When it comes to picking out NFL tight ends for fantasy purposes, it does not take much to figure out who the top candidates are this season. If you are looking for some late value picks, however, you have come to the right place. What I want to find for all of us here are tight ends that should be getting several targets a game. With five or more balls headed their way each week, they should be able to haul in at least three on average and have a shot at 40-50 yards a week and possibly a touchdown. That may not sound like much, but that works out to be 48 catches and 640-800 yards a year, which would put any TE right near the Top 12 last season (provided he scored a few times). Not bad at all.
So what's the plan? I have looked at several different ways to pick up some valuable tight ends later in fantasy drafts before, but this time I am going to get a bit more scientific. Here I will take a look at an overall ADP list and pick out three different types of teams. Oddly enough, I care more about the wide receivers on a given team than about the tight ends. The reasoning is pretty simple - if the quarterback on a given team has limited options, the ball has to go somewhere. What better option than a big guy over the middle?
I broke the 32 NFL teams down and kept the ones that fit into three basic categories:
- Teams with no WRs in the Top 50 ADP List
- Teams with only 1 WR in the Top 30 ADP List
- Teams with 1-2 WRs in the Top 50 ADP List but none in the Top 30
Here are the results:
CATEGORY 1 - TEAMS WITH NO WRS IN THE TOP 50 ADP LIST
This may be surprising to some, but there are usually a few teams each year with absolutely terrible wide receiver options. This season has three, one due to a team with a stud tight end and tow teams that have a lot of uncertainty lining up outside the numbers. Seattle leads the list with Jimmy Graham a Top 2 tight end, but his influence on the passing game pushes Doug Baldwin and everyone else at wide receiver outside of the Top 50 list, so scratch Seattle off as a tight end option unless you want to pick Graham in the first 3-4 rounds. Now, once upon a time, Cleveland had the best fantasy wide receiver in Josh Gordon, but he is suspended (again), this time for all of the 2015 season. That leaves the Browns with just Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline as thier top two options, and neither player instills enough confidence in any fantasy drafter to even consider them a Top 50 option this year. Last season that meant Jordan Cameron was expected to be the top target for the Browns and becomes a huge value - but now he is in Miami and the tight end position for Cleveland is also pretty barren. That leaves just one team to consider - the St. Louis Rams. Nick Foles is their new starting quarterback, and he has been a successful fantasy passer when he was in Philadelphia, so there is the possibility that he could elevate the St. Louis passing attack. While there are several question marks at the Top 3 wide receiver spots for the Rams (currently projected to be Brian Quick, Kenny Britt and then either Tavon Austin or Stedman Bailey), the clear starter at tight end is Jared Cook. Cook could easily lead the Rams in targets and catches this year and post 50+ receptions - not bad for a very late round tight end pick.
Bottom line from Category 1: Jimmy Graham will be long gone by Round 4 and Cleveland is a tight end wasteland right now, but Jared Cook in St. Louis is a viable late round selection.
CATEGORY 2 - TEAMS WITH ONLY 1 WR IN THE TOP 30 ADP LIST
This group of teams is the largest group to consider (eight NFL teams), but some of them are easily scratched off because either (A) their starting tight end is a top option (Top 12 ADP) or because (B) their TE has an ADP lower than Death Valley. Quickly looking over the list, we have to dismiss the Bears' Martellus Bennett, Jacksonville's Julius Thomas, Carolina's Greg Olsen, Kansas City's Travis Kelce and Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert as five "Type A" tight ends. With that said, let's transfer our gaze to "Type B". That leaves three teams to go over, so let's hit it:
- Houston – The Texans have a rough passing game because of a feeble starting quarterback and just DeAndre Hopkins as a viable receiving target. Garrett Graham let the team with just 16 catches at the tight end position, but he still retains sleeper status for his athletic ability and upside. If the Texans and second-year head coach Bill O'Brien can figure out their quarterback situation and start to use the tight end role more - two big ifs - then Graham could be a solid sleeper pick late in drafts, but I am not holding my breath.
- San Diego – They used to say that if you have two starting quarterbacks, you have none (right Houston?), and that used to be the story with the Chargers - until Antonio Gates was suspended for the first four games of this coming season. That leaves Ladarius Green as the starter for San Diego for September, and we have been waiting for a changing of the guard from Gates to Green for what seems like forever. Philip Rivers is going to have to throw a lot this season, but with question marks at the wide receiver spot after Keenan Allen, lots of targets should go towards the tight end position. Eddie Royal and his touchdown abilities moved to Chicago, while Steve Johnson and Malcom Floyd will battle for the second starting role). Gates and Green could compete come October, but I would roll some dice on Green with his very low ADP (Round 15/16, 182nd overall, TE24) and see if he can cement his role in this offense.
- Oakland – Here is another team that will likely throw a lot and also has two tight end options. Last season, Mychal Rivera led the Raiders at the tight end position with 100 targets, resulting in solid numbers (58-534-4). Rivera was right there with the top two wide receivers in targets (James Jones had 114, Andre Holmes had 99). Lots of things have changed in Oakland since last year, and for good reason. James Jones is now gone, and rookie Amari Cooper is the likely top wide receiver along with free agent addition Michael Crabtree. Better receivers likely means less targets for tight ends in this offense, which would certainly make Rivera less appealing even if he had a firm hold on the starting role - but he does not even have that. Rookie Clive Wolford is pushing Rivera to start, which basically splits that smaller slice of the offensive pie in half. I would avoid both tight ends, even if one of them becomes a clear starter.
Bottom line from Category 2: Target Ladarius Green as the best tight end from this group, somewhere around Round 15.
CATEGORY 3 - TEAMS WITH 1-2 WRS IN THE TOP 50 ADP LIST BUT NONE IN THE TOP 30
This group of teams is usually much smaller than Category 2, but several NFL WR1s are just sitting outside the Top 30 this season, which puts this category at five teams this year. Only one of the five teams (Tennessee) has just one receiver on this list in Kendall Wright, but Delanie Walker sits at TE10 on the ADP list, so we are not going to discuss him here. Minnesota (Kyle Rudolph) has another strong option at tight end, so even though Minnesota has just two wide receivers in the Top 31-50 range (Mike Wallace, Chales Johnson) the Vikings are also not worth discussing here. Arizona is another team in this category, but they have three wide recievers in the Top 31-50 range (Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown) plus their offense rarely uses the tight end as a receiver, so we can scratch the Cardinals off the consideration list too. Buffalo and the Jets both have murky passing games and tight ends well off of the ADP list, so we will omit those teams as well. That leaves two teams that have good talent at the tight end position, so let’s take a quick spin around this group:
- San Francicso – Finally a team with just one true tight end to discuss. The 49ers are trying to get their team back in order after a ton of change from the top on down, starting with a new head coach in Jim Tomsula, who replaces Jim Harbaugh. Gone on offense is Michael Crabtree, but he is now replaced by Torrey Smith. The offense will undergo some dynamic changes to try and get Colin Kaepernick back to performing at a QB1 level again, which might be music to tight end Vernon Davis' ears. Back in 2013, Kaepernick connected with Davis for outstanding numbers (52 catches, 850 yards and 13 touchdowns). Should Davis establish himself as a go-to target in the end zone again, he represents a ton of value at his current ADP of TE20 (157-161 overall).
- Baltimore – Here we are back with a group of question marks at the tight end spot. Joe Flacco loves to get the ball to a big tight end, but ever since Dennis Pitta was lost for his second hip injury, the position has remained very murky for Baltimore. Currently Crockett Gilmore occupies the top spot on the depth chart while Pitta is on the PUP list. Rookie Maxx Williams is trying to learn the position at the NFL level as quickly as possible, and his athletic ability reminds several experts of a young Jason Witten - but he seems to be not ready for prime time this year. If Pitta can get back to full health, he appears to be the best option of this group, but the safe play is to avoid Baltimore's tight end this season.
Bottom line from Category 3: Vernon Davis is a solid option in Round 13 and whoever gets the starting nod for the Ravens is worth a late round pick. The best option appears to be Davis from this group unless Dennis Pitta returns to full strength.
If you are waiting this season to pick up a tight end later in your draft or even just looking for a good second (or third) option, take a longer look at the guys outlined here. Values exist at TE outside of the Top 10-12 names that are going to go in the first half of your fantasy drafts, so do not overlook the later guys who can help your team get those extra points and win a few more games this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.