There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2014 season, I decided to take the #12 RB for the year (LeSean McCoy, 171.4 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking RB12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th RB should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a RB1 and a great RB2.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a running back has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of RB performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th RB average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a RB Quality Start.
Using the RB Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
RB Start Type | Fantasy Points |
Bad Start | 0 to 8.0 |
Quality Start | 8.1 to 13.3 |
Excellent Start | 13.4+ |
Table 1: 2014 RB Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - Standard Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 50 RBs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Player | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 13 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 8 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 9 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
Justin Forsett | BAL | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 4 | 8 | 4 | 16 |
Jeremy Hill | CIN | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
C.J. Anderson | DEN | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
Joique Bell | DET | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
Mark Ingram | NOS | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 |
Matt Asiata | MIN | 5 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
Andre Williams | NYG | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 1 | 7 | 6 | 14 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 |
Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
Tre Mason | STL | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
Ahmad Bradshaw | IND | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Branden Oliver | SDC | 3 | 1 | 10 | 14 |
Rashad Jennings | NYG | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
Darren Sproles | PHI | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
Terrance West | CLE | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
Knile Davis | KCC | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
Chris Johnson | NYJ | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
Denard Robinson | JAC | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 |
Roy Helu | WAS | 0 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 0 | 3 | 13 | 16 |
Alfred Blue | HOU | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
Ronnie Hillman | DEN | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
Benny Cunningham | STL | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 |
Bishop Sankey | TEN | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 |
Bobby Rainey | TBB | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 |
Jonas Gray | NEP | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
Latavius Murray | OAK | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
Doug Martin | TBB | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Jerick McKinnon | MIN | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 |
Ben Tate | PIT | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
Total | 178 | 167 | 346 |
Table 2: 2014 RB Start Types Sorted By Top 50 RBs - Standard Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are more Excellent Starts (178) than Quality Starts (167), a testament to how dominant the top backs were last season, and how they were able to escape injury. In previous years, Quality Starts and Excellent Starts were nearly equal, and often Excellent Starts were fewer thanks to the proliferation of committee backfields throughout the league. The interesting trend is that the threhsold for an Excellent Start is getting lower, as it took only 13.4 points to achieve that level last year, lower than 2011 (14.1) when there was a recent peak in Excellent Starts with 197. Both last season (178) and 2013 (178) had over 11 Excellent Starts per week, far more than 2012 (153) and 2010 (154). That points back to the higher thresholds in those respective seasons as it took over 15 points for an Excellent Start in 2012 and 15.3 in 2010. While in the big picture it may not matter – we do want RB12s and higher, regardless – but it does show how much RB value has declined with the passing game taking off in today's NFL, and how important true feature tailbacks are.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting running back in this system. We want a RB that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL running back. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY RB VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average RB performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Player | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | NetVal |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 13 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 13 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 8 |
Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 8 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 7 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 9 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 6 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 6 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 4 |
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 3 |
Justin Forsett | BAL | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 3 |
C.J. Anderson | DEN | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
Mark Ingram | NOS | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 2 |
Ahmad Bradshaw | IND | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 4 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
Jeremy Hill | CIN | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -1 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -1 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -1 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -1 |
Ronnie Hillman | DEN | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -1 |
Joique Bell | DET | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -2 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -2 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16 | -3 |
Tre Mason | STL | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -3 |
Rashad Jennings | NYG | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -3 |
Matt Asiata | MIN | 5 | 1 | 9 | 15 | -4 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -5 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 1 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -5 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -5 |
Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -5 |
Terrance West | CLE | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -5 |
Jonas Gray | NEP | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -5 |
Latavius Murray | OAK | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -5 |
Ben Tate | PIT | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -5 |
Andre Williams | NYG | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 | -6 |
Knile Davis | KCC | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | -6 |
Denard Robinson | JAC | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | -6 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -6 |
Jerick McKinnon | MIN | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -6 |
Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 |
Branden Oliver | SDC | 3 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -7 |
Darren Sproles | PHI | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -7 |
Doug Martin | TBB | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -7 |
Roy Helu | WAS | 0 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -8 |
Bobby Rainey | TBB | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -8 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 | -9 |
Alfred Blue | HOU | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -9 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -10 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -11 |
Chris Johnson | NYJ | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -11 |
Benny Cunningham | STL | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -11 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 0 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -13 |
Bishop Sankey | TEN | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 | -13 |
Table 3: 2014 RB Start Types Sorted By Value - Standard Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, the Top 10-12 names should come as no surprise except for perhaps the one newcomer, Eddie Lacy. A rookie making it to Top 12 status is important to note since there is another new name in the Top 36 ADP list for running backs this year, Bishop Sankey. If he hits like Eddie Lacy, he could represent quite the value. Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy are atop the list in part because they had just one or two bad starts each, but it is interesting to note that LeVeon Bell and Eddie Lacy also had just two bad starts as well – so both could represent great draft value for 2014.
Much more can be learned by looking at the players in the negative value range. Steven Jackson is clearly wearing down as he moved closer to the end of his career. Frank Gore and Maurice Jones-Drew both posted quality scores most of the time, but with each of them were more likely to post a bad score as an excellent one plus both backs RBs facing challenges for touches in 2014, I would tend to look elsewhere for value picks. Rashad Jennings and Toby Gerhart have both changed teams and should lead their respective running attacks - those backs should be more valuable this season.
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, the Top 6 names should come as no surprise as they are considered top backs in the NFL and fantasy right now. After that group, however, we have an interesting mixture of newcomers, veterans and players that are likely not to repeat such good numbers as last year. Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram and C.J. Anderson showed that they were strong contributors last year, as was Justin Forsett. Giovani Bernard is just in the negatve area, as is his backfield parter, Jeremy Hill - which points out both how good these two backs are and how much the shared backfield hurts both of their respective values.
Much more can be learned by looking at the players in the negative value range. Alfred Morris is right there as quality starter in standard scoring, posting six Excellent Starts for Washington even in a bad season for that franchise. Frank Gore is one veteran to take note of, as his numbers could change drastically in Indianapolis. As I mentioned last year, backs that have changed teams like Gore could represent great value in switching teams. The values of DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy will also drastically depend on how their new teams utilize them in their respective backfields in 2015..
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 RBs on the 2014 ADP list.
Player | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | NetVal | ADP |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 13 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 13 | 17 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 8 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 2 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 9 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 6 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 12 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 3 |
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 8 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 1 |
Justin Forsett | BAL | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 28 |
C.J. Anderson | DEN | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
Mark Ingram | NOS | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 35 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 4 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 34 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -1 | 16 |
Jeremy Hill | CIN | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -1 | 21 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -1 | 33 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -1 | 60 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -2 | 45 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16 | -3 | 36 |
Rashad Jennings | NYG | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 72 |
Latavius Murray | OAK | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 42 |
Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -5 | 44 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -5 | 90 |
Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 | 71 |
Doug Martin | TBB | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -7 | 85 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 | -9 | 68 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -11 | 84 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 0 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -13 | 87 |
Adrian Peterson | MIN |
Suspension
|
4 | ||||
Melvin Gordon | SDC |
Rookie
|
30 | ||||
Carlos Hyde | SF |
New Starter
|
38 | ||||
Todd Gurley | STL |
Rookie
|
43 | ||||
T.J. Yeldon | JAX |
Rookie
|
51 | ||||
C.J. Spiller | NO |
New Team
|
58 | ||||
Joseph Randle | DAL |
New Starter
|
57 | ||||
Tevin Coleman | ATL |
Rookie
|
67 | ||||
Ameer Abdullah | DET |
Rookie
|
75 |
Table 4: 2015 Top Drafted RBs Sorted By 2014 Value - Standard Scoring
This season looks a lot like 2013, when a record number of players (10) were in the Top 36 this year that are not amongst the Top 50 RBs. This season is very close with nine names out of 36 (25%), so this season could see a lot of churn in this chart for next year. Five rookies (Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, T.J. Yeldon, Tevin Coleman and Ameer Abdullah) are all being drafted in the Top 36, as fantasy players are seeking major upside from this draft class. A few old names also make the list that were mostly absent in 2014, led by Adrian Peterson (suspension). Questions surround players on new teams, starting right at the top with DeMarco Murray in Philadelphia, who is no longer considered a first round pick. He could represent solid value if he gets the touchdowns like he did in Dallas, a distinct possibility in Chip Kelly's offense. Justin Forsett could be a steal in the third round, as could Lamar Miller if they continue to produce like last year.
With so much turmoil at tailback, it is important to point out that this value list is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.