Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Denver and Seattle were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: Time for some fantasy self-reflection. If your team is 5-2 or better, you are likely a playoff team and you can start stacking your bench for the playoffs. If you are 3-4 or worse, you have to gamble and get wins, so bid big for any help you can get now.
Week 9 Comment: Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 Comment: Time is running short to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: Bye weeks are almost behind us, with just six more teams to take a week off. Now it is time to roster some guys to back up your top backs and receivers and get the roster set for your fantasy playoffs.
Week 12 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 12 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos ($503): If Anderson is still available, snap him up. Montee Ball is hurt again and Ronnie Hillman may not play again until late December.
- Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles ($333): Convinced yet that Matthews is worth a roster spot? Three touchdowns in two weeks and two 100+ yard games in a row. Grab him if by some strange reason he is still available.
- Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots ($327): Talk about your tough calls. The phrase “chasing points” keeps echoing in my mind here. Will Bill Belichick ride Gray again, or was he a one week matchup wonder? If you need a running back, you have to gamble that he will get a lot of work going forward.
- Alfred Blue, RB, Texans ($325): Some of you (likely readers of this column) saw this one coming. Foster was out last week and Blue stepped right in, rushing 36 times for 156 yards. Blue has to be added by all Foster owners, and he is worth a RB2 spot going forward until Foster returns to health.
- Josh Gordon, WR, Browns ($315): If the rest of your league forgot about him, add him now before he comes back in Week 12.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Tre Mason, RB, Rams ($177): Mason is the top rusher for St. Louis right now. He is having trouble translating that to touchdowns, but once he does, his value will skyrocket. He tacked on 113 yards rushing in the upset win over Denver. In favorable matchups he will be a RB2, so grab and stash him now.
- Kenny Britt, WR, Rams ($157): Britt’s value has gone up quickly after he has found the end zone for the second time in three weeks. Shaun Hill connected with him enough for over 100 yards against Denver, so Britt looks like a fantasy WR2-WR3 right now.
- Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars ($147): Do not overlook Cecil Shorts this week coming out of a bye. He had over 100 yards in Week 10 against Dallas and now Allen Robinson is out for the year with a broken foot. That is a recipe for Shorts to be the WR1 in Jacksonville.
- Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins ($135): I keep mentioning Landry, week after week. Last week he scored a touchdown against Buffalo in a very forgettable game, but he is yet another rookie wide receiver worth a roster spot.
- Drew Stanton, QB, Cardinals ($134): The best team (by record) in the NFC has lost their starting quarterback once again, and this time Carson Palmer is done for the year with a torn ACL. Stanton is back as the starter and he has a ton of solid targets surrounding him, making him a solid QB2 option.
- Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings ($127): Another suspended player that has big upside if he returns. Could Peterson return to action this year? If he does, that is unbelievable talent you could have for your fantasy playoffs. That said, Adam Schefter just reported on Tuesday via twitter that he is suspended by the NFL the rest of the season, but we will see what happens when the NFLPA gets involved. That just means he is cheaper for you to pick up this week if you are willing to roll the dice.
- John Brown, WR, Cardinals ($124): Another team WR3 here in Brown, but his upside is just so high when he hits that he is worth a shot if you need a spot starter, and now Larry Fitzgerald has a knee sprain. Add him for certain if you own Fitzgerald.
- Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers ($121): Rookie running backs that take over as feature backs in the second half of the regular season have saved many a fantasy team. Charles Sims could do just that for you – but keep in mind that Tampa Bay is still really bad. Sims debuted in Week 10 with a modest performance but he played the majority (33 of 52) snaps against Washington in Week 11. There is definite upside if you can still add him to your squad.
- Roy Helu, RB, Washington ($117): Washington is not a good team, and they will be trailing on the scoreboard more often than not. That translates to having to throw to catch up, and it favors running backs who can catch and play on passing downs. Roy Helu fits the bill, as he did on Sunday with his 6-57-1 receiving day against Tampa Bay.
- Coby Fleener, TE, Colts ($115, $157 in PPR-bonus leagues): I used to be unable to break a virtual tie between Fleener and Dwayne Allen, but Allen just sprained his ankle on Sunday Night Football and rumor has it that it might be of the “high ankle sprain” variety. Fleener lit up New England (7-144) and could be a TE1 if Allen is out in a very highly productive Indianapolis passing game.
- Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks ($111): Someone from Seattle is going to emerge as a go-to target, and it could be Kearse or Baldwin. Picking which week to start either is a completely different story.
- Josh McCown, QB, Buccaneers ($111): Not a great game if you saw McCown actually play against Washington, but Mike Evans can sure make anyone look good. For that reason alone, McCown deserves a QB2 roster spot.
- Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks ($110): Someone from Seattle is going to emerge as a go-to target, and it could be Kearse or Baldwin. Picking which week to start either is a completely different story.
- Kenny Stills, WR, Saints ($105): With recent news that Brandin Cooks will be out for several weeks with a broken thumb, all of the other starting targets get a boost in value for the Saints. That means Kenny Stills might see an uptick in targets, although so might Jimmy Graham and Travaris Cadet. Stills is worth rostering but he is a boom or bust type receiver.
- Ryan Mallett, QB, Texans ($103): Not a bad debut. I’ve learned that a veteran quarterback, even one that doesn’t start for a while, is still more valuable as an eventual starter than a rookie QB. Mallett has decent receivers and a good arm.
- Cody Latimer, WR, Broncos ($103): If you think Emmanuel Sanders and/or Julius Thomas miss time with Denver, Grab Latimer. He could be a favorite target very soon for Peyton Manning. Think Wes Welker, but younger legs.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Chris Hogan, WR, Bills ($95): The Bills spread the ball around their receivers in Week 10 with Sammy Watkins a little less than full strength. Chris Hogan stepped up as the third receiver after Watkins and Robert Woods and performed well. He solidified that value with a strong Week 11 (7-74). He is worth a very deep addition.
- Andre Caldwell, WR, Broncos ($89): Add him for the same reasons you want Cody Latimer. More veteran than Latimer, but less talented.
- Juwan Thompson, RB, Broncos ($88): Thompson stole two touchdowns away from Ronnie Hillman a few weeks ago, and with Montee Ball’s injured yet again, Thompson is one injury away from a huge upside role for Denver.
- Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders ($77): Oakland is nearly historically bad, and they are finally giving younger players opportunity. Murray has upside as a rusher and a receiver, posting 63 yards on just seven touches in Week 11. Grab him as a sneaky pickup with upside in the final weeks of a forgettable Oakland campaign.
- Niles Paul, TE, Washington ($77, $107 in PPR-bonus leagues): Jordan Reed is hurt again with a hamstring injury, which makes Niles Paul the next man up. Grab him and if you need a tight end, as it is not clear if Reed will miss time just yet.
- Daniel Herron, RB, Colts ($37): Do you feel lucky? Ahmad Bradshaw is out with a broken ankle, and Trent Richardson is now the top running back in Indianapolis. That’s right – all that separates Dan Herron from being Andrew Luck’s starting tailback is Trent Richardson. That alone makes him worth a waiver wire pickup if you are looking for a high upside lottery ticket at tailback.
- Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings ($17): Wait, you don’t know who Charles Johnson is? I’ll admit it, I had to look him up myself. HE was buried on the depth chart in Minnesota but saw playing time with Greg Jennings and Jarius Wright injured. The second-year player from Grand Valley State accumulated six catches and 87 yards – but is barely rosterable.
- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals ($11, $15 in PPR-bonus leagues): Two catches, two touchdowns, and not worth adding to your roster. Yes, it was that kind of a weird week in the NFL in Week 11. Move along.
- Ray Rice, RB, Free Agent ($7): If you are looking for a total lottery ticket, Ray Rice is it. He could be reinstated this month and a desperate team might give him a shot. If he gets the chance, we all know he can be a solid feature tailback, but it is a big gamble.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.