Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 34of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts ($335): Last week I went out on a limb with Bradshaw, and I am not changing that stance. Go get him if he is available.
- Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens ($311): The Ravens sure looked like they found their starter at tailback last week. The question is, will they split his workload in two or even three directions with Bernard Pierce and/or Justin Forsett. I would add Taliaferro and hope for feature back status going forward.
- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs ($272, 365 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Two starting tight ends went down this week (Pitta, Rudolph) so fantasy value goes up for tight ends. Kelce is getting more snaps and found the end zone in Week 3, so he is the top tight end to go get right now.
- Donald Brown, RB, Chargers ($205): Ryan Mathews is still out for a while, and Danny Woodhead is done for the year. That makes Brown not just the starter but a likely feature tailback for a team that wants to at least have offensive balance. That screams 20+ touches for Brown over the next four weeks at least. The Chargers face Jacksonville and Oakland in the next three games, so consider what Brown can do for you and your fantasy team.
- Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington ($205): Cousins looked very, very good against the Eagles in Week 3, and Robert Griffin III is out about two months. Even when Griffin is healthy again, I am not so sure he gets the starting job back.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Niles Paul, TE, Washington ($185, 267 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Niles Paul is the top guy not just as a tight end with Jordan Reed out, but as the top target overall for Washington. Paul continued the hot streak in Week 3 against Philadelphia, and gets a good matchup against the Giants in Week 4.
- Delanie Walker, TE, Titans ($182, 265 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Walker got something of a gift touchdown against Dallas with a missed tackle resulting in a big run after the catch and score in Week 2, but results are results. Walker is a solid TE2 with upside and with injuries to key tight ends in Week 3 (Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph) he should get claimed this week with a solid matchup against the Colts in Week 4.
- Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals ($175): Sanu is a “double threat” as both a receiver and as a gadget pass thrower, as shown off by Cincinnati in two consecutive weeks. A.J. Green is getting healthy but Sanu is still worth an add and a fantasy roster spot, and this is a good week to grab him with the Bengals on a bye.
- Mike Glennon, QB, Buccaneers ($165): I see Glennon as the second best option this week (assuming most other starters like Alex Smith or Joe Flacco are gone). Glennon has big targets in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, and he has led this team before as a starter.
- Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles ($155): Jordan Matthews had more targets, production and just looked better than Riley Cooper. Matthews looks to be the real WR2 in Philadelphia. He saw nine targets, catching eight of them for only 59 yards but two scores and made some very athletic grabs in the process.
- John Brown, WR, Cardinals ($154): Arizona is 3-0 and they are now using three wide receivers more and more in that offense. Brown is the third option after Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, and Brown found the end zone twice against the tough 49ers defense. Brown is a solid WR4 / flex option and has WR2 upside if either Floyd or Fitzgerald miss a start.
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings ($151): Bridgewater is a tough call right now, as he has lots of upside and downside. The Vikings lost Adrian Peterson, so they have to throw more (and ask their QB to run as well). Bridgewater is unpolished, but he has two viable receivers with Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings. Minnesota just lost Kyle Rudolph for a while (sports hernia) so that limits Bridgewater, but the young quarterback is still worth a QB2-type roster spot.
- Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars ($151): I am calling it a fantasy toss-up between Bortles and Bridgewater. I see Bortles as the better pocket passer, but he has less talent around him. Then again, he has lots of garbage time fantasy upside, and he should get better every week.
- Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns ($147): Cleveland’s top target with TE Jordan Cameron out remains Andrew Hawkins, and it seems to be working for Cleveland. He is a solid WR3 at this point, especially in PPR leagues.
- Drew Stanton, QB, Cardinals ($145): Don’t look now, but Arizona is 3-0 and Stanton has been the quarterback in two of those three wins. Carson Palmer is a solid veteran, but Stanton has filled in admirably and is getting the ball to Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald.
- Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns ($135): Cleveland is using both Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell in their collective backfield with Ben Tate out, and Crowell is getting touchdowns in the Red Zone. He is definitely worth a roster spot going forward, especially in non-PPR leagues.
- Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens ($132, 185 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Baltimore has lost Dennis Pitta for the year, and the tight end position is a big part of their offensive scheme. Owen Daniels is not the player he once was, but he is a solid performer and could post TE2 fantasy numbers as the new starter.
- Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, TE, Colts ($132, 165 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): I cannot figure out which tight end to go get for Indianapolis on a weekly basis, and they are performing nearly identically. Both are high TE2s with TE1 upside, but the presence of one limits the upside of the other.
- Garrett Graham, TE, Texans ($112, 147 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Looking for a sleeper tight end to add? Graham had a solid performance (5-41 on six targets) in Week 3 and he gets solid matchups for the next several weeks.
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings ($103): I mentioned McKinnon last week as a sneaky deep league pickup as a potential top back for Minnesota later this year if (when) Peterson is suspended and everyone realizes Matt Asiata is not that good. That almost happened last week, and I think that could be the situation as soon as Week 4. Atlanta is not good against the run, and new starting QB Terry Bridgewater could look towards McKinnon going forward. I would grab him and stash him just in case he breaks out.
- LeGarrette Blount, RB, Steelers ($102): Blount runs hard and gets goal line work in Pittsburgh despite Le’Veon Bell’s starter and feature back status. Blount is a good flex / bye week running back to roster, and is a must own if you have Bell.
- Alfred Blue, RB, Texans ($101): Do not be fooled by Blue’s stats from Week 3 (13-78 rushing) – most of the rushing yards came on one big play. Blue is not going to be a fantasy starter for you, regardless of matchup, and is a flex option at best.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets ($96): Eric Decker cannot stay healthy, leaving Jeremy Kerley as the top target for Geno Smith. That is not a ringing endorsement, but Kerley found the end zone against the Bears in Week 3 and has WR4 / flex appeal.
- Miles Austin, WR, Browns ($65): Cleveland is using their top two receivers effectively, spreading the ball between Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins. Austin reeled in six of seven targets and added a touchdown, providing WR3 fantasy type numbers. He is not a sexy addition but is a viable flex / WR3 as bye weeks approach.
- Hakeem Nicks, WR, Colts ($55): Nicks is the third wide receiver at best for Indianapolis after Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, but when your quarterback throws four touchdowns in a game and targets your third option in the Red Zone, your name comes up as a possible waiver wire add. If you have room (or if you have Hilton or Wayne), consider him for a spot on your bench, just in case.
- Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants ($25): Sleeper pickup alert here as rookie Odell Beckham could be active starting in Week 4. The Giants need playmakers, and Beckham – should he finally be healthy – could provide a spark. In deep leagues he is worth a pickup and stash as a wide receiver lottery ticket.
- Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers ($15): Do not go crazy on Eddie Royal. He does this every year, getting multiple touchdowns in a game then disappearing. His weekly performance is just too unreliable.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.