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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This is not a great week for waiver wires, so I went on to dig pretty deep. With six teams on a bye week and a few coming back, it is tricky to find value right now. Harvesting from teams that are taking Week 8 off is a good plan to get ahead of your league for Week 9 and beyond.
Week 9 Comment: You might be running out of time and money at this point of the season. The year is half over, so grab some potential values while you still can. Most of the byes will be behind us after Monday, so start planning for the rest of the fantasy regular season and the playoffs now.
Week 10 Comment: Just a few more weeks of byes and fantasy regular season. Get the players you want now with whatever money you have, and start getting a roster ready for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: You are running out of time for the fantasy football regular season, and to make moves. Bid now, get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 11 of the 2016 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Kenny Britt, WR, Rams ($243): I am going to assume Britt is owned in most leagues, but if not, fix that as he broke 100 yards again in Week 10. The Rams are not very good, but Britt keeps putting up WR2 numbers.
- Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs ($223): Tyreek Hill has crazy speed, but now that he is firmly in the starting lineup he is a must own wide receiver. He had 13 targets last week against Carolina, catching 10 for 89 yards, but he can break any reception for a touchdown. Did I mention he is playing Tampa Bay this week?
- Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers ($201): If Doug Martin was dropped in your league, the time may have passed to grab him as he is now back in action and also scored a touchdown against Chicago in Week 10. Don’t worry about the numbers, it was his first game back – grab a feature back whenever you can.
- Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans ($177): Mariota was the top quarterback to pick up last week, and wow did he pay off. If he is still available, he will cost a lot more this week but he does have Indianapolis on Sunday, so he could very well be worth starting once again.
- Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers ($155): Tampa Bay has no running game and a terrible defense, but the Bears are even worse and turned the ball over a ton on Sunday. Winston had a slow start but he helped Tampa Bay build up a big lead so much that late in the game he was resting in part of the fourth quarter. Even with that slow start and some time off, he still was able to throw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. He is a must own, especially with the Saints looming in Weeks 14 and 16.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- C.J. Prosise, RB, Seahawks ($144): Prosise led the backfield for the Seahawks against New England in Week 10, and he looked very quick to the hole and to the corner for Seattle. His numbers were good (17-66 rushing, 7-87 receiving) but he had some negatives too. Prosise struggled near the goal line, and he is rather small and looks like he could get hurt at any moment, plus Thomas Rawls is due back to action this week. I would not bid very high on him. I see the Seattle backfield as a committee waiting to happen, and if Russell Wilson has more mobility, he may be throwing more than handing off. Rawls would be the top back to kill clock with a lead as well.
- Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers ($143, $177 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Jamies Winston is doing everything he can to make Cameron Brate again (sorry couldn’t resist – a favorite of the Red Zone channel). Brate had seven more catches for 84 yards and a score, and he is arguably the second best target after Mike Evans for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has a tougher schedule for the next few weeks, but matchups with New Orleans in Weeks 14 and 16 are waiting for him to be utilized.
- Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks ($139): Even with Christine Michael and C.J. Prosise healthy last week (and Prosise having a career night), Seattle cannot wait to get Rawls back in action. I see the backfield as a full timeshare with all three, but Rawls as the lead with Prosise as the third down back. Rawls is worth owning the most, as he will be the lead clock killer when Seattle has a lead.
- Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles ($134): If someone released or overlooked Ryan Mathews in your league, correct that mistake. Even though the Eagles are giving more snaps to Darren Sproles, there will be contests where Philadelphia wants to run the ball in a more traditional way to keep the opposing offense on the sideline (such as Green Bay, perhaps). Mathews is a RB1 in certain matchups – but the challenge is clearly figuring out which ones they will be.
- Martellus Bennett, TE, Patriots ($117, $131 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Bennett has had an up and down year, but if Rob Gronkowski (chest) is out for any duration of time, Bennett instantly becomes a TE1. If by chance he is available, grab him as one of the top tight ends in the marketplace.
- Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants ($113): Victor Cruz was knocked out of the game in Week 9, which opened the door for more targets for rookie Sterling Shepard. Shepard stepped up, catching three of six targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. Then on Monday Night Football against Cincinnati, Shepard scored again as part of his 5-42-1 performance on seven more chances. The rookie is a WR3 if Cruz continues to miss more time, but even with Cruz back I expect Shepard to see more action. No team in the NFL lines up in 3-WR formations more than the Giants (about 95% of snaps).
- Willie Snead, WR, Saints ($113): Did we forget about this guy? If your league did, snatch him up for sure as every wide receiver is always in play for New Orleans. Drew Brees can throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns any given week, and more often than not Snead’s big Sunday (5-47-2) just shows that the Saints receivers are highly touchdown dependent since Brees spreads the wealth, but the wealth is there to be had.
- James Starks, RB, Packers ($112): I said before that if Starks was healthy enough, he would become the lead back for the Packers, plain and simple. Well, he had 55 snaps and 10 touches in Week 10 (7-33 rushing, 3-11-1 receiving) to be the top rushing option for Green Bay. He is not 100% and does not look as quick as he once was, but he is still their best option. I will certainly take a lead back on the waiver wire whenever and wherever I can find one, but certainly one that lines up behind Aaron Rodgers.
- Rob Kelley, RB, Washington ($108): Overall I am not a fan of the Washington run game, but for now it looks like Rob Kelley is ahead of Matt Jones. Jones was a healthy scratch in Week 10 and that may continue the rest of the way. Kelley is more of a plodder than a speedster, but when you get 97 yards on 22 carries against the Vikings, you must be doing something right. Kelly still has tough matchups the next several weeks (Green Bay, Dallas, Arizona) so do not expect much more than RB2 production at best from any lead back in Washington.
- Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles ($107, $115 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): If Ertz is on the waiver wire for some reason, fix that. He has 15 targets the past two weeks and had a respectable 6-55 performance against Atlanta in a game where the run offense was emphasized by the Eagles. Ertz is a solid TE2 with upside.
- Zach Miller, TE, Bears ($107, $121 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): The Bears are not very good, but viable targets are dropping like flies in the Windy City. Eddie Royal and Cameron Meredith are your starting wideouts the next four weeks, and Jay Cutler is the quarterback – so why recommend Zach Miller? Despite all rumors, Chicago is still going to play out their schedule, and Miller has been a target hog for the past five weeks (8, 10, 5, 10 and 7) including 17 the past two weeks with Cutler. Someone has to catch the ball, and it could certainly be Miller. Chicago has great matchups in Weeks 13-16 (San Francisco, Detroit, Green Bay and Washington) so he could be a TE1 for all of December.
- Cameron Meredith, WR, Bears ($106): Meredith is back in the mix on the waiver wire, after being a pickup earlier this season (and then probably cut) – but with Alshon Jeffery’s four game suspension coming down this week, Meredith leaps back into fantasy relevancy. He and Eddie Royal are probably going to be the starters, and Jay Cutler is still their quarterback – so do not go to crazy here.
- Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans ($105): As long as Marcus Mariota stays hot, Matthews will be worth a roster spot. He caught another touchdown against Green Bay despite getting just five targets and three catches, but touchdowns are the big play you want in your lineup whenever you can get them. Right that hot hand.
- Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens ($104): Yes, this is indeed a recording – but Dixon finally got some meaningful touches against the Browns last Thursday night. Dixon rushed for 38 yards on just six carries and added 42 more yards with five receptions. Terrance West is still the lead back, but not by a lot. West outsnapped Dixon 34-26, so it is close. Throw in that Dixon lost a 17 yard carry due to a penalty and I can see a path for Dixon to be starting and getting the bulk of the work in the second half of the season for Baltimore.
- Eddie Royal, WR, Bears ($103): The value of Eddie Royal at this point is hard to gauge. On the one hand, he is probably starting now opposite of Cameron Meredith with Alshon Jeffery’s four game suspension coming down this week, but there are several downsides. First, Chicago is not very good, and secondly Jay Cutler is still their quarterback, and he just had (another) epic meltdown last week. The Bears face the Giants, Titans, 49ers and Lions over the next four weeks, so there is upside – if Cutler can deliver catchable balls.
- Robby Anderson, WR, Jets ($101): I keep writing him up every week, but he deserves the attention. Last week he led the Jets in receiving again with three catches and 69 yards. Young wide receivers often have a rapport with young quarterbacks as they often practice together, so I like Anderson and Bryce Petty may already have a connection. Snap him up.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flyer pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Devante Parker, WR, Dolphins ($97): Parker caught five of eight targets for more than 100 yards in Week 10 against the Chargers, and he also lost another 41-yard reception due to a penalty. The Dolphins have a few favorable matchups the rest of the way for their passing game, so Parker is a solid WR3/flex option with upside.
- Derrick Henry, RB, Titans ($89): Henry was supposed to be out last week but he did play sparingly (19 snaps, 9-31 rushing). If someone in your league gave up on him too soon, grab him as he has value even as DeMarco Murray’s understudy.
- Bilal Powell, RB, Jets ($86): Powell continues to contribute as the second running back option for the Jets. With New York starting Bryce Petty, Powell supported the young quarterback with 89 yards on just 11 touches, and he scored on a hook-and-lateral near the goal line. Powell is a solid flex option with upside.
- Will Tye, TE, Giants ($85, $91 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): The Giants need some receiving help beyond Odell Beckham Jr, and swapping Will Tye ahead of Larry Donnell may be a step in the right direction. Tye stepped up again on Monday Night Football, catching five of eight targets for 53 yards against Cincinnati.Tye had an ugly drop on one of those targets and also lost chances to rookie TE Jerell Adams, but Tye has the bulk of the workload. He is more of a TE2 but does have a good Week 12 matchup against Chicago.
- Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills ($81): Rex Ryan is hoping his star wide receiver can return this season. If you can get him and stash him in the hopes he can play in December, Buffalo has some choice matchups for the fantasy playoffs (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Miami). He is worth that gamble if you can afford it.
- Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($80): San Diego is running out of wide receivers with Travis Benjamin out, but Inman continues to step up and deliver. Inman converted nine targets into a respectable 5-43 day, and he continues to lead San Diego in snaps at wide receiver. Even with the Chargers off this week, he is worth stashing.
- Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington ($78): Garcon is just a possession receiver at this stage of his career, but he will get more action when DeSean Jackson is injured. Garcon caught six of 10 targets for 81 yards in Week 10 and has a plus matchup against Green Bay in Week 11, but does not offer much more than WR3 value.
- Julius Thomas, TE, Jaguars ($77, $83 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Jacksonville is reinventing their offense, and they are working in the tight end more and more. Thomas had six catches for 24 yards but did score in Week 10, and now he gets everyone’s favorite opponent for tight ends this week with a trip to Detroit.
- Jeremy Kerley, WR, 49ers ($77): Kerley had his best performance since Colin Kaepernick stepped in as the starter, collecting all seven targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. While Quinton Patton is getting a few more targets, Kerley is being more productive with those chances. He is worth rostering only in deep leagues, however, with bye weeks nearly behind us.
- Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers ($76): Kaepernick had a very respectable performance against a tough Cardinals team, and he is firmly in the QB2 discussion. He did demonstrate that he deserves to be the starter for the 49ers, but his fantasy value is only in perfect matchups. The good news is that he has a few the rest of the way (Tampa Bay in Week 12, and possibly Green Bay in Week 14) so he is in the QB2 with upside mix.
- Eli Rogers, WR, Steelers ($75): Pittsburgh is running dangerously low on receivers, so Rogers has solid value if only for his snaps and targets. He probably is not seeing enough chances to be a fantasy starter yet, but he is worthy of a roster spot and emergency lineup usage.
- Jesse James, TE, Steelers ($73, $77 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Jesse James caught all four of his targets for 59 yards and nearly pulled in a two-pointer as well, but that is not the reason I want to call him out. First, he faces Cleveland in Week 11, and secondly he outsnapped Ladarius Green by a wide margin against Dallas on Sunday, 52-12. That makes James a sneaky tight end streaming option this week for a team thin at wide receiver. Damien Williams, RB, Dolphins ($73): Three touches, 20 yards and two scores. Not bad for Jay Ajayi’s backup. Touchdowns are tough to predict, but goal line touches are important to notice. This is not a fluke as he has four scores in the past four weeks.
- Ryan Tannehill, WR, Dolphins ($67): Finding quarterback help this late in the year can be tough, but Tannehill has three good matchups coming on the schedule – San Francisco (Week 12), the Jets (Week 15) and the Bills (Week 16). Not a bad idea to grab him and hold him as your QB2 for the playoffs and Week 12.
- Kapri Bibbs, RB, Broncos ($57): There was a lot of speculation about Bibbs getting more snaps ahead of Devontae Booker, but it did not happen against New Orleans. That does not mean it will not happen, but what we do know is that Bibbs is the backup to Booker and that alone makes him worth owning. Grab him on the cheap and hope for the upside to pay off.
- Akeem Hunt, RB, Texans ($55): Sleeper alert here, as the Texans just signed him and he instantly became fantasy relevant after a few injuries opened up the chance for him to play. Hunt had 52 yards on just eight carries (and 30 called back on a holding call). With Lamar Miller’s shoulder issue still bothering him, Hunt is worth a gamble.
- T.J. Lockett, WR, Seahawks ($54): Lockett caught half of his six targets for 73 yards, but he is just not in the mix enough consistently to be used in a lineup at this point. He is worth rostering in deeper leagues, especially with kick return upside, but for now he should be on most waiver wires.
- Vernon Davis, TE, Washington ($52, $55 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Even with Jordan Reed in action, Davis still continues to see targets from Kirk Cousins. Davis scored on a wide open 38-yard catch to highlight his 3-66-1 day, and now he gets to face Green Bay that could not stop anyone from Tennessee. He makes for a reasonable TE2 option with upside this week. .
- Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots ($47): Anyone remember him? Placed on the IR before Week 1, Lewis is getting healthier and is eligible to play now. Considering his ADP back on August 29th (which was even higher on August 1st), Lewis is definitely stashing on your roster (and on IR, if you have it). He was a healthy scratch in Week 10, but this could be the last chance to get him on the cheap.
- Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Panthers ($45): I am not saying to get Ted Ginn Jr, but I will point out he has had five catches in four straight games. He is worth consideration for a roster spot in deep PPR leagues, and he does face the Saints this Thursday night.
- Benny Cunningham, RB, Rams ($44): Cunningham had nine touches and 47 total yards against the Jets, but the bigger takeaway is that he looked decent and is the backup to Todd Gurley. Bid accordingly.
- Quinton Patton, WR, 49ers ($33): Patton continues to get a lot of targets (nine the past two games) but he is not putting up enough value based on those chances. He is worth rostering only in deep leagues.
- Brett Perriman, WR, Ravens ($32): Perriman led the Ravens in receiving against the Browns with 67 yards, but it came on only three catches (and four targets). While he did find the end zone, Baltimore is not using the young wideout enough for full fantasy relevance. Leave him on the waiver wire in all but the deepest of leagues (but he is worth a keeper or dynasty pickup).
- C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Texans ($31, $34 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): The Texans were without Will Fuller in Week 10, and “C.J.” was the second-most targeted Houston receiving option against Jacksonville. He caught three of five targets for 26 yards, not great numbers, but he does face Oakland this week and has some plus matchups down the road. He is a reasonable TE2 with upside.
- Adam Humphries, WR, Buccaneers ($21): Humphries is nothing special – a possession receiver for a team that has to throw a lot – but points are points. He amassed five catches and 46 yards on Sunday, but you can probably do better.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.