Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This is not a great week for waiver wires, so I went on to dig pretty deep. With six teams on a bye week and a few coming back, it is tricky to find value right now. Harvesting from teams that are taking Week 8 off is a good plan to get ahead of your league for Week 9 and beyond.
Week 9 Comment: You might be running out of time and money at this point of the season. The year is half over, so grab some potential values while you still can. Most of the byes will be behind us after Monday, so start planning for the rest of the fantasy regular season and the playoffs now.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 9 of the 2016 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
Note - It is getting harder to find true starters, but I am assuming that the following players are owned. If not, go get them:
- Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins ($315)
- J.J. Nelson, WR, Cardinals ($203): Arizona grew weary of the drops from Michael Floyd and promoted Nelson to the starting lineup, so he will be one of the hotter pickups for the week. His two touchdown performance on Sunday against Carolina is going to draw the attention of most everyone in fantasy leagues, so be prepared to pay up if you want him. The good news is that Arizona is off in Week 9, so maybe people will shy away if they do not have roster room to wait through the bye week.
- Davante Adams, WR, Packers ($202): Adams got a big bump in value again in Week 8 with both Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb sidelined. Adams ended up with 12 receptions but just 74 yards, making him a big value in PPR leagues but a marginal WR3/flex option in lesser scoring leagues. As long as Cobb or Montgomery are questionable, Adams retains WR3/flex value as a viable target for Aaron Rodgers.
- Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals ($173, $229 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): He’s ba-ack! Tyler Eifert put up a very strong showing in Week 8 against Washington, racking up over 100 yards with a score on nine receptions. I think the timeline to ease him back in is over, and he immediately becomes the second target in the Cincinnati passing game. If by some chance he is still available, snap him up quickly.
- Theo Riddick, RB, Lions ($167): Detroit got Riddick back in Week 8, and he was an immediate contributor on the ground (11-56) and through the air (8-77-1 on 11 targets). If he is on your waiver wire, grab him quickly.
- Derrick Henry, RB, Titans ($154): Odds are that someone in your league already has Henry, but if not, the rookie rusher has a ton of value even if DeMarco Murray remains healthy. Tennessee wants to run as often as possible, and Henry and McCoy are both valuable assets when the Titans have a lead or are in a close contest.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles ($143): If you did not see Sunday Night Football, it was rather apparent that Philadelphia is giving way more of the running back work to Darren Sproles than any other back for the Eagles. Sproles has never been considered an every down back, but he saw the vast majority of snaps and touches in Week 8, and that could be the plan for Philadelphia the rest of the way. Sproles is now in the RB2 conversation and should be on a roster in most league formats.
- Mohamed Sanu, WR, Falcons ($138): Sanu is producing now as the WR2 for the Falcons, and he is getting consistent targets (30 in the last four contests). With two touchdowns in the past three games, Sanu is definitely on the radar for a Week 9 start against the Buccaneers.
- Mike Gillislee, RB, Bills ($132): I assume he is not available, but if Gillislee is, pick him up and consider using him against Seattle in Week 9, as there are six teams on a bye and starters are at a premium. Buffalo is likely to (finally) do the right thing and rest LeSean McCoy through their Week 10 bye.
- Charcandrick West, RB, Chiefs ($117): West is a tough one this week, because he really is the third option for the Kansas City backfield. With Spencer Ware (concussion) injured and Jamaal Charles (knee) not 100%, West could be starting this week against Jacksonville – or could be on the bench. He posted respectable numbers against the Colts (14-52 rushing, 2-8 receiving) but if he starts he becomes a solid RB2 play for Week 9.
- Rob Kelley, RB, Washington ($115): With Matt Jones sidelined, Washington gave the lead back duties to Kelley, who delivered a solid stat line (21-87-1) against Cincinnati. Jones and the rest of the team gets two weeks to rest up as they fly back from London and enjoy their bye week, but Kelley deserves to be added to rosters as he could maintain the lead role with Jones both banged up and experiencing fumblitis.
- Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots ($103): Tom Brady has a deep threat by the name of Chris Hogan now, who is averaging over 20 yards a catch on the season. That’s a great number, but it screams “boom / bust” player. He is great for a best ball league, as his 4-91-1 numbers against Buffalo were great – but he only had four targets. He could wind up being a very low scoring WR3 about half the time, so be careful.
- Quincy Enunwa, WR, Jets ($102): Enunwa continues to step up for the Jets, leading the way in Week 8 with 11 targets against Cleveland. Enunwa only pulled down four of the targets, but did rack up 93 yards and a touchdown in the victory for New York. He has a plus matchup in Week 9 against Miami and deserves WR3/flex consideration.
- Corey Coleman, WR, Browns ($101): Coleman has been cleared to practice, and the rookie could step right back in for the Browns as their second starting receiver. He has the talent the Browns often have to throw when they trail on the scoreboard, so it comes down to how good the quarterback play is for Coleman to meet WR3/flex value.
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Tim Hightower, RB, Saints ($98): Before you have to go check, yes, Tim Hightower is still in the NFL. Honest – I saw him play last week, and he actually looked respectable on many touches, but he failed to find the end zone despite four carries and a target near the goal line. The coaching staff was clearly sending a message to Mark Ingram, who fumbled early and never saw the field after the miscue. Both backs are valuable this week against San Francisco, but it is a question mark as to which one is worth more. Odds are that against the 49ers, the worst team against the run by far in the NFL, both backs will find the end zone.
- Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons ($97, $105 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Jacob Tamme is already out for Thursday Night Football in Week 9, which means rookie Austin Hooper is in line for his first official start. Hooper has played well in limited action this season, and he stepped up nicely when Tamme went down in Week 8 in the first quarter, catching all five of his targets for 41 yards. A solid game this week could put him ahead of Tamme on the depth chart the rest of the season, so Hooper makes for a nice pickup with some upside this week.
- Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars ($95): Jacksonville continues to throw early and often every week with a virtually nonexistent ground game and a weak defensive unit that results in the team trailing often on the scoreboard. The question has been if Hurns was the WR2 for the team, but his 11 targets last week seems to have answered that question. He makes for a solid WR2/3 option in PPR leagues with some good matchups ahead in the second half of the year.
- Jay Cutler, QB, Bears ($97): Chicago looks like a much better team with Cutler under center, and the Bears have some solid matchups after their Week 9 bye. Grabbing Cutler for your QB2 now and as a spot starter is a prudent move.
- Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs ($88): Very quietly, Tyreek Hill has emerged for the Chiefs as their possible WR2. Hill is making the most of his limited snaps, scoring touchdowns the past two weeks including a strong 5-98-1 line against Indianapolis in Week 8. Chris Conley is ineffective, so look for Hill to get more chances.
- Bilal Powell, RB, Jets ($83): Apparently Powell has recovered from his turf toe issue, as he rushed for 76 yards and a score against Cleveland in Week 8. He is still firmly behind Matt Forte, but Powell has solid upside as a handcuff.
- James Starks, RB, Packers ($77): This one is all about reading the tea leaves. Green Bay is saying that they are going to get the run game going, but with who? Knile Davis was just released and Ty Montgomery is dealing with a sickle cell issue, so who is left? My take is that Starks could be coming back soon, and he has been a solid lead back in the past. Take a shot on him now on the cheap.
- Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots ($67): Anyone remember him? Placed on the IR before Week 1, Lewis is getting healthier and is eligible to play now. Considering his ADP back on August 29th (which was even higher on August 1st), Lewis is definitely stashing on your roster (and on IR, if you have it). This is going to be the last time to grab him, as New England enters the bye and could bring him back for Week 10.
- C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Texans ($57, $59 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Last week everyone was talking up “C.J.”, and he paid off nicely with a touchdown catch despite only 43 yards receiving. His value is not totally exhausted just yet, as Brock Osweiler still likes to target the tight end. If you need a backup option, you can get him very cheaply with the Texans off this week.
- Adam Humphries, WR, Buccaneers ($55): The Buccaneers are much more likely to be throwing now with both Doug Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers banged up. Humphries saw four targets for a 3-58 day in Week 8, which is hardly stellar, but could be a sign of more targets to come. Humphries was on the field more than Russell Shepard by almost 2:1 in snaps (48 to 26), a sign that Humphries is more of the WR2 than Shepard.
- C.J. Prosise, RB, Seahawks ($54): Prosise did not see a ton of work against the Saints in Week 8, but he produced on the few chances that he had. He was given one series and ended the day with eight touches (4-23 rushing, 4-80 receiving) including a long reception on a gimmick wide receiver pass. The takeaway here is that, for now, Prosise is the understudy to Christine Michael and deserves at least handcuff consideration.
- Ladarius Green, TE, Steelers ($47, $57 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Pittsburgh may be getting Green back to action after their bye week, and he was the starter ahead of Jesse James before Green was injured. Pittsburgh is a high-powered offense when it is firing on all cylinders, so grabbing Green now as a cheap piece of that offense is not a bad option at all.
- Russell Shepard, WR, Buccaneers ($46): Tampa Bay is going to have to throw the ball more now with both Doug Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers injured. Shepard is the WR3 to Adam Humphries’ WR2 status, but Shepard has still scored a touchdown in the past two contests. Both are viable flex options.
- Antone Smith, RB, Buccaneers ($45): Tampa Bay plays on a short week and has to go to a committee backfield with Doug Martin still not ready and now Jacquizz Rodgers in a walking boot. That leaves Antone Smith and Peyton Barber. Smith outsnapped Barber 22-3 in Week 8 and is a better receiver, while Barber is the more physical runner. Smith would be better owned in a PPR league, while Barber is the better option in goal line situations.
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Eagles ($43): Philadelphia is throwing the ball often, just not very far down the field. That is limiting the upside of their wide receivers, but Green-Beckham has at least four targets in the past four games and had nine against Dallas on Sunday Night Football. While he is not consistent enough to crack a fantasy starting lineup, any receiver getting lots of snaps and targets deserves to be on the watch list or on a very deep bench.
- Virgil Green, TE, Broncos ($41, $49 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): The Broncos do not use the tight end very much in their passing game, but if you want to roll the dice and stash their best receiving option at the position in very deep leagues, I would understand. Green posted a respectable (4-55) stat line against San Diego, but odds are you can find a better tight end.
- Kapri Bibbs, RB, Broncos ($38, $45 if you own Devontae Booker): Denver is a run first team, and now that C.J. Anderson is on injured reserve, it is all about Devontae Booker – unless he gets hurt as well. Booker is already getting his shoulder examined this week, and we saw that Bibbs was his understudy. If you want to grab the backup to Booker, here he is.
- Peyton Barber, RB, Buccaneers ($37): Tampa Bay plays on a short week and has to go to a committee backfield with Doug Martin still not ready and now Jacquizz Rodgers in a walking boot. That leaves Antone Smith and Peyton Barber. Smith outsnapped Barber 22-3 in Week 8 and is a better receiver, while Barber is the more physical runner. Smith would be better owned in a PPR league, while Barber is the better option in goal line situations.
- Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Panthers ($34): If you are feeling lucky, make a bid on Ted Ginn Jr, who was the second-best receiver for Carolina in Week 8 (5-53 on six targets). He remains very unpredictable and inconsistent every week, so don’t say I didn’t warn you if you pick him up and use him. His fantasy floor rhymes with “hero”.
- Jeff Janis, WR, Packers ($33): Until some guys get healthy for Aaron Rodgers to target, backups like Jeff Janis will have some value. Janis played nearly every snap for Green Bay in Week 8, so he definitely warrants consideration with all the injuries on offense. Don’t bid too much, however, as their shelf life is pretty short.
- Vernon Davis, TE, Washington ($32, $44 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Even though Jordan Reed was back to action, Davis still saw plenty of work in Week 8 against the Bengals. Davis had nearly 100 yards (5-93), and Kirk Cousins is not getting a ton of time to get rid of the ball deep, which only adds more chances for the tight ends. Grab him now on the cheap with Washington on their bye.
- Terron Ward, RB, Falcons ($29): Ward was the RB2 to Devonta Freeman’s clear RB1 role in Week 8, but with Tevin Coleman sidelined he had some minimal value. Ward is only worth using if both backs ahead of him get banged up.
- Robby Anderson, WR, Jets ($27): The sleeper continues to catch passes as the WR3 for the Jets, this time collecting three of six targets for 31 yards against Cleveland in Week 8. He deserves roster consideration in deep leagues or for owners desperate for wide receiver help on their bye weeks. The Jets and Anderson have a plus matchup against Miami in Week 9.
- Alfred Blue, RB, Texans ($25): Blue only has value if Lamar Miller misses time. He is the epitome of a handcuff. Bid accordingly.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.