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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Denver and Seattle were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: Time for some fantasy self-reflection. If your team is 5-2 or better, you are likely a playoff team and you can start stacking your bench for the playoffs. If you are 3-4 or worse, you have to gamble and get wins, so bid big for any help you can get now.
Week 9 Comment: Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 Comment: Time is running short to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: Bye weeks are almost behind us, with just six more teams to take a week off. Now it is time to roster some guys to back up your top backs and receivers and get the roster set for your fantasy playoffs.
Week 12 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 13 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 14 Comment: It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 15 Comment: Same as last week - It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 16 Comment: Only two weeks left, so it is time to go after potential starters or back up the questionable ones.
Week 17 Comment: If you are still in a league for Week 17, this is a one-week pickup for sure, if you need one. Go big or go home. This week the list will be shorter as we have no “wait and see” type pickups.
Week 17 tip – If you are still in a league for Week 17, this is a one-week pickup for sure, if you need one. Go big or go home. This week the list will be shorter as we have no “wait and see” type pickups.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 17 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings ($500): Once again, beggars can’t be choosers this time of year. Asiata is a starting tailback right now by default, so that alone makes him a RB2/3/flex option. If you are desperate for RB help, here is a reasonable suggestion who could find the end zone any given week.
- Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys ($330): Randle leaps to the top of the waiver wire running back options this week if DeMarco Murray gets some rest. Randle is a risky pickup because Dallas may want to keep their momentum and play their starters with a likely game on Wild Card weekend, and the Cowboys also have an outside shot at a bye (if Seattle and Arizona both lose). Considering Washington is a rival with a good run defense, Randle is a very iffy starter for Week 17.
- Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers ($325): San Diego must win against the Chiefs on Sunday, and Kansas City has given up a ton of yards to running backs this year. Oliver could rack up over 100 total yards and find the end zone in Week 17.
- Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons ($305): Atlanta must win on Sunday to get into the playoffs, but Steven Jackson is banged up again. Freeman looked good in Week 16, amassing 84 yards on just eight touches (plus a score). Grab him and hope Jackson is out.
- Hakeem Nicks, WR, Colts ($275): Donte Moncrief started last week but was a big disappointment, while Nicks caught nine short passes for 72 yards. If Indianapolis folds up the tent this week and treats this game like a bye, all bets are off – but Nicks is probably playing no matter what.
- Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants ($275): Manning goes against the Eagles this week, a suspect secondary that is giving up a lot of yards and opportunities. Couple that with a hot Eli Manning and an even hotter Odell Beckham Jr. and I see a big game for Manning in Week 17.
- Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks ($265): Baldwin is the top target for Russell Wilson, and Seattle has to beat St. Louis to get the top seed in the NFC. With Odell Beckham Jr. lighting up the Rams last week, Baldwin could post another 100+ yard game here and really help Week 17 lineups.
- Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings ($257): Charles Johnson continues to perform well as the starting “X” receiver for Minnesota, and he gets a reasonable matchup against Miami this week. Johnson offers value as a WR3 with upside as a starter for the Vikings, especially against the Bears.
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins ($250): Tannehill had four touchdown passes last week – sure, we saw that coming. But Miami has more stability with their head coach coming back next year and they are playing for a winning record, and the Jets have a bad secondary and are due for a letdown after fighting hard against New England. I like Tannehill as a spot starter in Week 17.
- Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers ($245): Eddie Royal had another big game in Week 16 (10-94-1) and will see plenty of targets in Week 17 in a must win for the Chargers. Get him if you can.
- Rueben Randle, WR, Giants ($235): Look who showed up in Week 16! Randle had six catches for 132 yards and a score against the Rams, and now he and the Giants face a reeling Philadelphia team. Randle could have another big day this Sunday.
- Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears ($214): Wilson gets Cutler back under center this week, and coming off of a decent game in Week 16 (7-66), Wilson could be in a position to have his best game yet and find the end zone again in Week 17 against Minnesota.
- Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($207): San Diego was in all-out comeback mode against San Francisco in Week 16, and Inman stepped up and in to the lineup in the second half. He converted nine second-half targets into a 7-79 day, and likely earned more confidence from Philip Rivers for Week 17. A risky pickup, but he could start to see more action and snaps in a must win against Kansas City this week.
- Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts ($205): Moncrief started last week but was a big disappointment. I might go with Hakeem Nicks instead.
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings ($200): Bridgewater is still learning his way in the NFL, but the signs of improvement are there. He is a modest QB2 with some upside, especially with a good matchup against the Bears this week. I like what he offers as a spot starter in Week 17.
- Jay Cutler, QB, Bears ($200): If Cutler was dropped and you need a spot starter, you can do worse here. Cutler is within striking distance of 4,000 yards for the year (he needs 360) and I could see him trying to light up the Week 17 sky to save his future and show his being benched was a mistake.
- Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens ($200): Baltimore needs to win, Torrey Smith is hot, Joe Haden missed last week and Cleveland may be playing something called a “Connor Shaw” at quarterback. Flacco needs 326 yards for 4,000 this year too, so there’s also that. Good spot starter.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys ($187): Cole Beasley is a fast, quick, speedy slot receiver that Tony Romo loves to use to move the chains. If Dallas rests their normal starters, Beasley could be on the field a ton in Week 17. Gamble pickup.
- Albert Wilson, WR, Chiefs ($187): Kansas City must win in Week 17, but can they go to the playoffs without a single wide receiver touchdown this season? Wilson showed some life as the WR2 for the Chiefs last week, and he might be the guy that helps solve the touchdown drought.
- Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins ($175, $245 in PPR-bonus leagues): If you are a believer in Ryan Tannehill’s continued improvements, then you have to like Charles Clay. Clay had six grabs for 114 yards and Miami will want to end the year on a high note.
- Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Raiders ($175): Oakland would love nothing more than to finish the season strong and mess up Peyton Manning’s postseason plans. Thompkins was thrown away by the Patriots but resurfaced with Oakland, racking up 90 yards last week. He is a decent WR3 desperation pickup for Week 17.
- Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles ($155, $225 in PPR-bonus leagues): Last Week Ertz had 15 catches for 115 yards, and he gets a great matchup against the Giants this week. He makes for a nice option to add for Week 17.
- Leon Washington, RB, Titans ($150): I don’t love this option, but if you are desperate, he had 73 yards on 11 touches last week and a touchdown. Throw in that he plays the Colts who lack motivation and he could have a decent game.
- Damien Williams, RB, Dolphins ($150): Another iffy play for Week 17, but he did get 68 yards and a touchdown last week against Minnesota and the Jets are still the Jets.
- Orleans Darkwa, RB, Giants ($100): Just a fun name to say. He had 38 yards and a touchdown on six touches last week, and he just might have a little value against Philadelphia in Week 17.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Not this time of year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.