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There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2014 season, I decided to take the #12 RB for the year (LeSean McCoy, 205.6 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking RB12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th RB should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a RB1 and a great RB2.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a running back has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of RB performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th RB average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a RB Quality Start.
Using the RB Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
RB Start Type | Fantasy Points |
Bad Start | 0 to 9.6 |
Quality Start | 9.7 to 16.0 |
Excellent Start | 16.1+ |
Table 1: 2014 RB Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - PPR Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 50 RBs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Player | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total |
Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 11 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 14 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 9 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
Justin Forsett | BAL | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
Jeremy Hill | CIN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
C.J. Anderson | DEN | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
Joique Bell | DET | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
Matt Asiata | MIN | 5 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
Mark Ingram | NOS | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 6 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 4 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
Ahmad Bradshaw | IND | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
Darren Sproles | PHI | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
Branden Oliver | SDC | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
Andre Williams | NYG | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 |
Rashad Jennings | NYG | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
Tre Mason | STL | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 |
Roy Helu | WAS | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
Benny Cunningham | STL | 1 | 5 | 10 | 16 |
Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 0 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 5 | 9 | 15 |
Knile Davis | KCC | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
Chris Johnson | NYJ | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 |
Denard Robinson | JAC | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
Bobby Rainey | TBB | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
Terrance West | CLE | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
Reggie Bush | DET | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
Ronnie Hillman | DEN | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
Bishop Sankey | TEN | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
Alfred Blue | HOU | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 |
Jerick McKinnon | MIN | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 |
Theo Riddick | DET | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
Devonta Freeman | ATL | 1 | 1 | 14 | 16 |
Latavius Murray | OAK | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
Totals | 193 | 196 | 316 |
Table 2: 2014 RB Start Types Sorted By Top 50 RBs - PPR Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are not quite as many Excellent Starts (193) as Quality Starts (196), but given some injuries and more committee backfields it does make sense that there would be fewer elite performances. In comparison to the last five seasons, the numbers are not too far apart (2009: 183 Excellent Starts, 229 Quality Starts, 2010 was 146 and 218, 2011 was 183 and 199, 2012 was 170 and 218, and lastly 2013 was 172 and 206). There were a lot of Bad Starts in 2014 (316), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The interesting part in 2010 was the sharp dip in Excellent Starts with only 146 total, or less than 10 per week. That seems to be related to the higher threshold for excellence in 2010, as it took over 19.2 points that year to qualify while it was just 17.5 or more in 2009 and a similar total of 17.6 or more points in 2011, 17.2 in 2012, 17.8 in 2013 and just 16.1 or more last season.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting running back in this system. We want a RB that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL running back. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY RB VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average RB performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Player | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | NetVal |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 14 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 14 |
Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 11 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 11 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 9 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 7 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 9 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 5 |
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 3 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 3 |
Mark Ingram | NOS | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 4 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 3 |
Ahmad Bradshaw | IND | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 3 |
Justin Forsett | BAL | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 2 |
C.J. Anderson | DEN | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 2 |
Jeremy Hill | CIN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 6 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Joique Bell | DET | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -1 |
Rashad Jennings | NYG | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -1 |
Ronnie Hillman | DEN | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -1 |
Matt Asiata | MIN | 5 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -2 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -4 |
Bobby Rainey | TBB | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -4 |
Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -5 |
Branden Oliver | SDC | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -5 |
Tre Mason | STL | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -5 |
Roy Helu | WAS | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -5 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 |
Denard Robinson | JAC | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -5 |
Reggie Bush | DET | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -5 |
Jerick McKinnon | MIN | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 |
Latavius Murray | OAK | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -5 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -6 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -6 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -6 |
Darren Sproles | PHI | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 |
Andre Williams | NYG | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 | -6 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -6 |
Terrance West | CLE | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 |
Theo Riddick | DET | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -6 |
Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 |
Knile Davis | KCC | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 | -7 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -8 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -8 |
Benny Cunningham | STL | 1 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -9 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 0 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -9 |
Chris Johnson | NYJ | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -10 |
Alfred Blue | HOU | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | -11 |
Bishop Sankey | TEN | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -12 |
Devonta Freeman | ATL | 1 | 1 | 14 | 16 | -13 |
Totals | 193 | 196 | 316 |
Table 3: 2014 RB Start Types Sorted By Value - PPR Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, the Top 5-7 names should come as no surprise as they are considered top backs in the NFL and fantasy right now. After that group, however, we have an interesting mixture of newcomers, veterans and players that are likely not to repeat such good numbers as last year. Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram and C.J. Anderson showed that they were strong contributors last year, as was Justin Forsett. Giovani Bernard appears again this year, but so does his backfield parter, Jeremy Hill. If Andre Ellington returns to his form from early last year, he could also provide a great spark to any fantasy team.
Much more can be learned by looking at the players in the negative value range. Alfred Morris and Jonathan Stewart are very likely to be overdrafted in PPR leagues this year. Frank Gore is one veteran to take note of, as his numbers could change drastically in Indianapolis. Some players were hampered by committee situations or injury, so if a player like Reggie Bush (SF) or Shane Vereen (NYG) gets significant work in 2014, their value would be much higher this season. As I mentioned last year, backs that have changed teams and that could lead their respective running attacks - those backs should be more valuable this season.
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 RBs on the 2014 ADP list.
Player | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | NetVal | ADP |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 14 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 14 | 17 |
Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 11 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 11 | 1 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 12 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 10 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 7 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 9 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 2 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 4 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 44 |
Mark Ingram | NOS | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 35 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 33 |
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 3 |
Justin Forsett | BAL | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 28 |
C.J. Anderson | DEN | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 14 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 6 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 60 |
Jeremy Hill | CIN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 16 |
Rashad Jennings | NYG | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -1 | 72 |
Joique Bell | DET | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -1 | 58 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -4 | 34 |
Tre Mason | STL | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -5 | 89 |
Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -5 | 46 |
Latavius Murray | OAK | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 42 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -6 | 95 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -6 | 85 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -6 | 36 |
Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 77 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -8 | 69 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 0 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -9 | 87 |
Adrian Peterson | MIN |
Suspension
|
4 | ||||
Melvin Gordon | SDC |
Rookie
|
29 | ||||
Carlos Hyde | SF |
New Starter
|
38 | ||||
Todd Gurley | STL |
Rookie
|
43 | ||||
T.J. Yeldon | JAX |
Rookie
|
48 | ||||
C.J. Spiller | NO |
New Team
|
56 | ||||
Joseph Randle | DAL |
New Starter
|
59 | ||||
Tevin Coleman | ATL |
Rookie
|
67 | ||||
Ameer Abdullah | DET |
Rookie
|
71 |
Table 4: 2015 Top Drafted RBs Sorted By 2014 Value - PPR Scoring
This season looks a lot like 2013, when a record number of players (10) were in the Top 36 this year that are not amongst the Top 50 RBs. This season is very close with nine names out of 36 (25%), so this season could see a lot of churn in this chart for next year. Five rookies (Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, T.J. Yeldon, Tevin Coleman and Ameer Abdullah) are all being drafted in the Top 36, as fantasy players are seeking major upside from this draft class. A few old names also make the list that were mostly absent in 2014, led by Adrian Peterson (suspension). Questions surround players on new teams, starting right at the top with DeMarco Murray in Philadelphia, who is no longer considered a first round pick. He could represent solid value if he gets the touchdowns like he did in Dallas, a distinct possibility in Chip Kelly's offense. As mentioned earlier, both Bernard and Ellington could be strong value picks if they round back into 2014 form.
With so much turmoil at tailback, it is important to point out that this value list is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.