Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This is not a great week for waiver wires, so I went on to dig pretty deep. With six teams on a bye week and a few coming back, it is tricky to find value right now. Harvesting from teams that are taking Week 8 off is a good plan to get ahead of your league for Week 9 and beyond.
Week 9 Comment: You might be running out of time and money at this point of the season. The year is half over, so grab some potential values while you still can. Most of the byes will be behind us after Monday, so start planning for the rest of the fantasy regular season and the playoffs now.
Week 10 Comment: Just a few more weeks of byes and fantasy regular season. Get the players you want now with whatever money you have, and start getting a roster ready for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: You are running out of time for the fantasy football regular season, and to make moves. Bid now, get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Week 12 Comment: Getting close to the "last call" at the waiver wire bar. Spend now. Get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Week 13 Comment: This is the final week of byes (just two - Cleveland and Tennessee), and for many it is the end of the fantasy regular season. Check your rules for your league, as some leagues lock waivers after this week. Be sure to have enough depth on your roster in case someone gets hurt, even a kicker. Do not let that ruin your postseason.
Week 14 Comment: Byes are over and for most leagues, the fantasy playoffs are about to begin. Take a few gambles if you have depth, but be sure to have solid handcuffs and backups to players you are counting on for December. Only players that might start for you matter.
Week 15 Comment: Same as last week - It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 16 Comment: Same as last week - It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 15 of the 2016 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
Note - It is getting harder to find true starters, but many of these players could already be owned. If not, go get them:
- Ty Montgomery, RB/WR, Packers ($501): Well, I guess he is a running back, now isn’t he? `His rushing numbers (16-162-2) in frozen Chicago were very impressive, and he can still catch a few passes as well. Green Bay faces a now suspect Minnesota defense in Week 16, and Montgomery is very much a strong option as a RB2.
- A.J. Green, WR, Bengals ($400+ in case he comes back)
- Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs ($356): Even on a cold day, he found the end zone as a rusher. Kansas City just wants the ball in the hands of this speedster. Hill takes on Tennessee in Week 16.
- Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks ($311): Seattle continues to try and get Tyler Lockett in the mix more and more each week, and the Thursday contest against the Rams saw Lockett come away with seven catches, 130 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. Seattle faces Arizona in Week 16, which is an interesting matchup after Drew Brees picked them apart on Sunday.
- Kenneth Farrow, RB, Chargers ($283): Farrow led the way in the Charger backfield in Week 15 against Oakland, but he managed just 39 yards on the ground despite 15 carries, and only added two catches for 14 additional yards. San Diego does face Cleveland’s poor rushing defense in Week 16, which makes Farrow a very intriguing option.
- Cameron Meredith, WR, Bears ($276): Meredith is back in the relevant waiver wire receiver conversations after catching 9 of 13 targets for 104 yards against Green Bay in freezing Chicago on Sunday. Chicago faces Washington in Week 16 and Alshon Jeffery will draw Josh Norman coverage, leaving Meredith with similar upside fro Week 16.
- Derrick Henry, RB, Titans ($251): Henry scored twice for the Titans on just nine carries, elevating his 58 yards against the Chiefs in Week 15. If he keeps stealing the touchdowns, Henry becomes a big fantasy asset. Tennessee faces Jacksonville and Houston to close out the regular season.
- Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers ($247, $273 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Brate still might be available in a few leagues, and Tampa Bay faces the Saints in Week 16. Grab him if he is out there.
- Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers ($245): Forget all the numbers for Winston – just know that he faces Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome in Week 16. Shootout potential for certain here, making Winston a strong QB1 candidate.
- Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings ($233): Need I say why?
- J.J. Nelson, WR, Cardinals ($231): The Cardinals threw for a ton of yards and scores against the Saints on Sunday, and Nelson was a big factor. Nelson finished the day with respectable numbers (5-38-1, 11 targets) but his catch percentage was under 50%, showing he could have had even more. Seattle is up next, however, and that can put a damper on his upside for Week 16.
- Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants ($223): Shepard is the WR2 for the Giants now, and he found the end zone in Week 15 against Detroit despite just five targets. Shepard gets a better matchup with the Eagles on Thursday, giving Shepard more value and upside in Week 16.
- Tim Hightower, RB, Saints ($221): Mark Ingram owners cannot be happy that Hightower got two scores this week, as Hightower boosted his modest rushing numbers (11-37-2) with the two scores against Arizona. Hightower also had some production as a receiver (3-11) but the two TDs really boosted his value. New Orleans hosts the Buccaneers in Week 16.
- Bilal Powell, RB, Jets ($218): Even with Matt Forte active, Powell had impressive numbers against Miami (16-84 rushing, 11-78 receiving) on Saturday. The Jets face New England in a tough matchup, but Powell looks to have plenty of value for Week 16.
- Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys ($201, $255 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Dallas leaned on their big veteran tight end in Week 15, as Witten saw 10 targets against Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football. Witten converted all ten for short yardage (just 51 yards), but that volume makes him viable in most leagues. Dallas faces Detroit in Week 16, a very favorable matchup for tight ends.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans ($197): Matthews has become the WR1 in Tennessee, as he saw 10 targets from Marcus Mariota in cold Kansas City on Sunday. Matthews only caught four passes but he racked up over 100 yards, so he has good viability for lineups in Week 16 against Jacksonville.
- Robby Anderson, WR, Jets ($193): Anderson has to be considered the WR1 for the Jets right now, as he
continues to be one of the few bright spots for the Jets, as he caught four of six targets for 80 yards and a touchdown against Miami on Saturday night. A date with the Patriots in Week 16 is not a great matchup, but Anderson is still going to get targets come Week 16. - Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots ($188): New England mixed up their backfield against Denver, giving Dion Lewis 18 carries and three targets out of the backfield. Lewis’ numbers were respectable (18-98 rushing, 2-9 receiving) but a fumble down near the goal line really cost him the chance for a score. The Patriots face the Jets in Week 16 in what should be a much tougher running game matchup.
- Ryan Griffin, TE, Texans ($187, $213 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): With C.J. Fiederowicz (concussion) out in Week 15, Griffin stepped up and converted the sizeable amount of targets for the Texans against Jacksonville. Griffin caught all eight chances for 85 yards, and now the Texans face off with the Bengals, who struggle against tight ends. Griffin, if he starts again, has TE1 upside.
- Charles Clay, TE, Bills ($185, $203 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Clay took full advantage of a favorable matchup against Cleveland in Week 15, catching all seven targets for 72 yards and a nice falling catch of a touchdown in the end zone. Buffalo faces Miami in a tougher matchup on Saturday, but Clay should have TE2 value with upside.
- Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins ($184): Moore only completed 12 passes for 236 yards, but four touchdowns can make any quarterback fantasy relevant in a hurry. Miami travels to Buffalo for another must win game for the Dolphins, and Moore is a viable QB2 with upside this week.
- Ladarius Green, TE, Steelers ($183, $193 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Green continues to run short routes for Ben Roethliserger, forcing defenses to account for multiple targets now in the Pittsburgh passing game. Green had eight targets, catching five for 72 yards, but he was banged up at the end of the Week 15 contest with Cincinnati. Baltimore is up next and the Ravens defend tight ends well, but Green is still worth a pickup.
- Brandon LaFell, WR, Bengals ($177): LaFell should be owned in all leagues by now, as his 7-91 day as the Bengals WR1 displays. Cincinnati squares off with Houston in Week 16 as the Bengals play out the string.
- Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($174): Inman continues to be the top target for Philip Rivers, with Inman getting eight targets to lead all San Diego receivers in Week 16. Inman translated those eight changes into a 5-68 day against the Raiders, but a great matchup looms with Cleveland in Week 16.
- Aldrick Robinson, WR, Falcons ($172): Robinson helped to fill the void left by Julio Jones in Week 15, as he piled up over 100 yards receiving (4-111) on just five targets. If Jones is out again, Robinson has WR3 and upside value against the Carolina Panthers.
- Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles ($171): Mathews was the workhorse for Philadelphia, as the Eagles really ran out of options against Baltimore in Week 15. Mathews turned 20 chances into 125 yards and a score, an impressive total regardless of the matchup but especially against a formidable Ravens rushing defense. The Eagles have a short week with the Giants up next on Thursday, so Mathews may be the main man again for Week 16.
- Dion Sims, TE, Dolphins ($170, $183 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Dion Sims only saw four targets from Matt Moore in Week 15, but he made them all count. Not only did he pull down all four chances for 31 yards, he fought his way into the end zone twice to really increase his fantasy value. With the Bills up next in Week 16, Sims has some value as a pickup and spot flex or even a spot tight end fantasy start this weekend.
- Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens ($169): Dixon has to be owned in your league by now, but if not, he is a starting tailback just begging for you to add him to your roster. Even if the Ravens have the Steelers up next, you have to take Dixon with all the implied touches he should get on Saturday.
- Paul Perkins, RB, Giants ($166): Perkins (11-56) looked more impressive than R Jennings did in Week 15 for the Giants backfield, which may mean that Perkins gets a bit more work in Week 16 against Philadelphia. Neither sets of numbers were stellar, but there is likely not much at running back on the waiver wire these days.
- Terrance West, RB, Ravens ($160): If Baltimore ever decided on a lead back, this would be easier – but for now, West and Kenneth Dixon are splitting that backfield. Tough matchup against Pittsburgh, but West is a viable flex option for Week 16.
- John Brown, WR, Cardinals ($158): Arizona had a ton of passing production in Week 15 against New Orleans, and John Brown (5-81-1, six targets) was a major contributor to that effort. Seattle is up next, however, which should be a much tougher matchup in Week 16.
- Eli Rogers, WR, Steelers ($144): Rogers is back in the passing game mix for Pittsburgh, as he converted five of six targets for 75 yards and a needed score in a comeback against Cincinnati on Sunday. Rogers may see even more targets if Ladarius Green is banged up for the matchup with Baltimore in Week 16.
- Deonte Thompson, WR, Bears ($141): Chicago was super cold on Sunday, yet Thompson was still able to collect eight of 10 targets for 110 yards in the frigid conditions. The Bears face Washington in Week 16 in what should be a much more favorable environment. Thompson is a tricky pick as he is the third receiver now, but the Bears have to throw a ton so he is a viable WR3/flex for Week 16.
- Justin Forsett, RB, Broncos ($124): Forsett is the new lead back in Denver, but I did not exactly say “new and improved”. Forsett had just 10 carries for 37 yards and added four catches for 16 more yards against New England in Week 15. Denver visits Kansas City in Week 16, which is not a favorable matchup but a starter is a starter this time of year.
- T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars ($121): Yeldon led all Jacksonville backs in touches and yards in Week 15, even with Chris Ivory back in the mix. Yeldon’’s production was modest (8-28 rushing, 5-34 receiving) and the Week 16 game against the Titans is far from ideal, but if you need a running back and the cupboard is bare, Yeldon is a viable player to grab and hope he finds the end zone.
- Robert Turbin, RB, Colts ($116): Turbin vulured not just one but two touchdowns for the Colts against Minnesota, punching the ball across in the red zone instead of Frank Gore. The rest of Turbin’s numbers (7-32-2 rushing, 2-22 receiving) were rather unimpressive, but in TD heavy leagues Turbin is woth a look.
- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings ($115): Minnesota fell way behind on Sunday to the Colts, leading the Vikings to have to throw quite a bit to all their receiving options. Patterson caught five passes for 49 yards on eight targets, and a similar performance may be up next against Green Bay in Week 16.
- Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings ($113): Virtually the same thing can be said for Johnson as I mentioned for Patterson, but Johnson saw fewer targets (five) but produced similar fantasy numbers (5-50). Johnson has less upside as Patterson returns kicks.
- Christine Michael, RB, Packers ($112): Michael did not get many chances against the Bears in Week 15 (4-45-1), but he did break off a nice touchdown run late in the matchup. With Ty Montgomery taking the lead in that backfield, Michael becomes an interesting handcuff.
- Jeremy Kerley, WR, 49ers ($108): Stop me if you have heard this one before – the 49ers fell behind early and threw a ton in catchup mode. Kerley had eight targets in Week 15, but just five catches and 28 yards. I think you can do better.
- Tom Savage, QB, Texans ($101): If you are in dire need for a quarterback, Savage may get a start against Jacksonville this week. He was better than Brock Osweiler on Sunday, and the Jaguars are a good matchup.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- It's Week 16. Maybe grab a handcuff running back to your starter or a backup kicker if your waiver wire locks, but otherwise now is not the time of year for hopeful upside pickups. You need starters and contributors only now.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.