There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2013 season, I decided to take the #12 RB for the year (Ryan Mathews, 185.4 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking RB12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th RB should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a RB1 and a great RB2.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a running back has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of RB performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th RB average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a RB Quality Start.
Using the RB Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
RB Start Type | Fantasy Points |
---|---|
Bad Start | 0 to 8.6 |
Quality Start | 8.7 to 14.4 |
Excellent Start | 14.5+ |
Table 1: 2013 RB Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - Standard Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 50 RBs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Running Back | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 7 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
Adrian Peterson | MIN | 7 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
Chris Johnson | TEN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
Reggie Bush | DET | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
Ryan Mathews | SDC | 5 | 7 | 4 | 16 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
Le\'Veon Bell | PIT | 6 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 |
Joique Bell | DET | 6 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 6 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
Zac Stacy | STL | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
Danny Woodhead | SDC | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 |
Maurice Jones-Drew | JAC | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
Rashad Jennings | OAK | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
DeAngelo Williams | CAR | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
Donald Brown | IND | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
Rashard Mendenhall | ARI | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
C.J. Spiller | BUF | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Ray Rice | BAL | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
Darren Sproles | NOS | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
BenJarvus Green-Ellis | CIN | 1 | 5 | 10 | 16 |
Stevan Ridley | NEP | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
Ben Tate | HOU | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 |
Dexter McCluster | KCC | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 |
Bilal Powell | NYJ | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
Jacquizz Rodgers | ATL | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
Bobby Rainey | TBB | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
Mike Tolbert | CAR | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 |
Montee Ball | DEN | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
Daniel Thomas | MIA | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
James Starks | GBP | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
Marcel Reece | OAK | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 |
Jordan Todman | JAC | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 |
178 | 183 | 368 |
Table 2: 2013 RB Start Types Sorted By Top 50 RBs - Standard Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are not quite as many Excellent Starts (178) as Quality Starts (183), but given some injuries and more committee backfields it does make sense that there would be fewer elite performances. The interesting part is that the number of Excellent Starts is the highest since 2011 (197), but easily explained. In 2011, it only took 14.1 fantasy points to achieve the Excellent start threshold - slightly lower than 2013's 14.5 number. In comparison to those seasons, the numbers of Excellent Starts in 2012 (153), 2009 (173) and 2010 (154) correlate well to the elite thresholds to achieve an Excellent start in each of those seasons - higher scores were needed in 2012 (15.0+), 2009 (15.3+) and 2010 (16.0+). While in the big picture it may not matter – we do want RB12s and higher, regardless – but it does show how much RB value has declined with the passing game taking off in today's NFL.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting running back in this system. We want a RB that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL running back. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY RB VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average RB performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Running Back | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | NetVal |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 7 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 5 |
Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 4 |
Le\'Veon Bell | PIT | 6 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 4 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 3 |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 3 |
Adrian Peterson | MIN | 7 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 2 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 2 |
Reggie Bush | DET | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 2 |
Chris Johnson | TEN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
Ryan Mathews | SDC | 5 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Zac Stacy | STL | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -1 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -1 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -2 |
Joique Bell | DET | 6 | 1 | 9 | 16 | -3 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 6 | 1 | 9 | 16 | -3 |
Rashad Jennings | OAK | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -3 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -4 |
Darren McFadden | OAK | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -5 |
Danny Woodhead | SDC | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -6 |
Maurice Jones-Drew | JAC | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -6 |
DeAngelo Williams | CAR | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -6 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 |
Stevan Ridley | NEP | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -6 |
Rashard Mendenhall | ARI | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 |
C.J. Spiller | BUF | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 |
Dexter McCluster | KCC | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 | -7 |
Bobby Rainey | TBB | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | -7 |
James Starks | GBP | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -7 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -8 |
LeGarrette Blount | NEP | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -8 |
Donald Brown | IND | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -8 |
Ben Tate | HOU | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -8 |
Jacquizz Rodgers | ATL | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -8 |
Chris Ivory | NYJ | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -8 |
Daniel Thomas | MIA | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -8 |
Ray Rice | BAL | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -9 |
Darren Sproles | NOS | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -9 |
BenJarvus Green-Ellis | CIN | 1 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -9 |
Montee Ball | DEN | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -9 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -10 |
Mike Tolbert | CAR | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -10 |
Marcel Reece | OAK | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | -11 |
Jordan Todman | JAC | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | -11 |
Bilal Powell | NYJ | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -12 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -12 |
178 | 183 | 368 |
Table 3: 2013 RB Start Types Sorted By Value - Standard Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, the Top 10-12 names should come as no surprise except for perhaps the one newcomer, Eddie Lacy. A rookie making it to Top 12 status is important to note since there is another new name in the Top 36 ADP list for running backs this year, Bishop Sankey. If he hits like Eddie Lacy, he could represent quite the value. Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy are atop the list in part because they had just one or two bad starts each, but it is interesting to note that LeVeon Bell and Eddie Lacy also had just two bad starts as well – so both could represent great draft value for 2014.
Much more can be learned by looking at the players in the negative value range. Steven Jackson is clearly wearing down as he moved closer to the end of his career. Frank Gore and Maurice Jones-Drew both posted quality scores most of the time, but with each of them were more likely to post a bad score as an excellent one plus both backs RBs facing challenges for touches in 2014, I would tend to look elsewhere for value picks. Rashad Jennings and Toby Gerhart have both changed teams and should lead their respective running attacks - those backs should be more valuable this season.
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 RBs on the 2013 ADP list.
Running Back | Team | Excellent | Quality | Bad | Total | NetVal | ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jamaal Charles | KCC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 1 |
LeSean McCoy | PHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 |
Matt Forte | CHI | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 5 |
Eddie Lacy | GBP | 7 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 6 |
Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 89 |
Le\'Veon Bell | PIT | 6 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 14 |
Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 11 |
DeMarco Murray | DAL | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 13 |
Adrian Peterson | MIN | 7 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 3 |
Fred Jackson | BUF | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 92 |
Reggie Bush | DET | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 33 |
Chris Johnson | TEN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 52 |
Ryan Mathews | SDC | 5 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 39 |
Arian Foster | HOU | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
Zac Stacy | STL | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 25 |
Frank Gore | SFO | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -1 | 58 |
Shane Vereen | NEP | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -1 | 47 |
Alfred Morris | WAS | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -2 | 28 |
Joique Bell | DET | 6 | 1 | 9 | 16 | -3 | 59 |
Giovani Bernard | CIN | 6 | 1 | 9 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
Rashad Jennings | OAK | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -3 | 57 |
Steven Jackson | ATL | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 74 |
Maurice Jones-Drew | JAC | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 83 |
Andre Ellington | ARI | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 34 |
Stevan Ridley | NEP | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 70 |
C.J. Spiller | BUF | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -7 | 31 |
Pierre Thomas | NOS | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -8 | 77 |
Ben Tate | HOU | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -8 | 55 |
Ray Rice | BAL | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -9 | 60 |
Darren Sproles | NOS | 2 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -9 | 93 |
Montee Ball | DEN | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -9 | 16 |
Trent Richardson | IND | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -10 | 56 |
Lamar Miller | MIA | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -12 | 91 |
Doug Martin | TB |
Injury
|
20 | ||||
Bishop Sankey | TEN |
Rookie
|
43 | ||||
Toby Gerhart | JAX |
New Team
|
48 |
Table 4: 2014 Top Drafted RBs Sorted By 2013 Value - Standard Scoring
Unlike last year, where a record number of players (10) were in the Top 36 this year that are not amongst the Top 50 RBs, this season looks to be a lot of the same names and faces - but in some different cities this year for a choice few. I have already mentioned both Jennings and Gerhart, who both could be value picks with new teams. Two other names to specifically mention are Doug Martin, who missed time due to injury, and rookie Bishop Sankey, who could be leading the Tennessee run game as soon as Week 1.
Judging from 2013, it seems that changes in Denver and Miami are going to greatly impact the results and expectations. Knowshon Moreno was the back to own in 2012 for Broncos fans, but with Moreno now in Miami, his value has plummeted. Much more is expected from Montee Ball, who will take over Moreno's role for Denver this year - thus his lofty ADP. Only a rapidly-aging Fred Jackson and also Chris Johnson are positive players with ADPs well above 50. With so much turmoil at tailback, it is important to point out that this value list is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.