Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Denver and Seattle were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: Time for some fantasy self-reflection. If your team is 5-2 or better, you are likely a playoff team and you can start stacking your bench for the playoffs. If you are 3-4 or worse, you have to gamble and get wins, so bid big for any help you can get now.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 8 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos ($525): The top running back in Denver for Peyton Manning just scored another two touchdowns, and he still is on your waiver wire? Really? Expect a bidding war this week.
- Tre Mason, RB, Rams ($521): I warned you last week to get Mason, and now if you didn’t listen, the price of the new starting tailback for the Rams has gone way, way up. Pony up for a RB1 the rest of the way.
- Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots ($415): No Stevan Ridley? No problem, apparently with Shane Vereen. New England run the ball more than you think, and Vereen is a threat as a receiver too.
- Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars ($357): I know that starting tailbacks do not grow on trees, but I have so many issues in trusting Robinson it isn’t funny. The Jaguars are really bad and they cannot score with any consistency, and Robinson is under 200 pounds and is one good hit away from being sidelined for quite a while. I get that you have to take risks for big rewards, but I am not going to do that with him. The price tag is a recommended bid if you really want him, but I would really hesitate to spend so much.
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings ($335): Lost in the news of the Buffalo win was that the Vikings finally have settled on McKinnon as their top rusher. McKinnon had his first career 100-yard game, and there could be more where that came from.
- Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants ($241): Beckham Jr. posted big numbers against Dallas in his first start (replacing Victor Cruz) and he found the end zone twice. He may be a rookie but he has big upside going forward as he looks to have good chemistry with Eli Manning.
- Bryce Brown, RB, Bills ($227): Here’s the deal – I am guessing, just like the rest of you, as to what the Bills are going to do with the run game now that both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are out. Anthony Dixon is not that good, and his meager stats in Week 7 (13-51 rushing, 3-15 receiving) reflect as much. The Bills traded for Bryce Brown with the belief that he could be a feature back, so do not worry that he was not active last week. He would not have seen the field much – if at all – barring two major injuries to Spiller and Jackson (whoops). If you want to gamble on one Bills RB, Bryce Brown is your guy.
- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs ($211, $277 in PPR-bonus leagues): I have a hard time believing that Kelce is still available, but I keep hearing that this is true. Kansas City needs to keep getting him involved in the offense as his receiving skills are very strong. Matchups against St. Louis and the Jets over the next two weeks are big opportunities.
- Jordan Reed, TE, Washington ($207, $291 in PPR-bonus leagues): If somehow Reed fell off the radar in your league, snap him up immediately. Despite quarterback problems in Washington, Reed is a Top 10 tight end every week and should be on a roster – so why not yours?
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks ($190): I like Doug Baldwin, but I am just not sure he can be a true WR1 for an NFL team. Russell Wilson will target him often and he could get solid numbers any given week, but I do not expect a solid Top 25 performance every week. That puts him as a fantasy WR3 with WR2 upside for me.
- Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens ($170, $235 in PPR-bonus leagues): Baltimore is moving the ball more and more via the pass, and the tight end spot is a big part of it. Daniels is on the downside of his career, but he is a smart veteran who can get open 5-7 times a game. He had a big game last week (6-58-1) and he has another great matchup this week against Cincinnati.
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins ($153): Do not laugh – Tannehill looks legit under center in Miami now. He has thrown for two scores in his last three starts, and the guy can run the ball himself. Looking for a poor man’s Russell Wilson? Grab Tannehill if you can, especially with Miami facing Jacksonville in Week 8.
- Chris Ivory, RB, Jets ($145): Ivory looked good against New England, and his upside is even better with Percy Harvin coming to New York.
- Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals ($145): Palmer is back under center for Arizona, and the team looks every bit the part of a contender. Palmer has four solid receivers if you include Andre Ellington, which you should. Palmer is a solid QB2 with QB1 upside in the right matchups.
- Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns ($145): Cleveland wound up playing catch up against Jacksonville (think about that statement for a moment), but after a terrible Week 6 Hawkins stepped back up for his first career 100+ yard game. Hawkins will be used less once Josh Gordon comes back, but worry about that later.
- Kyle Orton, QB, Bills ($135): If you need a quarterback for Week 8, Orton could be just what the doctor ordered. Buffalo just lost their top two rushers and Orton faces the Jets. What more could you ask for? Orton has QB2 validity and QB1 upside against New York this week, and he has been playing very well in Buffalo. You can do far worse if you need a quarterback.
- Stepfan Taylor, RB, Cardinals ($127): Goal line vulturing, pure and simple. Andre Ellington did a ton of heavy lifting to set up Taylor’s two touchdowns. Taylor had just 59 yards on 14 touches, but goal line rushes are worth a big amount in fantasy.
- Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars ($117): Here’s something interesting – Allen Robinson is averaging over eight targets a game since Week 2, and his numbers are getting better. He scored for the first time in his career last week, going 4-60-1 for the Jaguars. I still have issues starting any Jaguars, but Robinson is a solid WR3/flex fantasy option.
- Roddy White, WR, Falcons ($116): Finally White had a decent game, but can he keep that up? Atlanta’s a bad team so the wide receivers should be more productive, but keep him as just a WR4/flex guy until he produces on a more consistent basis.
- Kenny Stills, WR, Saints ($115): Stills finally had a big game last week, but can he keep it up? Great matchup against the Packers in Week 8, but it remains to be seen how many targets he will see once Jimmy Graham is healthy.
- Anthony Dixon, RB, Bills ($115): Here’s the deal – I am guessing, just like the rest of you, as to what the Bills are going to do with the run game now that both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are out. Anthony Dixon is not that good, and his meager stats in Week 7 (13-51 rushing, 3-15 receiving) reflect as much. If you want to gamble on one Bills RB, Bryce Brown is your guy.
- Robert Griffin III III, QB, Washington ($115): Desperation play here, or sneaky one – call it whatever you like, but try and find a QB1 with more upside on the waiver wire. Griffin could be back under center very soon in Washington, and they need all the help they can get in D.C. right now.
- Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans ($109): Just a guess, but I think Sankey could be more productive with Jake Locker back under center. He is worth a roster spot just in case I am right and Sankey starts to produce better fantasy numbers.
- Steve Johnson, WR, 49ers ($105): Stevie Johnson may be the WR3 for San Francisco, but he is getting a solid amount of targets and the production is there. Against Denver Johnson found the end zone again (before garbage time), posting 5-71-1 on seven targets. Colin Kaepernick is looking at Johnson more and more, and he has WR3 fantasy value in passing-favorable matchups. Now is a great time to grab him with the 49ers on a bye.
- Jake Locker, QB, Titans ($105): When all else fails, fall back to Jake Locker. He has good receivers and athletic ability, but how long can we keep saying that about Tennessee? Pick him up as a last resort QB2 or bye week filler.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks ($95): Jermaine Kearse now elevates to the WR2 spot in Seattle, but he is not getting enough looks and he could be pushed for playing time by Paul Richardson Jr. Converting seven targets to just three receptions is not good enough.
- Cooper Helfet, TE, Seahawks ($95, $121 in PPR-bonus leagues): How do you deal with a tight end that comes out of nowhere here? Simple – if you like his upside and see him with longer term value, add him but do not use him. Seattle is figuring out their passing game post-Harvin, and Helfet could be the top receiving tight end for Seattle, a position that has been a fantasy vacuum for the Seahawks.
- Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins ($95, $121 in PPR-bonus leagues): If you are a believer in Ryan Tannehill’s continued improvements, then you have to like Charles Clay. Clay finally found the end zone in Week 7 against the Bears, converting five targets into a 4-58-1 day. Clay can post 4-6 catches and a score most any week, and Week 8’s matchup against Jacksonville could pay off big.
- Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts ($77, $107 in PPR-bonus leagues): I mentioned Allen last week and scored a nice touchdown, but he splits targets with Coby Fleener. Tough call to start either one, but if you need a bye week fill-in then either is a viable option.
- Coby Fleener, TE, Colts ($77, $107 in PPR-bonus leagues): I cannot break a virtual tie between Fleener and Allen. Fleener had one more catch than Allen in Week 7, but both split targets. Tough call to start either one, but if you need a bye week fill-in then either is a viable option.
- Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins ($77): Ryan Tannehill is getting better and better, and Landry is becoming his WR2 over Brian Hartline. Landry just missed a touchdown last week and he is a great pickup for a passing game that continues to improve.
- Brandon LaFell, WR, Dolphins ($74): Tom Brady is looking more comfortable as a passer again, and he seems to like looking at Brandon LaFell on both medium and deep passes. LaFell is more of a boom/bust guy each week, but he deserves a roster spot in deeper leagues.
- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers ($65): Stewart is not a big time lead back candidate, but he is getting the bulk of the work in Carolina. That’s worth something – but not a ton.
- Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals ($61, $77 in PPR-bonus leagues): Do not fall in the trap for Jermaine Gresham’s 10-48 Week 7 performance. Tyler Eifert is the tight end to own for the Bengals, and he is due back soon (IR - designated for return – Week 10). Very sneaky add here that could pay off big down the stretch.
- Gavin Escobar, TE, Cowboys ($56, $67 in PPR-bonus leagues): Escobar is athletic and scored two touchdowns against the Giants, but the consistency is just not there. Jason Witten is still the top tight end, and Tony Romo targets his top two receivers and Witten far more.
- Paul Richardson Jr, WR, Seahawks ($55): Richardson is the WR3 for Seattle and has a lot of talent, but he is very raw. Long term he has great upside, but Baldwin and Kearse are your starters and better fantasy values in Seattle this year.
- Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers ($54): Floyd is a WR3/flex guy, and he keeps making circus catches for Philip Rivers. Use him on bye weeks or in best ball leagues, as his targets are too inconsistent.
- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals ($53, $66 in PPR-bonus leagues): Talk about your PPR traps here – 10 catches and 48 yards? Gresham is an afterthought for Cincinnati and Tyler Eifert is due back soon. That’s who you should grab, not Gresham.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
