Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 tip – Talk about injuries! This week could be the most impactful and volatile week on the waiver wire. Every position had at least one major star succumb to injury, so everyone is likely to be diving into the free agent pool for some help – or even just some warm bodies. Do not overbid too hard as the fantasy regular season has just 5-7 games left, but if you have big bucks and want to boost your squad, now might be the time to spend a lot of that cash.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 8 of the 2013 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Jordan Reed, TE, Washington ($275, 395 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): If you didn’t pick him up last week like I recommended, then you will be paying much, much more for the starting tight end in Washington. Reed posted another strong game last week against the Bears and is pushing for Top 10 tight end status. With injuries across the league at tight end, Reed is a must add if you can get him.
- Zac Stacy, RB, Rams ($233): Stacy should not be on the wire, but if this starting tailback for St. Louis is, scoop him up before other fantasy team owners notice this mistake. His value goes up even more with Sam Bradford done for the year, making St. Louis a run-first team going forward.
- Jarrett Boykin, WR, Packers ($223): The Packers need wide receivers, and every week they seem to lose a viable option for Aaron Rodgers. From James Jones (who could be back soon) to Randall Cobb and now to TE Jermichael Finley, Green Bay needs players. Boykin posted over 100 yards receiving and a score last week and has that type of upside every week going forward until Cobb returns.
- Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys ($221): The torch has been passed from Miles Austin to Terrance Williams. Tony Romo has little at tailback and faces NFC East teams that have terrible pass defenses – so Romo will target Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and Williams 8-10 times a week or more.
- Michael Vick, QB, Eagles ($217): Vick will be the starter in Week 8, even if he is not 100% because Nick Foles is out with a concussion. The starting job in Philadelphia could easily swing back to Vick and stay there the rest of the year, and Vick has Top 10 QB upside every week.
- Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals ($215): If Andy Dalton is still out there, snap him up as he is one of the top QB2s with QB1 upside in fantasy right now. With so many injuries (Cutler, Bradford, Schaub) and uncertainty at the QB position, quality backups are starting to be valued at a premium – as depth and as trade bait. Dalton has a Top 3 wide receiver (A.J. Green), two good tight ends and Giovani Bernard receiving out of the backfield, giving him solid value. Dalton should be owned in all leagues now.
- Coby Fleener, TE, Colts ($205, 295 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Reggie Wayne is done for the year, and Andrew Luck loves to throw – and to throw to tight ends. Fleener feels like a lock for double-digit targets each week going forward.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Chris Ivory, RB, Jets ($185): The average per carry in Week 7 was not good, but over 100 yards and 34 carries against the Patriots spoke volumes about Ivory’s usage going forward. Grab him as a RB2/flex option going forward.
- Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons ($177): With Julio Jones out for the year, targets from Matt Ryan have to go somewhere – and Rodgers is scooping them up. His value could decline when Steven Jackson gets healthy, but for now, roster him and take the chance that Jackson is still out for a while (or grab both for your team).
- Roy Helu, RB, Washington ($166): Washington moved the ball quickly last week in their “turbo” package, which features the mobile and versatile Roy Helu. Alfred Morris is still the main rusher on the squad, but Helu has solid value in a suddenly effective offense.
- Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons ($166): I will admit it – I was wrong on Douglas’ upside. I never saw that kind of performance coming, but then again the Buccaneers are not good on defense now and they chose to shut down Tony Gonzalez in Week 7. That forced Matt Ryan to look elsewhere for players to step up, and Douglas did. I think he can continue, but Douglas will not post 140 yards every week, especially when Roddy White comes back.
- Kendall Wright, WR, Titans ($161): Jake Locker is back at quarterback in Tennessee, and Kendall Wright has become the top receiver for the Titans. Wright does not go deep often, but he moves the chains and collects 4-7 balls a week for 50-75 yards and respectable numbers. While not flashy, Wright is a solid WR3 especially in PPR.
- Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks ($155): This is the last chance you have to get Harvin at a reasonable price, as he is due back any week now. Snap him up if he is still on the waiver wire.
- Peyton Hillis, RB, Giants ($152): Monday Night Football was unwatchable – and part of that was the lack of any real options for the Giants at tailback. Hillis showed value as a receiver and rusher for New York and might be the answer that they need with terrible options right now on the (active) roster.
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins ($151): If you need a quarterback, you can do far worse than Tannehill, who can throw 2-3 touchdowns a week and also has the ability to scramble as well.
- Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots ($148): I have mentioned Vereen before, and will continue to do so until he gets active in Week 11. New England needs playmakers, and Vereen was poised for a big part of the offense before he was injured. The Patriots cannot wait until he can play again, and he is nearly healthy (but cannot play due to IR rules). Grab him and stash him.
- Geno Smith, QB, Jets ($147): Smith has a similar argument in his favor as Andy Dalton, but not quite the same value. Solid Top 20 QB with upside, but the Jets want to run and play defense more. Smith can put up solid numbers for your squad with your top starter on a bye week and offers solid fantasy depth.
- Josh McCown, QB, Bears ($145, $197 or more if you owned Cutler): McCown looked very good in relief of the injured Jay Cutler, and Chicago has a lot of weapons at tailback and wide receiver. Jordan Palmer is going to be signed as a backup and won’t push McCown. Cutler is out for 4+ weeks and the Bears’ defense is not playing well at all (and just lost Lance Briggs) so Chicago will be in shootouts. Grab McCown.
- Ben Tate, RB, Texans ($143): Arian Foster tweaked his hamstring and Matt Schaub is hurt, but Houston is also on a bye and Tate just cracked several ribs – so temper your bid and expectations. Tate deserves a roster spot and has RB2/flex value for certain, so grab him if you have roster room and hope for the upside to materialize.
- Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Colts ($141): Reggie Wayne is done for the year (ACL), which pushes Heyward-Bey into a starting role. Unfortunately, he is not even close to Wayne’s caliber of a receiver. He may now be an NFL starter, but he is not better than a fantasy WR4 going forward.
- Terrelle Pryor, QB, Raiders ($140): Remember what I said about bye week guys falling out of recent mind? If you need a quarterback, you can do far worse than Pryor, who is a double threat as a rusher and a passer.
- Mike James, RB, Buccaneers ($138): Doug Martin is out for at least a week, and many think he is out indefinitely or possibly for the season. That means James is now the starter – but keep in mind the Martin was posting disappointing numbers, and he is much better than James. A starting tailback has value, but James may be at the bottom of that list (and could face challengers for his touches). I have Tate higher on my bid list, for example.
- Jake Locker, QB, Titans ($133): Locker quietly put up solid numbers before his injury, and now he is back under center for Tennessee. The Titans do not rack up a lot of yards or points, but they do throw the ball much more than they run (and Chris Johnson continues to struggle rushing) and Locker has scrambling upside as a rusher too. Solid QB2 with QB1 upside / bye week coverage.
- Andre Brown, RB, Giants ($133): Monday Night Football was unwatchable – and part of that was the lack of any real options for the Giants at tailback. Brown will come back soon and immediately challenge for 15-20 touches a game. If you have a good lead in your fantasy league and/or a roster spot to spare, Brown could be a RB2 for your squad in November and December.
- Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons ($131): If someone in your league gave up on this veteran, go grab him and stash him before he starts playing again – which could be soon.
- Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys ($121): Randle was not too impressive against Philadelphia, but once again, starting tailbacks have value – even if they don’t get the goal line carries. Randle has limited upside and there are better long term pickups, but if you need a back for Week 8, Randle is worth a flex play against Detroit.
- Kris Durham, WR, Lions ($104): Durham has become the second wideout to own for Detroit right now, as Durham has 29 targets, 16 catches, 154 yards and a touchdown over the past three weeks. Matthew Stafford’s college teammate is worth a depth addition.
- Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots ($103): The argument for Bolden is similar to that for Joseph Randle (short term pickup) as Bolden is holding down the fort in the Shane Vereen role. Bolden has coin flip upside to score on a given Sunday, but if you want a flex PPR RB, Bolden is a decent option.
- Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets ($103): Kerley is a solid check down receiver for QB Geno Smith, but his upside is limited. He is not much better than roster / bye week depth.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Garrett Graham, TE, Texans ($95, 125 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Yes, he is on a bye, but if you lost Finley and are desperate for a tight end, Graham should be your fallback option if you cannot get Reed or Fleener.
- Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers ($95): I like Tolbert, especially in touchdown-heavy leagues. He is a vulture with the chance to score every week.
- Donald Brown, RB, Colts ($90): Trent Richardson may be the “starter”, but Brown is getting a lot of usage in the Indianapolis backfield. He’s mostly a flex option but backs that get 10+ touches a week are rosterable.
- Josh Freeman, QB, Vikings ($87): Say what? Did you watch that Monday Night Football debacle against the Giants? Yes I did – and still saw that the coaching staff is “all in” on Freeman, even when he was clearly not ready to start for Minnesota. He will get better – he just has to – and is worth a QB2 type roster spot.
- Mike Brown, WR, Jaguars ($88): Garbage time points count, people. Brown is the WR3 for a Jacksonville team that lives in “catch-up” mode on the scoreboard, and Brown has 169 yards on nine catches the last two weeks.
- Rob Housler, TE, Packers ($85, 115 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): If you lost Finley and are desperate for a tight end, bid on Housler just for garbage time catch value alone – but there are better options.
- Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys ($77): Beasley is a Wes Welker type slot receiver and has great hands. Miles Austin could be shut down soon (and should), opening up WR3 opportunities for Beasley. Dallas has to throw a ton, so Beasley is worth a pickup, especially in PPR leagues.
- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers ($77): Carolina loves to run the ball, and Stewart might be back in Week 9. Keep that in mind if you own DeAngelo Williams or think that Stewart can help you down the stretch. Add with caution because he does have a long injury history.
- Andrew Quarless, TE, Packers ($75, 105 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Jermichael Finley could be done for the year, and Quarless is going to be the starter in his place. With the Packers having injuries at both wideout and tight end, Quarless could see some targets going forward – but do not break the bank for him.
- LaVon Brazill, WR, Colts ($66): Brazill is worth a flier with Reggie Wayne done for the year (ACL). Brazill could be a WR3 with big upside for Andrew Luck, who made Donnie Avery a great fantasy pickup last year in a similar role.
- Case Keenum, QB, Texans ($65): Matt Schaub could be done – for good – with the Texans. Keenum looked very good against the Chiefs last week and almost sparked a big upset of Kansas City on the road for Houston in Keenum’s first career start. That said, Houston will want to run more if they can and the Chiefs had no film on Keenum because he’s never played in the NFL. Keenum may have played his way into another start, but Schaub is hurt and was playing his way onto the bench. Keenum has QB2 value right now, but is a reasonable waiver wire bid as a “safety plan” in case you don’t get another quarterback on the bidding list this week if you need one. Keenum is a great bargain this week, especially with Houston on a bye.
- Ben Watson, TE, Saints ($35, $55 in in TE-PPR bonus leagues): If Jimmy Graham misses time, Watson gets some value here. Clearly not as good as Graham, Watson is just a handcuff for Graham’s owners who might need to make a last minute lineup change.
- Brian Leonard, RB, Buccaneers ($26): Doug Martin is out for at least a week, and many think he is out indefinitely or possibly for the season. That means James is now the starter – but keep in mind the Martin was posting disappointing numbers, and he is much better than James. So why Brian Leonard? Head coach Greg Schiano knows Leonard from Rutgers, and I think Leonard could see more touches and incorporation into the game plan than some might expect.
- Brandon Bostick, TE, Packers ($25, 35 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Finley is out and Quarless is likely to start, but Bostick has more upside – but he will not be on the field enough for fantasy upside yet. If he makes 1-2 big plays, though, he could push for a starting job.
- Kellen Clemens, QB, Rams ($25): I only include Clemens here for completeness of the waiver wire QB list / injury discussion. Sam Bradford is done for the year and Clemens becomes the starter (with no clear backup on the team – yet). Clemens is still not worth much as the Rams will try and run more and Clemens just isn’t that good – at all.
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
