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There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player that can give you a consistent performance week after week should be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2013 season, I decided to take the #12 QB for the year (Colin Kaepernick, 312.25 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking QB12 seems a bit arbitrary, but then again QB8 and QB13 are all within about 15 points of one another, but an even better reason is that if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th QB should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a quarterback has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of QB performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th QB average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a QB Quality Start.
Using the QB Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
QB Start Type | Fantasy Points |
Bad Start | 0 to 14.6 |
Quality Start | 14.7 to 24.3 |
Excellent Start | 24.4+ |
Table 1: 2013 QB Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges
We have one more issue in this study, and that is we need to sift through all the quarterbacks and only look at QBs that started an NFL game. That means if Mike Vick started Week 5 last year but gets hurt, Vick is subject to the study (in Week 5) and Nick Foles (in Week 5) is not. That's an important distinction, as several QBs had great games in relief yet they should not get counted. Before we decide on a fantasy lineup, we usually only know the starters for each week, not who might come in if there is an injury.
Pouring over the games week by week, we find 512 starting QB games spread across 51 NFL quarterbacks from 2013. That’s a very important number – only 51 starters. I would dare say that it was a remarkable number, because the number is usually in the mid-50s and sometimes over 60. The total starters for 2012 was even lower at 47 quarterbacks, so this trend is something to note. To put the 51 and 47 starters in perspective, consider that 17 teams had the same quarterback start every game last year and 20 teams had the same starter in 2012. Less than half of the NFL teams needed to use more than one quarterback both seasons. Further, two teams had their top starter for 15 contests. Only five teams across the entire league needed more than two starters (Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota and Oakland used three, Green Bay four). Keep all of that in mind for 2014, as both 2013 and 2012 were unusually healthy years for the quarterback position.
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all 512 starts and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Quarterback | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total starts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Peyton Manning | DEN | 11 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
Drew Brees | NOS | 9 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 6 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 7 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
Philip Rivers | SDC | 7 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
Cam Newton | CAR | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 |
Andrew Luck | IND | 4 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 |
Tom Brady | NEP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 |
Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 5 | 7 | 4 | 16 |
Tony Romo | DAL | 2 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 3 | 11 | 2 | 16 |
Alex Smith | KCC | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
Nick Foles | PHI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
Carson Palmer | ARI | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 2 | 8 | 6 | 16 |
Robert Griffin III | WAS | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 |
Geno Smith | NYJ | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 1 | 8 | 7 | 16 |
Jay Cutler | CHI | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | TEN | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
Chad Henne | JAC | 0 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
Mike Glennon | TBB | 0 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
Aaron Rodgers | GBP | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
E.J. Manuel | BUF | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
Josh McCown | CHI | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Jason Campbell | CLE | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
Matt Schaub | HOU | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
Sam Bradford | STL | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Christian Ponder | MIN | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
Matt Cassel | MIN | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
Case Keenum | HOU | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
Michael Vick | PHI | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
Brandon Weeden | CLE | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Jake Locker | TEN | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
Kellen Clemens | STL | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Matt McGloin | OAK | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Matt Flynn | GBP | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
Thaddeus Lewis | BUF | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Kirk Cousins | WAS | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Brian Hoyer | CLE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Scott Tolzien | GBP | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Josh Freeman | MIN | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Kyle Orton | DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Blaine Gabbert | JAC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Chase Daniel | KCC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Jeff Tuel | BUF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Seneca Wallace | GBP | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
134 | 236 | 142 | 512 |
Table 2: 2013 QB Start Types By Player Sorted By Total Starts
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that 236 of 512 starts fall in the middle - "Quality Starts" - and that about 25% of all quarterback starts (134) are considered Excellent Starts. Over the years, the results have been mixed, partly due to quarterback healthiness but also due to the change in the NFL towards more productive quarterbacking. Between 2008 and 2009, the threshold for an Excellent Start score jumped over 10% (20.1 and above in 2008, 22.5 and above in 2009). That resulted in fewer Excellent Starts in 2009 and 2010 and highlighted the importance of elite quarterback play in fantasy leagues. More quarterbacks started to perform well in 2011, upping the number of Excellent Starts significantly (150 in 2011, only 127 in 2010). Two seasons ago saw another quantum leap in fantasy quarterback production, pushing the Excellent Start threshold up once again by almost two more points per week (24.4 and above in 2012, 22.6 in 2011), which dropped the number of Excellent Starts again (126 in 2012, 150 three years ago). Last year was an exact match to 2012, which begs the question – will the rest of the quarterbacks in the league catch up and raise their collective excellence once again?
A summary of these trends is provided in Table 3:
Year | Excellent Start Score | Excellent Starts | Quality Starts |
2007 | 20.1+ | 158 | 186 |
2008 | 20.1+ | 157 | 211 |
2009 | 22.5+ | 132 | 195 |
2010 | 22.5+ | 127 | 216 |
2011 | 22.6+ | 150 | 216 |
2012 | 24.4+ | 126 | 226 |
2013 | 24.4+ | 134 | 236 |
Table 3: 2007-2013 Excellent and Quality QB Starts
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting quarterback in this system. We want a quarterback that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given starting NFL quarterback. Here is the formula:
STARTING FANTASY QB VALUE = EXCELLENT STARTS - BAD STARTS
We can afford to overlook the "Quality Starts" category because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average quarterback performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Quarterback | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total starts | Net Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Peyton Manning | DEN | 11 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 10 |
Drew Brees | NOS | 9 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 8 |
Philip Rivers | SDC | 7 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 5 |
Nick Foles | PHI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 7 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 4 |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 6 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 3 |
Aaron Rodgers | GBP | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
Josh McCown | CHI | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
Cam Newton | CAR | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 2 |
Andrew Luck | IND | 4 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 2 |
Alex Smith | KCC | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 2 |
Robert Griffin III | WAS | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 2 |
Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 5 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 3 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
Jay Cutler | CHI | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
Kyle Orton | DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Tony Romo | DAL | 2 | 11 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Carson Palmer | ARI | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Sam Bradford | STL | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Michael Vick | PHI | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Matt Flynn | GBP | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Brian Hoyer | CLE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Chase Daniel | KCC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Jeff Tuel | BUF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -1 |
Tom Brady | NEP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -1 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | TEN | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -1 |
Jason Campbell | CLE | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -1 |
Matt Cassel | MIN | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -1 |
Brandon Weeden | CLE | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 |
Jake Locker | TEN | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -1 |
Thaddeus Lewis | BUF | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 |
Kirk Cousins | WAS | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
Scott Tolzien | GBP | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
Seneca Wallace | GBP | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 | -2 |
Christian Ponder | MIN | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -2 |
Matt McGloin | OAK | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -2 |
E.J. Manuel | BUF | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -3 |
Matt Schaub | HOU | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 |
Case Keenum | HOU | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -3 |
Blaine Gabbert | JAC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 2 | 8 | 6 | 16 | -4 |
Geno Smith | NYJ | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -4 |
Chad Henne | JAC | 0 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -4 |
Josh Freeman | MIN | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 |
Mike Glennon | TBB | 0 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -5 |
Kellen Clemens | STL | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 1 | 8 | 7 | 16 | -6 |
134 | 236 | 142 | 512 |
Table 4: 2013 QB Start Types Sorted By Value
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. Let's start with two fantasy gold mines from last year, Philip Rivers and Nick Foles. Both had a +5 Net Value last season, tied for third overall best value for quarterback performance. Foles' numbers are actually even more remarkable as he only had 10 starts, making him the best weekly fantasy choice once he started for the Eagles aside from Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. Rivers held his won, only posting two bad performances in 16 starts, strong numbers in comparison to seven each of excellent and quality starts. The other name to note is Josh McCown, who performed well in just five starts (three excellent, two quality, no bad starts). If all three quarterbacks maintain those performance rates again this season, they will prove to be fantastic draft day values.
Lastly I will sift through all the numbers for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 30 QBs on the 2014 ADP list.
Quarterback | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total starts | Net Value | ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Peyton Manning | DEN | 11 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 23 |
Drew Brees | NOS | 9 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 29 |
Philip Rivers | SDC | 7 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 116 |
Nick Foles | PHI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 70 |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 7 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 50 |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 6 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 126 |
Aaron Rodgers | GBP | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 26 |
Josh McCown | CHI | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 182 |
Cam Newton | CAR | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 82 |
Andrew Luck | IND | 4 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 51 |
Alex Smith | KCC | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 157 |
Robert Griffin III | WAS | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 74 |
Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 5 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 83 |
Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 3 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 148 |
Jay Cutler | CHI | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 99 |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 5 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 108 |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 72 |
Tony Romo | DAL | 2 | 11 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 88 |
Carson Palmer | ARI | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 155 |
Sam Bradford | STL | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 196 |
Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -1 | 121 |
Tom Brady | NEP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -1 | 84 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | TEN | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 283 |
Jake Locker | TEN | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 244 |
E.J. Manuel | BUF | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -3 | 204 |
Matt Schaub | HOU | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 260 |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 2 | 8 | 6 | 16 | -4 | 171 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 1 | 8 | 7 | 16 | -6 | 158 |
Table 5: 2014 Top Drafted QBs Sorted By 2013 Value
Note that three rookies (Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles) are absent from the above list for the simple reason that they did not start any games last year. Judging from last season, it would appear that two of the three names mentioned earlier (Rivers and McCown) have ADPs well above 100 yet are at or near the top of the chart from 2013. Even Nick Foles (ADP 70) looks like a solid value if he falls past Round 6 of drafts. A few other quarterbacks have positive Net Values (Andy Dalton, Alex Smith and also Ryan Tannehill) with ADPs in the 100s, shining even more light on the fact that the quarterback position is very deep in value once again this year. On the flip side, Tom Brady (-1), Ben Roethlisberger (-1), Joe Flacco (-4) and also Eli Manning (-6) are all being well overdrafted if you only consider last year’s performances – but not if you consider New England likely to have Rob Gronkowski back all year, Flacco getting his favorite tight end in Dennis Pitta back as well, a coaching change at offensive coordinator for the Giants, plus another year of experience for the wide receivers in Pittsburgh. That's the biggest warning here - there is no reason to believe all of these numbers as indications of 2014 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.