Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Denver and Seattle were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: Time for some fantasy self-reflection. If your team is 5-2 or better, you are likely a playoff team and you can start stacking your bench for the playoffs. If you are 3-4 or worse, you have to gamble and get wins, so bid big for any help you can get now.
Week 9 Comment: Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 Comment: Time is running short to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: Bye weeks are almost behind us, with just six more teams to take a week off. Now it is time to roster some guys to back up your top backs and receivers and get the roster set for your fantasy playoffs.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 11 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants ($427): If Jennings is available, go after him HARD this week. The Giants have struggled to run the ball with Andre Williams and they miss Jennings desperately. Jennings should be back very soon and New York has a great December fantasy schedule.
- C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos ($337): Ronnie Hillman is out at least two weeks, and Montee Ball is getting used to hanging out on the sideline. Anderson looked great as the feature back last week after Hillman was injured and he could be the guy the rest of the way.
- Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers ($311): Evans was being considered as a potential WR1 if Vincent Jackson got traded, but of late Evans has looked like the WR1 and Jackson the WR2. Evans is getting better each week and facing softer coverage than Jackson, a recipe that leads to big fantasy value.
- Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers ($257): San Diego is coming off of a bye week and they may get back their top line tailback to start once again. If Mathews is available, snap him up, even if Brandon Oliver is used on third downs.
- Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles ($223): I hope you paid attention last week and grabbed Matthews. S I wrote last week: Philadelphia had to go to Mark Sanchez at quarterback, and one of the lesser-known side effects of going to your backup quarterback is that your backup wide receivers often get more production. That is because they train more and get more reps together on the second unit. Matthews is a big target and should be pushing Riley Cooper for more playing time anyway, and now Sanchez’s promotion might expedite Matthews moving ahead of Cooper. After his big Monday Night Football explosion, his waiver wire value and price just went way up.
- Eli Manning, QB, Giants ($211): If Manning is somehow available, snap him up. He nearly threw for 300 yards against Seattle and, after the 49ers, has a very favorable schedule. The Giants will have to throw quite a bit in December and has great fantasy playoff matchups.
- Josh Gordon, WR, Browns ($205): If the rest of your league forgot about him, add him now before he comes back in Week 12.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings ($157): Another suspended player that has big upside if he returns. Could Peterson return to action this year? If he does, that is unbelievable talent you could have for your fantasy playoffs.
- Alfred Blue, RB, Texans ($147): Uh oh, Arian Foster owners - you better get some insurance, even with the Texans coming off of a bye. Fantasy owners looking to make a savvy pickup could go for Blue now and hope he starts in Week 11 and beyond.
- Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars ($147): Over 100 yards and now Allen Robinson is out for the year with a broken foot. That is a recipe for Shorts to be the WR1 in Jacksonville.
- Terrance West, RB, Browns ($133): Just like with Buffalo, the Browns might be happy with using three backs on a regular basis. West, Isaiah Crowell and Ben Tate all scored last week, and Cleveland would love to keep that going with all three tailbacks.
- Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins ($133): Landry led the Dolphins in receiving in Week 10 and his production continues to increase. Landry is worth a pickup as a WR3/flex with upside.
- Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders ($133, $187 in PPR-bonus leagues): The Raiders are bad, but Rivera is the go-to target for Derek Carr. He is a target magnet for the young quarterback, which makes Rivera a solid TE1 play going forward.
- Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins ($129, $161 in PPR-bonus leagues): If you are a believer in Ryan Tannehill’s continued improvements, then you have to like Charles Clay. Clay finally found the end zone in Week 7 against the Bears and he did it again in Week 9, showing signs that he is healthy and heating up. Clay can post 4-6 catches and a score most any week.
- Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns ($127): Just like with Buffalo, the Browns might be happy with using three backs on a regular basis. Crowell, Ben Tate and Terrance West all scored last week, and Cleveland would love to keep that going with all three tailbacks.
- Bryce Brown, RB, Bills ($126): Buffalo may have found their recipe for their backfield – and it involves all three tailbacks. Brown was effective as a runner and receiver in Week 10, but his upside is limited with Fred Jackson and Anthony Dixon competing for chances.
- Drew Stanton, QB, Cardinals ($123): The best team (by record) in the NFC has lost their starting quarterback once again, and this time Carson Palmer is done for the year with a torn ACL. Stanton is back as the starter and he has a ton of solid targets surrounding him, making him a solid QB2 option.
- Montee Ball, RB, Broncos ($122): Ronnie Hillman is out at least two weeks, but C.J. Anderson is going to get the first crack at being the feature back for Denver. Ball might get something of a complimentary role or even a shot to be a lead back if Anderson falters, but do not count on it. Either way, Ball is worth adding.
- John Brown, WR, Cardinals ($121): Many are going to avoid picking up Brown this week after Carson Palmer is out and thinking Brown’s big touchdown was all he really did (or does). Far from it, as his WR3 status for the Cardinals is big because Arizona does not use the tight end much. Brown has huge upside if either Fitzgerald or Floyd miss time as well.
- Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers ($117): San Francisco rediscovered their ground game, and Carlos Hyde was effective (4-36-1) on limited touches behind Frank Gore. If you own Gore you must get Hyde if you can.
- Tre Mason, RB, Rams ($116): Mason is the top rusher for St. Louis right now. He is having trouble translating that to touchdowns, but once he does, his value will skyrocket. In favorable matchups he will be a RB2, so grab and stash him now.
- Alfred Blue, RB, Texans ($115): Uh oh, Arian Foster owners - you better get some insurance, even with the Texans on a bye. Fantasy owners looking to make a savvy pickup could go for Blue now and hope he starts in Week 11 and beyond.
- Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs ($115): One of these days, a Kansas City wide receiver is going to find the end zone, and is likely to be Bowe. Bowe posted solid Week 10 numbers and is getting stronger as the WR1 for the Chiefs. Seattle is a tough Week 11 matchup, but it gets easier after that.
- Josh McCown, QB, Buccaneers ($115): McCown played respectably in his first start back under center in Tampa Bay, racking up 301 yards and two touchdowns against Atlanta. The Buccaneers have solid receivers and a bad defense, which is a great recipe for fantasy success.
- Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys ($113): DeMarco Murray owners, take note. Here is your handcuff and insurance.
- Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers ($111): Rookie running backs that take over as feature backs in the second half of the regular season have saved many a fantasy team. Charles Sims could do just that for you – but keep in mind that Tampa Bay is still really bad. Sims debuted in Week 10 with a modest performance but there is definite upside if you can still add him to your squad.
- Damien Williams, RB, Dolphins ($107): If Lamar Miller misses time, Damen Williams looks to be the next guy that Miami will look towards to be their top rusher. That alone makes him a solid pickup this late in the year.
- Michael Vick, QB, Jets ($107): Two touchdown passes and 39 yards rushing are not too bad for a Jets team that was playing from ahead for the first time in months. Vick has Week 11 off but he could be a solid QB2 down the stretch.
- Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings ($105, $125 in PPR-bonus leagues): The Pro Bowl caliber tight end is close to returning, so grab and stash him now.
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Buccaneers ($102, $134 in PPR-bonus leagues): Josh McCown looked at his big rookie tight end nine times in Week 10, and the youngster stepped up for five catches, 30 yards and a late touchdown for Tampa Bay. Seferian-Jenkins is a good TE2 option going forward with the Buccaneers likely to have to throw a lot down the stretch.
- Christine Michael, RB, Seahawks ($101): Christine Michael looked good as the second back for Seattle, and after Marshawn Lynch had a record day, we know how valuable he is for the Seahawks. Grab Lynch’s understudy.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks ($79): Kearse led the Seahawks in receiving in Week 10, but Seattle is more about running and defense once again with no Percy Harvin. Most of Kearse’s totals came on a long pass as he saw only four targets. Tread lightly.
- Preston Parker, WR, Giants ($73): Parker is the latest WR3 option for the Giants, and he stepped up in Week 10, catching all seven of his targets for 79 yards and a TD against Seattle. Parker offers good upside for a team that has to throw quite often.
- Jace Amaro, TE, Jets ($55, $67 in PPR-bonus leagues): Michael Vick has always liked tight end targets, and rookie Jace Amaro converted one of those looks to a touchdown in Week 10. The Jets are off this week so if you need to grab a backup for Week 12 or later, snap him up.
- Brent Celek, TE, Buccaneers ($55, $67 in PPR-bonus leagues): Adding Brent Celek is a gamble, but keep in mind that Chip Kelly is going with “11 personnel” (one tight end, one back) more and more, and that the Eagles are a running team first and foremost. Kelly wants a tight end that can block, and Celek is better at it than Zach Ertz. Celek is on the field more and goes out to receive more often when the offensive line is healthy, which it now is. I hav Celek higher than Ertz in value right now.
- Chris Hogan, WR, Bills ($35): The Bills spread the ball around their receivers in Week 10 with Sammy Watkins a little less than full strength. Chris Hogan stepped up as the third receiver after Watkins and Robert Woods and performed well. He is worth a very deep addition.
- Ray Rice, RB, Free Agent ($7): If you are looking for a total lottery ticket, Ray Rice is it. He could be reinstated this month and a desperate team might give him a shot. If he gets the chance, we all know he can be a solid feature tailback, but it is a big gamble.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.