Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with New England off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, New England and Tennessee were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This week is a make or break waiver wire week to me. Pick up the wrong guys and you will pay dearly for it. Waiver wire money will cost you, as will the wasted roster spot, but also the missed chance to get someone else. I see lots of Fools' Gold this week, so read on and choose wisely.
Week 9 Comment: Time to make some moves. With stars from six teams on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 Comment: Time to make some moves. With stars from six teams coming off of the bye week, those guys could fly under the radar. it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: Bye weeks are almost behind us, with just six more teams to take a week off. Now it is time to roster some guys to back up your top backs and receivers and get the roster set for your fantasy playoffs.
Week 12 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks ($261): Rawls had a breakout game against San Francisco with Marshawn Lynch out, and Lynch has already been scratched for Week 12. Starting tailbacks are rare to find in November, especially ones that rush for 200 yards, so bid big on Rawls.
- Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers ($201): Lots of guys like Jackson are returning to health (like Eddie Lacy and Desean Jackson). If any of those guys somehow were cut in your league, fix that mistake and scoop them up.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Brock Osweiler, QB, Broncos ($177): Osweiler looked good from start to finish against the Bears in his first career start, and this could be the beginning of his career as the starter for Denver. If you need a QB2, you can do way worse than Osweiler.
- Javorius Allen, RB, Ravens ($151): Starting running backs are worth adding to any roster, but Baltimore is a complete mess right now having lost Joe Flacco and Steve Smith earlier this year. Now with Justin Forsett breaking his arm, Allen becomes the starter but how likely is he to produce good fantasy numbers? I say add him but only as depth or an emergency backup option.
- Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks ($146): Lockett has been stepping up quite a bit as a receiver for Russell Wilson. Lockett pulled in four catches and two touchdowns against Seattle and could be pushing Doug Baldwin for the top wide receiver position soon.
- James Jones, WR, Packers ($134): James Jones had a beautiful touchdown when Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers needed help on Sunday. It was not enough for the win, but it does show that Jones is a key receiver for Rodgers and that could bode well for Week 12 against the Bears.
- Golden Tate, WR, Lions ($133): Tate had a good matchup last week with Calvin Johnson getting tough coverage, and Tate stepped up for eight catches and 73 yards. He should do well as a WR3 against the Eagles in Week 12.
- Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans ($133): If you are shopping for a quarterback this week, Mariota should be high on that list. He spreads the ball around to multiple targets and looked comfortable back as the starter. Throw out last week’s mediocre game – he had four touchdown passes in Week 10. I like him down the stretch as a decent QB2 with some upside.
- Vernon Davis, TE, Broncos ($127, $174 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):): The newest Denver Bronco, Vernon Davis, stepped up in his second game with the franchise as he recorded six catches for 68 yards against Chicago in Week 11. Denver’s offense is evolving around Brock Osweiler, and the young QB targeted tight ends quite a bit against the Bears. I like Davis’ upside going forward as the most athletic option in Denver at the position. If Davis and Osweiler build up rapport, both could hold tremendous fantasy value for the playoffs.
- Devin Funchess, WR, Panthers ($126): Cam Newton had a field day against Washington in Week 11 with five touchdowns, all of which went to different Carolina receivers. Rookie Devin Funchess saw more snaps and targets as the WR2 for the Panthers, and he responded well with a 4-64-1 stat line. Funchess still has to get used to Cam’s fastball, but he has solid upside in a productive offense, plus he has great size in the red zone to make him a good target for touchdowns.
- J.J. Nelson, WR, Cardinals ($125): With Michael Floyd out, most thought it would be Jaron Brown that stepped up as the WR3 for Arizona. Apparently not, as rookie J.J. Nelson came back from an early season injury and scored two long touchdowns against Cincinnati. He is definitely worth adding as a receiver on a good passing team.
- Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs ($123): Ware stepped up for Kansas City when Charcandrick West was sidelined with a hamstring issue. Ware scored twice late in the game to close out a win for the Chiefs, and if he gets called upon to lead the ground game, he makes for a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.
- Johnny Manziel, QB, Browns ($121): The Browns may be going with Manziel the rest of the year as their starter, so he can be looked at now as a viable QB2 candidate. His floor is reasonably high considering that he can run and the Cleveland backs cannot.
- Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons ($117): Coleman’s value is completely dependent upon how fast Devonta Freeman returns to health. Freeman was hit hard to the head and sidelined with a concussion early in Week 11’s contest against the Colts, which resulted in Coleman getting 17 carries. Coleman was not the effective as a rusher though and caught zero passes, so he has little value even if he starts next week.
- Leonard Hankerson, WR, Falcons ($112): Atlanta had to figure out a way to move the ball without Devonta Freeman on Sunday, and fortunately for the Falcons all three of their top receivers were active. Hankerson had four catches for 36 yards and a short touchdown in the loss to the Colts, but Hankerson saw enough usage and targets from Matt Ryan to have some WR3/flex appeal.
- Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears ($106): Whenever Chicago lacks for wide receivers, Marquess Wilson finds a way to help out. He only collected four balls in Week 11 against Denver but he stretched them for 102 yards, no small feat against a tough Broncos secondary. If Alshon Jeffery and / or Eddie Royal continue to miss game,s Wilson has solid spot starter fantasy appeal.
- Cecil Shorts, WR, Texans ($101): Cecil Shorts did well against his former club as a multi-dimensional contributor. He had four carries and two catches for 77 total yards, and he added a touchdown pass on a trick play. Shorts looks to be the WR2 for Houston going forwards, making him a WR3/flex option.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Cody Latimer, WR, Broncos ($99): Last week I said that I was “playing a hunch” on Latimer, and I was right as he did find the end zone for Brock Osweiler late in the victory over the Bears. Latimer could get more snaps and targets going forward as I think Osweiler will start for a while in Denver.
- Crockett Gillmore, TE, Ravens ($95, $124 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Gillmore saw more action in Week 11 (5-101 receiving) but that was before Joe Flacco tore his knee up. . With both Flacco and Justin Forsett done for the year, all Ravens should be benched as there is very little upside left for this offense.
- Matt Schaub, QB, Ravens ($75): Joe Flacco tore his ACL (and likely his MCL) and will now be done for the year. Baltimore’s offense is a mess – I would pass on Schaub as a pickup, even though he should start the rest of the season.
- Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($55): Philip Rivers has been having a great season as a passer, but his targets are fading fast. Keenan Allen is done for the year, Ladarius Green is hurt and Malcom Floyd remains injured. San Diego was putting any receivers that they had left on the field (literally) in Week 10 and they turned to Inman as one of their starters for Week 11. Inman responded with a modest 3-51 performance, but he does have WR/flex upside if he remains a starter.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
