This year's Quarterback by Committee article sparked a few great questions from the readers, and that led to this article where I could share the answers. Sometimes the questions are so good, you have to share the responses to everyone as most anyone would be curious for the answer, and can stand to benefit from it in their drafts. That's how some of the best articles are born. A reader of the original QBBC article (Kevin Tabackman) posed a great question of whether it made sense to use Roethlisberger only at home and pair him with a different quarterback for a unique twist of QBBC. I actually loved this idea, so I was anxious to see what the answer would be.
First, there is the concern this year (and in recent years) about the unique performance patterns for Ben Roethlisberger. Our favorite Pittsburgh quarterback has a strange history of doing very well at home, while struggling on the road. This has morphed into the infamous "Home/Road Split" debate for Mr. Roethlisberger, but there can be no denying of what the numbers have shown. First, let's take a look at Roethlisberger's career numbers at home vs. the road, and then also since two significant changes have occurred during his Steeler career:
Time Frame | 2007-2016 | 2013-2016 | 2014-2016 | |||
Category | Home | Road | Home | Road | Home | Road |
Attempts | 33.5 | 34.1 | 37.5 | 37.3 | 39.1 | 36.5 |
Completions | 21.9 | 21.7 | 25.2 | 24.1 | 26.7 | 23.7 |
Interceptions | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.8 | 1 |
Passing Touchdowns | 2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
Passing Yards | 272.40 | 255.50 | 313.82 | 271.73 | 339.85 | 269.90 |
Fantasy Points | 18.2 | 14.9 | 22.2 | 14.7 | 24.4 | 14.2 |
Delta | 3.3 | 16.5% | 7.5 | 32.0% | 10.2 | 39.4% |
Table 1: Ben Roethlisgerger's Career Performances - Home vs. Road
A special thanks to fellow Footballguy Ryan Hester (follow him on Twitter here) for pulling together this data!
The reasons for drawing the lines throughout his career at these intervals is that Pittsburgh changed to head coach Mike Tomlin in 2007 and then LeVeon Bell joined the team in 2013. So as the tables above show, it really does not matter how you slice it - Roethlisberger has clearly been a better quarterback at home in comparision to on the road, with as much as 39% difference in performance. That is definitely significant, no matter what the reason - be it a new head coach or the addition of a stud running back. Numbers are numbers, and the numbers here tell us that we have to at least consider not playing Ben Roethlisberger when he is not in Pittsburgh.
Now, looking at the schedule for the Steelers, Week 1 takes Pittsburgh to Cleveland. Surely, the Browns have to be the exception for Roethlisberger, right? Cleveland has been terrible, so one would expect that Roethlisberger would have a better history against them. Table 2 gives us a quick answer:
Years | 2007-2016 | |
Category | at CLE | All others |
Attempts | 28.5 | 34.2 |
Completions | 17.1 | 22.1 |
Interceptions | 0.3 | 0.84 |
Passing Touchdowns | 1.3 | 1.74 |
Passing Yards | 200.3 | 268.6 |
Fantasy Points | 13.4 | 16.9 |
Delta | -4.6 | 16.5% |
Table 2 - Ben Roethlisberger's Career Numbers in Cleveland
In two words - not good. Roethlisberger has not done well even at Cleveland on the road.
So, in response to the question of whether or not to use Ben Roethlisberger as your fantasy starter on the road this season, I offer you three questions:
1. Do you believe that history repeats itself? If you answer "Yes", pass on starting Ben Roethlisberger and skip ahead to the next section.
2. If there is any team you would consider starting Roethlisberger on the road against, it would be the lowly Cleveland Browns, correct?" If you answer "Yes", please refer to Table 2 and try and get past Question 3.
3. If you agree that Roethlisberger struggles in Cleveland (as Table 2 shows), would you also agree that any other road game will be tougher for him this year?" If you answer "Yes", please continue reading to find out how to deal with this issue.
QB-Ben BY COMMITTEE
May I present to you a twist on the quarterback by committee, or QBBC approach to the position. Enter in the "QB Ben By Committee", or "QB-BenBC" for short. The plan here is to find out what quarterback(s) best complement using Ben Roethlisberger as your starting quarterback only when he is in Pittsburgh. That required some thought, but I was able to re-use the QBBC tools that I have to find out the answer. By plugging in a zero projected score for Roethlisberger for all eight of his road games, I forced the tool to give me the best options to use to replace Roethlisberger with a single alternative quarterback for my QB2. The results are provided below:
QB1
|
QB2
|
Value |
343.85 | ||
Dak Prescott
|
334.23 | |
Philip Rivers
|
332.78 | |
Andy Dalton
|
329.81 |
Table 3 - Quarterback Ben By Committee Options for 2017
Four names appear on the list to pair with Ben Roethlisberger, and all but Dak Prescott should fit the bill as QB2s available shortly after Ben Roethlisberger gets selected. So how do these pairs stand up?
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Now that we have four possible quarterbacks to pair with Ben Roethlisberger, how do those compare to a QB1 option for 2017? Going back to the original QBBC article this year, we can fall back to Table 4 for the projections for the Top 12 QBs in standard scoring:
ADP | QB Rank | Player | Team | FPs | FP Rank |
19 | 1 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 387.84 | 1 |
28 | 2 | Tom Brady | NE | 380.16 | 2 |
38 | 3 | Drew Brees | NO | 362.88 | 3 |
55 | 5 | Andrew Luck | IND | 357.94 | 4 |
52 | 4 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 352.48 | 5 |
62 | 6 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 346.56 | 6 |
83 | 10 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 344.87 | 7 |
78 | 8 | Jameis Winston | TB | 342.24 | 8 |
76 | 7 | Cam Newton | CAR | 339.75 | 9 |
86 | 12 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 332.57 | 10 |
85 | 11 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | 327.76 | 11 |
88 | 13 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 324.16 | 12 |
100 | 14 | Philip Rivers | LAC | 322.72 | 13 |
123 | 17 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 321.48 | 14 |
82 | 9 | Derek Carr | OAK | 319.58 | 15 |
Table 4: Projected Fantasy Points for Top 12+ ADP QBs
Based on Tables 3 and 4, we see that the top option (Roethlisberger-Stafford) yields a projected total of 343.85 points, or not far off of Ben Roethlisberger all season long and a bye week replacement - and just a few points behind the QB1 target of Cam Newton with a similar replacement quarterback for Newton's week off. So taking Ben Roethlisberger in your draft and quicklly following up with Matthew Stafford can provide you with exactly what you wished for - a quarterback committee with Roethlisberger at home for eight games and another quarterback to use when Pittsburgh is on the road
Table 5 summarizes the combined schedule for Roethlisberger and Stafford:
Week | Suggested Player | Opponent |
1 | Matthew Stafford | Arizona |
2 | Ben Roethlisberger | Minnesota |
3 | Matthew Stafford | Atlanta |
4 | Matthew Stafford | at Minnesota |
5 | Ben Roethlisberger | Jacksonville |
6 | Matthew Stafford | at New Orleans |
7 | Ben Roethlisberger | Cincinnati |
8 | Matthew Stafford | Pittsburgh |
9 | Matthew Stafford | at Green Bay |
10 | Matthew Stafford | Cleveland |
11 | Ben Roethlisberger | Tennessee |
12 | Ben Roethlisberger | Green Bay |
13 | Matthew Stafford | at Baltimore |
14 | Ben Roethlisberger | Baltimore |
15 | Ben Roethlisberger | New England |
16 | Matthew Stafford | at Cincinnati |
17 | Ben Roethlisberger | Cleveland |
Table 5: Suggested QB-BenBC Schedule Plan - Ben Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford
QBBC for AUCTIONS
As a small bonus, another reader (Mike H.) emailed me and mentioned that he was in an auction league, so while the QBBC approach was still valid, he wished that I had not drawn a line at QB12 and only considered players under that line. The reasoning is valid, as quarterbacks 7-13 should be in similar price ranges in auctions, so a strong QBBC may exist by taking two from this group or one QB from the group and another later value option. To help with this scenario, I am providing another table below that shows the Top 100 quarterback pairs with only the Top 5 quarterbacks not available:
Pair No. | QB1 | QB2 | Value |
1 | Russell Wilson | Jameis Winston | 385.66 |
2 | Russell Wilson | Philip Rivers | 381.72 |
3 | Jameis Winston | Kirk Cousins | 379.88 |
4 | Russell Wilson | Marcus Mariota | 379.14 |
5 | Russell Wilson | Kirk Cousins | 378.79 |
6 | Jameis Winston | Philip Rivers | 377.1 |
7 | Jameis Winston | Dak Prescott | 377.09 |
8 | Marcus Mariota | Philip Rivers | 374.29 |
9 | Russell Wilson | Ben Roethlisberger | 373.48 |
10 | Russell Wilson | Derek Carr | 373.27 |
11 | Russell Wilson | Cam Newton | 373.05 |
12 | Marcus Mariota | Jameis Winston | 372.72 |
13 | Marcus Mariota | Kirk Cousins | 372.59 |
14 | Russell Wilson | Carson Wentz | 372.24 |
15 | Russell Wilson | Matthew Stafford | 371.11 |
16 | Jameis Winston | Andy Dalton | 370.59 |
17 | Dak Prescott | Philip Rivers | 370.57 |
18 | Jameis Winston | Derek Carr | 370.36 |
19 | Jameis Winston | Matthew Stafford | 369.83 |
20 | Jameis Winston | Eli Manning | 369.68 |
21 | Cam Newton | Philip Rivers | 369.53 |
22 | Jameis Winston | Ben Roethlisberger | 369.28 |
23 | Russell Wilson | Blake Bortles | 368.75 |
24 | Philip Rivers | Derek Carr | 368.26 |
25 | Jameis Winston | Blake Bortles | 367.94 |
26 | Jameis Winston | Carson Wentz | 367.67 |
27 | Marcus Mariota | Dak Prescott | 367.46 |
28 | Marcus Mariota | Cam Newton | 367.33 |
29 | Kirk Cousins | Dak Prescott | 366.78 |
30 | Cam Newton | Kirk Cousins | 366.49 |
31 | Jameis Winston | Tyrod Taylor | 366.16 |
32 | Dak Prescott | Derek Carr | 365.92 |
33 | Marcus Mariota | Andy Dalton | 365.78 |
34 | Russell Wilson | Joe Flacco | 365.45 |
35 | Russell Wilson | Carson Palmer | 364.96 |
36 | Russell Wilson | Sam Bradford | 364.78 |
37 | Philip Rivers | Andy Dalton | 364.75 |
38 | Russell Wilson | Jay Cutler | 364.72 |
39 | Russell Wilson | Alex Smith | 364.18 |
40 | Jameis Winston | Joe Flacco | 363.95 |
41 | Russell Wilson | Eli Manning | 363.15 |
42 | Marcus Mariota | Ben Roethlisberger | 363.04 |
43 | Kirk Cousins | Andy Dalton | 362.95 |
44 | Andy Dalton | Derek Carr | 362.36 |
45 | Kirk Cousins | Philip Rivers | 362.04 |
46 | Russell Wilson | Dak Prescott | 361.59 |
47 | Marcus Mariota | Derek Carr | 361.47 |
48 | Jameis Winston | Sam Bradford | 361.41 |
49 | Jameis Winston | Carson Palmer | 360.46 |
50 | Marcus Mariota | Matthew Stafford | 360.25 |
51 | Cam Newton | Derek Carr | 360.1 |
52 | Jameis Winston | Alex Smith | 360.05 |
53 | Philip Rivers | Matthew Stafford | 359.72 |
54 | Kirk Cousins | Matthew Stafford | 359.44 |
55 | Kirk Cousins | Derek Carr | 359.19 |
56 | Philip Rivers | Eli Manning | 359.04 |
57 | Kirk Cousins | Eli Manning | 358.86 |
58 | Dak Prescott | Matthew Stafford | 358.42 |
59 | Ben Roethlisberger | Dak Prescott | 357.85 |
60 | Dak Prescott | Carson Wentz | 357.72 |
61 | Cam Newton | Dak Prescott | 357.64 |
62 | Cam Newton | Ben Roethlisberger | 357.49 |
63 | Ben Roethlisberger | Derek Carr | 356.38 |
64 | Ben Roethlisberger | Kirk Cousins | 356.14 |
65 | Derek Carr | Eli Manning | 355.78 |
66 | Dak Prescott | Eli Manning | 355.53 |
67 | Marcus Mariota | Tyrod Taylor | 355.51 |
68 | Cam Newton | Carson Wentz | 355.27 |
69 | Marcus Mariota | Carson Wentz | 355.05 |
70 | Cam Newton | Eli Manning | 354.33 |
71 | Philip Rivers | Tyrod Taylor | 354.26 |
72 | Cam Newton | Andy Dalton | 354.23 |
73 | Russell Wilson | Andy Dalton | 353.57 |
74 | Kirk Cousins | Carson Wentz | 353.23 |
75 | Cam Newton | Matthew Stafford | 352.98 |
76 | Jameis Winston | Cam Newton | 352.76 |
77 | Ben Roethlisberger | Matthew Stafford | 352.52 |
78 | Philip Rivers | Carson Wentz | 352.33 |
79 | Ben Roethlisberger | Andy Dalton | 352.1 |
80 | Marcus Mariota | Joe Flacco | 352.08 |
81 | Derek Carr | Matthew Stafford | 351.95 |
82 | Cam Newton | Blake Bortles | 351.93 |
83 | Philip Rivers | Carson Palmer | 351.85 |
84 | Ben Roethlisberger | Eli Manning | 351.5 |
85 | Dak Prescott | Carson Palmer | 351.49 |
86 | Dak Prescott | Blake Bortles | 350.73 |
87 | Philip Rivers | Alex Smith | 350.72 |
88 | Philip Rivers | Blake Bortles | 350.62 |
89 | Andy Dalton | Matthew Stafford | 350.52 |
90 | Andy Dalton | Eli Manning | 349.87 |
91 | Kirk Cousins | Tyrod Taylor | 349.29 |
92 | Marcus Mariota | Sam Bradford | 349.27 |
93 | Andy Dalton | Blake Bortles | 349.07 |
94 | Russell Wilson | Tyrod Taylor | 349.07 |
95 | Philip Rivers | Joe Flacco | 348.77 |
96 | Eli Manning | Matthew Stafford | 348.7 |
97 | Cam Newton | Tyrod Taylor | 348.59 |
98 | Kirk Cousins | Blake Bortles | 348.03 |
99 | Cam Newton | Joe Flacco | 347.6 |
100 | Andy Dalton | Carson Wentz | 347.39 |
101 | Russell Wilson | n/a | 347.18 |
Table 6: Top 100 QBBC Pairs Also Including QB6-QB12
Table 6 worked out perfectly, as the Top 100 pairs are all above QB6 by himself, Russell Wilson. Getting any two quarterbacks in the upper half of Table 6 to pair up from this list represents a projected QB6 value including a 18-20 point bye week replacement.
The committee approach is not a perfect one, but having this knowledge prior to your fantasy draft can prove to be invaluable if you decide to adopt this approach. If all the players on your starter list are gone, going with a committee can save your team and help you deal with the loss of bigger names. The method is also a big help in "Best Ball" leagues, where lineup decisions are not necessary every week. That's exactly where a committee can do the best, as either player can count for you each week.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.