Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Denver and Seattle were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 5 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Larry Donnell, Giants ($345, $453 in PPR-bonus leagues): If Donnell is still available in your league, owners will fight over him for sure. Donnell’s three scores (and he could have had a fourth) against Washington was his breakout game, and he continues to lead the Giants in receiving.
- Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens ($266): Smith has been quiet this year with Baltimore featuring the tight ends early in the season, but Smith finally shook free for a touchdown in Week 4. I expect his value and targets to increase going forward, and he should not be on the waiver wire.
- Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys ($257): Williams should not be on the waiver wire with Tony Romo featuring him just behind Dez Bryant. Grab him if he not rostered yet.
- Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings ($207): Finding Top 24 running backs in October is not easy, so if you can get Asiata (if he is even available) – do so. He will be pushed by Jerick McKinnon, but as long as Asiata is getting the goal line carries, he will have a ton of value in all leagues.
- Eli Manning, QB, Giants ($203): Eli Manning and the New York Giants looked fantastic against Washington last Thursday, and I think that the passing game continues to roll with great matchups coming ahead (Atlanta, at Philadelphia, at Dallas). If you need a quarterback (or a backup), Manning should be high on your list.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings ($188): McKinnon is being called a “change of pace” back by his coach, but do not let that fool you. McKinnon has more talent than Asiata and could pass him on the depth chart soon.
- Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens ($157): Similar to Eli Manning, Joe Flacco is keeping the Baltimore offense and passing game humming. Steve Smith Sr. has been a fabulous addition and the run game is balancing the aerial attack well.
- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Dolphins ($156): Miami heads into a bye, which means that this is a perfect time to grab a Dolphin with upside. Lamar Miller has looked just OK as the lead back, and Moreno offers a higher upside. Pick him up now while other owners look at more immediate help.
- Chris Ivory, RB, Jets ($153): Another team using RBBC is the Jets, who are splitting carries between Ivory and Chris Johnson. Ivory appears to have more value, but as long as Johnson is in the mix, Ivory’s upside is limited.
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings ($151): Bridgewater looked very solid as the starter in Week 4, but his value will be a little depressed with an ankle injury which may sideline him in Week 5. Take advantage and add him as a strong QB2 option.
- Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens ($145): I have Taliaferro as a higher upside running back going forward despite being behind Forsett right now on the depth chart in Baltimore. The Ravens are going “by committee”, but Taliaferro looks more like a feature back to me.
- Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers ($144): Has it really happened? Is Eddie Royal now a weekly fantasy start, not just a 2-3 times a year flash in the pan? I still have reservations, but the proof is there the last two weeks with all those touchdown catches. Take a shot on him with the Jets coming next week.
- Delanie Walker, Titans ($135, $188 in PPR-bonus leagues): Walker had a big game against the Colts in Week 4, and he offers a ton of value to Tennessee quarterbacks who favor big targets over the middle of the field. Walker has TE1 appeal during bye weeks.
- Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens ($133): Baltimore remains a running back by committee situation, but Forsett looks to be the top back – for now. Rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro is going to push him for snaps, carries and touches all season long.
- Mike Glennon, QB, Buccaneers ($133): If the cupboard is pretty bare in your league at quarterback, Glennon offers solid value as the probable starter the rest of the year in Tampa Bay. Glennon has led this offense before, and Vincent Jackson is a solid WR1. One Mike Evans gets healthy again, Glennon will be a solid QB2 with QB1 upside.
- Louis Murphy, WR, Buccaneers ($133): Murphy has shown flashes of performing well in the past when he was a Panther, and now he got a great chance to contribute with Mike Glennon back under center. With rookie Mike Evans sidelined for a few weeks, Murphy is a solid spot starter with some WR3 value, especially during bye weeks.
- Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Panthers ($122): Cam Newton targeted Cotchery eight times in Week 4, connecting five times for 80 yards. Cotchery looks to be the WR2 for Carolina going forward, and offers flex appeal on bye weeks.
- Roy Helu, RB, Washington ($115): Washington was blown out by the Giants, which meant that Roy Helu saw the field a lot more. Helu is a much better receiver than Alfred Morris, and Helu offers a ton of value in PPR leagues if you need a RB3/flex option.
- Eric Ebron, Lions ($113, $145 in PPR-bonus leagues): Detroit loves to throw and they have a ton of fantasy producers, but if Ebron starts to get on the field more like he did in Week 4, he offers good upside in an offense that has produced TE1 weeks with Matthew Stafford under center.
- Heath Miller, Steelers ($113, $133 in PPR-bonus leagues): Miller is a solid TE2 with TE1 upside in the right matchup, but he cannot do much after the catch anymore. He can still get open, especially in the Red Zone, so he has value.
- Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings ($111): Jennings saw more work with Kyle Rudolph out and Teddy Bridgewater under center, but the Vikings were in a shootout with Atlanta in Week 4. He is a WR3 in the right matchups.
- Devin Hester, WR, Falcons ($104): As long as Atlanta is in shootouts every week, Hester offers some solid value, especially with Harry Douglas hurting. Hester offers even more value in leagues with KR/PR bonus.
- Kadeem Carey, RB, Bears ($103): Matt Forte is the clear feature back in Chicago, but rookie KaDeem Carey has secured the clear backup role. If anything happens to Forte, Carey would instantly become a RB1 option.
- James Jones, WR, Raiders ($102): James Jones is the top Raider receiver, but with Derek Carr hurt and a Week 5 bye, do not go crazy here. He is not better than a WR3 or flex option.
- Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars ($101): Adding a rookie quarterback on a bad team may seem like a bad idea, but Bortles looks pretty good and is posting reasonable QB2 numbers already. If you need a bye week guy and there is not much left in your league, snap him up.
- Allen Hurns, Jaguars ($101): Jacksonville has to throw to move the ball, and the Jaguars are often way behind on the scoreboard. Hurns has three touchdowns and should have had a fourth last week but fell down near the goal line. He is a shaky start each week but could fill in for a bye week player.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans ($85): Tennessee is a mess, but they will start to feed the ball more to their rookie tailback to see what he can do, both this season and for the future of the team. That could mean a feature role is coming, so if you want to gamble, grab him now and hope for the best.
- Clay Harbor, Jaguars ($83, $123 in PPR-bonus leagues): Marcedes Lewis is out, which opens the door for Harbor to be the top tight end in Jacksonville. Harbor is a TE2 at best but he could get “volume value” on a team that will be throwing a ton and playing catchup on the scoreboard.
- Jarius Wright, WR, Vikings ($77): Do not go too crazy here, as Teddy Bridgewater has some rapport with Wright, but Wright is the WR3 for Minnesota and only got a ton of chances because Week 4 was a shootout with Atlanta. Granted, the Vikings lost their top tight end, but I do not expect Minnesota to air it out every week.
- Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders ($77): I am very concerned about adding any Oakland wide receiver, especially with injuries to their quarterback, but the value could be there. Only add him in deep leagues as a flex play.
- LeGarrette Blount, RB, Steelers ($63): Blount is one of the best backup tailbacks in the NFL right now, and he gets a lot of goal line looks. Pittsburgh wants to run the ball more and gets a great matchup (Jacksonville) in Week 5.
- Andre Williams, RB, Giants ($55): Williams cleaned up in garbage time in Week 4, but if anything happens to Rashad Jennings, who has never been a season-long lead back, Williams looks like the next back to be a starter.
- Antone Smith, RB, Falcons ($53): Atlanta may not be giving Smith many touches, but he has been ridiculously productive when given the chance (192 yards, 3 touchdowns on just 13 touches). Steven Jackson may not last all season long, and Smith could be the next starter called upon by the Falcons.
- Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants ($33): A pure gamble here, but Beckham was a first round draft pick and could be in the starting lineup in a few weeks – if he ever gets healthy. A big “boom / bust” pickup.
- Darrin Reaves, RB, Panthers ($25): Purely a longshot play, Reaves offers upside with the entire Carolina backfield injured. He could surprise if given the chance.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.