There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player that can give you a consistent performance week after week should be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.
Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2012 season, I decided to take the #12 QB for the year (Andy Dalton, 311.75 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking QB12 seems a bit arbitrary, but then again the Top 10-12 QBs are all within about 15 points of one another, but an even better reason is that if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th QB should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a quarterback has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of QB performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th QB average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a QB Quality Start.
Using the QB Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
QB Start Type | Fantasy Points |
Bad Start | 0 to 14.6 |
Quality Start | 14.7 to 24.3 |
Excellent Start | 24.4+ |
Table 1: 2012 QB Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges
We have one more issue in this study, and that is we need to sift through all the quarterbacks and only look at QBs that started an NFL game. That means if Jake Locker started Week 4 last year but gets hurt, Locker is subject to the study (in Week 4) and Matthew Hasselbeck (in Week 4) is not. That's an important distinction, as several QBs had great games in relief yet they should not get counted. Before we decide on a fantasy lineup, we usually only know the starters for each week, not who might come in if there is an injury.
Pouring over the games week by week, we find 512 starting QB games spread across 47 NFL quarterbacks from 2012. That’s a very important number – only 47 starters. I would dare say that it was a remarkable number, because the number is usually in the mid-50s and sometimes over 60. To put the 47 in perspective, consider that 20 teams had the same quarterback start every game last year. Only 12 teams needed to use more than one quarterback in all of 2012. Further, five teams had their top starter for 15 contests. Only two teams across the entire league needed more than two starters (Pittsburgh used three, Arizona four). Keep all of that in mind for 2013, as 2012 was an unusually healthy year for the quarterback position.
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all 512 starts and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Quarterback | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total Starts |
Drew Brees | NOS | 8 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
Aaron Rodgers | GBP | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
Tom Brady | NEP | 7 | 9 | 0 | 16 |
Cam Newton | CAR | 5 | 10 | 1 | 16 |
Peyton Manning | DEN | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 8 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
Robert Griffin III | WAS | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
Tony Romo | DAL | 6 | 8 | 2 | 16 |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 5 | 9 | 2 | 16 |
Andrew Luck | IND | 4 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
Josh Freeman | TBB | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 |
Carson Palmer | OAK | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
Sam Bradford | STL | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 |
Matt Schaub | HOU | 2 | 7 | 7 | 16 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | BUF | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
Philip Rivers | SDC | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 |
Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 2 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
Christian Ponder | MIN | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 |
Jay Cutler | CHI | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
Brandon Weeden | CLE | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
Michael Vick | PHI | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
Jake Locker | TEN | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
Chad Henne | JAC | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Alex Smith | SFO | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
Blaine Gabbert | JAC | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Matt Cassel | KCC | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
Nick Foles | PHI | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
Kevin Kolb | ARI | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
Matt Hasselbeck | TEN | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Brady Quinn | KCC | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
John Skelton | ARI | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Kirk Cousins | WAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ryan Lindley | ARI | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Charlie Batch | PIT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Jason Campbell | CHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Byron Leftwich | PIT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Brian Hoyer | ARI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Greg McElroy | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Thaddeus Lewis | CLE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Totals | 126 | 226 | 160 | 512 |
Table 2: 2012 QB Start Types By Player Sorted By Total Starts
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that 226 of 512 starts fall in the middle - "Quality Starts" - and that about 25% of all quarterback starts (126) are considered Excellent Starts. Over the years, the results have been mixed, partly due to quarterback healthiness but also due to the change in the NFL towards more productive quarterbacking. Between 2008 and 2009, the threshold for an Excellent Start score jumped over 10% (20.1 and above in 2008, 22.5 and above in 2009). That resulted in fewer Excellent Starts in 2009 and 2010 and highlighted the importance of elite quarterback play in fantasy leagues. More quarterbacks started to perform well in 2011, upping the number of Excellent Starts significantly (150 in 2011, only 127 in 2010). Last year saw another quantum leap in fantasy quarterback production, pushing the Excellent Start threshold up once again by almost two more points per week (24.4 and above in 2012, 22.6 in 2011), which dropped the number of Excellent Starts again (126 last season, 150 two years ago). The big question is – will the rest of the quarterbacks in the league catch up and raise their collective excellence once again?
A summary of these trends is provided in Table 3:
Year | Excellent Start Score | Excellent Starts | Quality Starts | |
2007 | 20.1+ | 158 | 186 | |
2008 | 20.1+ | 157 | 211 | |
2009 | 22.5+ | 132 | 195 | |
2010 | 22.5+ | 127 | 216 | |
2011 | 22.6+ | 150 | 216 | |
2012 | 24.4+ | 126 | 226 |
Table 3: 2007-2012 Excellent and Quality QB Starts
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting quarterback in this system. We want a quarterback that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given starting NFL quarterback. Here is the formula:
Starting Fantasy QB Value = Excellent Starts - Bad Starts
We can afford to overlook the "Quality Starts" category because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average quarterback performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Quarterback | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total Starts | Net Value |
Drew Brees | NOS | 8 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 7 |
Aaron Rodgers | GBP | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 |
Tom Brady | NEP | 7 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 7 |
Peyton Manning | DEN | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 8 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 6 |
Robert Griffin | WAS | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 6 |
Cam Newton | CAR | 5 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
Tony Romo | DAL | 6 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 4 |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 5 | 9 | 2 | 16 | 3 |
Andrew Luck | IND | 4 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 2 |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
Kevin Kolb | ARI | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
Kirk Cousins | WAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Carson Palmer | OAK | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Philip Rivers | SDC | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 2 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Michael Vick | PHI | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Byron Leftwich | PIT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Brian Hoyer | ARI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -1 |
Josh Freeman | TBB | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -1 |
Charlie Batch | PIT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
Jason Campbell | CHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Greg McElroy | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Thaddeus Lewis | CLE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -2 |
Sam Bradford | STL | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -2 |
Chad Henne | JAC | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -2 |
Nick Foles | PHI | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -2 |
Matt Hasselbeck | TEN | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -3 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | BUF | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -3 |
Jake Locker | TEN | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | -3 |
Alex Smith | SFO | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -3 |
Matt Cassel | KCC | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -4 |
John Skelton | ARI | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -4 |
Ryan Lindley | ARI | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 |
Matt Schaub | HOU | 2 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -5 |
Christian Ponder | MIN | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -5 |
Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 | -6 |
Jay Cutler | CHI | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -6 |
Brandon Weeden | CLE | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -6 |
Blaine Gabbert | JAC | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -7 |
Brady Quinn | KCC | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -7 |
Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -10 |
Table 4: 2012 QB Start Types Sorted By Value
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. Let's start with the three young quarterbacks that everyone loved last year. Rookie Russell Wilson was adored for his NFL performances, as was Colin Kaepernick for his January heroics – yet neither quarterback achieved a significant net positive fantasy score (Kaepernick was +1, Wilson -1). Sure, Kaepernick did not play the full season, but can he elevate to elite status for a full year in 2013? Can Wilson perform like an elite fantasy quarterback? The third young quarterback, Robert Griffin II, is just one strong performance from being tied atop of the leaderboard, and he played in only 15 contests last season, so he could be your ace in the hole this year if he can get and stay healthy all season long. The top of the chart is dominated with elite veterans, but if you can find the correct second or third tier quarterback who can elevate at the right times, a quarterback like Tony Romo or Robert Griffin III could be your fantasy team’s hero.
Lastly I will sift through all the numbers for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 29 QBs on the 2013 ADP list.
Quarterback | Team | Excellent Start | Quality Start | Bad Start | Total starts | Net Value | ADP |
Drew Brees | NOS | 8 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 25 |
Aaron Rodgers | GBP | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 29 |
Peyton Manning | DEN | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 39 |
Tom Brady | NEP | 7 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 53 |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 8 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 50 |
Robert Griffin | WAS | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 67 |
Cam Newton | CAR | 5 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 47 |
Tony Romo | DAL | 6 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 76 |
Matthew Stafford | DET | 5 | 9 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 63 |
Andrew Luck | IND | 4 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 71 |
Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 75 |
Andy Dalton | CIN | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 112 |
Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 2 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 124 |
Carson Palmer | OAK | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 145 |
Michael Vick | PHI | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 146 |
Philip Rivers | SDC | 3 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 157 |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -1 | 85 |
Josh Freeman | TBB | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -1 | 133 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -2 | 97 |
Sam Bradford | STL | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -2 | 141 |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -3 | 156 |
Alex Smith | SFO | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 169 |
Jake Locker | TEN | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 236 |
Matt Schaub | HOU | 2 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -5 | 150 |
Jay Cutler | CHI | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 131 |
Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 | -6 | 168 |
Brandon Weeden | CLE | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 242 |
Table 5: 2013 Top Drafted QBs Sorted By 2012 Value
Note that two rookies (EJ Manuel, Geno Smith) are absent from the above list for the simple reason that they did not start any games last year. Judging from last season, it would appear that a healthy Robert Griffin III could be the fantasy quarterback steal of the draft this year, if he is able to replicate his numbers from 2012. On the flip side, Jay Cutler (-6) and Ryan Tannehill (-6) are both being well overdrafted if you only consider last year’s performances – but not if you consider a coaching change for the Bears, another year of experience themselves and additions in the receiving game like Chicago’s Martellus Bennett and Miami’s Mike Wallace. That's the biggest warning here - there is no reason to believe all of these numbers as indications of 2013 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.