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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 6 of the 2013 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers ($255): Allen has gone from “rookie with upside” to “top target on a Top 10 passing offense”. That screams waiver wire pickup to me. He is my top guy this week, if Justin Blackmon is gone (as he should be).
- Zac Stacy, RB, Rams ($221): Stacy should not be on the wire, but if this starting tailback for St. Louis is, scoop him up before other fantasy team owners notice this mistake.
- Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals ($211): Did you know that Ellington is playing nearly the same amount of snaps as Rashard Mendenhall, and that Ellington is producing more? If you read this column last week you did. Add Ellington and fast, especially in PPR leagues.
- Reuben Randle, WR, Giants ($207): New York struggles to run the ball and they have three viable wideouts (and TE Brandon Myers has done nothing this year). Brandon Jacobs has stone hands as a receiver, too. Randle could be the #2 WR soon if Nicks gets traded. All that adds up to a great waiver pickup if you can get Randle.
- Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants ($205): Well, that was a surprise, wasn’t it? Over 100 yards and two scores for the big man back on campus as a Giant. Will it last? Probably not, but if you need a running back in the short term, Jacobs is the only guy available for the Giants for almost a month.
- Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys ($201): This might seem a little high, but I have seen rookies get chances, seize them, and hold on to a starting role time and time again. Randle is small, but he can be shifty and catch the ball well out of the backfield. If Murray remains out for several weeks, Randle could put up big numbers against Philadelphia in Week 7 and then ride that performance to a RB2-fantasy role the rest of this year.
- Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals ($200): Arizona needs to throw the ball, mostly because they cannot run it but also because they tend to play from behind. With Larry Fitzgerald at less than full strength, the torch may be passing to Floyd as the top receiver for the future for the Cardinals.
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys ($195): Dallas throws quite a bit, and now with Demarco Murray sidelined for a few weeks, Tony Romo will throw the ball early and often. This week is no different against Philadelphia. Williams is more productive, healthier and more athletic than Miles Austin, so Williams could be the #2 wide receiver very soon in Dallas.
- Jarrett Boykin, WR, Packers ($178): Green Bay dressed just four receivers last week, which was a problem when both Randall Cobb and James Jones got hurt against Baltimore. Boykin stepped up and in as a starter, a role he might continue to hold onto this week with Cobb out 4-8 weeks with a broken leg and Jones still ailing from a PCL strain. Boykin could seize this chance and emerge, but at the worst he is a flex WR as long as he starts and worth an add.
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins ($167): Tannehill comes back to action off of a bye, which is good news if he is on the waiver wire. Out of sight, out of mind for many fantasy owners, but Miami gets Buffalo, New England, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay over the next four weeks. I like Tannehill as a strong QB2 with upside – plus he can scramble for yards too.
- Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks ($155): If Harvin is out there, scoop him up before people realize he might be active in a few weeks.
- Nick Foles, QB, Eagles ($155): Last week, Foles was in the “chump change” bucket at $33, now he skyrockets after a big game last week. The big question remains – will it last, and will he retain the starting job for the Eagles, even when Vick returns to health? If both answers are yes then Foles is worth a pretty penny, so if you want to gamble you still might get a bargain here.
- Jordan Reed, TE, Washington ($125, 195 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Washington has moved on from Fred Davis as their top tight end, and the athletic Jordan Reed has stepped up and in as the top option. Reed made some very good plays Sunday against Dallas, which may mean his waiver wire price went up.
- Heath Miller, TE, Steelers ($115, 185 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Pittsburgh is a mess this year, but the Steelers do have to throw the ball and they need targets. Markus Wheaton is out with a thumb injury, making Miller the third target at worst. If he is available he is worth an addition as a TE2 or bye week guy.
- Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys ($111): Consider this the “hedge” waiver move against Joseph Randle falling flat on his face. Also consider Philip Tanner for even less money.
- Roy Helu, RB, Washington ($109): Helu is back to being a contributing factor for Washington, and Alfred Morris has not been all that of late. Helu is more valuable in PPR leagues or to Morris owners as a handcuff, but he should be owned in most leagues.
- Kendall Wright, WR, Titans ($106): Wright has not been very flashy, but consistency counts for something, too. Wright has at least five catches in the last four contests and averages over 60 yards a game for that timeframe. Add him and use him as a WR3 / flex / bye week guy.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots ($95): Dobson saw a lot of action last week against the Saints, but will he be a starter going forward, or was this his peak? Rob Gronkowski may show up soon…. or maybe not. He is worth a “gamble add”, but not much more until he is consistent.
- Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons ($95): I got a lot of emails and questions about leaving Douglas off of my list last week. Here’s a hint – if I don’t list him, odds are that he should remain on the waiver wire. I am not a big fan of Douglas overall, but after some reconsidering, he is worth a minimal add – but his upside is quite low. With Julio Jones out for the year and Roddy White hurt, Douglas won’t do much. Even when White gets healthy, Douglas is a five catch, 50-yard game kind of guy – or a player in the “just a guy” category. You can (and should) do better.
- Shonn Greene, RB, Titans ($91): Chris Johnson cannot get out of first gear this year, and now Greene is back to health. Do not be surprised if Greene starts getting more workload from Tennessee.
- Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints ($88): Did you see his late touchdown against the Patriots last week? I did, and so did others. Grab him while he is on a bye week before others notice the young and talented undrafted free agent. Even as the third tailback for New Orleans, Robinson has value – and it will skyrocket if either Pierre Thomas or Darren Sproles gets injured.
- Andre Roberts, WR, Cardinals ($85): Speaking of Larry Fitzgerald – if he misses time, Roberts steps up and in as a starter. Handcuff Fitzgerald accordingly.
- Tim Wright, TE, Buccaneers ($85, 125 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): When I first checked up on this guy, I was surprised that he was considered a tight end. Wright looked like a wideout against the Eagles, catching the ball often and moving downfield with good athleticism. Wright racked up seven catches for 91 yards against Philadelphia on a day where Tampa Bay was without Mike Williams, and Wright took full advantage of the opportunity and matchup.
- Kris Durham, WR, Lions ($77): Interesting fact – Durham was a college teammate of Matthew Stafford. File that away when you are looking for his upside. Detroit needs a WR2 option desperately, and Durham could be that guy.
- Chad Henne, QB, Jaguars ($58): Seriously, do not laugh at picking up a Jacksonville quarterback here. Henne looks way better than Blaine Gabbert, and Justin Blackmon looked great against Denver last week. Henne may not light it up every week, but he puts the ball out there for his receivers to make plays.
- Joseph Fauria, TE, Lions ($35, 55 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Under $100 for a guy who scored three touchdowns? Yes, considering that he was a spot starter with Tony Scheffler (concussion) out and Calvin Johnson limited. I expect Fauria’s Week 6 game to be a career high – by quite a large margin.
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.