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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 tip – Talk about injuries! This week could be the most impactful and volatile week on the waiver wire. Every position had at least one major star succumb to injury, so everyone is likely to be diving into the free agent pool for some help – or even just some warm bodies. Do not overbid too hard as the fantasy regular season has just 5-7 games left, but if you have big bucks and want to boost your squad, now might be the time to spend a lot of that cash.
Week 9 tip – Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 tip – Once again, time to shoot the lock off of the wallet. More than two-thirds of the bye weeks are over for teams (just 10 of 32 left), so now your lineups should be all about the best talent – and stashing big upside guys or disaster plan handcuffs. Spend your money with just a few weeks left in most leagues to do so.
Week 11 tip – Time to change gears. There are just a few weeks left before fantasy playoffs, so it is time to pony up the dough for big contributors, grab key handcuffs or stuff the bench with a few high upside guys. No room for bye week fillers any more with just a handful of teams with a bye week left. It is playoff push time.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 11 of the 2013 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Andre Brown, Giants ($415): If you didn’t bid on him last week, shame on you – I told you his price would go up, and now look at him. He is probably the top pickup for this week (certainly at tailback), and his price will reflect it. Hopefully you have the money to go big on him and get him on your roster.
- Tavon Austin, Rams ($257): People are likely to go crazy for Austin this week, and I can see why after he scored on three huge plays on Sunday. The question is, will St. Louis try and feed him the rest of the way, can they, and will defenses now key on him after such a big week? Austin is a gamble pickup for sure, and he will cost you no matter what league format. If you have money to burn, go after him – but otherwise tread lightly.
- Riley Cooper, Eagles ($244): If Cooper is still out there as a free agent, this is likely to be the last time it happens the rest of the season. Cooper caught two more touchdowns in Week 10 and Nick Foles loves to target him down the field. You should also target him this week.
- Case Keenum, Texans ($225): What more do you need to see here? Keenum has had three big weeks in a row against some tougher competition, and the Texans are running out of running back options. I expect Keenum to throw 30+ times a week and put up solid numbers far more often than not.
- Donald Brown, Colts ($210): Trent Richardson owners already know the headaches and hair-pulling here. Brown, despite -1 yards rushing last week, is still outgaining Richardson overall on a consistent basis in a split backfield. If you need depth (or own Richardson), grab Brown.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots ($185): Same story as Andre Brown (back from IR, but Week 11) – but more upside.
- Mark Ingram, Saints ($177): Yes, he put up big numbers against Dallas, but who didn’t for New Orleans? Ingram did look good overall but he will split early carries with Pierre Thomas and both will leave for Darren Sproles on passing downs, which seems to be most snaps for Drew Brees.
- Jarrett Boykin, Packers ($160): I found it hard to believe that Boykin was a free agent in so many leagues, but it is true. Green Bay may be on their third quarterback, but Aaron Rodgers will come back soon and Boykin is seeing plenty of love from Scott Tolzien, not to mention that Boykin saw plenty of passes come his way from Rodgers. Boykin is definitely worth an addition.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, Titans ($157): Jake Locker is likely done for the year, which means Fitzpatrick is the new starter for Tennessee. This team has a very attractive schedule the rest of the way – but I said that before they lost to Jacksonville. Fitzpatrick is a capable QB2 and is worth a roster spot because he can certainly put up solid numbers like he did last week.
- Michael Crabtree, 49ers ($135): Rumor has it that Crabtree will be back for San Francisco around Thanksgiving, just in time for fantasy playoffs. This is the kind of pickup that teams can make that can make or break your playoffs – so if you have room on your roster and feel like rolling dice, there’s no bigger boom / bust aside from Percy Harvin.
- Dennis Johnson, Texans ($127): Arian Foster is done for the season, and Ben Tate cannot take much more in the way of big hits. Johnson has looked good as the third, now second back for Houston, and the offense is more balanced with Case Keenum.
- Nate Burleson, Lions ($115): I keep beating this WR2 for Detroit drum, and Burleson was practicing all last week. Grab him now if you think he returns to pre-broken arm form, which I do.
- Jermaine Kearse, Seahawks ($115): Seattle’s wide receivers can be a jumble, but what is clear is that Kearse gets lots of end zone targets, making him a big value regardless of who is active or starting.
- Rishard Matthews, Dolphins ($121): Matthews broke out on Monday night, catching 11 balls for 120 yards and two scores on 14 targets. Matthew is now the slot receiver for the Dolphins after Brandon Gibson went to injured reserve. Ryan Tannehill has to go with hot reads with so much pressure in his face, and Matthews will see plenty of targets going forward as a result with him working from the slot.
- Cordarelle Patterson, Vikings ($115): The big playmaker rookie is a true boom / bust player, but the Vikings have to find out who can play and who can’t down the stretch. Patterson should be more and more involved in the offense going forward.
- John Carlson, Vikings ($113, 165 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Kyle Rudolph (broken foot) is gone, so Carlson got his shot to step up and deliver as a starter last week against Washington, which he did. I think he can keep it going for a team that needs playmakers and receivers.
- Delanie Walker, Titans ($102, 145 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Tennessee had a game that they would like to forget last week, but Walker was productive and found the end zone. The Titans have been in need of solid tight end production all year, and Ryan Fitzpatrick may look towards Walker the rest of the way far more than Jake Locker did.
- Brian Leonard, Buccaneers ($102): Mike James was injured (ankle) on Monday night, opening the door for the third string tailback to take over on early downs. Leonard is not flashy but Greg Schiano knows him from his days at Rutgers, and Leonard will split time with Bobby Rainey in the Tampa Bay backfield. It is still up in the air which back will get the majority of the work, but both are worth pickups.
- Bobby Rainey, Buccaneers ($101): Rainey gets a bump in value with the injury to Mike James (ankle) on Monday night. Rainey will split time with Brian Leonard in the Tampa Bay backfield but has higher upside and better PPR skills. It is still up in the air which back will get the majority of the work, but both are worth pickups.
- Leonard Hankerson, Washington ($101): Robert Griffin III III targets Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed the most by far, but Hankerson is quietly getting more work, week after week, as the second wideout for Washington. He may not be startable every week but in good matchups he offers WR3 or flex appeal.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Jerricho Cotchery, Steelers ($87): Hard to argue against Cotchery when he keeps getting touchdowns, but the targets are just not that consistent. He caught both passes he saw in Week 10, gaining 31 yards and a score, but two targets are not enough to rely on him every week.
- Mario Manningham, 49ers ($55): The second wideout job for San Francisco is just not that productive, even though Manningham did see six targets against Carolina. With Michael Crabtree likely back before the end of the month, Manningham is not worth much at all.
- Scott Tolzien, Packers ($50): I seriously almost mentioned him last week and thought better of it. You can’t name everyone, and Tolzien was on the practice squad two weeks ago (but did get a raise, which caught my eye on the news). Tolzien has great weapons in Green Bay and that offense can certainly move the ball, but he is just a stopgap until Rodgers returns. Hopefully you can do better.
- Brandon Bostick, Packers ($33, 55 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Jermichael Finley is done for the year, and the big young tight end is getting playing time in his place. Bostic racked up three catches, 42 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles last week and is worth a pickup if you are desperate for tight end help.
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.