Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 tip – Talk about injuries! This week could be the most impactful and volatile week on the waiver wire. Every position had at least one major star succumb to injury, so everyone is likely to be diving into the free agent pool for some help – or even just some warm bodies. Do not overbid too hard as the fantasy regular season has just 5-7 games left, but if you have big bucks and want to boost your squad, now might be the time to spend a lot of that cash.
Week 9 tip – Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 9 of the 2013 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys ($355): Odds are that Williams is on a fantasy roster already, but if not, snap up the real second wide receiver in Dallas.
- Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons ($277): If Douglas is still out there, first off, that’s amazing – but secondly, snap him up and don’t look back. Douglas is the top wide receiver for Atlanta until Roddy White returns, and he is at worst a fantasy WR3 going forward every week.
- Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals ($254): Jones may not be on your waiver wire, but if he is, bid big on him. There’s next to no chance that he has a four-touchdown game again this year (or the rest of his career), but there is no denying that Andy Dalton looks his way in the Red Zone.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals ($153): Ellington is explosive – yet Bruce Arians feels he cannot play more snaps. I just don’t get it – but Ellington is still a very valuable and underrated fantasy option. Even if he only gets 12-15 touches a week, that still makes Ellington the best Arizona running back to own by a mile, and offers RB2/flex value going forward, especially in PPR leagues.
- Tim Wright, TE, Buccaneers ($151, 225 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Mike Williams is done for the year and the Buccaneers need receivers. Greg Schiano knows Wright from Rutgers, and Wright is a fantastic move tight end and is a strong candidate to get a lot of targets as a possible WR2-type tight end.
- Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons ($147): Jackson is back and was minimized only because Atlanta fell behind on the scoreboard. If he is available, grab him quickly.
- Andre Brown, RB, Giants ($146): This is the last chance to get Brown at a relatively cheap price. Big Blue is terrible right now at the ground attack, and Brown cannot get healthy / active soon enough. Brown should hit the ground running and be the featured back in Week 10.
- Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals ($145): Three weeks in a row with over 300 yards passing and three or more touchdown passes – yeah, I think he is worth adding to your roster. With some good matchups left the rest of the season, Dalton is a strong QB2 with great QB1 upside and is a top option if you have injury concerns at quarterback.
- Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers ($133): The Pittsburgh defense is ailing, aging and failing to live up to its historical highs, which means that Pittsburgh has to throw a lot the rest of the year. Sanders will see the second-most looks after Antonio Brown, which will give him plenty of chances each week to put up a Top 25 fantasy score, especially in PPR leagues.
- Jake Locker, QB, Titans ($125): Don’t forget about a good quarterback coming off of a bye week. Tennessee has a soft schedule and capable wide receivers (plus not much action from the ground game), so Locker is a strong QB2 with QB1 weekly upside in good matchups.
- Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers ($122): Frank Gore is having a great season, and Hunter is his direct backup. When the 49ers get a sizeable lead and decide to rest Gore, Hunter takes over and is productive later in contests. That should continue with several games left on the season that could be one-sided affairs, plus Hunter has huge handcuff value if Gore gets injured.
- Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots ($115): If you are nearly a lock for the playoffs in your league and are looking for a good option at tailback that can offer explosive upside, grab Shane Vereen and cross your fingers that he becomes a big part of New England’s late season offense. Knowing how New England wants to kick the offense into a higher gear later in the year, I love Vereen as a playoff upside play.
- Case Keenum, QB, Texans ($113): Matt Schaub is closer to “healthy scratch” than an injured quarterback being replaced, but the bottom line is that the Houston passing game is better with Keenum under center. Adding to his value is that the Texans are really ailing at the tailback spot, which means more passing attempts over the next few weeks, which include contests against Oakland and Jacksonville twice over the next six weeks.
- Terrelle Pryor, QB, Raiders ($112): Take away Pryor’s long run against Pittsburgh and he did not have much of a fantasy day, but a 93-yard touchdown run can work wonders for fantasy value. So can a matchup in Week 9 against the Eagles.
- Lance Moore, WR, Saints ($111): Moore usually has more fantasy value when one of the fantasy stars in banged up in New Orleans, and that was evident in Week 8 when Moore scored but had just three catches. Moore has boom/bust appeal with Drew Brees usually looking at Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles and now Kenny Stills as the top four options.
- Montee Ball, RB, Broncos ($105): Rumor has it that Denver will start to spread the wealth at running back to rest Knowshon Moreno and get both Ball and Anderson some work. That gives both backups some value, but I want to see it to believe it – but any Bronco who touches the ball has fantasy upside and is worth a roster spot.
- Jason Campbell, QB, Browns ($103): Let’s not overlook the value of a capable quarterback in Cleveland right now. With a strong tight end in Jordan Cameron and a true top end wideout in Josh Gordon, Campbell has two targets that can find the end zone every week. Cleveland often trails on the scoreboard, forcing their passer to throw, and Campbell does not throw many interceptions. That’s a great QB2 with QB1 upside for me.
- Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams ($102): This pickup is very dependent upon how hurt Zac Stacy is after a late injury on Monday Night Football. Stacy has a lock on the lead role (and played well against a tough Seattle defense), and the Rams have yet to score a rushing touchdown, but lead tailbacks have fantasy value regardless of what team they suit up for.
- Nate Burleson, WR, Lions ($101): Sneaky pickup of the week here at wide receiver (Andre Brown and Shane Vereen are the running backs). Burleson is due back for Detroit and will start right away for a Lions’ offense that loves to throw as much as possible.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Kenny Stills, WR, Saints ($97): Kenny Stills is getting some key targets from Drew Brees, and he is converting those chances into big, explosive plays. That’s the upside. The downside is that Stills only sees a few targets a week (usually under five) and is an extreme boom/bust option. Do not count on him for weekly fantasy lineups, but he does have great best ball league appeal or a desperation start.
- Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots ($95): Dobson is getting more targets and snaps ahead of Kenbrell Thompson and Dobson scored a Week 8 touchdown, but the targets are not enough to warrant an every week start. He is rosterable since he does play for Tom Brady, but do not spend much here.
- David Nelson, WR, Jets ($88): If Nelson is healthy (he was slightly injured at the end of the blowout in Cincinnati), he has great PPR upside as he is catching a ton of targets from Geno Smith.
- C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos ($85): See Montee Ball for reasons, but pay a little less.
- James Starks, RB, Packers ($80): Starks looked good against Minnesota in relief of Eddie Lacy, but Lacy is the clear feature tailback in Green Bay. Lacy does not have a history of staying healthy for a long time and Green Bay has to run the ball with limited receiver options (and a desire to establish the run this year), so Starks has some roster appeal, especially for Lacy owners.
- Kris Durham, WR, Lions ($77): Durham appears to be the WR2 with Ryan Broyles done for the year (again), but Nate Burleson is due back after Detroit’s Week 9 bye. I would rather have Burleson than Durham, but both have value in a very pass-happy offense.
- Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots ($75): Bolden has fantasy value until Shane Vereen pushes him down the depth chart and to the sideline.
- James Stewart, RB, Panthers ($71): Carolina loves to run the ball, and Stewart could be a factor very soon for the Panthers. Stewart has injury risk and depth chart risk though, so do not bid too much here on a risky pickup.
- Benny Cunningham, RB, Rams ($55): Similar to Daryl Richardson, but he was a healthy scratch in Week 8 and is the third RB on the St. Louis depth chart.
- Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams ($35): Similar to Daryl Richardson, but he was a healthy scratch in Week 8 and is the fourth RB on the St. Louis depth chart.
- Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers ($33): Similar to the story with Emmanuel Sanders, but Wheaton had been pushing Sanders for playing time before breaking his finger. Wheaton could be back soon and pick up where he left off – as an explosive third wideout who could press Sanders for playing time and targets.
- Tiquan Underwood, WR, Buccaneers ($25): Mike Williams is done for the year and Underwood becomes a starter, but I do not believe that Mike Glennon will look in his direction very often.
- Myles White, WR, Packers ($11): White gets a courtesy mention here as some fantasy players will see his name in the box score for Green Bay from Week 8 – do not fall for that trap. James Jones is coming back soon and White does not off much fantasy upside at all.
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
