Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 tip – Talk about injuries! This week could be the most impactful and volatile week on the waiver wire. Every position had at least one major star succumb to injury, so everyone is likely to be diving into the free agent pool for some help – or even just some warm bodies. Do not overbid too hard as the fantasy regular season has just 5-7 games left, but if you have big bucks and want to boost your squad, now might be the time to spend a lot of that cash.
Week 9 tip – Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 tip – Once again, time to shoot the lock off of the wallet. More than two-thirds of the bye weeks are over for teams (just 10 of 32 left), so now your lineups should be all about the best talent – and stashing big upside guys or disaster plan handcuffs. Spend your money with just a few weeks left in most leagues to do so.
Week 11 tip – Time to change gears. There are just a few weeks left before fantasy playoffs, so it is time to pony up the dough for big contributors, grab key handcuffs or stuff the bench with a few high upside guys. No room for bye week fillers any more with just a handful of teams with a bye week left. It is playoff push time.
Week 12 tip – You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 12 of the 2013 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Bobby Rainey, RB, Buccaneers ($507): This is the guy to go get this week. With 30 carries, 163 yards and two touchdowns in Week 11, Rainey earned the top spot in the Tampa Bay backfield and also here in Money Talks. If you have the most money left in your league, spend it right here for a guy who has a good playoff schedule as well (Buffalo in Week 14, at the Rams in Week 16).
- Andre Brown, RB, Giants ($325): I have to assume he is gone, but if he isn’t, go get the top back for the Giants right now and for the rest of the season.
- Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns ($285): Forget Willis McGahee and even Fozzy Whitaker for the top spot in the Cleveland backfield – that job has gone now to Chris Ogbonnaya. Ogbonnaya had a combined 14 touches in Week 11, racking up almost 100 yards against Cincinnati. He is a solid RB2 or flex option going forward considering that McGahee and Whitaker do get chances, but at this time of year you have to spend more to get productive players.
- Tavon Austin, Rams ($257): Austin might have slipped through waivers last week with the Rams on a bye. That will be to your advantage, as many owners will forget about him with him having the week off. Snap him up.
- Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots ($255): Monday Night Football proved everyone who has been stashing Vereen for weeks right, especially in PPR leagues. He will see 8-10 touches most weeks and is a favorite target for Tom Brady either out of the backfield or lined up wide. If you waited until now to add him, you will be paying for that delay.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Montee Ball, RB, Broncos ($185): Knowshon Moreno owners should be very concerned after Sunday Night Football. Ball scored twice against Kansas City and could be the goal line favorite for Denver going forward. Either way, you cannot afford to overlook how productive (even just fantasy-wise) Ball was for the Broncos. He has to be added and is at least a flex option looking ahead.
- Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals ($185): Arizona is better than most people think, and it is not all about Larry Fitzgerald. Michael Floyd had well over 100 yards against Jacksonville and is a Top 25 wideout in PPR rankings on the season. If he is available, grab him quickly.
- Donald Brown, RB, Colts ($175): Quiz time – who is the starting tailback for Indianapolis? Go to the front of the class if you said Donald Brown (and sorry if you won Trent Richardson). Brown should be owned in all leagues and is a solid flex RB going forward. His high dollar amount is less about his talent and more about the dearth of good running backs to start right now.
- Delanie Walker, TE, Titans ($165, $225 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Why on earth is Delanie Walker so high? Listen closely to the facts. Three touchdowns in the last four games for Tennessee, including a 10-91-1 night against the Colts last Thursday, which made Walker the second-best tight end (as of Sunday Night Football) for Week 11. Walker also has a great schedule including the fantasy playoffs (at Denver, Arizona, at Jacksonville) for Weeks 14-16. I love this pickup right now.
- Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers ($155): Crabtree has to be activated this month, and he will instantly become a top target for Colin Kaepernick, who loved Crabtree last year in the postseason. San Francisco needs an offensive spark, and Crabtree can provide it. I love his upside for the fantasy playoffs. Grab him before his price starts to climb.
- Marquise Goodwin, WR, Bills ($137): EJ Manuel hit the speedy Goodwin six times in Week 11, giving him 81 yards and a nice touchdown run. Goodwin also added a 17-yard run as well against the Jets. Goodwin could be the second wideout for Buffalo (ahead of Robert Woods) for a team that needs to throw more often now with a struggling ground game.
- Nate Burleson, WR, Raiders ($133): How many weeks in a row can I say it? Burleson should be back any day now and immediately becomes the starter for one of the most pass-happy offenses in the league. Pick him up.
- Matt McGloin, QB, Raiders ($133): Oakland has not decided who will start in Week 12, but it would be hard to bench Matt McGloin after a strong performance in his first NFL start. McGloin only threw for 197 yards but was an efficient 18 for 32 with three touchdowns and no picks. McGloin looked more like a classic pocket passer than Terrelle Pryor, but it remains to be seen who starts and if McGloin is worthy of anything higher than a fantasy QB2 value.
- Garrett Graham, TE, Texans ($127, $198 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Matt Schaub or Case Keenum, Houston throws the ball to the tight end. Graham racked up career best numbers in Week 11 (7-116-1) and with Keenum back under center (I think), he should be a lower end TE1 going forward.
- Rod Streater, WR, Raiders ($125): Oakland may have found a quarterback in Matt McGloin, and many of the receivers will benefit from an improvement in the passing attack. Streater posted a solid 6-84-1 game in Week 11 on eight targets, making him a solid WR3 going forward if he keeps seeing that many chances on a weekly basis.
- Rishard Matthews, WR, Raiders ($125): The Miami passing game can support three wide receivers, especially a slot guy, as seen first by Brandon Gibson and now Rishard Matthews. Matthews followed up a big Week 10 (11-120-2) with a respectable 4-52 Week 11 game, and he should be a solid WR3 going forward.
- Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Steelers ($115): Emmanuel Sanders was injured and Cotchery once again stepped up for more targets and playing time, and of course a touchdown. Cotchery now has seven touchdowns this season, tying him for sixth in the league for wide receiver scores. If Sanders is sidelined for any duration, Cotchery could be a solid WR3 with WR2 upside going forward.
- Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins ($115): Yes, there are problems with Miami’s ground game, starting with a very rough offensive line and a split backfield between Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas, but Thomas is getting more and more work and touches at almost a 2:1 rate. If you need a running back for depth or to cover for a late bye or possible injury, grab Thomas as a solid bench guy.
- Dexter McCluster, WR, Chiefs ($111): McCluster was lackluster against Denver, compiling five catches and 53 yards on Sunday Night Football. McCluster is the poster boy for “roster filler”, meaning that he is an okay backup you can plug in if you are desperate for a starter, but you really don’t want to do that if you don’t have to. There are guys with higher upside that you want to use, so roll dice on someone else if you want to win your fantasy playoffs.
- Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens, ($103, $155 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Here is a decent gamble to take for playoff-bound teams, as Pitta could be back in a week or two to help Baltimore with a playoff push. Joe Flacco loves Pitta, and he could become a virtual wide receiver for the Ravens once he hits the field again.
- Dennis Johnson, RB, Texans ($101): I have been mentioning him for several weeks, and you need to snap him up especially if you have Ben Tate. Time to back up your RB2.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Antone Smith, RB, Falcons ($85): Here is another flyer that I love. Steven Jackson is just not going to be in the long term plans for Atlanta, and it is quickly becoming time to evaluate the youth on the roster. Antone Smith had 93 yards on just three carries along with a touchdown late in a blowout loss for the Falcons, but Smith was a bright spot for those who saw him play late. He has flyer upside and could be the next man up if and when Jackson is on the sideline.
- Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets ($77): Two catches is not that much, but Holmes looked good on both of those receptions. Uncertainty at quarterback could pop up soon for New York and Holmes is no lock for 5-6 catches a game, but he is a viable WR4 or flex option in great matchups.
- Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders ($77, $111 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Similar outlook to Rod Streater here for the top tight end in Oakland. Five catches, 54 yards and a score in Week 1 for the Raiders’ tight end makes him a solid backup.
- David Nelson, WR, Jets ($77): Stephen Hill is getting benched as a starter in favor of Nelson, but considering that Geno Smith is a mess (if he continues to start), it is hard to see much upside for any receiver for the Jets.
- Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles ($75, $102 if you own LeSean McCoy): Did your heart skip a beat yesterday, McCoy owners? It shouldn’t have if you own Brown. If you don’t, time to fix that.
- LaVon Brazill, WR, Colts ($75): Here is one of my favorite flyers this week. Darrius Heyward-Bey was benched last Thursday, opening the door for Brazill to elevate to a starting role – perhaps. If you agree that the upside is high if that’s the case going forward, snap him up and hope he becomes the third favorite target for Andrew Luck.
- Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Vikings ($75): Great athletic young talent here, but he needs both a quarterback who can hit him in stride and also more playing time. Patterson is a huge boom / bust wideout but he could boom in December if Minnesota gives him more snaps.
- Jarius Wright, WR, Vikings ($71): More playing time but less talent than Patterson. I would rather have Patterson.
- Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers ($65): Is it finally Wheaton time? I think it might be if Emmanuel Sanders is out for any length of time. Wheaton saw plenty of playing time with Sanders out as Wheaton caught three of five targets for 38 yards. Great sleeper with upside here for a player that had many draftniks considering him for a future WR1 level type talent.
- Seyi Ajirotutu, WR, Chargers ($65): Keenan Allen owners, take note. If Allen’s knee is anything more than a hyperextension, Ajirotutu is your backup to pick up, as he played in his place when Allen went out on Sunday.
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
