There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2013 season, I decided to take the #24 WR for the year (Torrey Smith, 139.8 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking WR24 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 24th WR should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a WR2 and a great WR3.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a wide receiver has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of WR performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 24th WR average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a WR Quality Start.
Using the WR Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
WR Start Type | Fantasy Points |
---|---|
Bad Start | 0 to 6.5 |
Quality Start | 6.6 to 10.9 |
Excellent Start | 11.0+ |
Table 1: 2013 WR Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - Standard Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 75 WRs from 2013 and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Wide Receiver | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 9 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
Josh Gordon | CLE | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
Antonio Brown | PIT | 8 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
Calvin Johnson | DET | 8 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
A.J. Green | CIN | 11 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
Brandon Marshall | CHI | 9 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
Dez Bryant | DAL | 9 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
Eric Decker | DEN | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
DeSean Jackson | PHI | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
Jordy Nelson | GBP | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
Andre Johnson | HOU | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
Pierre Garcon | WAS | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
Vincent Jackson | TBB | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
Julian Edelman | NEP | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
Anquan Boldin | SFO | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 8 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
Keenan Allen | SDC | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
Golden Tate | SEA | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
Cordarrelle Patterson | MIN | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
T.Y. Hilton | IND | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
Marvin Jones | CIN | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
Wes Welker | DEN | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
Torrey Smith | BAL | 4 | 8 | 4 | 16 |
Riley Cooper | PHI | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
Michael Floyd | ARI | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
Mike Wallace | MIA | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
Brian Hartline | MIA | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 |
Marques Colston | NOS | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
Victor Cruz | NYG | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
Emmanuel Sanders | PIT | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
Harry Douglas | ATL | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 |
Kendall Wright | TEN | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 |
Jerricho Cotchery | PIT | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
Ted Ginn, Jr. | CAR | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
Eddie Royal | SDC | 5 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
Tavon Austin | STL | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
Nate Washington | TEN | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
Rod Streater | OAK | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
Doug Baldwin | SEA | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
Rueben Randle | NYG | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
Greg Jennings | MIN | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
Terrance Williams | DAL | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
Jacoby Jones | BAL | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
Denarius Moore | OAK | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
Marlon Brown | BAL | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
Steve Smith | CAR | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
Dwayne Bowe | KCC | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
James Jones | GBP | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
Jarrett Boykin | GBP | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
Brandon LaFell | CAR | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
Kenny Stills | NOS | 4 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
Cecil Shorts | JAC | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 |
DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
Hakeem Nicks | NYG | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
Roddy White | ATL | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
Robert Woods | BUF | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
Keshawn Martin | HOU | 2 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
Stevie Johnson | BUF | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
Randall Cobb | GBP | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
Jerome Simpson | MIN | 2 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
Jeremy Kerley | NYJ | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
Aaron Dobson | NEP | 3 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
Danny Amendola | NEP | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
Jermaine Kearse | SEA | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
Ace Sanders | JAC | 0 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
Julio Jones | ATL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Kenbrell Thompkins | NEP | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
Donnie Avery | KCC | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
Dwayne Harris | DAL | 2 | 0 | 11 | 13 |
Tiquan Underwood | TBB | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
Austin Pettis | STL | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 |
Greg Little | CLE | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 |
Santana Moss | WAS | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 |
Reggie Wayne | IND | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
Totals | 318 | 240 | 511 |
Table 2: 2013 WR Start Types Sorted By Top 75 WRs - Standard Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are far more Excellent Starts (318) than Quality Starts (240), a difference of 78 starts. That difference has been even larger in the past several seasons, with 2012 at 104 (355 Excellent, 251 Quality Starts), 2011 at 106 (346, 240) and 2010 at 112 (334, 222). The disparity does start to rise since there is no PPR in the equation now - touchdowns for six big points are a much larger factor. The scoring range is also smaller and the range of a Quality Start is small due to lower scores, so more touchdowns would lead to bigger "Excellent Starts". There are a lot of Bad Starts (511), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The net results look like a good trend, which means that our distribution is close to normal and that our baseline point range does make sense.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting wide receiver in this system. We want a WR that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL wide receiver. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY WRVALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average WR performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Wide Receiver | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | Net Val |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Gordon | CLE | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
A.J. Green | CIN | 11 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 7 |
Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 9 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 6 |
Antonio Brown | PIT | 8 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 6 |
Brandon Marshall | CHI | 9 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 6 |
Dez Bryant | DAL | 9 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 5 |
Julio Jones | ATL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
Calvin Johnson | DET | 8 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 4 |
Jordy Nelson | GBP | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 3 |
Keenan Allen | SDC | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 3 |
Wes Welker | DEN | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
Randall Cobb | GBP | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 2 |
Andre Johnson | HOU | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 |
DeSean Jackson | PHI | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
Pierre Garcon | WAS | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 8 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 1 |
Eric Decker | DEN | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Vincent Jackson | TBB | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Julian Edelman | NEP | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Anquan Boldin | SFO | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Torrey Smith | BAL | 4 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
Cordarrelle Patterson | MIN | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -1 |
Marvin Jones | CIN | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -1 |
Jarrett Boykin | GBP | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -1 |
Cecil Shorts | JAC | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -1 |
Reggie Wayne | IND | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -1 |
Golden Tate | SEA | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -2 |
Emmanuel Sanders | PIT | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -2 |
Kendall Wright | TEN | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -2 |
Denarius Moore | OAK | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -2 |
Michael Floyd | ARI | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -3 |
Brian Hartline | MIA | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -3 |
Marques Colston | NOS | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -3 |
Victor Cruz | NYG | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -3 |
Jerricho Cotchery | PIT | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -3 |
Doug Baldwin | SEA | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -3 |
Rueben Randle | NYG | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -3 |
Marlon Brown | BAL | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -3 |
Dwayne Bowe | KCC | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -3 |
Stevie Johnson | BUF | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -3 |
T.Y. Hilton | IND | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -4 |
Riley Cooper | PHI | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | -4 |
Mike Wallace | MIA | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -4 |
Harry Douglas | ATL | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -4 |
Eddie Royal | SDC | 5 | 1 | 9 | 15 | -4 |
Jacoby Jones | BAL | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -4 |
James Jones | GBP | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -4 |
Ted Ginn, Jr. | CAR | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -5 |
Tavon Austin | STL | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -5 |
Brandon LaFell | CAR | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -5 |
Kenny Stills | NOS | 4 | 1 | 9 | 14 | -5 |
Roddy White | ATL | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -5 |
Jeremy Kerley | NYJ | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 |
Aaron Dobson | NEP | 3 | 0 | 8 | 11 | -5 |
Kenbrell Thompkins | NEP | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -5 |
Tiquan Underwood | TBB | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -5 |
Rod Streater | OAK | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -6 |
Terrance Williams | DAL | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 |
Hakeem Nicks | NYG | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | -6 |
Danny Amendola | NEP | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -6 |
Jermaine Kearse | SEA | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | -6 |
Greg Jennings | MIN | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 | -7 |
Robert Woods | BUF | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -7 |
Nate Washington | TEN | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 | -8 |
Steve Smith | CAR | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -8 |
DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -8 |
Donnie Avery | KCC | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -8 |
Ace Sanders | JAC | 0 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -9 |
Dwayne Harris | DAL | 2 | 0 | 11 | 13 | -9 |
Austin Pettis | STL | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 | -9 |
Keshawn Martin | HOU | 2 | 2 | 12 | 16 | -10 |
Jerome Simpson | MIN | 2 | 2 | 12 | 16 | -10 |
Greg Little | CLE | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -10 |
Santana Moss | WAS | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -10 |
Totals | 318 | 240 | 511 |
Table 3: 2013 WR Start Types Sorted By Value - Standard Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. The first observation is that there are four receivers (Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Randall Cobb) with a positive Net Value that had fewer than two or less Bad Starts in all of 2013. Even three bad starts with no PPR is remarkable, and that adds four more names (Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Keenan Allen and Wes Welker) to the list.
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 WRs on the 2014 ADP list.
Wide Receiver | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | Net Val | ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Gordon | CLE | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 | WR46 |
A.J. Green | CIN | 11 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 10 |
Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 9 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 8 |
Antonio Brown | PIT | 8 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 24 |
Brandon Marshall | CHI | 9 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 18 |
Dez Bryant | DAL | 9 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 9 |
Julio Jones | ATL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
Calvin Johnson | DET | 8 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 4 |
Jordy Nelson | GBP | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 23 |
Keenan Allen | SDC | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 32 |
Wes Welker | DEN | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 45 |
Randall Cobb | GBP | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 21 |
Andre Johnson | HOU | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 38 |
DeSean Jackson | PHI | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 49 |
Pierre Garcon | WAS | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 36 |
Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 8 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 37 |
Eric Decker | DEN | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 80 |
Vincent Jackson | TBB | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 35 |
Julian Edelman | NEP | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 64 |
Anquan Boldin | SFO | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 | WR47 |
Torrey Smith | BAL | 4 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 61 |
Cordarrelle Patterson | MIN | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -1 | 50 |
Marvin Jones | CIN | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -1 | WR49 |
Jarrett Boykin | GBP | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -1 | WR55 |
Cecil Shorts | JAC | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -1 | WR40 |
Reggie Wayne | IND | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 87 |
Golden Tate | SEA | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -2 | 81 |
Emmanuel Sanders | PIT | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -2 | 76 |
Kendall Wright | TEN | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -2 | 71 |
Denarius Moore | OAK | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -2 | WR72 |
Michael Floyd | ARI | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -3 | 53 |
Marques Colston | NOS | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -3 | 73 |
Victor Cruz | NYG | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -3 | 40 |
T.Y. Hilton | IND | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -4 | 62 |
Mike Wallace | MIA | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -4 | 68 |
Roddy White | ATL | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 46 |
Terrance Williams | DAL | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 84 |
Michael Crabtree | SF | INJURY | 41 | ||||
Percy Harvin | SEA | INJURY | 44 | ||||
Jeremy Maclin | PHI | INJURY | 66 | ||||
Sammy Watkins | BUF | ROOKIE | 78 | ||||
Mike Evans | TB | ROOKIE | WR37/95 | ||||
Brandin Cooks | NO | ROOKIE | WR43/109 |
Table 4: 2014 Top Drafted WRs Sorted By 2013 Value - Standard Scoring
Note that Sammy Watkins is not included due to his rookie status, and two other rookies (Mike Evans, WR37 and Brandin Cooks, WR43) just missed the cut. Three others in the Top 36 (Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin and Jeremy Maclin) are also missing because of their injury issues last season.
Judging form 2013, the first thing we have to do is remove Josh Gordon from consideration as he is expected to get a very big suspension soon. it would appear that Eric Decker would be the best value by far if he was a lock to repeat his numbers, but that could be difficult as he is now with the Jets and not Peyton Manning's Broncos. DeSean Jackson (ADP 49) could be a steal with his new home in Washington, especially considering he remains in the NFC East. LastlyI should point out that there are two names on the list that are not in the Top 36 – Gordon (WR46) and Anquan Boldin (WR47). Even if you scratch Gordon off your list because of the looming suspension. Boldin is worth a look as a value wide receiver that can be had after many lesser quality 2014 WRs go off the board.
On the flip side, we have to take a long look at the wide receivers in the Top 36 that are hard to justify their place here based on Quality Starts from last season. Emmanuel Sanders is a favorite of mine this year with him making the move to Denver and Peyton Manning. Marques Colston will not have to compete with Darren Sproles or Lance Moore for targets from Drew Brees, which makes him a candidate to get back into positive territory this year. That brings up an important point, which is that all of this is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.