There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2014 season, I decided to take the #12 TE for the year (Larry Donnell, 90.3 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking TE12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th TE should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a tight end has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of TE performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th TE average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a TE Quality Start.
Using the TE Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
TE Start Type | Fantasy Points |
---|---|
Bad Start | 0 to 4.2 |
Quality Start | 4.3 to 7.0 |
Excellent Start | 7.1+ |
Table 1: 2014 TE Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - Standard Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 36 TEs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Player | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total |
Rob Gronkowski | NEP | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
Antonio Gates | SDC | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
Jimmy Graham | NOS | 8 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
Greg Olsen | CAR | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
Martellus Bennett | CHI | 7 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
Coby Fleener | IND | 7 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
Julius Thomas | DEN | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
Delanie Walker | TEN | 5 | 6 | 4 | 15 |
Travis Kelce | KCC | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
Jason Witten | DAL | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 |
Heath Miller | PIT | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
Larry Donnell | NYG | 4 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
Dwayne Allen | IND | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
Zach Ertz | PHI | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
Jared Cook | STL | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
Charles Clay | MIA | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
Owen Daniels | BAL | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 |
Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 4 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
Mychal Rivera | OAK | 4 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
Scott Chandler | BUF | 6 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
Tim Wright | NEP | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
Lance Kendricks | STL | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
Niles Paul | WAS | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 |
Jordan Cameron | CLE | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
Luke Willson | SEA | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
Andrew Quarless | GBP | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
Josh Hill | NOS | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
Anthony Fasano | KCC | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
Jace Amaro | NYJ | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 |
Jordan Reed | WAS | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
John Carlson | ARI | 1 | 1 | 14 | 16 |
Jeff Cumberland | NYJ | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
Daniel Fells | NYG | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
Dion Sims | MIA | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
Brent Celek | PHI | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
Vernon Davis | SFO | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
Totals: | 151 | 87 | 244 |
Table 2: 2014 TE Start Types Sorted By Top 36 TEs - Standard Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see an incredible amount of Excellent Starts (151) with almost half of that number of Qualtiy Starts (87). Looking back at prior years, this screams that something has changed. While 2013 had similar numbers (204 Excellent Starts, 94 Quality Starts), in 2012 there was a good difference with more Excellent Starts (153) than Quality Starts (125), and the numbers are similar to 2011 (177 and 95), 2010 (148 and 96) and 2009 (141 and 87). But twice as many in 2013 and nearly that same difference in 2014? Looking at the most likely suspect - receiving touchdowns - I find the answer. In the last two seasons, tight ends caught 215 (2014) and 237 (2013) touchdowns, far more than 2012 (202), 2011 (200) or 2010 (178) in Weeks 1-17. With the boost in touchdown receptions, Excellent Starts skyrocket - especially without PPR.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting tight end in this system. We want a TE that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL tight end. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY TE VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average TE performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Player | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total | NetVal |
Rob Gronkowski | NEP | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 |
Dwayne Allen | IND | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 |
Jimmy Graham | NOS | 8 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 5 |
Martellus Bennett | CHI | 7 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 4 |
Greg Olsen | CAR | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 3 |
Travis Kelce | KCC | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 3 |
Antonio Gates | SDC | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 2 |
Julius Thomas | DEN | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
Delanie Walker | TEN | 5 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
Coby Fleener | IND | 7 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
Jason Witten | DAL | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Josh Hill | NOS | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Heath Miller | PIT | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -2 |
Scott Chandler | BUF | 6 | 0 | 8 | 14 | -2 |
Tim Wright | NEP | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -2 |
Zach Ertz | PHI | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -3 |
Jeff Cumberland | NYJ | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | -3 |
Jared Cook | STL | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | -4 |
Charles Clay | MIA | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -4 |
Anthony Fasano | KCC | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -4 |
Daniel Fells | NYG | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 |
Larry Donnell | NYG | 4 | 2 | 9 | 15 | -5 |
Owen Daniels | BAL | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -5 |
Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 4 | 2 | 9 | 15 | -5 |
Jordan Cameron | CLE | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -5 |
Jace Amaro | NYJ | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 |
Jordan Reed | WAS | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -5 |
Dion Sims | MIA | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -5 |
Lance Kendricks | STL | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 | -6 |
Luke Willson | SEA | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | -6 |
Mychal Rivera | OAK | 4 | 0 | 11 | 15 | -7 |
Andrew Quarless | GBP | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -7 |
Brent Celek | PHI | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -7 |
Niles Paul | WAS | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -9 |
Vernon Davis | SFO | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | -11 |
John Carlson | ARI | 1 | 1 | 14 | 16 | -13 |
Table 3: 2014 TE Start Types Sorted By Value - Standard Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, the Top 9 tight ends blew the competition away, as they accounted for all of the positive net value tight ends in the league (a combined +36 Net Value). Dwayne Allen had a +6 in just 10 games, while his teammate, Coby Fleener, just missed the Top 9 positions with an even ("0") Net Value. Antonio Gates has to be looked upon with a "glass half empty" view considering his pending suspension to start the season, which opens up the door for the younger Ladarius Green.
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top TEs on the 2014 ADP list.
Player | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total | NetVal | ADP |
Rob Gronkowski | NEP | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 9 |
Dwayne Allen | IND | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 117 |
Jimmy Graham | NOS | 8 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 27 |
Martellus Bennett | CHI | 7 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 69 |
Greg Olsen | CAR | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 54 |
Travis Kelce | KCC | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 48 |
Antonio Gates | SDC | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 114 |
Delanie Walker | TEN | 5 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 1 | TE13 |
Julius Thomas | DEN | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 76 |
Jason Witten | DAL | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 98 |
Josh Hill | NOS | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 113 |
Coby Fleener | IND | 7 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 | TE16 |
Heath Miller | PIT | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -2 | TE22 |
Zach Ertz | PHI | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -3 | 83 |
Charles Clay | MIA | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -4 | TE19 |
Larry Donnell | NYG | 4 | 2 | 9 | 15 | -5 | TE24 |
Owen Daniels | BAL | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -5 | TE15 |
Jordan Cameron | CLE | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 93 |
Vernon Davis | SFO | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | -11 | TE20 |
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins | TB | TE43 | TE17 | ||||
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | TE37 / Injury | TE14 | ||||
Ladarius Green | SDC | TE52 | TE23 | ||||
Tyler Eifert | CIN | Injury | TE18 | ||||
Eric Ebron | DET | TE45 | TE21 |
Table 4: 2015 Top Drafted TEs Sorted By 2014 Value - Standard Scoring
Note that Kyle Rudolph (ADP of TE 14) and Tyler Eifert (ADP of TE 18) do not appear on the earlier tables due to their injuries last season, nor do three younger tight ends with potential to be in the Top 24 this year, Eric Ebron (ADP of TE 21), Ladarius Green (ADP of TE 23) and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (ADP of TE 17).
Judging from last year, it would appear that Dwayne Allen is the best value amongst the Top 12 TEs going off the draft board, and he appears to be ready to push Coby Fleener for playing time and targets in Indianapolis once again this year. Fleener cannot be discounted either, as Andrew Luck loves to use tight ends in the passing game. Delanie Walker also looks to be a strong value for this coming season, if Tennessee can get their new passing game going. On the flip side, both Zach Ertz and Jordan Cameron seem to be overdrafted by those who want to hope that they are going to step up their production in 2015. Ertz has high expectations as the likely top tight end in Philadelphia in his third year, while Cameron is supposed to help the Miami offense to break out and compete in the AFC East. That brings up an important point, which is that these numbers are based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.