There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2013 season, I decided to take the #12 TE for the year (Jared Cook, 148.1 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking TE12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th TE should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a tight end has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of TE performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th TE average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a TE Quality Start.
Using the TE Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
TE Start Type | Fantasy Points |
---|---|
Bad Start | 0 to 6.9 |
Quality Start | 7.0 to 11.5 |
Excellent Start | 11.6+ |
Table 1: 2013 TE Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - PPR Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 36 TEs and how many of each type for each:
Tight End | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jimmy Graham | NOS | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
Julius Thomas | DEN | 10 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
Vernon Davis | SFO | 9 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
Jordan Cameron | CLE | 8 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
Jason Witten | DAL | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
Greg Olsen | CAR | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
Charles Clay | MIA | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
Antonio Gates | SDC | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
Martellus Bennett | CHI | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
Delanie Walker | TEN | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
Jared Cook | STL | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 |
Tim Wright | TBB | 6 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
Coby Fleener | IND | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
Garrett Graham | HOU | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
Scott Chandler | BUF | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
Heath Miller | PIT | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
Brandon Myers | NYG | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
Rob Gronkowski | NEP | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Brent Celek | PHI | 6 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
Jordan Reed | WAS | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
Zach Ertz | PHI | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
Mychal Rivera | OAK | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
Zach Miller | SEA | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
Tyler Eifert | CIN | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Brandon Pettigrew | DET | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
Robert Housler | ARI | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
Jeff Cumberland | NYJ | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
Marcedes Lewis | JAC | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
Dallas Clark | BAL | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
Joseph Fauria | DET | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
Lance Kendricks | STL | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 |
Kellen Winslow | NYJ | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
Andrew Quarless | GBP | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
171 | 124 | 186 |
Table 2: 2013 TE Start Types Sorted By Top 36 TEs - PPR Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there significantly more Excellent Starts (111) than Quality Starts (111), which is a much bigger difference than in the past. The numbers in 2012 were closer with about as many Excellent Starts (165) as Quality Starts (156), and the numbers are similar to two other recent seasons (2010, 146 and 128; 2009, 143 and 119). In 2011, the numbers were closer and actually a little inverted (more Quality Starts at 147 than the 137 Excellent starts), so this tells me that there are more and more elite tight ends pushing the top of the chart higher. Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis and Julius Thomas had a combined +38 just for this group of five studs. As for Bad Starts, there were plenty of those again this year with 186, but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting tight end in this system. We want a TE that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL tight end. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY TE VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average TE performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Tight End | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total | NetVal |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jimmy Graham | NOS | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 |
Julius Thomas | DEN | 10 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 9 |
Vernon Davis | SFO | 9 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 7 |
Greg Olsen | CAR | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 |
Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 4 |
Jordan Cameron | CLE | 8 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 4 |
Rob Gronkowski | NEP | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
Jason Witten | DAL | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 |
Charles Clay | MIA | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 2 |
Antonio Gates | SDC | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 2 |
Martellus Bennett | CHI | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 |
Jordan Reed | WAS | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2 |
Delanie Walker | TEN | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Tim Wright | TBB | 6 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
Garrett Graham | HOU | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
Robert Housler | ARI | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Coby Fleener | IND | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -1 |
Heath Miller | PIT | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -1 |
Brandon Myers | NYG | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | -1 |
Marcedes Lewis | JAC | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -1 |
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -1 |
Brent Celek | PHI | 6 | 1 | 8 | 15 | -2 |
Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -2 |
Joseph Fauria | DET | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -2 |
Jared Cook | STL | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -3 |
Zach Miller | SEA | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -3 |
Dallas Clark | BAL | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -3 |
Brandon Pettigrew | DET | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -4 |
Jeff Cumberland | NYJ | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -4 |
Scott Chandler | BUF | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -5 |
Kellen Winslow | NYJ | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -5 |
Zach Ertz | PHI | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | -6 |
Mychal Rivera | OAK | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 | -6 |
Lance Kendricks | STL | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 |
Tyler Eifert | CIN | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 |
Andrew Quarless | GBP | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | -7 |
171 | 124 | 186 |
Table 3: 2013 TE Start Types Sorted By Value - PPR Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, the Top 6 tight ends blew the competition away, but you have to scratch off the now retired Tony Gonzalez. Rob Gronkowski just missed the Top 5, which is notable considering he only played in seven games. Jordan Reed also has to be looked upon with caution either due to his concussion history, but he is clearly a "high risk, high reward" tight end for this year. Lastly, Antonio Gates will be pushed by the younger Ladarius Green.
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top TEs on the 2014 ADP list.
Tight End | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total | NetVal | ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jimmy Graham | NOS | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 7 |
Julius Thomas | DEN | 10 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 25 |
Vernon Davis | SFO | 9 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 59 |
Greg Olsen | CAR | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 85 |
Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 4 | Retired |
Jordan Cameron | CLE | 8 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 53 |
Rob Gronkowski | NEP | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 33 |
Jason Witten | DAL | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 66 |
Charles Clay | MIA | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 2 | TE14 |
Antonio Gates | SDC | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 2 | TE18 |
Martellus Bennett | CHI | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 117 |
Jordan Reed | WAS | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 77 |
Delanie Walker | TEN | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 0 | TE17 |
Tim Wright | TBB | 6 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 | TE28 |
Garrett Graham | HOU | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | TE23 |
Robert Housler | ARI | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | TE33+ |
Coby Fleener | IND | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -1 | TE24 |
Heath Miller | PIT | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -1 | TE16 |
Brandon Myers | NYG | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | -1 | TE33+ |
Marcedes Lewis | JAC | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -1 | TE30 |
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -1 | 94 |
Zach Ertz | PHI | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | -6 | 104 |
Dennis Pitta | BAL | INJURY | 78 | ||||
Eric Ebron | DET | ROOKIE | TE13/122 |
Table 4: 2014 Top Drafted TEs Sorted By 2013 Value - PPR Scoring
Note that Dennis Pitta (ADP of 78, TE8) does not appear on this list due to his injury last preseason, nor does highly regarded rookie Eric Ebron (ADP of 122, TE13).
Judging from last year, it would appear that Greg Olsen is the best value amongst the Top 12 TEs going off the draft board, and he appears to be the most likely leading receiver in Carolina this year. Martellus Bennett and Charles Clay are also strong values looking at the coming season. On the flip side, both Zach Ertz and Kyle Rudolph seem to be overdrafted by those who want to hope that they are going to step up their production in 2014. Ertz has high expectations as the likely top tight end in Philadelphia in his second year, while Rudolph is supposed to break out with new OC Norv Turner in Minnesota. That brings up an important point, which is that these numbers are based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.