Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want LeVeon Bell’s understudy, get him now before Bell pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Denver and Seattle were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: Time for some fantasy self-reflection. If your team is 5-2 or better, you are likely a playoff team and you can start stacking your bench for the playoffs. If you are 3-4 or worse, you have to gamble and get wins, so bid big for any help you can get now.
Week 9 Comment: Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 Comment: Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 10 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals ($427): Look at that – talent plus opportunity plus fresh legs equals a weekly fantasy stud. Where have we seen that before? How about every season. Hill got his shot to be the feature tailback last week and delivered in a big way, and he will be looking to do it again on Thursday. Giovani Bernard will lose some work to Hill even when both are healthy, but Hill is a RB1 right now and has a floor of a modest RB2, so grab him if you can.
- Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars ($357): Sometimes I am wrong (yes, it does happen, shocking I know) – Robinson is a solid fantasy starter, even for Jacksonville. I still think one big hit and he’s done, but until it happens, ride him for all he is worth.
- Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants ($331): Beckham Jr. continues to post big numbers for the Giants. I see him as the most explosive receiver that they have and the likely WR1 for Eli Manning going forward.
- Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers ($315): Pittsburgh has been in need of a second target to compliment Antonio Brown, and most had expected it to be Markus Wheaton. After another Sunday’s offensive explosion, Martavis Bryant is pushing for more and more playing time. He has scored five times in the past three weeks and Ben Roethlisberger certainly likes his speed / size combination.
- Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers ($311): Evans was being considered as a potential WR1 if Vincent Jackson got traded, but in Week 9 Evans looked like the WR1 and Jackson the WR2. Evans is getting better each week and facing softer coverage than Jackson, a recipe that leads to big fantasy value.
- Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots ($211): I had LaFell under $100 two weeks ago and his stock continues to rise. Tom Brady is looking more comfortable as a passer again, and he seems to like looking at Brandon LaFell on both medium and deep passes. LaFell had been more of a boom/bust guy each week, but Brady is looking in his direction much more, making him a respectable WR3 with big upside.
- Josh Gordon, WR, Browns ($205): If the rest of your league forgot about him, add him now before he comes back in Week 12.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings ($161): Yes, Asiata is “just” a goal line back, but all Cris Carter ever did was catch touchdowns. I don’t have a problem with either one of those outcomes.
- Alfred Blue, RB, Texans ($157): Uh oh, Arian Foster owners - you better get some insurance, even with the Texans on a bye. Fantasy owners looking to make a savvy pickup could go for Blue now and hope he starts in Week 11 and beyond.
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins ($157): Do not laugh – Tannehill looks legit under center in Miami now. He has thrown for two or more scores in his last four starts, and the guy can run the ball himself. Looking for a poor man’s Russell Wilson? Grab Tannehill if you can.
- Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals ($156): What else can I say about Carson Palmer to tell you he is worth adding as a very strong QB2 with upside? He has three solid receivers and a great pass-catching running back and plays for a team that is very competitive. Palmer can post 300 yards and two scores almost any week, which almost sounds pedestrian in today’s NFL, but Palmer is worth rostering for certain.
- Mark Sanchez, QB, Eagles ($155): Nick Foles is out for the rest of the fantasy regular season (it seems, expected to miss 6-8 weeks), and Mark Sanchez is the next man up. The Philadelphia offense is explosive and productive enough for Sanchez to play quite well in it and be a QB1 for fantasy purposes, starting Monday against Carolina.
- Robert Griffin III III, QB, Washington ($155): Washington is not very good, but they are looking towards building for the future (again) and will be playing catchup on the scoreboard most of the rest of the year. That’s usually good news for a fantasy quarterback, especially one that can run.
- Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers ($133): Pittsburgh has been in need of a second target to compliment Antonio Brown, and most had expected it to be Markus Wheaton – but now Wheaton is being pushed hard by Martavis Bryant. Wheaton is worth a roster spot, especially if Ben Roethlisberger remains a hot passer, but Wheaton could be losing more snaps to Bryant.
- Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers ($125): Rookie running backs that take over as feature backs in the second half of the regular season have saved many a fantasy team. Charles Sims could do just that for you – but keep in mind that Tampa Bay is still really bad. Sims can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he could be worth even more in PPR leagues.
- Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots ($125): Another back on a bye week that is a “buy low” here, as Denver is tough against running backs. Gray is going to get the goal line work and as the weather gets cold for the Patriots, Gray could be the next back used to close out the fourth quarters in games where New England leads. The schedule is not great, but the upside is. I would take a flier on him if you need RB help.
- Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens ($116): Baltimore needs explosive offensive production, and Torrey Smith can provide it in the passing game. While Joe Flacco has been working shorter passes with Steve Smith and his tight ends, he needs to take the top off of defenses and Torrey Smith can provide a big spark.
- Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders ($113, $167 in PPR-bonus leagues): The Raiders are bad, but Rivera is the go-to target for Derek Carr. He is a target magnet for the young quarterback, which makes Rivera a solid TE1 play going forward.
- Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins ($111): If I was to ask you who the WR2 is in Miami, would you say Brian Hartline? Think again, as Jarvis Landry has more production than Hartline on roughly the same number of targets. The arrow is pointing up for Landry and down for Hartline, and the Miami offense is getting better. Landry is worth a pickup as a WR3/flex with upside.
- Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles ($110): Philadelphia had to go to Mark Sanchez at quarterback, and one of the lesser-known side effects of going to your backup quarterback is that your backup wide receivers often get more production. That is because they train more and get more reps together on the second unit. Matthews is a big target and should be pushing Riley Cooper for more playing time anyway, and now Sanchez’s promotion might expedite Matthews moving ahead of Cooper.
- Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings ($109): Every young quarterback needs a safety valve of a receiver. Jennings is just that for Teddy Bridgewater. Jennings is a solid WR3 in PPR, but not much more.
- Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins ($105, $141 in PPR-bonus leagues): If you are a believer in Ryan Tannehill’s continued improvements, then you have to like Charles Clay. Clay finally found the end zone in Week 7 against the Bears and he did it again in Week 9, showing signs that he is healthy and heating up. Clay can post 4-6 catches and a score most any week.
- Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens ($102, $133 in PPR-bonus leagues): Daniels returned to action after a one-week injury, and he stepped right back in for his normal PPR value. He’s not a sexy tight end play, but he is productive, especially in PPR leagues.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Tre Mason, RB, Rams ($96): This is a sneaky addition if you can get him, as Mason is the top rusher for St. Louis right now. He is having trouble translating that to touchdowns, but once he does, his value will skyrocket. In favorable matchups he will be a RB2, so grab and stash him now.
- Terrance West, RB, Browns ($87): If you can figure out the Cleveland ground game, more power to you – but unless I am desperate for tailbacks and willing to roll dice, I cannot start any of them. If you want to gamble on the waiver wire and grab West in case Cleveland picks him as their feature back, I cannot blame you – but I am not holding my breath.
- Bobby Rainey, RB, Buccaneers ($85): Tampa Bay is really, really bad – which usually is bad news for running back value. Rainey filled in for the injured (and ineffective) Doug Martin, but his numbers were rather unimpressive. Rookie Charles Sims is waiting in the wings to challenge for snaps and touches, and that is where my bidding dollars would head.
- Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars ($83): If you are looking for weekly consistent production, Hurns is not your guy – but if you want to take a flier on someone who could get hot and have a big week, consider him – especially in a best ball league.
- Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts ($77, $107 in PPR-bonus leagues): I have mentioned Allen before in this column and he scored once again, but he splits targets with Coby Fleener. Tough call to start either one, but if you need a bye week fill-in then either is a viable option.
- Coby Fleener, TE, Colts ($77, $107 in PPR-bonus leagues): I cannot break a virtual tie between Fleener and Allen. Fleener had more yards than Allen in Week 9, but both split targets. Tough call to start either one, but if you need a bye week fill-in then either is a viable option.
- Chris Polk, RB, Eagles ($77): Polk is the handcuff to LeSean McCoy, and you can bet that Philadelphia would love to take the air out of the ball with the lead late in games the rest of the regular season with Nick Foles out. Polk is a great gamble pickup.
- Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings ($55, $85 in PPR-bonus leagues): The Pro Bowl caliber tight end is close to returning, so grab and stash him now.
- LeGarrette Blount, RB, Steelers ($55): If you own LeVeon Bell, it is time to add an insurance policy, especially if most of your roster has bye weeks behind it now. Blount has huge upside should anything happen to Bell.
- Kenny Britt, WR, Rams ($55): The good news – Britt is a WR1 for St. Louis. The bad news? Britt is the WR1 for the Rams. His production is a WR4/flex at best.
- Michael Vick, QB, Jets ($25): A gamble play at best, but this week might be the best time to use him with the Jets facing the Steelers, a team that has given up good fantasy numbers (albeit in garbage time, mostly) the last two weeks. Vick may not start the rest of the way, but he could be a value pickup for Week 10.
- Taylor Gabriel, WR, Browns ($5): Gabriel is Fool’s Gold with Josh Gordon coming back soon and many better targets in Cleveland. Look elsewhere for weekly consistent production.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
