There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2013 season, I decided to take the #12 TE for the year (Delanie Walker, 95.1 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking TE12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th TE should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a tight end has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of TE performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th TE average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a TE Quality Start.
Using the TE Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
TE Start Type | Fantasy Points |
---|---|
Bad Start | 0 to 4.4 |
Quality Start | 4.5 to 7.4 |
Excellent Start | 7.5+ |
Table 1: 2013 TE Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - Standard Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 36 TEs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Tight End | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jimmy Graham | NOS | 13 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
Vernon Davis | SFO | 12 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
Julius Thomas | DEN | 11 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 10 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
Jason Witten | DAL | 7 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
Jordan Cameron | CLE | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
Charles Clay | MIA | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
Greg Olsen | CAR | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
Antonio Gates | SDC | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
Martellus Bennett | CHI | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
Jared Cook | STL | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 |
Delanie Walker | TEN | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
Coby Fleener | IND | 7 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
Tim Wright | TBB | 8 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
Brent Celek | PHI | 7 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
Rob Gronkowski | NEP | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
Garrett Graham | HOU | 6 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
Brandon Myers | NYG | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
Scott Chandler | BUF | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 |
Zach Ertz | PHI | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
Zach Miller | SEA | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
Jordan Reed | WAS | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
Ladarius Green | SDC | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
Mychal Rivera | OAK | 5 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
Jeff Cumberland | NYJ | 5 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
Joseph Fauria | DET | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
Heath Miller | PIT | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 |
Tyler Eifert | CIN | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
Marcedes Lewis | JAC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
Dallas Clark | BAL | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
Brandon Pettigrew | DET | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
Robert Housler | ARI | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
Kellen Winslow | NYJ | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
Lance Kendricks | STL | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
204 | 93 | 218 |
Table 2: 2013 TE Start Types Sorted By Top 36 TEs - Standard Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see an incredible amount of Excellent Starts (204) with less than half of that number of Qualtiy Starts (94). Looking back at prior years, this screams that something has changed. In 2012, there was a good difference with more Excellent Starts (153) than Quality Starts (125), and the numbers are similar to 2011 (177 and 95), 2010 (148 and 96) and 2009 (141 and 87). But twice as many? Looking at the most likely suspect - receiving touchdowns - I find the answer. In 2013, tight ends caught 237 touchdowns, far more than 2012 (202), 2011 (200) or 2010 (190). With a 17% boost in touchdown receptions, Excellent Starts skyrocket - especially without PPR.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting tight end in this system. We want a TE that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL tight end. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY TE VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average TE performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Tight End | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total | NetVal |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jimmy Graham | NOS | 13 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 12 |
Vernon Davis | SFO | 12 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 |
Julius Thomas | DEN | 11 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 |
Greg Olsen | CAR | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 6 |
Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 10 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 4 |
Rob Gronkowski | NEP | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 |
Jordan Reed | WAS | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 3 |
Jordan Cameron | CLE | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 2 |
Tim Wright | TBB | 8 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 2 |
Marcedes Lewis | JAC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
Jason Witten | DAL | 7 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
Charles Clay | MIA | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
Antonio Gates | SDC | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
Martellus Bennett | CHI | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
Coby Fleener | IND | 7 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
Garrett Graham | HOU | 6 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Brent Celek | PHI | 7 | 1 | 8 | 16 | -1 |
Ladarius Green | SDC | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | -1 |
Joseph Fauria | DET | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -1 |
Delanie Walker | TEN | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -2 |
Brandon Myers | NYG | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14 | -2 |
Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -2 |
Jeff Cumberland | NYJ | 5 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -2 |
Jared Cook | STL | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -3 |
Zach Miller | SEA | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -3 |
Dallas Clark | BAL | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -3 |
Robert Housler | ARI | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -3 |
Heath Miller | PIT | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -5 |
Tyler Eifert | CIN | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -5 |
Brandon Pettigrew | DET | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -5 |
Kellen Winslow | NYJ | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 |
Zach Ertz | PHI | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 | -6 |
Mychal Rivera | OAK | 5 | 0 | 11 | 16 | -6 |
Lance Kendricks | STL | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 |
Scott Chandler | BUF | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 |
204 | 93 | 218 |
Table 3: 2013 TE Start Types Sorted By Value - Standard Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, the Top 6 tight ends blew the competition away, but you have to scratch off the now retired Tony Gonzalez. Rob Gronkowski just missed the Top 4, which is notable considering he only played in seven games. Jordan Reed also has to be looked upon with caution either due to his concussion history, but he is clearly a "high risk, high reward" tight end for this year. Lastly, Tim Wright will be pushed by both Brandon Myers and rookie Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top TEs on the 2014 ADP list.
Tight End | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total | NetVal | ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jimmy Graham | NOS | 13 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 7 |
Vernon Davis | SFO | 12 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 54 |
Julius Thomas | DEN | 11 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 29 |
Greg Olsen | CAR | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 85 |
Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 10 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 4 | Retired |
Rob Gronkowski | NEP | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 30 |
Jordan Reed | WAS | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 83 |
Jordan Cameron | CLE | 8 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 63 |
Tim Wright | TBB | 8 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 2 | TE26 |
Marcedes Lewis | JAC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 2 | TE31 |
Jason Witten | DAL | 7 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 69 |
Charles Clay | MIA | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0 | TE13 |
Antonio Gates | SDC | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 | TE17 |
Martellus Bennett | CHI | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 127 |
Coby Fleener | IND | 7 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 | TE24 |
Garrett Graham | HOU | 6 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 | TE23 |
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 96 |
Brent Celek | PHI | 7 | 1 | 8 | 16 | -1 | TE33+ |
Ladarius Green | SDC | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | -1 | TE14 |
Joseph Fauria | DET | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -1 | TE33+ |
Zach Ertz | PHI | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 120 |
Dennis Pitta | BAL | INJURY | 86 | ||||
Eric Ebron | DET | ROOKIE | TE15 |
Table 4: 2014 Top Drafted TEs Sorted By 2013 Value - Standard Scoring
Note that Dennis Pitta (ADP of 86, TE9) does not appear on this list due to his injury last preseason, nor does highly regarded rookie Eric Ebron (ADP of 127, TE14).
Judging from last year, it would appear that Greg Olsen is the best value amongst the Top 12 TEs going off the draft board, and he appears to be the most likely leading receiver in Carolina this year. Jordan Reed is a close second, but once again the injury risk looms with his concussion history. Martellus Bennett and Charles Clay are also strong values looking at the coming season. On the flip side, both Zach Ertz and Kyle Rudolph seem to be overdrafted by those who want to hope that they are going to step up their production in 2014. Ertz has high expectations as the likely top tight end in Philadelphia in his second year, while Rudolph is supposed to break out with new OC Norv Turner in Minnesota. That brings up an important point, which is that these numbers are based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.