts and just one Bad Start. The top of the list was truly elite with eight or more Excellent Starts for the Top 9 receivers and 11 of the Top 13.
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 WRs on the 2015 ADP list.
Player | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | Net Val | ADP |
Antonio Brown | PIT | 13 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 5 |
Randall Cobb | GBP | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 23 |
Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 11 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 10 |
Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 29 |
Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 24 |
Jordy Nelson | GBP | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 20 |
Dez Bryant | DAL | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 8 |
Odell Beckham | NYG | 8 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 7 |
T.Y. Hilton | IND | 8 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 26 |
Mike Wallace | MIA | 7 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 78 |
Mike Evans | TBB | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 25 |
A.J. Green | CIN | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 22 |
Julio Jones | ATL | 7 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 13 |
Roddy White | ATL | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 89 |
Jeremy Maclin | PHI | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 66 |
DeSean Jackson | WAS | 8 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 55 |
Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 32 |
Brandon LaFell | NEP | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 94 |
Martavis Bryant | PIT | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 64 |
Julian Edelman | NEP | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 52 |
Calvin Johnson | DET | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 18 |
Michael Floyd | ARI | 6 | 1 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 79 |
Allen Robinson | JAC | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -1 | 70 |
Golden Tate | DET | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -1 | 50 |
DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -1 | 31 |
Brandon Marshall | CHI | 5 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -2 | 63 |
Brandin Cooks | NOS | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -2 | 37 |
Jordan Matthews | PHI | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -3 | 41 |
Sammy Watkins | BUF | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -4 | 46 |
Vincent Jackson | TBB | 2 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -5 | 73 |
Andre Johnson | HOU | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -5 | 56 |
Jarvis Landry | MIA | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 74 |
Keenan Allen | SDC | 4 | 0 | 10 | 14 | -6 | 49 |
Amari Cooper | OAK | ROOKIE | 53 | ||||
Kevin White | CHI | ROOKIE | 80 | ||||
Nelson Agholor | PHI | ROOKIE | 82 |
Table 4: 2015 Top Drafted WRs Sorted By 2014 Value - Standard Scoring
Note that three rookies are listed at the bottom of this list as Amari Cooper, Nelson Agholor and Kevin White are going in the first 36 wide receiver picks in most drafts.
Judging form 2014, there are some definite values at the top of the chart. Mike Wallace and Roddy White both jump off of the page as values, with both of them representing solid Top 14 wide receiver values even though the can be had after the seventh round. Questions are certainly valid about Wallace and his value now in Minnesota, but White should be right there again in production for the Falcons. Jeremy Maclin is another receiver with potential value if he can perform as a WR1 with his new team, Kansas City.
On the flip side, we have to take a long look at the wide receivers in the Top 36 that are hard to justify their place here based on Quality Starts from last season. Allen Robinson in Jacksonville (-1 Net Value) had just two Excellent Starts, but his ADP puts him in the late sixth round (ahead of Roddy White). That just seems like a bad pick to me, no matter how much better you might think the Jaguars could be in 2015. One player to note is near the bottom of the list, Vincent Jackson - who had a woeful year last season with just two touchdowns. If he had found the end zone with more regularity to complement his 70 catches and 1,002 yards, he would have fared far better - so keep that in mind. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.