Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 tip – Talk about injuries! This week could be the most impactful and volatile week on the waiver wire. Every position had at least one major star succumb to injury, so everyone is likely to be diving into the free agent pool for some help – or even just some warm bodies. Do not overbid too hard as the fantasy regular season has just 5-7 games left, but if you have big bucks and want to boost your squad, now might be the time to spend a lot of that cash.
Week 9 tip – Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 tip – Once again, time to shoot the lock off of the wallet. More than two-thirds of the bye weeks are over for teams (just 10 of 32 left), so now your lineups should be all about the best talent – and stashing big upside guys or disaster plan handcuffs. Spend your money with just a few weeks left in most leagues to do so.
Week 11 tip – Time to change gears. There are just a few weeks left before fantasy playoffs, so it is time to pony up the dough for big contributors, grab key handcuffs or stuff the bench with a few high upside guys. No room for bye week fillers any more with just a handful of teams with a bye week left. It is playoff push time.
Week 12 tip – You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 13 tip – Time to go "all in". With just a few weeks left on the NFL and fantasy calendar, all waiver wire moves have to be made with the idea that either the player you pick up is an immediate contributor or there is a clear scenario that if you lose another player on your current roster, that pickup will be extremely valuable (think handcuff – but all positions). Backup Frank Gore with Kendall Hunter, for example, but also think about wide receiver, tight end and quarterback backups too.
Week 14 tip – Same as last week – go all in. These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 15 tip – Same as last week – go all in. These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 15 of the 2013 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens, ($333, $475 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Last week he was $103 in this column. Now he is at least $250, if not more – and if you need a tight end or get extra for a tight end catch, time to blow the bank.
- Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings, ($277): Adrian Peterson was knocked out of the Ravens game last week due to an injury, which opened up the door for Gerhart to show everyone what he can do. Remember – he is a free agent this off-season, so Gerhart is very motivated. Even if Peterson can go this Sunday, Gerhart offers some fantasy playoff value.
- Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Vikings, ($265): The Vikings are getting their top draft pick wideout more and more involved in the offense. If Adrian Peterson misses time (and he certainly will not be at full strength) then it makes sense that Minnesota will get Patterson more chances in the game plans over the next few weeks.
- Joique Bell, RB, Lions, ($250): Reggie Bush was a last minute scratch last week (which cost a lot of owners, I am sure – I was one of them), but Bell stepped up and delivered a big performance against the Eagles. I expect Bell to be at least a RB2 value and possibly more against the Ravens on Monday Night Football.
- Montee Ball, RB, Broncos, ($244): For Denver offensive players, matchups do not matter. Denver has scored 25 or more points in 18 straight games, so all that matters for Broncos is playing time and touches. Ball is splitting time with Knowshon Moreno, but both backs are productive RB2s with RB1 upside every week. Get Ball if you can.
- Rod Streater, WR, Raiders, ($233): As long as Denarius Moore is sidelined, Streater will remain the top receiver for Oakland. Streater and Andre Holmes will be the starting wideouts for Oakland for the foreseeable future, making both players WR3s with upside.
- Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers, ($221): Crabtree looks less than 100%, but there is no question that Colin Kaepernick loves that he is back in the lineup. Week 15 is not the greatest matchup (at Tampa Bay) but Week 16 at home against Atlanta could be a championship caliber matchup. Crabtree should now be rostered by a playoff contender.
- Marlon Brown, WR, Ravens, ($215): I love adding Marlon Brown right now as a WR3 or flex player with upside. Matchups in Week 15 (Detroit) and 16 (New England) will lead to a lot of throws from Joe Flacco, who now has three receivers (Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith) to spread the ball around. Brown had 11 targets last week, catching seven balls for 92 yards and a score against Minnesota, and he could be just as productive the next two weeks.
- Daniel Thomas, RB, Broncos, ($203): Lamar Miller (concussion) could be out again this week, which makes Thomas the likely Miami feature tailback again this week against the Patriots. Thomas had over 100 yards on just 16 carries last week and found the end zone against Pittsburgh, and as I said before, finding a feature tailback in December on the waiver wire is not easy to do. Grab him as a RB2 or flex guy with upside if he is available.
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals, ($201): “Law Firm” BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a gamble pickup. On the plus side, he scored two times last week (or was given credit for two touchdowns – he was actually short on one carry) and the Bengals want to run the ball. On the negative side, Cincinnati splitting time between Giovani Bernard and Green-Ellis. The matchups are good for Green-Ellis (Pittsburgh, Minnesota) so he is a decent RB2 option the next two weeks.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins, ($185, $255 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Ryan Tannehill loves his tight end, and Charles Clay scored another touchdown last week. Clay is a TE1 candidate against New England this week and offers value for Week 16 against Buffalo.
- Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders, ($175): Rashad Jennings is supposed to come back to the Oakland lineup this week, but after Reece’s big game last week against the Jets it would not be a surprise to see both Raider running backs get a dozen or more touches each. Grab Reece if you own Jennings or if you need upside at running back, but wait to see the injury reports on Jennings before using him – especially against Kansas City.
- Jacob Tamme, TE, Broncos, ($165, $225 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): If you need a tight end (I am talking to you, Rob Gronkowski owners), Jacob Tamme could save your bacon this week. Tamme played nearly every snap for Denver after Wes Welker was sidelined last week with a concussion, and Peyton Manning has a good relationship with Tamme since their days in Indianapolis. I would still rather have Dennis Pitta or even Charles Clay, but Tamme is a solid consolation prize as he could get you 50 or more yards and a score against San Diego.
- Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders, ($160): Rod Streater and Andre Holmes will be the starting wideouts for Oakland for the foreseeable future, making both players WR3s with upside. Streater is worth more as he has proven to be a more consistent player so far.
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins, ($155): If you are in the quarterback market this week (and the Bears’ quarterbacks are not available), Ryan Tannehill is not a bad option. Tannehill has close to 150 yards rushing in the past four weeks and he is throwing the ball around to three viable options at wide receiver and tight end. With a divisional game against New England up next, Tannehill has QB1 upside this week with his arm and legs.
- Delanie Walker, TE, Titans, ($150, $203 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Walker is probably the fourth or fifth-best tight end to add this week (close with Garrett Graham), but with a great matchup against Arizona, Walker could get you enough points to remain competitive at the tight end spot.
- Garrett Graham, TE, Texans, ($150, $203 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Graham is probably the fourth or fifth-best tight end to add this week (close with Delanie Walker), but Case Keenum likes the big guy and Owen Daniels remains out (and could stay that way for the year). Graham scored a touchdown and was very productive last Thursday against Jacksonville and he could post another big game against Indianapolis this week.
- Chris Ivory, RB, Jets, ($144): Ivory had a strong game against Oakland last week, and he is the clear top running back for the Jets. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he faces Carolina and an underrated Browns defense the next two weeks, so he is no better than a RB2 and offers considerable downside in bad matchups in Weeks 15 and 16.
- Shonn Greene, RB, Titans, ($133): Greene scored twice last week against Denver, but temper expectations if you are going to grab him and start him this week against Arizona.
- James Starks, RB, Packers, ($121): Eddie Lacy (ankle) may not be able to go this week against Dallas, which is a fantastic matchup for tailbacks of late. If Lacy cannot go, Starks elevates to at least a RB2 if not higher for Week 15 and he would have a good matchup against Pittsburgh in Week 16 if he gets another start.
- Justin Hunter, WR, Titans, ($117): Tennessee split time amongst their top three wide recievers, with Justin Hunter (38), Kendall Wright (38) and Nate Washington (39) playing nearly identical time in the 50 offensive plays for the Titans against Denver in Week 14. Hunter was very productive on his four receptions, scoring once and racking up 114 yards, but oddly enough Tennessee only threw 24 times. I just do not trust the Titans’ passing game, and with Delanie Walker likely to come back soon there is no guarantee that Hunter approaches these numbers against Arizona or Jacksonville over the next two weeks.
- Da’Rick Rogers, WR, Colts, ($115): Indianapolis has finally figured out that Darrius Heyward-Bey is not the answer, which has given LaVon Brazill and Da’Rick Rogers more chances (and targets) from Andrew Luck. Rogers is splitting time with Brazill, so both of them are WR3 gambles at best. I cannot decide between the two, so it is a coin flip and I would likely look elsewhere for wide receiver help.
- LaVon Brazill, WR, Colts, ($115): Indianapolis has finally figured out that Darrius Heyward-Bey is not the answer, which has given LaVon Brazill and Da’Rick Rogers more chances (and targets) from Andrew Luck. Brazill is splitting time with Rogers, so both of them are WR3 gambles at best. I cannot decide between the two, so it is a coin flip and I would likely look elsewhere for wide receiver help.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Not this time of year. Time to go all in and get some starters for the last few contests.
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.