There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2013 season, I decided to take the #12 RB for the year (Danny Woodhead, 227.4 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking RB12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th RB should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a RB1 and a great RB2.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a running back has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of RB performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th RB average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a RB Quality Start.
Using the RB Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
RB Start Type | Fantasy Points |
---|---|
Bad Start | 0 to 10.6 |
Quality Start | 10.7 to 17.7 |
Excellent Start | 17.8+ |
Table 1: 2013 RB Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - PPR Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 50 RBs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Running Back | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14 |
Reggie Bush | DET | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 7 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
Chris Johnson | TEN | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
Adrian Peterson | MIN | 7 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 |
Danny Woodhead | SDC | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
Joique Bell | DET | 6 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
Le\'Veon Bell | PIT | 6 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
Ryan Mathews | SDC | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
Maurice Jones-Drew | JAC | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 1 | 9 | 6 | 16 |
Zac Stacy | STL | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
Ray Rice | BAL | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 |
Darren Sproles | NOS | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 |
Rashad Jennings | OAK | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
DeAngelo Williams | CAR | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
C.J. Spiller | BUF | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Donald Brown | IND | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Rashard Mendenhall | ARI | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 |
Ben Tate | HOU | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 |
Jacquizz Rodgers | ATL | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
Bilal Powell | NYJ | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
Stevan Ridley | NEP | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
Mike Tolbert | CAR | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
BenJarvus Green-Ellis | CIN | 0 | 3 | 13 | 16 |
Chris Ogbonnaya | CLE | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
Dexter McCluster | KCC | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
Montee Ball | DEN | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
Bobby Rainey | TBB | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
Marcel Reece | OAK | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
Roy Helu | WAS | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
Andre Brown | NYG | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
172 | 206 | 349 |
Table 2: 2013 RB Start Types Sorted By Top 50 RBs - PPR Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are not quite as many Excellent Starts (172) as Quality Starts (206), but given some injuries and more committee backfields it does make sense that there would be fewer elite performances. In comparison to the last five seasons, the numbers are not too far apart (2008: 221 Excellent Starts, 210 Quality Starts; 2009 was 183 and 229, 2010 was 146 and 218, 2011 was 183 and 199, and 2012 was 170 and 218). There were a lot of Bad Starts in 2013 (349), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The interesting part in 2010 was the sharp dip in Excellent Starts with only 146 total, or less than 10 per week. That seems to be related to the higher threshold for excellence in 2010, as it took over 19.2 points that year to qualify while it was just 17.5 or more in 2009 and a similar total of 17.6 or more points in 2011, 17.2 in 2012 and 17.8 or more last season.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting running back in this system. We want a RB that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL running back. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY RB VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average RB performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Running Back | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | NetVal |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 5 |
Le\'Veon Bell | PIT | 6 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 5 |
Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 4 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 7 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 4 |
Reggie Bush | DET | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 3 |
Adrian Peterson | MIN | 7 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 3 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 |
Chris Johnson | TEN | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Danny Woodhead | SDC | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Zac Stacy | STL | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Andre Brown | NYG | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Joique Bell | DET | 6 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -2 |
Ryan Mathews | SDC | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -2 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -3 |
Maurice Jones-Drew | JAC | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -3 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -3 |
Ray Rice | BAL | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -4 |
Rashad Jennings | OAK | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | -4 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -4 |
Bobby Rainey | TBB | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -5 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 1 | 9 | 6 | 16 | -5 |
Darren Sproles | NOS | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -6 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 |
DeAngelo Williams | CAR | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 |
C.J. Spiller | BUF | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 |
Donald Brown | IND | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 |
Stevan Ridley | NEP | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -7 |
Ben Tate | HOU | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -8 |
Jacquizz Rodgers | ATL | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -8 |
Dexter McCluster | KCC | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -8 |
Rashard Mendenhall | ARI | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -9 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -9 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -10 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 2 | 12 | 16 | -10 |
Montee Ball | DEN | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -10 |
Bilal Powell | NYJ | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -11 |
Mike Tolbert | CAR | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -11 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -12 |
Chris Ogbonnaya | CLE | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -12 |
Marcel Reece | OAK | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -12 |
Roy Helu | WAS | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -12 |
BenJarvus Green-Ellis | CIN | 0 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -13 |
172 | 206 | 349 |
Table 3: 2013 RB Start Types Sorted By Value - PPR Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, the Top 10-12 names should come as no surprise except for perhaps the two newcomers, Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard. Those two names are important to note since there is another new name in the Top 36 ADP list for running backs this year, Bishop Sankey. If he hits like either Lacy or Bernard, he could represent quite the value. Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy are atop the list in part because they had just one or two bad starts each, but it is interesting to note that LeVeon Bell had just one while DeMarco Murray had none – so both could represent great draft value for 2014.
Much more can be learned by looking at the players in the negative value range. Steven Jackson is clearly wearing down as he moved closer to the end of his career. Ryan Mathews, Frank Gore and Maurice Jones-Drew posted quality scores most of the time, but with each of them twice as likely to post a bad score as an excellent one plus all three facing challenges for touches in 2014, I would tend to look elsewhere for value picks. Rashad Jennings and Toby Gerhart have both changed teams and should lead their respective running attacks - those backs should be more valuable this season.
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 RBs on the 2013 ADP list.
Running Back | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | NetVal | ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 1 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 5 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 13 |
Le\'Veon Bell | PIT | 6 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 16 |
Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 100 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 7 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 8 |
Reggie Bush | DET | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 32 |
Adrian Peterson | MIN | 7 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 4 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 18 |
Chris Johnson | TEN | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 56 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 14 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 38 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 97 |
Danny Woodhead | SDC | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 90 |
Zac Stacy | STL | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 27 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
Joique Bell | DET | 6 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -2 | 52 |
Ryan Mathews | SDC | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -2 | 46 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -3 | 69 |
Maurice Jones-Drew | JAC | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -3 | 92 |
Ray Rice | BAL | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -4 | 60 |
Rashad Jennings | OAK | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | -4 | 58 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 80 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -5 | 65 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 1 | 9 | 6 | 16 | -5 | 35 |
Darren Sproles | NOS | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -6 | 89 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 31 |
C.J. Spiller | BUF | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 | 30 |
Stevan Ridley | NEP | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 76 |
Ben Tate | HOU | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -8 | 64 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -10 | 57 |
Montee Ball | DEN | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -10 | 15 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -12 | 93 |
Doug Martin | TB |
Injury
|
22 | ||||
Toby Gerhart | JAX |
New Team
|
44 |
Table 4: 2014 Top Drafted RBs Sorted By 2013 Value - PPR Scoring
Unlike last year, where a record number of players (10) were in the Top 36 this year that are not amongst the Top 50 RBs, this season looks to be a lot of the same names and faces - but in some different cities this year for a choice few. I have already mentioned both Jennings and Gerhart, who both could be value picks with new teams. Two other names to specifically mention are Doug Martin, who missed time due to injury, and rookie Bishop Sankey, who could be leading the Tennessee run game as soon as Week 1.
Judging from 2013, it seems that changes in Denver and Miami are going to greatly impact the results and expectations. Knowshon Moreno was the back to own in 2012 for Broncos fans, but with Moreno now in Miami, his value has plummeted. Much more is expected from Montee Ball, who will take over Moreno's role for Denver this year - thus his lofty ADP. Only a rapidly-aging Fred Jackson and also Danny Woodhead are positive players with ADPs well above 60. With so much turmoil at tailback, it is important to point out that this value list is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.