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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Denver and Seattle were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: Time for some fantasy self-reflection. If your team is 5-2 or better, you are likely a playoff team and you can start stacking your bench for the playoffs. If you are 3-4 or worse, you have to gamble and get wins, so bid big for any help you can get now.
Week 9 Comment: Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 Comment: Time is running short to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: Bye weeks are almost behind us, with just six more teams to take a week off. Now it is time to roster some guys to back up your top backs and receivers and get the roster set for your fantasy playoffs.
Week 12 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 13 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 14 Comment: It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 15 Comment: Same as last week - It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 16 Comment: Only two weeks left, so it is time to go after potential starters or back up the questionable ones.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 16 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons ($475): Douglas was a great spot start last week with Julio Jones out, and he could put up another 100 yards against New Orleans with the NFC South on the line. Even if Jones is active, Douglas is getting a lot of targets from Matt Ryan and he should see enough targets to put up WR3 numbers.
- Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys ($425): Randle leaps to the top of the waiver wire running back options this week with the latest news that DeMarco Murray’s hand issue and surgery. Randle could be starting come Sunday against the Colts, which would make him a RB1 candidate.
- Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts ($423): Moncrief nearly scored an incredible deflected touchdown pass, but it was called back due to a penalty. That’s all he had in Week 15 as he finished with a giant zero in the stats. So why is he still on the list? Not only is Reggie Wayne not at 100%, but now T.Y. Hilton is banged up too. If Moncrief gets a spot start against Dallas in Week 16, you need to have him available to you.
- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs ($401, $467 in PPR-bonus leagues): I have a hard time believing that Kelce is still available, but I keep hearing that this is true. Alex Smith found him for a touchdown last week against Oakland, and Kansas City needs to keep getting him involved in the offense as his receiving skills are very strong. A matchup against the Steelers this week looks very inviting. Yes, this is a recording. Go get him!
- Toby Gerhart, RB, Jaguars ($366): Beggars can’t be choosers in Week 16. Gerhart is the top back for Jacksonville, and he gets a great matchup against Tennessee.
- Andre Williams, RB, Giants ($357): Rashad Jennings was active last week, but it was short lived as he left the game early due to his ankle issues. Williams could draw another start, but faces a tough defense against the Rams in Week 16.
- Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers ($275): San Francisco looked terrible against the Seahawks again last week, but Frank Gore left early with a concussion. That makes Carlos Hyde the likely Week 16 starter on a short week against San Diego. Hyde is an athletic back that is capable of a big game.
- Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings ($257): Charles Johnson continues to perform well as the starting “X” receiver for Minnesota, and he gets a reasonable matchup against Miami this week. Johnson offers value as a WR3 with upside as a starter for the Vikings.
- Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers ($249): The good news is that Martin is back as the lead tailback for the Buccaneers, but he is not as involved as a receiver and the matchups are getting rough (Carolina, Green Bay). Even so, if you need running back help and he is available, you have to take what you can get this time of year.
- Robert Griffin III III, QB, Washington ($245): If you need a starting quarterback (or seek an upgrade), Griffin gets a great matchup against the Eagles this Saturday. That said, Washington is still a mess, but Griffin is capable of a solid QB1 performance against a defense that is giving up a lot of fantasy points.
- Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens ($255, $333 in PPR-bonus leagues): Daniels is getting more targets with Torrey Smith not at full strength, and now Daniels gets to face his former team with big playoff implications on the line. He’s not a sexy tight end play, but he is productive, especially in PPR leagues.
- Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings ($245, $335 in PPR-bonus leagues): Rudolph has been a bigger part of the Vikings passing game since he returned from injury. Minnesota is starting play much better down the stretch with more receiving options and Teddy Bridgewater starting to get comfortable. If Rudolph is available he may be one of the last guys with TE1 upside out there.
- Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints ($235): Pierre Thomas was a big part of the win over Chicago on Monday Night Football, reeling in screen passes and dashing for big yardage after the catch. He is a solid RB2/flex option, especially in PPR leagues against Atlanta.
- Eric Decker, WR, Jets ($225): If someone in your league gave up on Decker, grab him as he has really turned it around of late and is seeing a ton of targets from Geno Smith. There is Week 16 downside against New England, as he might be on Revis Island all day.
- Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys ($215): If DeMarco Murray misses Week 16, Dunbar moves up to the Cowboys’ second back and offers RB3/flex value.
- Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings ($201): Once again, beggars can’t be choosers this time of year. Asiata is a starting tailback right now by default, so that alone makes him a RB2/3/flex option. If you are desperate for RB help, here is a reasonable suggestion who could find the end zone.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs ($192): Davis is mostly considered as the handcuff to Jamaal Charles, but Davis is getting enough work (and performing well on those chances) to make him a RB3/flex by himself. He racked up two scores on limited touches last week and he always has a chance to do it again. Charles owners should have Davis already, but if he is out there, consider him as a smart pickup.
- C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills ($185): Do you feel lucky? The Bills are activating Spiller off of IR this week and they might just give him some touches against a Raiders defense that gave up some big plays last week to Knile Davis. Spiller is a total gamble, but he has home run ability.
- Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals ($185): Lost in Jeremy Hill’s big Week 15 performance was Bernard’s 100+ total yards. Not bad for the second back on the team. Bernard faces a tougher matchup against Denver on Monday, but he is a decent flex option.
- Devin Hester, WR, Falcons ($185): Whenever the Falcons are shorthanded at wide receiver, Hester seems ready, willing and able to pick up the slack. Last week he had a solid game (5-85-1) and could have had even more. Hester also gives the added bonus of kick return potential as well. If you have Julio Jones and need a “handcuff”, I would add him this week.
- Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders ($153, $207 in PPR-bonus leagues): The Raiders are bad, but Rivera is the go-to target for Derek Carr. He is a target magnet for the young quarterback, which makes Rivera a solid TE1 play with so many targets heading his way, even against a tough Bills defense.
- Kenny Britt, WR, Rams ($147): Britt’s value went up quickly after he has found the end zone for the second time in three weeks prior to the Arizona game, but he came back to earth with a pedestrian Week 14 (5-65). Britt offers decent WR3/flex value with some home run upside.
- Kerwynn Williams, Cardinals ($137): Williams is the top back for Arizona, but the offense is in disarray with no solid starter at quarterback and they face Seattle this week. Williams offers some fantasy value, but not as much as other options likely on the waiver wire.
- Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins ($135): If you have a need for a WR3 in a PPR league, here you go. Landry gets 5-7 catches and 50-70 yards most weeks, but not much more. He had a solid Week 15 (8-99) so you can do much worse with your waiver wire additions.
- Stedman Bailey, WR, Rams ($135): Bailey was quiet last week (5-74) after posting 100 yards receiving on five receptions in Week 13. His value and targets go up and down, but he is a decent pickup this late in the year.
- James Jones, WR, Raiders ($124): While Andre Holmes continues to be the boom/bust option in Oakland, James Jones is the more consistent target for PPR and modest yardage production every week. Jones will not be a big producer most of the time, but his production floor is higher than Holmes, making Jones a solid WR3/4/flex type player.
- Heath Miller, TE, Steelers ($121, $165 in PPR-bonus leagues): The Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger have had to throw a lot to try and make up for a porous defense, and that could be the case again this week against Kansas City. While he is not that flashy, if you need a tight end with some TE1 upside, Miller offers just that for Week 16.
- Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins ($105, $141 in PPR-bonus leagues): If you are a believer in Ryan Tannehill’s continued improvements, then you have to like Charles Clay. Clay can post 4-6 catches and a score most any week.
- Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars ($101): Be very careful here if you are targeting Shorts as an addition. This is a short week and Blake Bortles may not make the start, and you can probably do better than Short’s 6-76 from Week 15.
- Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars ($101): Just like Shorts – but with both a bigger upside and a much lower floor.
- Marlon Brown, WR, Ravens ($100): If Torrey Smith is not full strength again this week, Brown could see an uptick in value. Just be careful here as Baltimore could just as easily try and establish the run against Houston. Brown offers very little upside.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Not this time of year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.